THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
THE FOX RIVER AT ALGONQUIN TAILWATER.
* UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING.
* AT 730 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.5 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.5 FEET.
* RECENT ACTIVITY...FLOOD FORECASTS FOR ALGONQUIN WERE MOVED TO THIS
LOCATION ON JULY 5 2011. GAGE ZERO DATUM IS DIFFERENT FROM THE OLD
GAGE LOCATION. FLOOD AND ACTION STAGES HAVE CHANGED.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL REMAIN NEAR 10.5 FEET THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
Sunday, June 30, 2013
Flood Statement 10:45:45.3835755
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
THE FOX RIVER AT ALGONQUIN TAILWATER.
* UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING.
* AT 930 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.5 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.5 FEET.
* RECENT ACTIVITY...FLOOD FORECASTS FOR ALGONQUIN WERE MOVED TO THIS
LOCATION ON JULY 5 2011. GAGE ZERO DATUM IS DIFFERENT FROM THE OLD
GAGE LOCATION. FLOOD AND ACTION STAGES HAVE CHANGED.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THE FOX RIVER AT ALGONQUIN TAILWATER.
* UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING.
* AT 930 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.5 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.5 FEET.
* RECENT ACTIVITY...FLOOD FORECASTS FOR ALGONQUIN WERE MOVED TO THIS
LOCATION ON JULY 5 2011. GAGE ZERO DATUM IS DIFFERENT FROM THE OLD
GAGE LOCATION. FLOOD AND ACTION STAGES HAVE CHANGED.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
Saturday, June 29, 2013
Flood Statement 21:10:26.7546374
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
THE FOX RIVER AT ALGONQUIN TAILWATER.
* UNTIL SATURDAY JULY 06.
* AT 830 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.6 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.5 FEET.
* RECENT ACTIVITY...FLOOD FORECASTS FOR ALGONQUIN WERE MOVED TO THIS
LOCATION ON JULY 5 2011. GAGE ZERO DATUM IS DIFFERENT FROM THE OLD
GAGE LOCATION. FLOOD AND ACTION STAGES HAVE CHANGED.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY
FRIDAY EVENING.
THE FOX RIVER AT ALGONQUIN TAILWATER.
* UNTIL SATURDAY JULY 06.
* AT 830 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.6 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.5 FEET.
* RECENT ACTIVITY...FLOOD FORECASTS FOR ALGONQUIN WERE MOVED TO THIS
LOCATION ON JULY 5 2011. GAGE ZERO DATUM IS DIFFERENT FROM THE OLD
GAGE LOCATION. FLOOD AND ACTION STAGES HAVE CHANGED.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY
FRIDAY EVENING.
Flood Statement 09:02:49.3224331
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
THE FOX RIVER AT ALGONQUIN TAILWATER.
* UNTIL SATURDAY JULY 06.
* AT 830 AM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.6 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.5 FEET.
* RECENT ACTIVITY...FLOOD FORECASTS FOR ALGONQUIN WERE MOVED TO THIS
LOCATION ON JULY 5 2011. GAGE ZERO DATUM IS DIFFERENT FROM THE OLD
GAGE LOCATION. FLOOD AND ACTION STAGES HAVE CHANGED.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
THE FOX RIVER AT ALGONQUIN TAILWATER.
* UNTIL SATURDAY JULY 06.
* AT 830 AM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.6 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.5 FEET.
* RECENT ACTIVITY...FLOOD FORECASTS FOR ALGONQUIN WERE MOVED TO THIS
LOCATION ON JULY 5 2011. GAGE ZERO DATUM IS DIFFERENT FROM THE OLD
GAGE LOCATION. FLOOD AND ACTION STAGES HAVE CHANGED.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
Friday, June 28, 2013
Flood Statement 20:37:36.7351343
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
THE FOX RIVER AT ALGONQUIN TAILWATER.
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT 730 PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.7 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.5 FEET.
* RECENT ACTIVITY...FLOOD FORECASTS FOR ALGONQUIN WERE MOVED TO THIS
LOCATION ON JULY 5 2011. GAGE ZERO DATUM IS DIFFERENT FROM THE OLD
GAGE LOCATION. FLOOD AND ACTION STAGES HAVE CHANGED.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO A STAGE OF 10.5 FEET
BY SUNDAY MORNING.
THE FOX RIVER AT ALGONQUIN TAILWATER.
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT 730 PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.7 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.5 FEET.
* RECENT ACTIVITY...FLOOD FORECASTS FOR ALGONQUIN WERE MOVED TO THIS
LOCATION ON JULY 5 2011. GAGE ZERO DATUM IS DIFFERENT FROM THE OLD
GAGE LOCATION. FLOOD AND ACTION STAGES HAVE CHANGED.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO A STAGE OF 10.5 FEET
BY SUNDAY MORNING.
