Tuesday, June 25, 2013

Mesoscale Discussion 17:50:49.6360650

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL IL...NRN/CNTRL IN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 363...

VALID 252249Z - 252345Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 363
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND SMALL LINES CONTINUE TO MOVE E AT
30 KT OVER E-CNTRL IL. THIS ACTIVITY WILL ENTER WRN PORTIONS OF IN
DURING THE NEXT HOUR. FARTHER W OVER CNTRL IL...DEEPENING CUMULUS IS
OBSERVED...AND MAY BE A LOCATION FOR NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE
SHORT-TERM. OTHER STORMS ARE FORMING OVER SRN LOWER MI...AND MAY
PROPAGATE SWD INTO NRN IN. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS WW
363.

DISCUSSION...SWLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A
WARM...MOIST...AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER MUCH OF IN AND SRN/CNTRL
IL...WITH ESTIMATES OF MLCAPE NEAR 3000 J/KG. THIS WILL AID IN
MAINTAINING MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND LINES CURRENTLY MOVING E OVER
E-CNTRL IL. WITH TIME...ACTIVITY MAY BEGIN TO PROPAGATE SWD INTO THE
FETCH OF GREATER BUOYANCY. THUS...PORTIONS OF WW 363 MAY NEED TO BE
SPATIALLY EXPANDED TO THE S BY LOCAL OFFICES. BEHIND THE LINE OVER
W-CNTRL/CNTRL IL...UNSTABLE AIRMASS RIDING UP OVER TRAILING COLD
POOL MAY SUPPORT NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
THUS...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR ALL OF WW 363.

..GARNER.. 06/25/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN...

LAT...LON 41169040 41098916 41638916 41678704 41768681 41768482
39778483 39759044 41169040