Tuesday, June 25, 2013

Mesoscale Discussion 21:21:21.7611219

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL IL...MUCH OF IN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 363...

VALID 260220Z - 260345Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 363
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...LARGE HAIL THREAT MAY BE DEVELOPING OVER IL AS STORMS
REGENERATE ABOVE SURFACE COLD POOL...AND THEN TRAIN EWD /WHERE A
HEAVY RAIN THREAT IS POSSIBLE...REFER TO WPC GUIDANCE/. NEW WW MAY
BE NEEDED OVER PORTIONS OF IL AND IND.

OVER SRN IN...STRONG/SEVERE GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF A MULTICELL LINE SEGMENT. OVER NRN IN...LINE OF STORMS WILL
CONTINUE PROPAGATING SWD DURING THE NIGHT...AND MAY ALSO POSE
MARGINAL DAMAGING WIND THREAT.

DISCUSSION...AT 0210Z...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDED NWWD FROM SRN
IN INTO CNTRL/WRN IL. A SMALL LINE SEGMENT LOCATED AT THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE COLD POOL IN SRN IN IS MOVING INTO A WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER AIRMASS WHICH IS AIDING IN MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY.
THIS MAY SUPPORT A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS DURING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FARTHER W OVER WRN/CNTRL IL...50 KT LOW-LEVEL
JET CENTERED OVER THE GREAT PLAINS IS VEERING INTO THE REMNANT
SURFACE COLD POOL...AND IS AIDING IN REGENERATION OF STORMS. HIGH
THETA-E AIRMASS BEING LIFTED OVER THE COLD POOL IS CONTRIBUTING TO
MUCAPE VALUES AOA 2000 J/KG...AND WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR NEAR 30
KT...WILL SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION AND A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL.
THIS AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A NEW WW.

..GARNER.. 06/26/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...

LAT...LON 39498953 40159120 41019062 41068874 41318755 41738646
41538474 39738521 38878763 39498953