Mesoscale Discussion 12:37:09.4497471
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/NRN INDIANA...NERN IL...SWRN LOWER
MI...WRN OH.
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 281736Z - 281830Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...WRN EXTENSION OF BROAD AND MOSTLY POORLY FOCUSED AREA OF
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION...IN CLUSTERS AND DISCRETE
CELLS...SHOULD AFFECT DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH AFTN. CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE MAY INCREASE ASIDE FROM LOOSELY ORGANIZED CLUSTER NOW OVER
NRN INDIANA. MAIN CONCERNS ARE DAMAGING GUSTS AND SPORADIC HAIL.
REF SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1285 AND WW 386 FOR AREAS FARTHER E.
DISCUSSION...SWATH OF DEEP-TROPOSPHERIC CYCLONIC FLOW OVERLIES AT
LEAST MRGLLY FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THIS REGION...WHERE
COMBINATION OF SFC DIABATIC HEATING AND DEW POINTS MAINLY 60S F
YIELDS MLCAPE 500-1500 J/KG IN MODIFIED RAOBS AND FCST SOUNDINGS.
BUOYANCY AND MOISTURE EACH DIMINISH GRADUALLY WITH WWD EXTENT AND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL REMAIN LIMITED BY
SUBSTANTIAL WLY COMPONENT OF SFC FLOW...WHILE DEEP SHEAR INCREASES
WITH SWD EXTENT IN PROXIMITY TO BELT OF PEAK MID-UPPER WINDS
EXTENDING FROM IA ESEWD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TO SWRN OH. THOUGH
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS WEAK...SOME CONFLUENCE IS EVIDENT IN
STREAMLINES...AND LACK OF MLCINH WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS OUTSIDE EXISTING AREAS OF CONVECTION.
MAIN LIMITING FACTORS ARE POORLY FOCUSED LOW-LEVEL LIFT AND LACK OF
MORE ROBUST BUOYANCY. STILL...STRONGEST/MOST SUSTAINED CELLS MAY
PRODUCE DAMAGING GUSTS AND MRGLLY SVR HAIL.
..EDWARDS/MEAD.. 06/28/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...
LAT...LON 41718608 42228582 41518400 40228411 39258440 39318690
41638901 42348884 42338791 41698748 41198648 41718608
MI...WRN OH.
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 281736Z - 281830Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...WRN EXTENSION OF BROAD AND MOSTLY POORLY FOCUSED AREA OF
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION...IN CLUSTERS AND DISCRETE
CELLS...SHOULD AFFECT DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH AFTN. CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE MAY INCREASE ASIDE FROM LOOSELY ORGANIZED CLUSTER NOW OVER
NRN INDIANA. MAIN CONCERNS ARE DAMAGING GUSTS AND SPORADIC HAIL.
REF SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1285 AND WW 386 FOR AREAS FARTHER E.
DISCUSSION...SWATH OF DEEP-TROPOSPHERIC CYCLONIC FLOW OVERLIES AT
LEAST MRGLLY FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THIS REGION...WHERE
COMBINATION OF SFC DIABATIC HEATING AND DEW POINTS MAINLY 60S F
YIELDS MLCAPE 500-1500 J/KG IN MODIFIED RAOBS AND FCST SOUNDINGS.
BUOYANCY AND MOISTURE EACH DIMINISH GRADUALLY WITH WWD EXTENT AND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL REMAIN LIMITED BY
SUBSTANTIAL WLY COMPONENT OF SFC FLOW...WHILE DEEP SHEAR INCREASES
WITH SWD EXTENT IN PROXIMITY TO BELT OF PEAK MID-UPPER WINDS
EXTENDING FROM IA ESEWD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TO SWRN OH. THOUGH
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS WEAK...SOME CONFLUENCE IS EVIDENT IN
STREAMLINES...AND LACK OF MLCINH WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS OUTSIDE EXISTING AREAS OF CONVECTION.
MAIN LIMITING FACTORS ARE POORLY FOCUSED LOW-LEVEL LIFT AND LACK OF
MORE ROBUST BUOYANCY. STILL...STRONGEST/MOST SUSTAINED CELLS MAY
PRODUCE DAMAGING GUSTS AND MRGLLY SVR HAIL.
..EDWARDS/MEAD.. 06/28/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...
LAT...LON 41718608 42228582 41518400 40228411 39258440 39318690
41638901 42348884 42338791 41698748 41198648 41718608
Flood Statement 08:50:59.3154041
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
THE FOX RIVER AT ALGONQUIN TAILWATER.
