Test Message 11:00:54.3925745

THIS IS THE WEEKLY TEST OF THE WXWARN1 ALERT SYSTEM THIS IS ONLY A TEST

Watch County Notification 20:55:41.7458758

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS CANCELLED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH 311 FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN ILLINOIS THIS CANCELS 11 COUNTIES

IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS

DE KALB LA SALLE LEE

IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS

COOK DUPAGE GRUNDY
KANE KENDALL LAKE IL
MCHENRY WILL

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...AURORA...CHICAGO...DEKALB...DIXON...
JOLIET...MORRIS...OSWEGO...OTTAWA...WAUKEGAN...
WHEATON AND WOODSTOCK.

Watch County Notification 18:05:59.6450741

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
311 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
AREAS

IN ILLINOIS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 14 COUNTIES

IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS

BOONE DE KALB LA SALLE
LEE OGLE WINNEBAGO

IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS

COOK DUPAGE GRUNDY
KANE KENDALL LAKE IL
MCHENRY WILL

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...AURORA...BELVIDERE...CHICAGO...
DEKALB...DIXON...JOLIET...MORRIS...OREGON...OSWEGO...OTTAWA...
ROCKFORD...WAUKEGAN...WHEATON AND WOODSTOCK.

Special Weather Statement 17:08:09.6107211

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 504 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM NEAR LAKEWOOD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
40 MPH.

ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL...WINDS GREATER THAN 40 MPH...OCCASIONAL
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BULL VALLEY... LAKE IN THE HILLS... LAKEWOOD...
ALGONQUIN... WOODSTOCK... PRAIRIE GROVE...
HOLIDAY HILLS... OAKWOOD HILLS... MCHENRY...

THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS MAY ALSO BE IMPACTED...
CHAIN O LAKES STATE PARK...COLLEGE OF LAKE COUNTY...ILLINOIS BEACH
STATE PARK...LAKE COUNTY ILLINOIS FAIRGROUNDS...MCHENRY COUNTY
COLLEGE...AND MCHENRY COUNTY FAIRGROUNDS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO BLOW
AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES. SEEK
SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 4250 8780 4249 8779 4239 8780 4234 8782
4215 8826 4215 8834 4228 8847 4250 8822
TIME...MOT...LOC 2207Z 234DEG 36KT 4227 8829

Mesoscale Discussion 17:02:24.6073056

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME ERN IA THROUGH NRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 282159Z - 282330Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS DEVELOPING FROM ERN IA INTO NRN IL WILL POSE A
THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL THIS EVENING. WW
ISSUANCE WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS...AND IF STORMS
CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...A SEVERE TSTM WATCH
MAY BE NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...RECENT TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR STORMS TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE WITHIN ZONE OF FRONTAL CONVERGENCE FROM ERN IA...EXTREME
NWRN IL AND CNTRL WI. DOWNSTREAM THE WARM SECTOR IS MODERATELY
UNSTABLE OVER NRN IL WITH 2000-2500 J/KG MLCAPE AND 7.5 C/KM 700-500
MB LAPSE RATES. LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE VEERED AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH
IS SERVING TO LIMIT CONVERGENCE TO SOME DEGREE. ALOFT A WEAK IMPULSE
WAS INDICATED ON THE RAPID REFRESH ANALYSIS LIFTING NEWD THROUGH IA.
NEVERTHELESS...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED TO AROUND 90
CONTRIBUTING TO A RELATIVELY WEAK CAP...AND STORMS MAY CONTINUE
DEVELOPING AS THE FRONT ADVANCES INTO NRN IL. WHILE SHEAR IN THE
WARM SECTOR IS WEAK...STRONGER FLOW ALOFT HAS OVERTAKEN THE FRONTAL
ZONE RESULTING IN 35-40 KT UNIDIRECTIONAL EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. BOTH MULTICELL LINE SEGMENTS AND POSSIBLY SOME SUPERCELL
MODES MAY OCCUR.

..DIAL/HART.. 05/28/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...DVN...

LAT...LON 41509100 42408990 42278799 40858926 40519187 41509100

Mesoscale Discussion 16:30:03.5880897

AREAS AFFECTED...MN....WI...MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 308...309...

VALID 282058Z - 282230Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
308...309...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SCATTERED STRONG TO OCCASIONALLY SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE
ACROSS WATCHES 308 AND 309. CONVECTION DOES APPEAR TO TAKING ON MORE
LINEAR CHARACTER AND EXPECT WIND AND HAIL POTENTIAL TO CONTINUE IN
PORTIONS OF BOTH WATCHES INTO THE EVENING.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION ACROSS WI HAS STRUGGLED TO ATTAIN MORE VIGOR
THIS AFTERNOON BUT A FEW STORMS HAVE INTENSIFIED RECENTLY AND WIND
AND HAIL SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT. FARTHER WEST...IN WATCH
309...RECENT TRENDS SUGGEST STORMS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND ACROSS
CNTRL MN HAVE WEAKENED SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...LARGE SCALE FORCING AND
SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PERSISTENCE. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
MAY SPREAD INTO THE WRN PORTIONS OF WATCH 308 DURING THE EVENING
WITH SOME CHANCE FOR HAIL AND WIND CONTINUING.

..CARBIN.. 05/28/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...DLH...ARX...
MPX...

LAT...LON 46518632 46658534 45738605 43578723 42448705 42459048
42559106 43519062 44389033 44489496 45029529 45759514
45779437 46419407 46469316 46739311 46759244 47019055
46579072 46298985 46228904 46428895 46518632

Mesoscale Discussion 12:01:50.4287689

AREAS AFFECTED...IA..WI...IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY

VALID 281700Z - 281800Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO AREAS OF EXTREME ERN IA...MUCH OF WI...AND
NRN IL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A WATCH IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME OR
MOST OF THESE AREAS WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

DISCUSSION...STRONG ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
INTO ERN MN AND IA WILL LIKELY AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY SITUATED FROM WRN WI SWWD INTO NERN
IA. AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITH HEATING
OF THE DAY AND SURFACE-BASED CAPE IS CURRENTLY NEARING 1000 J/KG IN
SOME LOCATIONS. A WIDE ARRAY OF MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A
REMARKABLY CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT AND INCREASING
COVERAGE OF DEEP CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN AND ERN
WI...THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MODEL SIGNAL IS LIKELY A RESULT OF
FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT MOVING INTO THE REGION AND
A LACK OF STRONGER INHIBITION THAN WHAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE IN RECENT
DAYS.

AMBIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 40KT WITHIN THE SERN FLANK OF THE LARGE
UPPER LOW TO THE WEST WILL SUPPORT INCREASING STORM ORGANIZATION
WITH SUPERCELLS AND BOWING LINE SEGMENTS POTENTIALLY EVOLVING WITH
TIME. LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGER STORMS LATER TODAY.

..CARBIN.. 05/28/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...DLH...ARX...

LAT...LON 44159089 44949062 45459001 45808920 45568804 44598754
43768771 42898837 42078983 42279097 43049146 44159089

Flood Statement 11:03:00.3938220

...THE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR
CENTRAL BOONE AND NORTHERN MCHENRY COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

EXCESS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE ADVISORY AREA.
STREAMS AND CREEKS IN THE ADVISORY AREA HAVE RECEDED...ENDING THE
FLOOD THREAT. IF FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED...PLEASE REPORT IT TO
YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

LAT...LON 4227 8830 4223 8894 4246 8894 4248 8828

Flood Statement 09:41:37.3454803

...URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
CENTRAL BOONE AND NORTHERN MCHENRY COUNTIES UNTIL NOON CDT...

AT 925 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT PRODUCED THE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE
ADVISORY AREA EARLIER THIS MORNING HAVE PUSHED EAST OF THE
AREA...HOWEVER ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REDEVELOPED
ACROSS THE AREA. HOURLY RAINFALL RATES FROM THE CURRENT
THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN AROUND 1 INCH. RUNOFF FROM
EARLIER RAINFALL MAY CONTINUE...AND MAY BECOME ENHANCED WITH THE
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THAT IS OCCURRING AT THIS TIME. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STEADILY PUSH EAST ACROSS THE WARNED AREA...AND
EVENTUALLY COME TO AN END BY 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...

BELVIDERE... HARVARD... WONDER LAKE...
WOODSTOCK... BULL VALLEY... CAPRON...
HEBRON... MCCULLOM LAKE... POPLAR GROVE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 4227 8830 4223 8894 4246 8894 4248 8828

Mesoscale Discussion 06:32:13.2329766

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NERN IA...SRN WI...NRN IL

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL

VALID 261131Z - 261300Z

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY PERSIST
THROUGH MID MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN/NORTHERN
ILLINOIS. SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS BEEN GENERALLY WEAKENING IN
INTENSITY...BUT SOME MODEL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE NCEP SREF...MAY
BE A BIT QUICK WITH DIMINISHMENT/DISSIPATION OF ACTIVITY THIS
MORNING. THE TRAILING EDGE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK IMPULSE/ CYCLONIC VORTICITY CENTER IS IN THE PROCESS OF
SHIFTING EAST SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF NORTHEAST IOWA...LIKELY ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY 14-15Z. THIS MAY CONTINUE
TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE MAINTENANCE OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MID MORNING. SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW...
BUT PERSISTENT/TRAINING STORMS...IN A NEAR SATURATED ENVIRONMENT
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES...COULD STILL YIELD
HEAVY TO LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN A CORRIDOR WEST SOUTHWEST
THROUGH SOUTH OF MADISON...INTO LAKE MICHIGAN COASTAL AREAS BETWEEN
CHICAGO AND MILWAUKEE.

