ACUS11 KWNS 130210
SWOMCD
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1350
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0909 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014
AREAS AFFECTED...N IL...SE IA/WI
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 411...
VALID 130209Z - 130315Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 411 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...OVERALL SEVERE RISK MAY REMAIN TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT
DOWNSTREAM WW ISSUANCE. STILL...ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARD...ESPECIALLY WITH A CLUSTER EVOLVING E/SE FROM NW IL.
DISCUSSION...DESPITE A FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF CAPE/SHEAR...TSTM
CLUSTERS HAVE STRUGGLED TO YIELD ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS BEYOND
LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS. THIS IS PROBABLY IN PART DUE TO MARGINAL
LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 700-500 MB SAMPLED IN 00Z DVN/ILX RAOBS AND
RELATIVELY WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT. OVERALL STORM INTENSITY
HAS LARGELY DIMINISHED...EXCEPT FOR A STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE
CLUSTER OVER STEPHENSON/CARROLL COUNTY IL. AMIDST LARGEST GREATEST
SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS N IL TO FAR S WI...POTENTIAL WILL
EXIST FOR THIS CLUSTER TO PRODUCE ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AS IT
MOVES TOWARD CHICAGOLAND.
..GRAMS.. 07/13/2014
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...DMX...
LAT...LON 40599195 40719221 40849228 41029215 41569078 42268993
42918868 42898775 42258751 41748740 41438765 40948865
40558972 40499074 40599195
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