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT 830 AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.8 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.5 FEET.
* RECENT ACTIVITY...FLOOD FORECASTS FOR ALGONQUIN WERE MOVED TO THIS
LOCATION ON JULY 5 2011. GAGE ZERO DATUM IS DIFFERENT FROM THE OLD
GAGE LOCATION. FLOOD AND ACTION STAGES HAVE CHANGED.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE FOR THE NEXT
7 DAYS.
THE FOX RIVER AT ALGONQUIN TAILWATER.
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT 830 AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.8 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.5 FEET.
* RECENT ACTIVITY...FLOOD FORECASTS FOR ALGONQUIN WERE MOVED TO THIS
LOCATION ON JULY 5 2011. GAGE ZERO DATUM IS DIFFERENT FROM THE OLD
GAGE LOCATION. FLOOD AND ACTION STAGES HAVE CHANGED.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE FOR THE NEXT
7 DAYS.
Thursday, June 27, 2013
Flood Statement 20:57:58.7472322
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
THE FOX RIVER AT ALGONQUIN TAILWATER.
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT 830 PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.9 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.5 FEET.
* RECENT ACTIVITY...FLOOD FORECASTS FOR ALGONQUIN WERE MOVED TO THIS
LOCATION ON JULY 5 2011. GAGE ZERO DATUM IS DIFFERENT FROM THE OLD
GAGE LOCATION. FLOOD AND ACTION STAGES HAVE CHANGED.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO A STAGE OF 10.5 FEET
BY SATURDAY MORNING.
THE FOX RIVER AT ALGONQUIN TAILWATER.
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT 830 PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.9 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.5 FEET.
* RECENT ACTIVITY...FLOOD FORECASTS FOR ALGONQUIN WERE MOVED TO THIS
LOCATION ON JULY 5 2011. GAGE ZERO DATUM IS DIFFERENT FROM THE OLD
GAGE LOCATION. FLOOD AND ACTION STAGES HAVE CHANGED.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO A STAGE OF 10.5 FEET
BY SATURDAY MORNING.
Flood Statement 20:26:02.7282638
...THE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR
NORTHERN COOK...SOUTHERN LAKE...NORTHEASTERN DUPAGE...SOUTHERN
MCHENRY AND NORTHEASTERN KANE COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
EXCESS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE ADVISORY AREA.
STREAMS AND CREEKS IN THE ADVISORY AREA HAVE RECEDED OR WERE
BEGINNING TO RECEDE...ENDING THE FLOOD THREAT. IF FLOODING HAS BEEN
OBSERVED...PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.
A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF COOK COUNTY
AND EXTREME NORTHEAST DUPAGE COUNTY UNTIL 10 PM CDT.
LAT...LON 4217 8776 4211 8772 4206 8766 4203 8766
4191 8762 4190 8760 4188 8761 4184 8760
4180 8757 4196 8800 4223 8870 4241 8870
NORTHERN COOK...SOUTHERN LAKE...NORTHEASTERN DUPAGE...SOUTHERN
MCHENRY AND NORTHEASTERN KANE COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
EXCESS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE ADVISORY AREA.
STREAMS AND CREEKS IN THE ADVISORY AREA HAVE RECEDED OR WERE
BEGINNING TO RECEDE...ENDING THE FLOOD THREAT. IF FLOODING HAS BEEN
OBSERVED...PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.
A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF COOK COUNTY
AND EXTREME NORTHEAST DUPAGE COUNTY UNTIL 10 PM CDT.
LAT...LON 4217 8776 4211 8772 4206 8766 4203 8766
4191 8762 4190 8760 4188 8761 4184 8760
4180 8757 4196 8800 4223 8870 4241 8870
Flood Statement 19:01:13.6778827
...URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
NORTHERN COOK...SOUTHERN LAKE...NORTHEASTERN DUPAGE...SOUTHERN
MCHENRY AND NORTHEASTERN KANE COUNTIES UNTIL 930 PM CDT...
AT 658 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL HAD MOVED SOUTHEAST INTO LAKE
COUNTY INDIANA...AND OUT OF THE ADVISORY AREA. HOWEVER...THESE
STORMS PRODUCED A CORRIDOR OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN EARLIER FROM
NEAR MARENGO...TO THE BARRINGTON HILLS AND INVERNESS AREAS...TO THE
FRANKLIN PARK AND NEAR WEST SIDE OF CHICAGO AREAS WITHIN THE LAST
TWO HOURS. MINOR FLOODING AND PONDING OF WATER IN LOW SPOTS WILL
CONTINUE EARLY THIS EVENING.
RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
ALGONQUIN...ARLINGTON HEIGHTS...BARRINGTON...BUFFALO GROVE...
CARPENTERSVILLE...CHICAGO...DEERFIELD...DES PLAINES...EAST DUNDEE...
EVANSTON...FRANKLIN PARK...GLENCOE...GLENVIEW...HARWOOD HEIGHTS AND
HIGHLAND PARK.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THIS STORM WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ON SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...URBAN AREAS...
HIGHWAYS... UNDERPASSES AND LOW LYING AREAS.
&&
LAT...LON 4217 8776 4211 8772 4206 8766 4203 8766
4191 8762 4190 8760 4188 8761 4184 8760
4180 8757 4196 8800 4223 8870 4241 8870
NORTHERN COOK...SOUTHERN LAKE...NORTHEASTERN DUPAGE...SOUTHERN
MCHENRY AND NORTHEASTERN KANE COUNTIES UNTIL 930 PM CDT...
AT 658 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL HAD MOVED SOUTHEAST INTO LAKE
COUNTY INDIANA...AND OUT OF THE ADVISORY AREA. HOWEVER...THESE
STORMS PRODUCED A CORRIDOR OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN EARLIER FROM
NEAR MARENGO...TO THE BARRINGTON HILLS AND INVERNESS AREAS...TO THE
FRANKLIN PARK AND NEAR WEST SIDE OF CHICAGO AREAS WITHIN THE LAST
TWO HOURS. MINOR FLOODING AND PONDING OF WATER IN LOW SPOTS WILL
CONTINUE EARLY THIS EVENING.
RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
ALGONQUIN...ARLINGTON HEIGHTS...BARRINGTON...BUFFALO GROVE...
CARPENTERSVILLE...CHICAGO...DEERFIELD...DES PLAINES...EAST DUNDEE...
EVANSTON...FRANKLIN PARK...GLENCOE...GLENVIEW...HARWOOD HEIGHTS AND
HIGHLAND PARK.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THIS STORM WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ON SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...URBAN AREAS...
HIGHWAYS... UNDERPASSES AND LOW LYING AREAS.
&&
LAT...LON 4217 8776 4211 8772 4206 8766 4203 8766
4191 8762 4190 8760 4188 8761 4184 8760
4180 8757 4196 8800 4223 8870 4241 8870
Mesoscale Discussion 18:14:26.6500934
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN WI/NORTHEAST IL/NORTHERN INDIANA/WESTERN
LOWER MI TO NORTHWEST OH
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 272312Z - 280115Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE/BOUTS OF SEVERE HAIL WILL REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY ACROSS EASTERN WI/NORTHEAST IL INTO WESTERN LOWER
MI/NORTHERN INDIANA AND WESTERN/NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OH THROUGH THE
02Z-03Z TIME FRAME. THE NEED FOR A WATCH CANNOT BE ENTIRELY
DISCOUNTED...BUT THE WIDELY SCATTERED NATURE OF THE STRONG/SEVERE
TSTMS IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE A WATCH ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION...ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LOW OVER
MANITOBA/NORTHERN ONTARIO...A NORTHWESTERLY MID-HIGH LEVEL SPEED MAX
APPEARS TO BE SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES PER
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS IS A FACTOR IS STORM PERSISTENCE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SPREAD GENERALLY
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH EARLY/MID EVENING COINCIDENT WITH RELATIVELY
UNIFORM WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW...ASIDE FROM A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
PROPAGATING OUTFLOW/EXPANDING COLD POOL ACROSS EASTERN LOWER
MI/ADJACENT FAR NORTHERN OH. GIVEN THE WARM/MOIST NATURE OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER...MLCAPE IS LIKELY AS HIGH AS 1500-2500 J/KG ACROSS
EASTERN WI/NORTHEAST IL INTO MUCH OF INDIANA/WESTERN LOWER MI AND
WESTERN OH. OVERALL ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR SUSTAINED
MULTICELLS/TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED WIND
DAMAGE/SEVERE HAIL. WHILE SEVERE TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST ON A
WIDELY SCATTERED BASIS THROUGH EARLY/PARTS OF MID-EVENING...A WATCH
DOES NOT APPEAR IMMINENT BARRING ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION/ORGANIZATION.
..GUYER/THOMPSON.. 06/27/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...GRB...LOT...
MKX...