..KERR.. 05/26/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...

LAT...LON 43299010 43048884 42888770 42508763 42168847 42338906
42639018 42749126 43299010

Flood Statement 05:51:41.2088998

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
BOONE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
NORTHERN MCHENRY COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL NOON CDT

* AT 549 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. DOPPLER
RADAR ESTIMATED TWO TO THREE INCHES OF PRECIPITATION HAS FALLEN
OVER PORTIONS OF BOONE AND MCHENRY COUNTIES.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING TO
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY ALONG SMALL STREAMS AND NEAR LOW WATER
CROSSINGS. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING
INCLUDE...BELVIDERE...HARVARD...WONDER LAKE...WOODSTOCK...BULL
VALLEY...CAPRON...HEBRON...MCCULLOM LAKE...POPLAR GROVE AND
RICHMOND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 4227 8830 4223 8894 4246 8894 4248 8828

Non-Precipitation Watch, Warning, Advisory 20:00:23.7130277

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

THE WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO ABATE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ARE STILL POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

Red Flag Warning 19:53:28.7089192

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM CDT /9 PM EDT/ THIS
EVENING FOR LOW HUMIDITY AND STRONG WINDS FOR NORTHERN ILLINOIS
AND NORTHWEST INDIANA...

RELATIVE HUMIDITY HAS INCREASED ACROSS THE AREA. ALTHOUGH WINDS
WILL REMAIN GUSTY THIS EVENING...THE SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER
THREAT HAS ENDED.

Special Weather Statement 16:59:02.6053058

...BLOWING DUST MAY CAUSE DRAMATICALLY REDUCE VISIBILITY...

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 45 MPH WILL CAUSE AREAS
OF BLOWING DUST WHICH MAY DRAMATICALLY REDUCE VISIBILITY OVER
SHORT DISTANCES. VISIBILITY NEAR ZERO HAS BEEN REPORTED ON
INTERSTATE 88 IN KANE COUNTY. OTHER LOCALIZED AREAS OF NEAR ZERO
VISIBILITY MAY OCCUR NEAR DRY OPEN FIELDS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS INTO THE EVENING. MOTORISTS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR
RAPIDLY CHANGING VISIBILITY.

Non-Precipitation Watch, Warning, Advisory 16:46:34.5979005

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

* TIMING...THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY AROUND SUNSET.

* WINDS...SOUTH SUSTAINED 20 TO 30 MPH...GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH.

* IMPACTS...BLOWING DUST MAY DRAMATICALLY REDUCE VISIBILITY OVER
SHORT DISTANCES. VISIBILITY NEAR ZERO HAS BEEN REPORTED ALONG
SECTIONS OF INTERSTATE 88 IN KANE COUNTY. LOOSE ITEMS MAY BE
BLOWN AROUND BY STRONG WINDS. SMALL LIMBS AND BRANCHES MAY BE
BROKEN. HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES MAY EXPERIENCE DIFFICULTY
ESPECIALLY ON EAST WEST ROADS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 39 MPH...OR
GUSTS BETWEEN 45 AND 57 MPH...ARE LIKELY. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN
CAUSE MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE UNLESS PRECAUTIONS ARE TAKEN. DRIVING
MAY BE DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. MOTORISTS
SHOULD BE ALERT AND USE CAUTION.

&&

Red Flag Warning 15:34:56.5553504

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT /9 PM EDT/
THIS EVENING FOR LOW HUMIDITY AND STRONG WINDS FOR NORTHERN
ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA...

* AFFECTED AREA...NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA.

* WINDS...SOUTH 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH NORTHERN ILLINOIS...
AND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH NORTHWEST INDIANA

* TIMING...THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AS LOW AS 25 PERCENT.

* IMPACTS...SMALL FIRES COULD EASILY SPREAD AND BECOME WILDFIRES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

&&

Non-Precipitation Watch, Warning, Advisory 15:30:25.5526675

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

* TIMING...THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY AROUND SUNSET.

* WINDS...SOUTH SUSTAINED 20 TO 30 MPH...GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH.

* IMPACTS...LOOSE ITEMS MAY BE BLOWN AROUND BY STRONG WINDS.
SMALL LIMBS AND BRANCHES MAY BE BROKEN. HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES
MAY EXPERIENCE DIFFICULTY ESPECIALLY ON EAST WEST ROADS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 39 MPH...OR
GUSTS BETWEEN 45 AND 57 MPH...ARE LIKELY. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN
CAUSE MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE UNLESS PRECAUTIONS ARE TAKEN. DRIVING
MAY BE DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. MOTORISTS
SHOULD BE ALERT AND USE CAUTION.

&&

Public Severe Weather Outlook 11:38:49.4150971

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES EXPECTED
OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

NORTHEASTERN IOWA
FAR NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS
A SMALL PART OF THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN
FAR SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA
MUCH OF WISCONSIN

ELSEWHERE...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM...PORTIONS OF THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES SOUTHWESTWARD INTO
KANSAS AND MISSOURI.

AN INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG
A FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO ONTARIO CANADA
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH OF THE LOW WILL SURGE
EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN IOWA AND SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA AND
INTO WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...AS A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
STORM SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEASTWARD. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WITHIN
THE WARM AND MODERATELY HUMID AIR MASS NEAR AND JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND TRACK
EASTWARD INTO TONIGHT. ONE OR MORE FAST-MOVING SQUALL LINES WILL
LIKELY ORGANIZE AND BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SWATHS OF WIDESPREAD
DAMAGING WINDS. TORNADOES...AS WELL AS SEVERE HAIL...WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE RELATIVELY MORE ISOLATED FARTHER
SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING THIS DEVELOPING
SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE
WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA
WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER
TODAY.

..WEISS.. 05/24/2012

Non-Precipitation Watch, Warning, Advisory 11:27:50.4085730

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

* TIMING...EARLY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH SUNSET.

* WINDS...SOUTH SUSTAINED 20 TO 30 MPH...GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH.

* IMPACTS...LOOSE ITEMS MAY BE BLOWN AROUND BY STRONG WINDS.
SMALL LIMBS AND BRANCHES MAY BE BROKEN. HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES
MAY EXPERIENCE DIFFICULTY ESPECIALLY ON EAST WEST ROADS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 39 MPH...OR
GUSTS BETWEEN 45 AND 57 MPH...ARE LIKELY. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN
CAUSE MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE UNLESS PRECAUTIONS ARE TAKEN. DRIVING
MAY BE DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. MOTORISTS
SHOULD BE ALERT AND USE CAUTION.

&&

Red Flag Warning 10:56:41.3900699

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT /9 PM EDT/ THIS
EVENING FOR LOW HUMIDITY AND STRONG WINDS FOR NORTHERN ILLINOIS
AND NORTHWEST INDIANA...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR LOW HUMIDITY AND STRONG WINDS...WHICH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 8 PM CDT /9 PM EDT/ THIS EVENING.

* AFFECTED AREA...NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA.

* WINDS...SOUTH 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH OVER ILLINOIS
AND SOUTH 15 TO 25 WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH OVER INDIANA.

* TIMING...THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AS LOW AS 25 PERCENT.

* IMPACTS...SMALL FIRES COULD EASILY SPREAD AND BECOME WILDFIRES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

&&

Public Severe Weather Outlook 06:47:46.2422134

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES EXPECTED
OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

NORTHEASTERN IOWA
FAR NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS
A SMALL PART OF THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN
FAR SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA
MUCH OF WISCONSIN

ELSEWHERE...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM...PORTIONS OF THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES SOUTHWESTWARD INTO
KANSAS AND MISSOURI.

INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A
FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO ONTARIO CANADA
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH OF THE LOW WILL
SURGE EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN IOWA AND SOUTHEASTERN
MINNESOTA AND INTO WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...AS A
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEASTWARD. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP WITHIN THE WARM AND MODERATELY HUMID AIR MASS NEAR AND
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND TRACK EASTWARD INTO TONIGHT. ONE OR MORE FAST-MOVING
SQUALL LINES WILL LIKELY ORGANIZE AND BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SWATHS
OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS. TORNADOES...AS WELL AS SEVERE
HAIL...WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE RELATIVELY MORE
ISOLATED FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING THIS DEVELOPING
SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE
WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA
WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER
TODAY.

..COHEN.. 05/24/2012

Non-Precipitation Watch, Warning, Advisory 04:18:51.1537568

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT
THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM
CDT THIS EVENING.

* TIMING...EARLY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH SUNSET.

* WINDS...SOUTH SUSTAINED NEAR 30 MPH...GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH.

* IMPACTS...LOOSE ITEMS MAY BE BLOWN AROUND BY STRONG WINDS.
SMALL LIMBS AND BRANCHES MAY BE BROKEN. HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES
MAY EXPERIENCE DIFFICULTY ESPECIALLY ON EAST WEST ROADS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 39 MPH...OR
GUSTS BETWEEN 45 AND 57 MPH...ARE LIKELY. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN
CAUSE MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE UNLESS PRECAUTIONS ARE TAKEN. DRIVING
MAY BE DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. MOTORISTS
SHOULD BE ALERT AND USE CAUTION.

