Monday, June 24, 2013

Mesoscale Discussion 20:12:43.7203537

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LOWER MI...NERN OH...NRN/CNTRL IN...E-CNTRL IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 358...

VALID 250111Z - 250215Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 358
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...BOWING MCS WITH A HISTORY OF PRODUCING LONG SWATHS OF
DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUES TO MOVE E ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AT 30-40
KT. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR WW 358 IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...WITH
A NEW WW ISSUANCE POSSIBLE OVER SERN LOWER MI INTO NRN PORTIONS OF
OH.

DISCUSSION...A FAST MOVING BOW ECHO WAS LOCATED FROM SWRN LOWER MI
INTO NRN/CNTRL IN AND FAR E-CNTRL IL AT 01Z. AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM /PER
ILN AND DTX 00Z RAOBS/ IS CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES IN THE
80S...AND DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S...WHICH SUPPORTS
MLCAPE VALUES FROM 1000-1500 J/KG. THOUGH THE BOW ECHO HAS SHOWN A
WEAKENING TREND DURING THE LAST HOUR...ELONGATION OF THE COLD POOL
DOWNSTREAM INTO THE MODERATE INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE
TO FAVOR UPDRAFT REGENERATION ALONG THE GUST FRONT AND MAINTAIN A
RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS. AREAS OF E OF WW 358 WILL BE MONITORED FOR
A NEW WW ISSUANCE.

..GARNER.. 06/25/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...

LAT...LON 39738874 40228834 41308633 42278618 43018549 42978357
41688270 40578306 39678606 39738874