ACUS11 KWNS 222255
SWOMCD
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1433
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0554 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IL...SERN WI THROUGH WRN LOWER MI
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 222254Z - 230100Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...STORMS MIGHT BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS FROM SERN WI THROUGH WRN LOWER MI THIS
EVENING. CONFIDENCE IN A MORE ROBUST SEVERE EVENT IS NOT
PARTICULARLY HIGH...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.
DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS EVENING A FEW STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A
SEWD MOVING COLD FRONT FROM NCNTRL LAKE MI SWWD INTO SERN WI. LATEST
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AND FORECAST SOUNDING DATA SHOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO
BE VERY UNSTABLE IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR WITH 3000-3500 J/KG
MLCAPE. HOWEVER...WARM TEMPERATURES AT BASE OF AN EML HAVE ADVECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF WARM SECTOR WHICH...IN ADDITION TO APPARENT MODEST
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...SUGGESTS STORMS MIGHT STRUGGLE AS THEY TRY TO
DEVELOP SEWD...ESPECIALLY WITH ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING.
NEVERTHELESS...A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS EXISTS GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND MODERATE
UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP-LAYER WINDS.
..DIAL/THOMPSON.. 07/22/2014
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...APX...GRR...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...
LAT...LON 42608990 42968976 43518866 44128704 44868577 43888570
42378716 41838870 41968974 42608990
WWWW
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