&&

Flood Potential Outlook 13:15:30.4725269

...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE...AHPS...ENABLES
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...NWS...TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE
PROBABILISTIC RIVER OUTLOOKS...

THE VALUES IN THE TABLE BELOW ARE VALID 5/28/2012 - 8/26/2012

IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE
THE CHANCE THAT A LOCATION ON A RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED
STAGE LEVELS IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS.

FOR EXAMPLE: THE KANKAKEE RIVER AT DUNNS BRIDGE HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF
10 FEET. WITHIN THE NEXT 90 DAYS...THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE
THE RIVER WILL RISE ABOVE 8.5 FEET.

LOCATION FS (FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
-------- ------- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
KANKAKEE RIVER
DUNNS BRIDGE 10.0 3.5 4.4 4.8 5.1 5.5 5.9 6.5 7.6 8.5
KOUTS 11.0 4.5 5.3 5.8 6.1 6.5 6.9 7.5 8.7 9.7
SHELBY 9.0 5.3 5.9 6.3 6.9 7.3 8.0 8.7 10.2 12.2
MOMENCE 5.0 2.0 2.3 2.5 2.7 3.1 3.4 4.1 4.5 6.7
WILMINGTON 6.5 1.9 2.1 2.4 2.7 3.1 3.6 4.4 5.2 5.9

SUGAR CREEK
MILFORD 18.0 6.1 7.7 8.4 11.2 12.4 16.6 17.9 19.1 20.5

IROQUOIS RIVER
RENSSELAER 12.0 4.5 5.3 6.3 7.3 7.7 8.1 9.0 10.0 12.0
FORESMAN 18.0 7.5 8.9 10.0 11.4 12.2 13.3 13.9 14.6 17.2
IROQUOIS 18.0 7.3 8.4 9.8 11.7 13.0 14.2 14.9 17.6 22.0
CHEBANSE 16.0 4.8 5.4 6.7 7.4 7.6 8.5 9.6 11.0 15.8

DES PLAINES RIVER
RUSSELL 7.0 3.0 3.7 4.0 4.5 5.0 6.0 6.3 6.6 7.4
GURNEE 7.0 1.9 2.1 2.6 2.7 3.0 3.6 4.0 5.2 6.1
DES PLAINES 5.0 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.5 4.0
LINCOLNSHIRE 12.5 6.9 7.2 7.5 7.9 8.2 8.5 9.1 10.1 11.1
RIVERSIDE 7.0 3.4 3.8 4.0 4.3 4.9 5.3 5.7 6.0 6.7

FOX RIVER
ALGONQUIN TAILW 9.5 5.7 6.2 6.5 7.0 7.4 7.6 8.2 9.1 10.9
MONTGOMERY 13.0 11.5 11.7 11.8 12.1 12.3 12.6 12.8 13.0 13.4
DAYTON 12.0 6.4 6.5 7.2 7.8 8.5 9.1 9.8 10.5 11.9

EAST BR DU PAGE RIVER
BOLINGBROOK 19.5 17.2 17.8 18.2 18.7 19.0 19.2 19.8 20.2 21.1

DU PAGE RIVER
SHOREWOOD 6.5 3.6 4.0 4.2 4.5 4.8 5.0 5.5 5.9 7.3

MAZON RIVER
COAL CITY 12.0 2.3 3.7 5.3 7.0 7.6 8.8 9.5 10.3 12.1

VERMILION RIVER
PONTIAC 14.0 4.0 4.6 5.1 5.5 6.3 6.9 7.5 9.3 11.5
LEONORE 16.0 5.2 6.3 7.5 8.3 9.0 9.8 11.4 12.4 15.8

THORN CREEK
THORNTON 10.0 3.7 4.3 4.9 5.3 5.7 6.7 7.4 9.0 10.7

HART DITCH
DYER 12.0 3.2 3.6 4.1 4.6 4.8 5.2 6.1 7.3 8.2

LITTLE CALUMET RIVER
MUNSTER 12.0 8.3 9.0 9.4 9.9 10.6 11.1 11.6 14.2 18.2
SOUTH HOLLAND 16.5 7.9 8.9 9.3 9.9 10.5 11.2 11.8 13.1 13.9

ILLINOIS RIVER
MORRIS 16.0 5.8 6.3 7.2 8.2 8.9 9.7 11.7 13.8 18.8
OTTAWA 463.0

LA SALLE 20.0 12.2 12.6 13.7 14.8 16.0 17.0 19.1 20.5 25.3

KISHWAUKEE RIVER
BELVIDERE 9.0 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.4 3.6 4.2 4.9 6.0 8.3
PERRYVILLE 12.0 6.3 6.6 7.2 7.4 8.1 8.6 9.7 10.9 13.9

SOUTH BRANCH KISHWAUKEE RIVER
DE KALB 10.0 3.7 4.2 4.5 4.7 5.4 5.8 6.6 7.4 8.9

ROCK RIVER
ROCKTON 10.0 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.4 4.6 5.2 6.0 7.4 9.0
LATHAM PARK 10.0 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.9 5.1 5.6 6.3 7.3 8.7
ROCKFORD 9.0 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.3 3.5 4.2
BYRON 13.0 6.5 6.5 6.6 7.1 7.6 8.2 9.1 9.6 13.3
DIXON 16.0 8.9 8.9 9.0 9.4 9.7 10.3 11.2 13.3 15.6

PECATONICA RIVER
SHIRLAND 12.0 4.7 5.4 5.7 6.0 6.3 7.0 7.6 10.6 12.6

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO OFFICE IN ROMEOVILLE ISSUES LONG
RANGE AHPS OUTLOOKS FOR ALL RIVER FORECAST LOCATIONS. THIS PRODUCT IS
UPDATED MONTHLY AROUND MID-MONTH. THESE OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED IN
ADDITION TO THE 5 DAY RIVER FORECASTS THAT ARE ISSUED WHEN RIVER
FORECAST LOCATIONS ARE IN FLOOD OR FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE.

THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER...
SOIL MOISTURE...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION.

BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILISTIC NUMBERS...THE LEVEL
OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE
DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE.

VISIT OUR WEB PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO FOR MORE WEATHER AND RIVER
INFORMATION INCLUDING GRAPHS OF PROBABILISTIC RIVER OUTLOOKS.

Test Message 11:00:53.3925647

THIS IS THE WEEKLY TEST OF THE WXWARN1 ALERT SYSTEM THIS IS ONLY A TEST

Special Weather Statement 17:59:35.6412725

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 556 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR HARVARD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HARVARD... HEBRON... WONDER LAKE...
RICHMOND... MCCULLOM LAKE...


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL BRANCHES TO BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOOSE
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS
TREES. HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO STANDING WATER ON ROADWAYS AND
POOR VISIBILITY. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THESE
STORMS HAVE PASSED.

LAT...LON 4250 8829 4236 8829 4227 8864 4250 8866
TIME...MOT...LOC 2259Z 246DEG 23KT 4253 8854 4236 8852

Special Weather Statement 17:27:50.6224130

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 526 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM CAPRON TO BELVIDERE...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL...WINDS TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
POPLAR GROVE... BELVIDERE... CAPRON...
HARVARD...

THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS MAY ALSO BE IMPACTED...
BOONE COUNTY FAIRGROUNDS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL BRANCHES TO BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOOSE
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS
TREES. HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO STANDING WATER ON ROADWAYS AND
POOR VISIBILITY. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THESE
STORMS HAVE PASSED.

LAT...LON 4230 8853 4215 8890 4250 8891 4250 8851
TIME...MOT...LOC 2227Z 226DEG 33KT 4249 8879 4226 8877

Severe Weather Statement 16:57:06.6041573

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN LAKE AND MCHENRY
COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 500 PM CDT...

THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE
WARNED AREA.

LAT...LON 4237 8866 4250 8855 4249 8794 4220 8857
TIME...MOT...LOC 2155Z 237DEG 39KT 4267 8809 4255 8800

Severe Weather Statement 16:39:02.5934257

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN DE KALB AND
SOUTHWESTERN MCHENRY COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 445 PM CDT...

THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE
WARNED AREA.

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
NORTHEASTERN MCHENRY COUNTY UNTIL 500 PM.

LAT...LON 4241 8865 4229 8854 4209 8861 4206 8872
4215 8871 4215 8870 4234 8871
TIME...MOT...LOC 2138Z 228DEG 31KT 4245 8849 4238 8843
4221 8847

Severe Weather Statement 16:36:23.5918517

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN
LAKE AND MCHENRY COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM CDT...

AT 430 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH A HISTORY OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM PELL LAKE TO MCCULLOM LAKE...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
FOX LAKE AROUND 440 PM CDT.
LAKE CATHERINE...CHANNEL LAKE AND ANTIOCH AROUND 445 PM CDT.

THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS MAY ALSO BE IMPACTED...
CHAIN O LAKES STATE PARK AND MCHENRY COUNTY FAIRGROUNDS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...LARGE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR
PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME
OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO
AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 4237 8866 4250 8855 4249 8794 4220 8857
TIME...MOT...LOC 2135Z 237DEG 39KT 4255 8834 4243 8825
WIND...HAIL 70MPH 1.00IN

Severe Weather Statement 16:28:29.5871591

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN
DE KALB AND SOUTHWESTERN MCHENRY COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM CDT...