LAT...LON 44458785 43948619 42648533 41848343 41038271 40308279
40088416 40718595 41838771 43538845 44458785
LOWER MI TO NORTHWEST OH
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 272312Z - 280115Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE/BOUTS OF SEVERE HAIL WILL REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY ACROSS EASTERN WI/NORTHEAST IL INTO WESTERN LOWER
MI/NORTHERN INDIANA AND WESTERN/NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OH THROUGH THE
02Z-03Z TIME FRAME. THE NEED FOR A WATCH CANNOT BE ENTIRELY
DISCOUNTED...BUT THE WIDELY SCATTERED NATURE OF THE STRONG/SEVERE
TSTMS IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE A WATCH ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION...ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LOW OVER
MANITOBA/NORTHERN ONTARIO...A NORTHWESTERLY MID-HIGH LEVEL SPEED MAX
APPEARS TO BE SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES PER
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS IS A FACTOR IS STORM PERSISTENCE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SPREAD GENERALLY
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH EARLY/MID EVENING COINCIDENT WITH RELATIVELY
UNIFORM WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW...ASIDE FROM A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
PROPAGATING OUTFLOW/EXPANDING COLD POOL ACROSS EASTERN LOWER
MI/ADJACENT FAR NORTHERN OH. GIVEN THE WARM/MOIST NATURE OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER...MLCAPE IS LIKELY AS HIGH AS 1500-2500 J/KG ACROSS
EASTERN WI/NORTHEAST IL INTO MUCH OF INDIANA/WESTERN LOWER MI AND
WESTERN OH. OVERALL ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR SUSTAINED
MULTICELLS/TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED WIND
DAMAGE/SEVERE HAIL. WHILE SEVERE TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST ON A
WIDELY SCATTERED BASIS THROUGH EARLY/PARTS OF MID-EVENING...A WATCH
DOES NOT APPEAR IMMINENT BARRING ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION/ORGANIZATION.
..GUYER/THOMPSON.. 06/27/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...GRB...LOT...
MKX...
LAT...LON 44458785 43948619 42648533 41848343 41038271 40308279
40088416 40718595 41838771 43538845 44458785
Flood Statement 17:21:27.6186213
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED AN
* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
NORTHEASTERN DUPAGE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
NORTHEASTERN KANE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
NORTHERN COOK COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
SOUTHERN MCHENRY COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
* UNTIL 930 PM CDT
* AT 517 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. DOPPLER
RADAR ESTIMATED THAT 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN HAD FALLEN IN THE
PAST HOUR OVER SOUTHERN MCHENRY COUNTY WITH THESE STORMS. THESE
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST LAKE
COUNTY AND NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COOK COUNTY THROUGH 6 PM CDT...
AND MAY PRODUCE UP TO AN INCH OF NEW RAINFALL WITHIN A 30 TO 60
MINUTE PERIOD.
* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING TO
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY ALONG SMALL STREAMS AND NEAR LOW WATER
CROSSINGS. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING
INCLUDE...ALGONQUIN...ARLINGTON HEIGHTS...BARRINGTON...BUFFALO
GROVE...CARPENTERSVILLE...CHICAGO...DEERFIELD...DES PLAINES...EAST
DUNDEE...EVANSTON...FRANKLIN PARK...GLENCOE...GLENVIEW...HARWOOD
HEIGHTS AND HIGHLAND PARK.
THE ADVISORY AREA IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE AREA WHICH
RECEIVED VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ON WEDNESDAY.
OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED...
HARPER COLLEGE...LINCOLN PARK ZOO...LOYOLA UNIVERSITY...MCHENRY
COUNTY COLLEGE...MCHENRY COUNTY FAIRGROUNDS...NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS
UNIVERSITY...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THIS STORM WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ON SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...URBAN AREAS...
HIGHWAYS... VIADUCTS...UNDERPASSES AND LOW LYING AREAS.
&&
LAT...LON 4217 8776 4211 8772 4206 8766 4203 8766
4191 8762 4190 8760 4188 8761 4184 8760
4180 8757 4196 8800 4223 8870 4241 8870
* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
NORTHEASTERN DUPAGE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
NORTHEASTERN KANE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
NORTHERN COOK COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
SOUTHERN MCHENRY COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
* UNTIL 930 PM CDT
* AT 517 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. DOPPLER
RADAR ESTIMATED THAT 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN HAD FALLEN IN THE
PAST HOUR OVER SOUTHERN MCHENRY COUNTY WITH THESE STORMS. THESE
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST LAKE
COUNTY AND NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COOK COUNTY THROUGH 6 PM CDT...
AND MAY PRODUCE UP TO AN INCH OF NEW RAINFALL WITHIN A 30 TO 60
MINUTE PERIOD.
* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING TO
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY ALONG SMALL STREAMS AND NEAR LOW WATER
CROSSINGS. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING
INCLUDE...ALGONQUIN...ARLINGTON HEIGHTS...BARRINGTON...BUFFALO
GROVE...CARPENTERSVILLE...CHICAGO...DEERFIELD...DES PLAINES...EAST
DUNDEE...EVANSTON...FRANKLIN PARK...GLENCOE...GLENVIEW...HARWOOD
HEIGHTS AND HIGHLAND PARK.
THE ADVISORY AREA IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE AREA WHICH
RECEIVED VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ON WEDNESDAY.
OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED...
HARPER COLLEGE...LINCOLN PARK ZOO...LOYOLA UNIVERSITY...MCHENRY
COUNTY COLLEGE...MCHENRY COUNTY FAIRGROUNDS...NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS
UNIVERSITY...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THIS STORM WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ON SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...URBAN AREAS...
HIGHWAYS... VIADUCTS...UNDERPASSES AND LOW LYING AREAS.
&&
LAT...LON 4217 8776 4211 8772 4206 8766 4203 8766
4191 8762 4190 8760 4188 8761 4184 8760
4180 8757 4196 8800 4223 8870 4241 8870
Radar Scan Zone Alert
The alert occurred at 05:19 PM on Jun 27 2013.
The site being monitored is LOT in Chicago, IL.
The site is operating in VCP mode 12.
McHenry County Wx triggered the alert because precipitation exceeded 50 dBZ (VIP level 10).
The maximum detected precipitation level is 55 dBZ (VIP level 11).
McHenry County Wx precipitation sensitivity is set to 50.
The current radar product is Short Range Composite Reflectivity (NCR).
The text description for the maximum detected precipitation level is: "2" to 4"/hr very heavy rain: pea to marble sized hail possible".
Special Weather Statement 16:41:43.5950196
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL BOONE AND
WEST CENTRAL MCHENRY COUNTY...
AT 437 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR POPLAR GROVE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.
ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL...WINDS GREATER THAN 40 MPH...BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
CITIES AND TOWNS AFFECTED... WILL STAY OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
WEST CENTRAL MCHENRY COUNTY AND EAST CENTRAL BOONE COUNTY.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO BLOW
AROUND. HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO STANDING WATER ON ROADWAYS AND
POOR VISIBILITY. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM
HAS PASSED.
&&
LAT...LON 4238 8856 4228 8860 4222 8866 4230 8893
4238 8892 4245 8887
TIME...MOT...LOC 2141Z 295DEG 27KT 4235 8878
WEST CENTRAL MCHENRY COUNTY...
AT 437 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR POPLAR GROVE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.
ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL...WINDS GREATER THAN 40 MPH...BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
CITIES AND TOWNS AFFECTED... WILL STAY OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
WEST CENTRAL MCHENRY COUNTY AND EAST CENTRAL BOONE COUNTY.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO BLOW
AROUND. HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO STANDING WATER ON ROADWAYS AND
POOR VISIBILITY. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM
HAS PASSED.
&&
LAT...LON 4238 8856 4228 8860 4222 8866 4230 8893
4238 8892 4245 8887
TIME...MOT...LOC 2141Z 295DEG 27KT 4235 8878
Special Weather Statement 16:28:05.5869215
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN MCHENRY COUNTY UNTIL
445 PM CDT...
AT 424 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM NEAR MARENGO MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.
ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL...WINDS GREATER THAN 40 MPH...BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
CITIES AND TOWNS AFFECTED...HUNTLEY AROUND 440 PM...LAKEWOOD AND
LAKEWOOD AROUND 445 PM.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO BLOW
AROUND. HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO STANDING WATER ON ROADWAYS AND
POOR VISIBILITY. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM
HAS PASSED.
&&
LAT...LON 4229 8834 4216 8837 4217 8851 4220 8862
4232 8865
TIME...MOT...LOC 2126Z 282DEG 20KT 4223 8855
445 PM CDT...
AT 424 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM NEAR MARENGO MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.
ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL...WINDS GREATER THAN 40 MPH...BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
CITIES AND TOWNS AFFECTED...HUNTLEY AROUND 440 PM...LAKEWOOD AND
LAKEWOOD AROUND 445 PM.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO BLOW
AROUND. HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO STANDING WATER ON ROADWAYS AND
POOR VISIBILITY. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM
HAS PASSED.
&&
LAT...LON 4229 8834 4216 8837 4217 8851 4220 8862
4232 8865
TIME...MOT...LOC 2126Z 282DEG 20KT 4223 8855
Flood Potential Outlook 16:20:47.5825852
IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.
