AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/NRN INDIANA...NERN IL...SWRN LOWER
MI...WRN OH.
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 281736Z - 281830Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...WRN EXTENSION OF BROAD AND MOSTLY POORLY FOCUSED AREA OF
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION...IN CLUSTERS AND DISCRETE
CELLS...SHOULD AFFECT DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH AFTN. CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE MAY INCREASE ASIDE FROM LOOSELY ORGANIZED CLUSTER NOW OVER
NRN INDIANA. MAIN CONCERNS ARE DAMAGING GUSTS AND SPORADIC HAIL.
REF SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1285 AND WW 386 FOR AREAS FARTHER E.
DISCUSSION...SWATH OF DEEP-TROPOSPHERIC CYCLONIC FLOW OVERLIES AT
LEAST MRGLLY FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THIS REGION...WHERE
COMBINATION OF SFC DIABATIC HEATING AND DEW POINTS MAINLY 60S F
YIELDS MLCAPE 500-1500 J/KG IN MODIFIED RAOBS AND FCST SOUNDINGS.
BUOYANCY AND MOISTURE EACH DIMINISH GRADUALLY WITH WWD EXTENT AND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL REMAIN LIMITED BY
SUBSTANTIAL WLY COMPONENT OF SFC FLOW...WHILE DEEP SHEAR INCREASES
WITH SWD EXTENT IN PROXIMITY TO BELT OF PEAK MID-UPPER WINDS
EXTENDING FROM IA ESEWD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TO SWRN OH. THOUGH
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS WEAK...SOME CONFLUENCE IS EVIDENT IN
STREAMLINES...AND LACK OF MLCINH WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS OUTSIDE EXISTING AREAS OF CONVECTION.
MAIN LIMITING FACTORS ARE POORLY FOCUSED LOW-LEVEL LIFT AND LACK OF
MORE ROBUST BUOYANCY. STILL...STRONGEST/MOST SUSTAINED CELLS MAY
PRODUCE DAMAGING GUSTS AND MRGLLY SVR HAIL.
..EDWARDS/MEAD.. 06/28/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...
LAT...LON 41718608 42228582 41518400 40228411 39258440 39318690
41638901 42348884 42338791 41698748 41198648 41718608