AT 421 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM HARVARD TO MARENGO TO GENOA...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

THIS LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
NORTHERN DEKALB AND SOUTHWESTERN MCHENRY COUNTIES.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...LARGE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR
PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME
OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO
AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 4241 8865 4229 8854 4209 8861 4206 8872
4215 8871 4215 8870 4234 8871
TIME...MOT...LOC 2126Z 228DEG 31KT 4238 8860 4231 8854
4214 8858
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

Severe Weather Statement 16:24:25.5847435

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN
LAKE AND MCHENRY COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM CDT...

AT 417 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM HEBRON TO BULL VALLEY...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

IN ADDITION...AT 400 PM....70 MPH WINDS WERE REPORTED BY A TRAINED
WEATHER SPOTTER IN MARENGO WITH THESE STORMS. FURTHERMORE...QUARTER
SIZED HAIL HAS BEEN REPORTED IN WOODSTOCK.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
SUNNYSIDE...SPRING GROVE...RICHMOND AND PISTAKEE HIGHLANDS AROUND
430 PM CDT.
FOX LAKE AROUND 435 PM CDT.
LAKE CATHERINE...CHANNEL LAKE AND ANTIOCH AROUND 440 PM CDT.

THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS MAY ALSO BE IMPACTED...
CHAIN O LAKES STATE PARK AND MCHENRY COUNTY FAIRGROUNDS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...LARGE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR
PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME
OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO
AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 4249 8794 4220 8857 4239 8869 4250 8858
TIME...MOT...LOC 2121Z 237DEG 39KT 4249 8843 4237 8834
WIND...HAIL 70MPH 1.00IN

Severe Weather Statement 16:12:47.5778333

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN DE
KALB...SOUTHEASTERN BOONE AND SOUTHWESTERN MCHENRY COUNTIES UNTIL 445
PM CDT...

AT 408 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM HARVARD TO MARENGO...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

THIS LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
NORTHERN DE KALB...SOUTHEASTERN BOONE AND SOUTHWESTERN MCHENRY
COUNTIES.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...LARGE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR
PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME
OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO
AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR. FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS.

&&

LAT...LON 4201 8886 4233 8876 4241 8865 4229 8854
4209 8861
TIME...MOT...LOC 2112Z 228DEG 31KT 4240 8859 4233 8853
4223 8856
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16:07:24.5746356

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN LAKE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
MCHENRY COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 500 PM CDT

* AT 404 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM HARVARD TO MARENGO...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
WOODSTOCK AROUND 415 PM CDT.
BULL VALLEY AROUND 420 PM CDT.
HEBRON...WONDER LAKE AND MCHENRY AROUND 425 PM CDT.
MCCULLOM LAKE AROUND 430 PM CDT.
SUNNYSIDE...SPRING GROVE...RICHMOND AND PISTAKEE HIGHLANDS AROUND
435 PM CDT.
FOX LAKE AROUND 440 PM CDT.
LAKE CATHERINE...CHANNEL LAKE AND ANTIOCH AROUND 445 PM CDT.

THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS MAY ALSO BE IMPACTED...
CHAIN O LAKES STATE PARK AND MCHENRY COUNTY FAIRGROUNDS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...LARGE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR
PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME
OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO
AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 4249 8794 4220 8857 4239 8869 4250 8858
TIME...MOT...LOC 2106Z 238DEG 36KT 4237 8863 4225 8854
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

Severe Weather Statement 15:58:38.5694282

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN DE
KALB...SOUTHEASTERN BOONE AND SOUTHWESTERN MCHENRY COUNTIES UNTIL 445
PM CDT...

AT 355 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM BELVIDERE TO 6 MILES WEST OF
MARENGO TO KINGSTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
MARENGO AROUND 410 PM CDT.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...LARGE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR
PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME
OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO
AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 4196 8894 4226 8887 4241 8865 4229 8854
4209 8861
TIME...MOT...LOC 2057Z 228DEG 31KT 4230 8875 4223 8869
4213 8872
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

Mesoscale Discussion 15:51:37.5652603

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN IL THROUGH SERN WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 202050Z - 202215Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AS A LINE
SEGMENT OVER NCNTRL IL. THIS ACTIVITY WILL POSE A RISK FOR DAMAGING
WIND AS IT MOVES INTO NERN IL AND SERN WI. TRENDS ARE BEING
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

DISCUSSION...STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AXIS
HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS A LINE SEGMENT. ACTIVITY IS FORMING
WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY 30-35F BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS...STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
MODERATE /1000-1500 J/KG/ INSTABILITY. THIS ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE
FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY WITH STORMS
THAT HAVE HIGHER REFLECTIVITY CORES ABOVE 5 KM. CONCERN IS THAT AS
STORMS BECOME MORE LINEAR...THE THREAT MAY BECOME A LITTLE MORE
WIDESPREAD.

..DIAL/WEISS.. 05/20/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...

LAT...LON 43078792 42098789 41728814 41868896 43088833 43078792

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 15:41:52.5594688

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN BOONE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
NORTHERN DE KALB COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
SOUTHWESTERN MCHENRY COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
EAST CENTRAL OGLE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 445 PM CDT

* AT 338 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CHERRY
VALLEY TO 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF MALTA...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30
MPH.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
BELVIDERE AND KIRKLAND AROUND 350 PM CDT.
KINGSTON AROUND 400 PM CDT.
GENOA AROUND 405 PM CDT.
MARENGO AROUND 425 PM CDT.

THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS MAY ALSO BE IMPACTED...
BOONE COUNTY FAIRGROUNDS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...LARGE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR
PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME
OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO
AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 4241 8865 4229 8854 4209 8861 4193 8899
4215 8898 4215 8894 4223 8894
TIME...MOT...LOC 2041Z 228DEG 25KT 4219 8889 4201 8891
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

Mesoscale Discussion 13:18:55.4745565

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN WI THROUGH NRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 201817Z - 202015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM SRN WI INTO PARTS OF
NWRN IL BY 20Z. STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG TO
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. WW MIGHT BE NEEDED ONCE THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION APPEARS IMMINENT.

DISCUSSION...THIS AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM WRN WI...ERN
IA INTO NERN MO WITH WEAK PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE BANDS INDICATED
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WARM SECTOR HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE
SUPPORTED BY A PLUME OF STEEPER /7-7.5 C/KM/ LAPSE RATES ABOVE UPPER
50S BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS. PRE-FRONTAL NEAR SFC WINDS HAVE VEERED
TO SSWLY TO THE SOUTH OF A NEWD EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED
OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO WEAKER CONVERGENCE
ALONG COLD FRONT. MOREOVER...DEEPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THIS REGION. THESE FACTORS
MAKE TIMING AND EXTENT OF THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IN THIS AREA
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER
80S...CONVECTIVE INHIBITION SHOULD WEAKEN ENOUGH FOR STORMS TO
DEVELOP WHERE DEEPER BAROCLINIC ZONE INTERACTS WITH THE UNSTABLE
WARM SECTOR. STRONGER FLOW ALOFT ATTENDING THE EJECTING IMPULSE WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THIS REGION WITH DEEP SHEAR GENERALLY AOB 30 KT
SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELLS. NEVERTHELESS...THE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND LARGE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS WILL PROMOTE A
THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL.

..DIAL/WEISS.. 05/20/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...

LAT...LON 43608819 42808789 41928772 41158759 40068903 39549085
40469091 42669002 43678933 43608819

Radar Outage Notification 12:42:50.4531230

NOUS63 KLOT 171742
FTMLOT
Message Date: May 17 2012 17:42:47KLOT WSR-88D RADAR IS BACK ONLINE.

Radar Outage Notification 09:04:10.3232350

NOUS63 KLOT 171403
FTMLOT
Message Date: May 17 2012 14:03:44KLOT WSR-88D RADAR IS GOING OFFLINE FOR PREVENTIVE MAINTENANCE. WILL BE BACK UP SOMETIME MIDDAY.

Test Message 11:00:51.3925449

THIS IS THE WEEKLY TEST OF THE WXWARN1 ALERT SYSTEM THIS IS ONLY A TEST

Severe Weather Statement 19:41:16.7016724

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN MCHENRY COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED
AREA. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH MAY CONTINUE...CAUSING SMALL BRANCHES
TO BE BLOW DOWN...AND LOOSE OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND.

LAT...LON 4208 8829 4212 8821 4215 8817 4215 8793
4215 8788 4182 8805 4200 8843
TIME...MOT...LOC 0039Z 293DEG 32KT 4203 8818

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 19:21:30.6899310

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN COOK COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
NORTHERN DUPAGE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
NORTHERN KANE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
SOUTHEASTERN MCHENRY COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 800 PM CDT

* AT 718 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR GILBERTS...OR 5 MILES WEST
OF SLEEPY HOLLOW...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
ELGIN...EAST DUNDEE AND CARPENTERSVILLE AROUND 730 PM CDT.
WAYNE AROUND 735 PM CDT.
STREAMWOOD...HOFFMAN ESTATES AND BARTLETT AROUND 740 PM CDT.
HANOVER PARK AND SCHAUMBURG AROUND 745 PM CDT.
MEDINAH...ROSELLE...CAROL STREAM AND ROLLING MEADOWS AROUND 750 PM
CDT.
ITASCA AND WOOD DALE AROUND 755 PM CDT.

THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS MAY ALSO BE IMPACTED...
COLLEGE OF DUPAGE...DUPAGE COUNTY FAIRGROUNDS...ELGIN COMMUNITY
COLLEGE...HARPER COLLEGE...SCHAUMBURG BOOMERS BASEBALL AND WHEATON
COLLEGE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR. FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS.

&&

LAT...LON 4218 8820 4215 8820 4215 8793 4215 8788
4182 8805 4205 8854 4221 8846
TIME...MOT...LOC 0021Z 293DEG 32KT 4209 8838
WIND...HAIL 60MPH <.50IN

Special Weather Statement 19:07:24.6815556

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 701 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR HAMPSHIRE...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...BRIEF
MODERATE DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HAMPSHIRE... GILBERTS... SLEEPY HOLLOW...
ELGIN... WEST DUNDEE... EAST DUNDEE...
BARTLETT... WAYNE... STREAMWOOD...

THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS MAY ALSO BE IMPACTED...
ELGIN COMMUNITY COLLEGE...HARPER COLLEGE...KANE COUNTY COUGARS
BALLPARK AND SCHAUMBURG BOOMERS BASEBALL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL BRANCHES TO BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOOSE
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS
TREES. HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO STANDING WATER ON ROADWAYS AND
POOR VISIBILITY. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM
HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 4208 8804 4183 8819 4202 8871 4217 8858
TIME...MOT...LOC 0007Z 289DEG 33KT 4207 8851

Special Weather Statement 19:02:07.6784173

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 656 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM WINTHROP HARBOR TO EAST
DUNDEE...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...BRIEF
MODERATE DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
INVERNESS... LONG GROVE... VERNON HILLS...
KILDEER... NORTH CHICAGO... GREEN OAKS...
FOREST LAKE... BARRINGTON... LAKE ZURICH...

THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS MAY ALSO BE IMPACTED...
COLLEGE OF LAKE COUNTY...GREAT LAKES NAVAL TRAINING CENTER...HARPER
COLLEGE...LAKE COUNTY IL FAIRGROUNDS...LAKE FOREST COLLEGE...LOYOLA
UNIVERSITY AND NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS UNIVERSITY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL BRANCHES TO BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOOSE
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS
TREES. HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO STANDING WATER ON ROADWAYS AND
POOR VISIBILITY. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THESE
STORMS HAVE PASSED.

LAT...LON 4249 8779 4245 8779 4239 8780 4235 8782
4231 8781 4227 8782 4214 8774 4208 8767
4197 8764 4196 8763 4195 8763 4211 8853
4250 8786 4250 8780
TIME...MOT...LOC 0001Z 292DEG 37KT 4244 8764 4204 8819

Special Weather Statement 18:20:10.6534990

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 614 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES NORTH OF LAKE
CATHERINE TO MARENGO...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...BRIEF
MODERATE DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SUNNYSIDE... MCHENRY... LAKE CATHERINE...
CHANNEL LAKE... PISTAKEE HIGHLANDS... BULL VALLEY...
MCCULLOM LAKE... SPRING GROVE... HUNTLEY...

THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS MAY ALSO BE IMPACTED...
CHAIN O LAKES STATE PARK...COLLEGE OF LAKE COUNTY...GREAT LAKES NAVAL
TRAINING CENTER...HARPER COLLEGE...ILLINOIS BEACH STATE PARK...LAKE
COUNTY IL FAIRGROUNDS AND MCHENRY COUNTY COLLEGE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL BRANCHES TO BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOOSE
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS
TREES. HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO STANDING WATER ON ROADWAYS AND
POOR VISIBILITY. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THESE
STORMS HAVE PASSED.

LAT...LON 4250 8780 4245 8779 4227 8782 4200 8765
4212 8871 4250 8841
TIME...MOT...LOC 2319Z 285DEG 38KT 4262 8799 4221 8843

Special Weather Statement 17:55:35.6388965

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 551 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR ROSCOE...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...BRIEF
MODERATE DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ROSCOE... SOUTH BELOIT... MACHESNEY PARK...
LOVES PARK... POPLAR GROVE... CAPRON...
HARVARD... MARENGO... HEBRON...

THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS MAY ALSO BE IMPACTED...
BOONE COUNTY FAIRGROUNDS...ROCK CUT STATE PARK...ROCK VALLEY
COLLEGE...ROCKFORD RIVERHAWKS BASEBALL AND ROCKFORD SPEEDWAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL BRANCHES TO BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOOSE
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS
TREES. HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO STANDING WATER ON ROADWAYS AND
POOR VISIBILITY. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM
HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 4249 8836 4216 8855 4234 8912 4250 8904
TIME...MOT...LOC 2255Z 291DEG 32KT 4243 8894

Mesoscale Discussion 16:59:49.6057710

AREAS AFFECTED...ECNTRL IA...NRN IL...SERN WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 152158Z - 152300Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...GUSTY WINDS MAY BE NOTED WITH STRONGER TSTM CORES THIS
EVENING FROM SRN WI...ACROSS NRN IL INTO SERN IA.

DISCUSSION...STRONG SUNSHINE HAS CONTRIBUTED TO VERY STEEP LAPSE
RATES AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FROM SERN IA INTO SRN WI. SFC
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S ACROSS THIS REGION
BUT DEW POINTS HAVE DROPPED AS BOUNDARY LAYER HAS DEEPENED. MODEL
FORECAST DEW POINTS ACROSS THIS REGION ARE AT LEAST 10 DEG F TOO
HIGH BUT NEAR DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES ARE CONTRIBUTING TO HIGH
BASED CONVECTION WITH BASES LIKELY NEAR 700 MB. ALTHOUGH
INSTABILITY IS FAIRLY WEAK...GIVEN THE DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER IT WOULD
SEEM PLAUSIBLE THAT GUSTY WINDS MAY BE NOTED WITH STRONGER CORES.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS DOWNBURST WINDS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
SUB-SEVERE AND A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

..DARROW/CORFIDI.. 05/15/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...

LAT...LON 42099176 43318870 43008741 42258795 41569118 42099176

Mesoscale Discussion 14:51:40.5296500

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IA / NRN IL / SRN WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 151951Z - 152045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLD-WIDELY SCTD STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP 21-00Z. SOME
RISK FOR GUSTY WINDS MAY DEVELOP WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT WILL SEEMINGLY BE LIMITED BY QUALITY OF MOISTURE /LACK
THEREOF/...RENDERING THE PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE LOWER THAN
PERCEIVED EARLIER. THE SLIGHT RISK WILL BE DOWNGRADED TO A SEE TEXT
HIGHLIGHT FOR THE UPCOMING 20Z CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CLUMPING CU FIELD
ALONG THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30 MI N DSM INTO NERN IA. STRONG
SURFACE HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS YIELDED TEMPS IN THE
MID-UPPER 80S AND 40-50 DEG TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS. OF
NOTE...VARIOUS MORNING MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN OVERLY AGGRESSIVE
REGARDING THE QUALITY OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA.
OBSERVED GPS PW/S IN FAR ERN IA NEAR THE IL BORDER AND OVER NERN IA
/0.4 TO 0.5 INCH --RESPECTIVELY/...ARE 0.25-0.5 INCH LOWER THAN
VARIOUS OPERATIONAL MODELS. AS SUCH...UPDRAFTS WILL SEEMINGLY BE
INHIBITED TO A DEGREE BY DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT...DESPITE FRONTAL
FORCING AIDING IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WITH ONLY WEAK
INSTABILITY /A FEW HUNDRED J/KG SBCAPE/...STORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY
REMAIN ISOLD TO WIDELY SCTD...YIELDING PERHAPS A FEW STRONG WIND
GUSTS.

..SMITH/HART.. 05/15/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...

LAT...LON 42109250 43398888 42788802 41838802 40979204 41349268
42109250

Radar Outage Notification 12:12:29.4350951

NOUS63 KLOT 111710
FTMLOT
Message Date: May 11 2012 17:10:34KLOT WSR-88D RADAR IS ONLINE.

Radar Outage Notification 10:15:48.3657852

NOUS63 KLOT 111514
FTMLOT
Message Date: May 11 2012 15:14:06KLOT WSR-88D RADAR IS GOING OFFLINE FOR CORRECTIVE MAINTENANCE.

Radar Outage Notification 15:41:55.5594985

NOUS63 KLOT 102041
FTMLOT
Message Date: May 10 2012 20:41:13KLOT WSR-88D RADAR IS BACK ONLINE.

Radar Outage Notification 11:03:14.3939606

NOUS63 KLOT 101602
FTMLOT
Message Date: May 10 2012 16:02:23KLOT WSR-88D RADAR WILL BE DOWN FOR MAINTENANCE. WE SHOULD BE BACK UP LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

Test Message 11:00:49.3925251

THIS IS THE WEEKLY TEST OF THE WXWARN1 ALERT SYSTEM THIS IS ONLY A TEST

Non-Precipitation Watch, Warning, Advisory 04:08:12.1474307

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS CANCELLED THE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY.

SOME DENSE FOG MAY CONTINUE ALONG THE INDIANA STATE BORDER WITH
COOK AND WILL COUNTY FOR A SHORT TIME BEFORE DISSIPATING.

Non-Precipitation Watch, Warning, Advisory 00:16:30.98009.59

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM CDT /9 AM EDT/ THIS
MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM CDT /9 AM EDT/ THIS
MORNING.