...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
VALID PERIOD: 7/3/2013 - 10/1/2013
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
: CHANCES OF EXCEEDING
: FLOOD CATEGORIES
: AS A PERCENTAGE (%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---
:HART DITCH
DYER 12.0 13.0 14.0 : 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:THORN CREEK
THORNTON 10.0 15.0 16.0 : 9 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:LITTLE CALUMET RIVER
MUNSTER 12.0 14.0 17.0 : 27 27 21 16 9 9
SOUTH HOLLAND 16.5 18.0 20.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:KANKAKEE RIVER
DUNNS BRIDGE 10.0 12.0 13.0 : 19 6 <5 <5 <5 <5
KOUTS 11.0 13.0 14.0 : 19 6 <5 <5 <5 <5
SHELBY 9.0 11.0 12.5 : 49 26 21 9 8 8
MOMENCE 5.0 6.5 9.0 : 13 9 <5 <5 <5 <5
:IROQUOIS RIVER
RENSSELAER 12.0 14.0 15.0 : 16 9 6 <5 6 <5
FORESMAN 18.0 22.0 24.0 : 8 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
IROQUOIS 18.0 24.0 25.0 : 31 14 8 <5 6 <5
:SUGAR CREEK
MILFORD 18.0 22.0 26.0 : 31 19 6 <5 <5 <5
:IROQUOIS RIVER
CHEBANSE 16.0 18.0 20.0 : 11 6 9 <5 6 <5
:KANKAKEE RIVER
WILMINGTON 6.5 8.0 10.0 : 13 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:DES PLAINES RIVER
RUSSELL 7.0 9.0 10.0 : 31 11 <5 <5 <5 <5
GURNEE 7.0 9.0 11.0 : 13 6 <5 <5 <5 <5
LINCOLNSHIRE 12.5 14.0 15.5 : 8 6 <5 <5 <5 <5
DES PLAINES 5.0 8.0 9.0 : 11 11 8 <5 8 <5
RIVERSIDE 7.0 8.0 9.0 : 21 9 9 8 8 8
LEMONT 10.0 11.0 12.0 : 29 14 13 11 11 8
:W BR DU PAGE RIVER
WARRENVILLE 11.5 14.5 17.5 : 18 18 <5 <5 <5 <5
:EAST BRANCH DU PAGE RIVER
BOLINGBROOK 19.5 21.0 23.0 : 36 29 14 11 6 6
:DU PAGE RIVER
SHOREWOOD 6.5 8.0 10.0 : 14 13 6 6 <5 <5
:MAZON RIVER
COAL CITY 12.0 14.0 17.0 : 11 8 6 <5 <5 <5
:FOX RIVER
ALGONQUIN TAILWAT 9.5 10.5 12.0 : >95 21 31 13 18 9
MONTGOMERY 13.0 14.0 15.0 : 49 16 11 8 6 <5
DAYTON 12.0 14.0 24.0 : 29 14 19 8 <5 <5
:VERMILION RIVER
PONTIAC 14.0 15.0 18.0 : <5 6 <5 <5 <5 <5
LEONORE 16.0 21.0 26.0 : 19 11 <5 <5 <5 <5
:PECATONICA RIVER
SHIRLAND 12.0 14.0 15.5 : 29 19 18 11 14 <5
:ROCK RIVER
ROCKTON 10.0 11.0 14.0 : >95 14 31 14 9 <5
LATHAM PARK 10.0 11.0 14.0 : >95 14 23 9 8 <5
ROCKFORD 9.0 10.0 11.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:KISHWAUKEE RIVER
BELVIDERE 9.0 10.0 12.0 : 14 6 13 <5 6 <5
:SOUTH BRANCH KISHWAUKEE RIVER
DE KALB 10.0 11.0 12.5 : 13 8 8 6 <5 <5
:KISHWAUKEE RIVER
PERRYVILLE 12.0 18.0 22.0 : 26 18 9 <5 <5 <5
:ROCK RIVER
BYRON 13.0 14.0 16.0 : 31 11 16 <5 6 <5
DIXON 16.0 18.0 20.0 : 18 8 8 <5 <5 <5
:NORTH BRANCH CHICAGO RIVER
CHICAGO ALBANY AV 7.0 7.5 8.0 : 9 6 6 <5 <5 <5
:ILLINOIS RIVER
MORRIS 16.0 18.0 22.0 : 18 9 16 9 6 <5
OTTAWA 463.0 466.0 469.0 : 23 11 13 6 6 6
LA SALLE 20.0 27.0 31.0 : 39 23 9 6 6 6
LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.
