Tuesday, May 1, 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 17:56:04.6391836

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN IND

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 218...

VALID 012255Z - 020000Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 218 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SHORT-TERM TORNADO THREAT MAY BE MAXIMIZED OVER W-CNTRL
IND. OTHERWISE...SVR WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF WW 218.

DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 22Z SHOWS AN AREA OF WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SITUATED OVER E-CNTRL IL...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SEWD
INTO SERN IND...AND THEN EWD ACROSS SRN OH. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
GUIDANCE INDICATES AXIS OF HIGHEST SURFACE THETA-E VALUES EXTEND NWD
OUT OF SRN IL INTO W-CNTRL IND. IN ADDITION...0-1 KM SRH IS
MAXIMIZED ALONG AND TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE WARM FRONT OVER W-CNTRL
INTO CNTRL IND. THUS...SUPERCELL MOVING E-SEWD ALONG WARM FRONT OVER
W-CNTRL IND SHOULD POSE THE GREATEST THREAT FOR TORNADOES IN THE
SHORT-TERM. OTHER CLUSTERS OF STORMS FORMING SEWD ALONG THE FRONT IN
IND WILL POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND
PERHAPS A TORNADO.

..GARNER.. 05/01/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...

LAT...LON 40478752 40488710 40568710 40568677 40738676 40728637
40448637 40358624 39938624 39948559 40088560 40088522
39808521 39188544 38938543 38718531 38348564 38388668
38528673 38538729 38418777 38718752 39138767 39388752
40478752