* VISIBILITY...LESS THAN A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...VISIBILITY MAY CHANGE RAPIDLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES
MAKING TRAVEL HAZARDOUS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MEANS VISIBILITIES WILL FREQUENTLY BE
REDUCED TO LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE. IF DRIVING...SLOW DOWN...
USE YOUR HEADLIGHTS...AND LEAVE PLENTY OF DISTANCE AHEAD OF YOU.

&&

Radar Outage Notification 15:53:08.5661612

NOUS63 KLOT 072050
FTMLOT
Message Date: May 07 2012 20:50:40KLOT WSR-88D RADAR IS BACK ONLINE.

Radar Outage Notification 15:10:35.5408865

NOUS63 KLOT 072009
FTMLOT
Message Date: May 07 2012 20:09:19KLOT WSR-88D RADAR IS GOING OFF LINE FOR A FEW MINUTES FOR RPG REBOOT.

Flash Flood Watch 07:04:29.2521430

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS EXPIRED...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS AND INDIANA HAS
EXPIRED. AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 FOR ONGOING FLOODING FROM OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...WHILE
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...NO ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINFALL OR FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED.

Flash Flood Watch 21:15:40.7577459

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM CDT /8 AM EDT/
MONDAY...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS AND INDIANA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING
AREAS...IN ILLINOIS...BOONE...COOK...DE KALB...DUPAGE...FORD...
GRUNDY...IROQUOIS...KANE...KANKAKEE...KENDALL...LA SALLE...
LAKE IL...LEE...LIVINGSTON...MCHENRY...OGLE...WILL AND
WINNEBAGO. IN INDIANA...BENTON...JASPER...LAKE IN...NEWTON AND
PORTER.

* UNTIL 7 AM CDT /8 AM EDT/ MONDAY.

* SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS.
THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 AND 2 AND A HALF
INCHES PROBABLE...AND ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

* FLOODING OF CREEKS...STREAMS...LOW LYING AREAS...ROADS...AND
URBANIZED AREAS IS POSSIBLE IF THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
MATERIALIZE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

Mesoscale Discussion 17:08:32.6109487

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN/E-CNTRL IL...W-CNTRL IND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 258...

VALID 062207Z - 062300Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 258
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SLOW-MOVING TSTM CLUSTER OVER NERN/E-CNTRL IL MAY
PROPAGATE SEWD INTO PORTIONS OF W-CNTRL IND...SE OF WW 258. THIS
AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTM WATCH ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...TSTM CLUSTER APPROACHING THE I-74 CORRIDOR IN E-CNTRL
IL IS GRADUALLY DEVELOPING SEWD ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT
ANALYZED FROM NEAR LAF TO LUK. CORES HAVE ALSO STRENGTHENED ALONG A
REMNANT OUTFLOW/WEAK CONFLUENCE AXIS EXTENDING SWD THROUGH ERN IL.
ON THE FRINGE OF STRONG INSTABILITY WITH MODIFIED 18Z ILX RAOB
SUGGESTIVE OF MLCAPE AROUND 3500 J/KG...BUT MODEST DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR...STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE COLD POOL MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO
MAINTAIN THE CLUSTER EVOLVING INTO W-CNTRL IND. BUT WITH CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW ALREADY SURGING 10-15 NM AHEAD OF THE WRN PORTION OF THE
CLUSTER...PRIMARY THREATS SHOULD REMAIN LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH LEADING CONVECTION.

..GRAMS.. 05/06/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...

LAT...LON 40928787 40928733 40768682 40508648 40038627 39398661
39148714 39148759 39308791 39458796 40588804 40928787

Mesoscale Discussion 15:56:56.5684184

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IL TO NRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 258...

VALID 062056Z - 062200Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 258
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...AN EXPANDING CLUSTER OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SPREAD
ACROSS NRN IL INTO NWRN IND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHER ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST SWWD INTO MO AS WELL.

DISCUSSION...MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS HAVE EVOLVED ALONG
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT IS DRAPED ACROSS NRN IL...AT TIMES SEVERAL OF
THESE STRUCTURES HAVE EXHIBITED SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS. EVEN SO
STORM MERGERS ARE RESULTING IN AN EXPANDING CORRIDOR OF CONVECTION
THAT COULD EVOLVE INTO AN MCS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD/DEVELOP
SLOWLY ESEWD INTO EXTREME NWRN IND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

FARTHER SW...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE OUTFLOW ACROSS NRN MO.

..DARROW.. 05/06/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...

LAT...LON 40039414 41858759 40138758 38299413 40039414

Flash Flood Watch 15:31:49.5534991

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
BOONE...DE KALB...LA SALLE...LEE...OGLE AND WINNEBAGO. IN
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...COOK...DUPAGE...GRUNDY...KANE...KENDALL...
LAKE IL...MCHENRY AND WILL.

* THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

* SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THESE WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH STORM TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 AND 2 AND A HALF INCHES
PROBABLE...AND ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

* FLOODING OF CREEKS...STREAMS...LOW LYING AREAS...ROADS...AND
URBANIZED AREAS IS POSSIBLE IF THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
MATERIALIZE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

Mesoscale Discussion 13:23:22.4771998

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MO...WRN/NRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 061822Z - 061915Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE
ALONG AN OUTFLOW/FRONTAL ZONE THAT STRETCHES FROM NRN IL INTO NRN MO
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

DISCUSSION...STRONG HEATING IS CONTRIBUTING TO A VERY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 3000-4000 J/KG ACROSS MO
INTO CNTRL IL. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY
STRONG...IT APPEARS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY
LIKELY ALONG AN EXTENSIVE OUTFLOW/FRONTAL ZONE THAT STRETCHES FROM
NRN IL...INTO NRN MO. RECENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS ZONE
JUST EAST OF MCI AND EAST OF MLI SUGGEST A MORE FAVORABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER FOR ROBUST UPDRAFTS. WITH AN EXPANDING WARM SECTOR CU FIELD
IT APPEARS ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP WITH A SUBSEQUENT
ESEWD MOVEMENT OFF THE BOUNDARY INTO A VERY BUOYANT AIRMASS. LARGE
HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS. ALONG
THE NRN OUTFLOW ACROSS NRN IL SHEAR PROFILES ARE A BIT MORE
FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND ISOLATED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT
HOWEVER HAIL/WINDS SHOULD PROVE THE DOMINANT THREAT.

..DARROW.. 05/06/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...

LAT...LON 38999401 41338976 41628779 40518836 38199329 38999401

Flash Flood Watch 11:39:30.4155030

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
BOONE...DE KALB...LA SALLE...LEE...OGLE AND WINNEBAGO. IN
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...KANE AND MCHENRY.

* THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

* SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 AND 3
INCHES PROBABLE...AND ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

* FLOODING OF CREEKS...STREAMS...LOW LYING AREAS...ROADS...AND
URBANIZED AREAS IS POSSIBLE IF THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
MATERIALIZE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

Special Weather Statement 10:15:54.3658446

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 1012 AM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CHERRY VALLEY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CHERRY VALLEY... BELVIDERE... POPLAR GROVE...
CAPRON...


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO STANDING WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR
VISIBILITY. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS
PASSED.

LAT...LON 4248 8883 4237 8856 4211 8895 4215 8902
TIME...MOT...LOC 1515Z 215DEG 28KT 4217 8894

Flash Flood Watch 09:08:00.3255120

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR

* PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
BOONE...DE KALB...LA SALLE...LEE...OGLE AND WINNEBAGO. IN
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...KANE AND MCHENRY.

* FROM 2 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

* SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 AND 3
INCHES PROBABLE.

* FLOODING OF CREEKS...STREAMS...LOW LYING AREAS...ROADS...AND
URBANIZED AREAS IS POSSIBLE IF THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
MATERIALIZE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

Mesoscale Discussion 08:41:18.3096522

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IA / NWRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 061340Z - 061445Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING IN CONJUNCTION WITH BOWING
MCS. A WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED.

DISCUSSION...AS OF 1330Z...DMX RADAR SHOWED A BOWING MCS FROM DALLAS
AND POLK COUNTIES SWD TO CLARK AND DECATUR COUNTIES WITH SYSTEM
MOVING EWD AT AROUND 35 KT. ON IT/S CURRENT TRACK...IT WILL MOVE E
OF WW 255 BY ABOUT 1430Z. 13Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE
BOW IS SITUATED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COOL SIDE OF A STATIONARY FRONT
WHICH EXTENDS EWD INTO CNTRL IL. 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM DVN AND ILX
REVEALED A NEAR-GROUND STABLE LAYER...BUT A VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT AND STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH MUCAPE VALUES
ESTIMATED UPWARDS OF 4000-5000 J/KG.

DAYTIME HEATING DOWNSTREAM FROM MCS SHOULD ALLOW IT TO BECOME
PROGRESSIVELY MORE ROOTED WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER THIS MORNING.
AND WHILE DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD IS NOT OVERLY SUPPORTIVE OF AN
ORGANIZED SYSTEM...THE EXTREME INSTABILITY AND GROWING COLD POOL
SHOULD ALLOW THE BOW TO FURTHER EVOLVE WITH AN ASSOCIATED RISK FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL.

..MEAD.. 05/06/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...DVN...

LAT...LON 41889227 42159185 42089049 41858980 41368901 40648909
40178962 40159026 40259094 40439157 40609208 41889227

Flash Flood Watch 03:56:55.1407285

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST
INDIANA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN ILLINOIS...
BOONE...COOK...DE KALB...DUPAGE...GRUNDY...KANE...KENDALL...LA
SALLE...LAKE IL...LEE...MCHENRY...OGLE...WILL AND WINNEBAGO.
IN NORTHWEST INDIANA...LAKE IN AND PORTER.

* FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

* SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES POSSIBLE.

* FLOODING OF CREEKS...STREAMS...LOW LYING AREAS...ROADS...AND
URBANIZED AREAS IS POSSIBLE IF THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
MATERIALIZE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

Flood Potential Outlook 14:36:52.5208587

...HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT MAY LEAD TO QUICK
RISES OF SMALLER STEM RIVERS...

A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY. ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL RATES
AT TIMES. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES
ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST DURING SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE LIKELY WILL BE
SOME EVEN HEAVIER SWATHS OF RAIN UNDER THE MORE SUSTAINED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE REGION. WHILE IT IS UNCERTAIN WHERE
THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE...SUCH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER SMALLER RIVER BASINS WOULD LIKELY LEAD TO
QUICK RISES OF THOSE RIVERS.

Radar Outage Notification 19:34:40.6977520

NOUS63 KLOT 050034
FTMLOT
Message Date: May 05 2012 00:34:19KLOT WSR-88D RADAR IS BACK ONLINE.

Radar Outage Notification 19:18:54.6883866

NOUS63 KLOT 050015
FTMLOT
Message Date: May 05 2012 00:15:54KLOT WSR-88D RADAR WILL BE GOING DOWN FOR A REBOOT.

Mesoscale Discussion 02:16:45.812294.5

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MO...CNTRL AND NRN IL INTO NWRN IND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 235...236...

VALID 040716Z - 040915Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
235...236...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A HAIL...WIND...AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL PERSIST ACROSS
NRN MO WITH A DECREASING OVERALL THREAT INTO IL. A FEW SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NWRN IND.

DISCUSSION...A SMALL MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD ACROSS N CNTRL
IL...AND WILL CROSS INTO INDIANA SOON. TRAILING SWWD FROM THIS
FORWARD PROPAGATING CLUSTER IS A PRONOUNCED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH
CONTINUES TO SURGE SWD ACROSS CNTRL IL. WHILE A WIND THREAT WILL
EXIST OVER NWRN IND...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE DIMINISHING TO THE
W. UNLESS ELEVATED HAIL CORES BECOME SEVERE...NRN AND ERN PORTIONS
OF THE WATCH COULD BE CANCELLED EARLY.

OVER WRN PARTS OF THE WATCH...NEW ACTIVITY WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS
SERN IA/FAR WRN IL...WHICH MAY POSE SOME THREAT MAINLY ALONG AND S
OF THE OUTFLOW FROM THE PREVIOUS CONVECTION.

TO THE W OVER NRN MO...STRONG SWLY WARM FLOW CONTINUE TO FEED A VERY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS INTO EXISTING CLUSTERS OF STORMS...WITH
CONTINUOUS CORES FORMING OVER WRN PORTIONS OF THE BOUNDARY. HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN. WITH VEERING 850
MB FLOW AND MARGINAL FLOW ALOFT...THESE CELL CLUSTERS MAY GUST OUT
ONCE THEY REACH A CRITICAL SIZE AND OUTFLOW SURGES OUT FROM UNDER
THEM.

..JEWELL.. 05/04/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...
OAX...

LAT...LON 41578891 41448709 41238656 40838654 40428719 39958980
39459273 39509422 40129537 40629560 40779508 41309102
41578891

Mesoscale Discussion 23:19:14.8311446

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MO/SRN AND SERN IA AND WRN/NRN IL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 232...234...

VALID 040418Z - 040445Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 232...234...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...ONGOING TSTM CLUSTER LOCATED OVER SERN IA INTO NWRN IL
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ESE DURING THE LATE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT
PERIOD WITH A NEW WW POSSIBLE BY 05Z AS WW 232 AND WW 233 ARE
SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT THAT TIME. IN ADDITION TO A THREAT FOR SVR
STORMS WITH THIS COMPLEX...HEAVY RAIN RATES OF 1-2+ INCH PER HOUR
WILL PERSIST AS STORMS TRAIN ESE WITHIN A 35 MILE WIDE CORRIDOR
EXTENDING FROM LOUISA COUNTY IA TO LA SALLE COUNTY IL.

TSTMS HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS
NWRN MO INTO FAR NERN KS. A TORNADO THREAT AND POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

DISCUSSION...LATE EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A ZONE OF LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE EXTENDING FROM NEAR CHICAGO SWWD INTO WEST CENTRAL
IL AND THEN WWD THROUGH FAR NRN MO. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED
EFFECTIVE SRH OF 100-200 M2/S2 INVOF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE WHERE A
SSWLY 30-40 KT LLJ WAS OBSERVED PER WIND PROFILERS AND WSR-88D VWP
DATA. THIS SUGGESTS THE TORNADO THREAT REMAINS NONZERO WITH THE
GREATEST TORNADO THREAT POTENTIAL ATTENDANT TO THE DISCRETE STORMS
IN NWRN MO/FAR NERN KS...THOUGH THE TORNADO THREAT CANNOT BE RULED
OUT WITH THE ACTIVITY ALONG THE SRN EXTENT OF THE SERN IA/NWRN IL
TSTM COMPLEX.

IN ADDITION...RECENT RADAR IMAGERY OVER NWRN IL INDICATED A N-S LINE
OF TSTMS DEVELOPING FROM HENRY COUNTY TO MERCER COUNTY...WHICH MAY
BE THE BEGINNING OF A DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS THIS LINE ADVANCES
EWD. GIVEN A SSWLY LLJ WILL CONTINUE TO FEED MODERATE INSTABILITY
INTO THE SWRN-SRN EXTENT OF THIS TSTM COMPLEX MAINTAINING NEW
DEVELOPMENT...A NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE COORDINATED SOON FOR PARTS OF
NRN/CENTRAL IL.

..PETERS.. 05/04/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

LAT...LON 40599574 40659487 41499514 41559157 41879131 41809025
41618978 41558918 40928900 40368801 39878929 39489069
39159132 39299261 39309328 39199418 39459442 39559511
39699532 40599574

Mesoscale Discussion 22:30:15.8020485

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN IL INTO FAR NWRN IND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 233...

VALID 040329Z - 040430Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 233
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...STRONGER STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NERN EXTENT OF
WW 233 FROM COOK COUNTY IL EWD INTO FAR NWRN IND AND ALONG THE
ADJACENT FAR SRN EXTENT OF LAKE MICHIGAN. MEANWHILE...A LARGE
CLUSTER OF TSTMS...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SERN IA INTO NWRN IL...IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE E/SEWD ACROSS NRN IL WITH THIS ACTIVITY AFFECTING
THE W/SW PART OF WW 233 BETWEEN 0330-05Z.

DISCUSSION...AT 03Z...MESOANALYSIS INDICATED A WEAK BOUNDARY DRAPED
GENERALLY WWD FROM FAR SERN LOWER MI/NWRN OH THROUGH NRN IND...NRN
IL TO EAST CENTRAL/SERN IA. IR IMAGERY SHOWED AN EXPANDING AREA OF
COLD CLOUD TOPS ATTENDANT TO THE TSTM COMPLEX LOCATED OVER ERN/SERN
IA INTO NWRN IL PER REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC. A 30 KT SWLY LLJ
EXTENDING FROM OK THROUGH THE LOWER MO VALLEY TO IL WILL MAINTAIN A
FEED OF MODERATE INSTABILITY INTO THE SRN EXTENT OF THE LARGE
COMPLEX OVER ERN/SERN IA AND NWRN IL. GIVEN NEW DEVELOPMENT
EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG THE SRN EXTENT OF THIS TSTM CLUSTER AND
STORM MOTIONS TOWARD THE ESE...THEN OVERALL SVR WEATHER THREAT
SHOULD REMAIN LOW OVER FAR NRN IL WHICH SUPPORTED THE REMOVAL OF
THOSE COUNTIES FROM THIS WW.

EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 30-35 KT AND THE MODERATE INSTABILITY
SUGGEST HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS
THROUGH 05Z.

..PETERS.. 05/04/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...LOT...ILX...DVN...

LAT...LON 41828961 41918890 42118890 42148775 42118695 40938691
40558715 40418813 40478838 40878895 41208916 41558918
41628965 41828961

Watch County Notification 22:10:56.7905744

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS CANCELLED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH 233 FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN ILLINOIS THIS CANCELS 5 COUNTIES

IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS

BOONE OGLE WINNEBAGO

IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS

LAKE IL MCHENRY

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...BELVIDERE...OREGON...ROCKFORD...
WAUKEGAN AND WOODSTOCK.

Mesoscale Discussion 18:43:37.6674283

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL IL TO NRN MO AND FAR SRN IA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 232...

VALID 032342Z - 040045Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 232 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...NEW WW PROPOSAL WILL BE COORDINATED SOON FOR AREAS W OF WW
232 AS TSTMS LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITHIN A DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING ZONE/REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS GRADUALLY INCREASED ALONG A REMNANT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NEAR PIA W/SWWD TO NRN MO. AIR MASS S OF THIS
BOUNDARY IS STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE OF 2500 TO 3500 J/KG AND
PARTIAL 00Z TOP/ILX/DVN RAOBS INDICATING MINIMAL MLCIN. TSTMS SHOULD
BLOSSOM WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR BY SUNSET AS THE LLJ INTENSIFIES THIS
EVENING. PRIMARY INITIAL THREATS SHOULD BE LARGE /POTENTIALLY
SIGNIFICANT/ HAIL AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO. UPSCALE GROWTH INTO
AN MCS APPEARS PLAUSIBLE WITH THE RISK TRANSITIONING TO DAMAGING
WINDS LATER THIS EVENING.

