ACUS11 KWNS 311547
SWOMCD
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0303
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1046 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF FAR ERN IA...NRN IL...AND SRN WI
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 311546Z - 311715Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A LOW THREAT FOR OCCASIONALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL EXIST
THROUGH ABOUT 18Z. DUE TO THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE EXPECTED
THREAT...WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY.
DISCUSSION...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS FAR ERN IA INTO NWRN IL AND
SWRN WI AS OF 1540Z IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
NEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THAT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER SCALE
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CNTRL/SWRN CONUS.
AT THE SFC...A LOW IS ELONGATED FROM NE-SW ACROSS LOWER MI INTO NRN
IL...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD FROM THE LOW ACROSS THE IA/IL
BORDER MOVING EWD. COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT COMBINED WITH MODEST SFC
HEATING AND SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ARE CONTRIBUTING TO WEAK
INSTABILITY...WITH MUCAPE RANGING FROM 250-750 J/KG PER RAP
MESOANALYSIS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS. WITH SOME ADDITIONAL HEATING
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...INSTABILITY MAY INCREASE
SLIGHTLY THROUGH 18Z BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MCD
AREA. STRONG SWLY WINDS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-50 KT SHOULD ALLOW SOME OF THE
CONVECTION TO BECOME ORGANIZED AND POSE MAINLY AN ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL RISK THROUGH 18Z. THE LACK OF A WARMER/MORE MOIST LOW-LEVEL
AIRMASS SHOULD TEMPER THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND RESULTING SEVERE
RISK.
..GLEASON/THOMPSON.. 03/31/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...
LAT...LON 40729082 41319074 41889045 42379058 42589046 42838998
42958895 43048777 42718764 42298767 41688755 41228836
40739009 40729082
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