ACUS11 KWNS 070411
SWOMCD
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1290
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1111 PM CDT SUN JUL 06 2014
AREAS AFFECTED...SE WI...NE IL...SW LOWER MI
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 070411Z - 070515Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...STRONG TO SEVERE STORM THREAT WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING
INTO SE WI/NE IL AND SW LOWER MI. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR
FURTHER STORM INTENSIFICATION/ORGANIZATION.
DISCUSSION...AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL PERSIST WITH
STORMS CURRENTLY INCREASING FROM SE WI/NE IL TOWARD SW LOWER MI.
EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES HAVE INCREASED THIS EVENING TO AROUND 30-35
KT AS HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL IN CONJUNCTION WITH APPROACHING UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WHILE SOME WEAK INHIBITION EXISTS DUE TO DIURNAL
COOLING...MLCAPE VALUES GREATER THAN 1500 J/KG AND ADEQUATE MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
SUPPORT CONTINUED THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. WSR-88D VWP/S
FROM CHICAGO...GRAND RAPIDS AND MILWAUKEE INDICATE 0-1 KM SRH VALUES
GREATER THAN 250 M2/S2 WHICH ALSO INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG
DOWNBURST OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO WITH STRONGER BETTER ORGANIZED
CELLS. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION/ORGANIZATION.
..LEITMAN/HART.. 07/07/2014
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...LOT...MKX...DVN...
LAT...LON 42918916 43118867 43268790 43348630 42968542 42598530
42338528 42088538 41858610 41618725 41818929 42118960
42678940 42918916
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