..GRAMS.. 05/03/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...

LAT...LON 41058999 40908894 40398868 39708918 39289029 39189309
39399458 40349565 40709570 40949470 40939273 41019103
41058999

Watch County Notification 18:41:39.6662601

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
233 UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT WHICH REPLACES A PORTION OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 230. THE NEW WATCH IS VALID FOR THE FOLLOWING
AREAS

IN ILLINOIS THE NEW WATCH INCLUDES 11 COUNTIES

IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS

BOONE DE KALB OGLE
WINNEBAGO

IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS

COOK DUPAGE KANE
KENDALL LAKE IL MCHENRY
WILL

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...AURORA...BELVIDERE...CHICAGO...
DEKALB...JOLIET...OREGON...OSWEGO...ROCKFORD...WAUKEGAN...
WHEATON AND WOODSTOCK.

Watch County Notification 18:41:37.6662402

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
233 UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT WHICH REPLACES A PORTION OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 230. THE NEW WATCH IS VALID FOR THE FOLLOWING
AREAS

IN ILLINOIS THE NEW WATCH INCLUDES 11 COUNTIES

IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS

BOONE DE KALB OGLE
WINNEBAGO

IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS

COOK DUPAGE KANE
KENDALL LAKE IL MCHENRY
WILL

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...AURORA...BELVIDERE...CHICAGO...
DEKALB...JOLIET...OREGON...OSWEGO...ROCKFORD...WAUKEGAN...
WHEATON AND WOODSTOCK.

Mesoscale Discussion 18:23:34.6555186

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN IL /INCLUDING CHICAGO METRO AREA/...FAR NWRN
IND AND SRN LAKE MICHIGAN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 230...

VALID 032322Z - 032345Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 230
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A NEW WW WILL BE COORDINATED SOON TO REPLACE PARTS OF
EXISTING WW 230...AND INCLUDE PARTS OF FAR NWRN IND.

TSTMS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ALONG A LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ZONE FROM SRN LAKE MICHIGAN SWWD THROUGH NERN TO CENTRAL
IL. A THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
EVENING.

DISCUSSION...AT 2310Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED AN INCREASING
TREND IN STORM INTENSITIES ALONG A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE
EXTENDING FROM SRN LAKE MI SWWD THROUGH NERN INTO CENTRAL IL. GIVEN
A MODERATELY-STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS RESIDING OVER WRN/CENTRAL TO
NERN IL TO NWRN IND AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 30-35 KT...A THREAT
FOR SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST BEYOND THE 00Z EXPIRATION
TIME OF THE WW 230. MODELS TEND TO AGREE WITH THE SCENARIO SHOWING
STORMS DEVELOPING AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE EVENING ALONG THIS ZONE
OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WHILE A SWLY LLJ AT 30-35 KT FEEDS THE
MODERATE-STRONG INSTABILITY INTO THIS REGION.

..PETERS.. 05/03/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GRR...LOT...

LAT...LON 42498624 41538723 41228799 41318826 41548869 41878931
42438824 42508695 42608663 42498624

Mesoscale Discussion 15:54:29.5669630

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH NEEDED SOON

VALID 032053Z - 032130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

DISCUSSION...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE STORMS AND A WATCH ISSUANCE WILL BE COORDINATED BETWEEN THE
SPC AND THE AFFECTED LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES SHORTLY.

..DARROW.. 05/03/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...

LAT...LON 40339146 41618980 41218810 39708875 39219055 40339146

Mesoscale Discussion 14:53:59.5310261

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN WI...NRN IL...SRN LAKE MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 230...

VALID 031953Z - 032100Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 230
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF WW230.

DISCUSSION...TRANSITORY MCV HAS PROGRESSED ACROSS SRN WI AND HAS
LOST ITS IDENTITY OVER CNTRL LAKE MI. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TRAIL SWWD ACROSS CNTRL LAKE MI AND SRN
WI. GIVEN THE DEEP SWLY FLOW ACROSS THIS REGION THERE APPEARS TO BE
SOME AIR MASS RECOVERY INTO THE SWRN FLANK OF THE ONGOING
CONVECTION. LATEST VIS IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS TREND WITH NEW
UPDRAFTS FORMING ACROSS SCNTRL WI. NEW TSTMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE
ACROSS SRN WI OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH SUBSEQUENT MOVEMENT
EXPECTED TO TRAIL CURRENT ACTIVITY. WITH TIME NEW STORMS MAY
DEVELOP INTO NRN IL AS BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS/DEEPENS.

..DARROW.. 05/03/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...LOT...MKX...DVN...

LAT...LON 43738952 43318654 41428652 41858952 43738952

Watch County Notification 13:07:47.4679433

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
230 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN ILLINOIS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 11 COUNTIES

IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS

BOONE DE KALB OGLE
WINNEBAGO

IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS

COOK DUPAGE KANE
KENDALL LAKE IL MCHENRY
WILL

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...AURORA...BELVIDERE...CHICAGO...
DEKALB...JOLIET...OREGON...OSWEGO...ROCKFORD...WAUKEGAN...
WHEATON AND WOODSTOCK.

Radar Outage Notification 11:12:26.3994254

NOUS63 KLOT 021610
FTMLOT
Message Date: May 02 2012 16:10:35KLOT WSR-88D RADAR IS BACK ONLINE AS OF 1610Z. tation detected since 5/2/2012 15:00 Z.

Radar Outage Notification 11:10:24.3982176

NOUS63 KLOT 021609
FTMLOT

MESSAGE DATE: MAY 02 2012 16:09:30

KLOT WSR-88D RADAR IS BACK ONLINE AS OF 1610Z.

Test Message 11:00:55.3925844

THIS IS THE WEEKLY TEST OF THE WXWARN1 ALERT SYSTEM THIS IS ONLY A TEST

Mesoscale Discussion 17:56:04.6391836

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN IND

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 218...

VALID 012255Z - 020000Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 218 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SHORT-TERM TORNADO THREAT MAY BE MAXIMIZED OVER W-CNTRL
IND. OTHERWISE...SVR WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF WW 218.

DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 22Z SHOWS AN AREA OF WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SITUATED OVER E-CNTRL IL...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SEWD
INTO SERN IND...AND THEN EWD ACROSS SRN OH. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
GUIDANCE INDICATES AXIS OF HIGHEST SURFACE THETA-E VALUES EXTEND NWD
OUT OF SRN IL INTO W-CNTRL IND. IN ADDITION...0-1 KM SRH IS
MAXIMIZED ALONG AND TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE WARM FRONT OVER W-CNTRL
INTO CNTRL IND. THUS...SUPERCELL MOVING E-SEWD ALONG WARM FRONT OVER
W-CNTRL IND SHOULD POSE THE GREATEST THREAT FOR TORNADOES IN THE
SHORT-TERM. OTHER CLUSTERS OF STORMS FORMING SEWD ALONG THE FRONT IN
IND WILL POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND
PERHAPS A TORNADO.

..GARNER.. 05/01/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...

LAT...LON 40478752 40488710 40568710 40568677 40738676 40728637
40448637 40358624 39938624 39948559 40088560 40088522
39808521 39188544 38938543 38718531 38348564 38388668
38528673 38538729 38418777 38718752 39138767 39388752
40478752

Mesoscale Discussion 15:39:37.5581323

AREAS AFFECTED...EAST-CENTRAL IL TO WESTERN INDIANA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 012039Z - 012245Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...MONITORING FOR INCREASING SIGNS OF SURFACE BASED DEEP
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL IL INTO WESTERN
INDIANA...WHICH DOES REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. SHOULD
TSTMS OCCUR/INCREASE...AT LEAST AN ISOLATED TORNADO/SEVERE HAIL RISK
WOULD EXIST.

DISCUSSION...RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS REFLECT A THICKENING CU
FIELD ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL/SOUTH-CENTRAL IL...ESPECIALLY
WITH A GENERAL CORRIDOR AROUND THE DECATUR/TAYLORVILLE AREAS AS OF
2030Z. THIS AREA IS IN VICINITY OF A WEST-EAST WARM/STATIONARY FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION...AND IS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
IMPULSE/MCV ACROSS NORTHERN IL. A KEY UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING
THE LIKELIHOOD/EXTENT OF DEEP CONVECTION WEST OF TORNADO WATCH
218....GIVEN THAT THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO INCREASINGLY COME UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING/WEAKENING MASS CONVERGENCE AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL IMPULSE CONTINUES TO SHIFT
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA. THAT SAID...A MOIST AND
MODERATELY UNSTABLE/WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS DOES REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH VERTICAL SHEAR/SRH ACCENTUATED NEAR THE WARM FRONT.
INCREASING SIGNS/CONFIDENCE OF DEEP CONVECTIVE INITIATION COULD
PROMPT A WATCH ISSUANCE ACROSS IL AND/OR EXPANSION OF WW 218 ACROSS
INDIANA. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR A
TORNADO/HAIL THREAT THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

..GUYER/MEAD.. 05/01/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...

LAT...LON 39228897 40278868 40668715 39448695 38968817 39228897