<pre>ACUS11 KWNS 091945 SWOMCD
Mesoscale Discussion 1551 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Tue Oct 09 2018
Areas affected…Far east Iowa…far northwest Illinois…southern Wisconsin
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 091945Z – 092145Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…20 percent
SUMMARY…Isolated damaging wind gusts and possibly a brief tornado may accompany the stronger storms. A WW issuance is not expected at this time.
DISCUSSION…Isolated, small, relatively discrete storms have developed just south of a differential heating zone within the last 1-2 hours, where temperatures have climbed into the 80s. A few of these storms have exhibited occasional low-level rotation (as was the case recently in Dubuque County, Iowa).
With mid 60s dewpoints and modest lapse rates in place, up to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE has recently been realized across the discussion area. Still, buoyancy is rather modest, as is deep-layer shear, with 35 knots of effective bulk shear noted. Deep layer ascent and stronger low-level shear are currently located well upstream of the region and are not expected to arrive until later this afternoon/early evening. As such, in the short term, a few of the stronger cells may become organized, perhaps with brief periods of moderate to strong low-level rotation. A few marginally severe wind gusts may occur and a brief tornado cannot be ruled out.
Given the isolated and marginal extend of the short term severe threat, a WW issuance is not expected at this time, though convective trends will be monitored for any increase in threat.
..Squitieri/Grams.. 10/09/2018
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…LOT…MKX…DVN…ARX…
LAT…LON 41199101 41759131 42329121 42929091 43369038 43738920
43838809 43318780 42548793 41968828 41458941 41278991 41199101 </pre>
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