AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN WI/NORTHEAST IL/NORTHERN INDIANA/WESTERN
LOWER MI TO NORTHWEST OH
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 272312Z - 280115Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE/BOUTS OF SEVERE HAIL WILL REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY ACROSS EASTERN WI/NORTHEAST IL INTO WESTERN LOWER
MI/NORTHERN INDIANA AND WESTERN/NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OH THROUGH THE
02Z-03Z TIME FRAME. THE NEED FOR A WATCH CANNOT BE ENTIRELY
DISCOUNTED...BUT THE WIDELY SCATTERED NATURE OF THE STRONG/SEVERE
TSTMS IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE A WATCH ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION...ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LOW OVER
MANITOBA/NORTHERN ONTARIO...A NORTHWESTERLY MID-HIGH LEVEL SPEED MAX
APPEARS TO BE SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES PER
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS IS A FACTOR IS STORM PERSISTENCE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SPREAD GENERALLY
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH EARLY/MID EVENING COINCIDENT WITH RELATIVELY
UNIFORM WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW...ASIDE FROM A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
PROPAGATING OUTFLOW/EXPANDING COLD POOL ACROSS EASTERN LOWER
MI/ADJACENT FAR NORTHERN OH. GIVEN THE WARM/MOIST NATURE OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER...MLCAPE IS LIKELY AS HIGH AS 1500-2500 J/KG ACROSS
EASTERN WI/NORTHEAST IL INTO MUCH OF INDIANA/WESTERN LOWER MI AND
WESTERN OH. OVERALL ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR SUSTAINED
MULTICELLS/TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED WIND
DAMAGE/SEVERE HAIL. WHILE SEVERE TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST ON A
WIDELY SCATTERED BASIS THROUGH EARLY/PARTS OF MID-EVENING...A WATCH
DOES NOT APPEAR IMMINENT BARRING ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION/ORGANIZATION.
..GUYER/THOMPSON.. 06/27/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...GRB...LOT...
MKX...
LAT...LON 44458785 43948619 42648533 41848343 41038271 40308279
40088416 40718595 41838771 43538845 44458785
