AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN WI/PARTS OF FAR NRN AND NERN IL TO FAR
NWRN IND AND SWRN LOWER MI
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 250738Z - 250915Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A BOWING
LINE OF STORMS MOVING INTO FAR SERN WI...WITH A SIMILAR THREAT INTO
PARTS OF FAR NRN AND NERN IL THROUGH 09-10Z. CONFIDENCE IS GREATER
FOR A FEW SVR WIND GUSTS IN FAR SERN WI...BUT OVERALL SPATIAL THREAT
IS TOO SMALL TO WARRANT A SVR TSTM WATCH. THE SWRN EXTENSION OF THE
LINE INTO NRN IL IS MOVING A LITTLE SLOWER WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
HAVING A SVR WIND GUST INTO NERN IL.
DISCUSSION...AT 0720Z...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A BOWING LINE OF
STORMS MOVING THROUGH SERN WI AND RECENTLY MOVED INTO FAR NERN IL.
THE SERN WI PORTION OF THIS LINE HAS SHOWN A TENDENCY TO BOW AND WAS
MOVING EWD AT 40-45 KT...WHILE THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE LINE IN
NRN IL WAS TRACKING ESEWD AT 30-35 KT. A 45 KT SWLY LLJ EXTENDED
INTO NRN IL AND SHOULD VEER TO WLY OVERNIGHT. WAA WITHIN THE NOSE OF
THIS JET WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY ALONG THE
TRAILING LINE OF STORMS WHERE THE ENVIRONMENT IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE
/MUCAPE 1000-1500 J PER KG/. IF THE FORWARD SPEED SHOWS SIGNS OF
INCREASING...THEN A WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF NERN IL INTO NWRN
IND.
FARTHER NE OVER SWRN LOWER MI...THE ENVIRONMENT IS MORE STABLE AND
FORECAST TO REMAIN STABLE THROUGH 12Z. THUS...THE SERN WI PORTION
OF THIS LINE OF STORMS SHOULD NOT POSE A SVR WEATHER THREAT ONCE IT
CROSSES SRN LAKE MICHIGAN...THOUGH TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.
..PETERS/HART.. 06/25/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...LOT...MKX...
LAT...LON 42158945 42258894 42488847 42848805 43038796 42968731
42788612 42278561 41688571 41388641 41378687 41488766
41678848 41998929 42158945