...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID PERIOD: 7/3/2013 - 10/1/2013
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:HART DITCH
DYER 2.8 3.0 3.6 4.7 6.3 7.9 17.5
:THORN CREEK
THORNTON 3.4 3.6 4.5 6.3 8.2 10.6 12.7
:LITTLE CALUMET RIVER
MUNSTER 7.8 8.2 9.0 10.1 13.1 17.5 20.6
SOUTH HOLLAND 7.6 7.9 9.1 10.7 12.6 14.0 18.8
:KANKAKEE RIVER
DUNNS BRIDGE 7.2 7.2 7.2 8.0 9.5 11.1 11.7
KOUTS 8.5 8.5 8.5 9.0 10.6 12.3 12.8
SHELBY 8.6 8.6 8.6 9.1 10.6 12.1 15.8
MOMENCE 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.5 4.2 6.0 9.4
:IROQUOIS RIVER
RENSSELAER 4.8 5.6 7.0 9.2 11.3 12.9 17.5
FORESMAN 7.9 8.3 10.4 13.6 15.8 17.9 21.1
IROQUOIS 7.5 7.6 10.1 13.8 19.7 23.6 26.8
:SUGAR CREEK
MILFORD 7.0 7.2 8.2 14.7 18.9 21.4 24.2
:IROQUOIS RIVER
CHEBANSE 5.9 5.9 6.0 9.1 11.7 18.4 20.6
:KANKAKEE RIVER
WILMINGTON 2.4 2.4 2.6 3.5 4.6 7.5 8.0
:DES PLAINES RIVER
RUSSELL 4.9 4.9 4.9 6.1 7.1 7.8 9.7
GURNEE 3.7 3.7 3.7 4.1 5.5 7.5 10.3
LINCOLNSHIRE 8.3 8.3 8.4 9.0 10.2 12.1 15.3
DES PLAINES 1.6 1.6 1.6 2.0 3.4 6.9 11.9
RIVERSIDE 3.6 3.8 4.4 5.1 6.8 8.4 13.0
LEMONT 7.3 7.4 8.0 8.6 10.2 12.3 15.9
:W BR DU PAGE RIVER
WARRENVILLE 8.7 8.9 9.5 10.2 10.7 12.9 13.8
:EAST BRANCH DU PAGE RIVER
BOLINGBROOK 16.6 17.0 17.9 19.1 20.2 21.8 24.3
:DU PAGE RIVER
SHOREWOOD 3.4 3.8 4.2 4.8 5.8 7.5 9.9
:MAZON RIVER
COAL CITY 2.1 2.1 4.3 6.8 9.5 12.8 14.7
:FOX RIVER
ALGONQUIN TAILWAT 10.1 10.1 10.1 10.1 11.4 13.7 15.6
MONTGOMERY 12.9 12.9 12.9 13.0 13.5 14.2 15.3
DAYTON 9.4 9.4 9.5 10.7 13.2 17.0 21.5
:VERMILION RIVER
PONTIAC 3.6 3.7 4.6 6.0 8.3 10.8 17.6
LEONORE 4.8 4.8 6.7 9.7 15.0 18.0 26.9
:PECATONICA RIVER
SHIRLAND 10.9 10.9 10.9 11.0 12.3 16.2 17.1
:ROCK RIVER
ROCKTON 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.6 11.5 14.3 16.1
LATHAM PARK 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.9 13.3 14.6
ROCKFORD 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 5.0 6.7 8.1
:KISHWAUKEE RIVER
BELVIDERE 3.1 3.2 3.7 5.3 7.9 11.2 13.0
:SOUTH BRANCH KISHWAUKEE RIVER
DE KALB 3.6 4.1 5.0 5.8 7.9 10.6 12.1
:KISHWAUKEE RIVER
PERRYVILLE 7.4 7.4 7.9 9.3 12.7 18.2 20.8
:ROCK RIVER
BYRON 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 14.0 16.7 19.4
DIXON 13.7 13.7 13.7 13.7 15.3 17.8 19.5
:NORTH BRANCH CHICAGO RIVER
CHICAGO ALBANY AV 3.7 3.8 4.4 5.1 6.1 7.2 8.9
:ILLINOIS RIVER
MORRIS 6.2 6.6 7.8 10.2 13.9 19.9 24.9
OTTAWA 459.0 459.0 459.2 459.5 462.4 466.9 473.9
LA SALLE 13.5 13.6 14.8 19.1 23.4 29.0 34.0
IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE
VALID TIME PERIOD.
...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID PERIOD: 7/3/2013 - 10/1/2013
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:HART DITCH
DYER 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8
:THORN CREEK
THORNTON 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7
:LITTLE CALUMET RIVER
MUNSTER 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.4
SOUTH HOLLAND 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0
:KANKAKEE RIVER
DUNNS BRIDGE 4.1 4.0 3.7 3.5 3.4 3.2 3.2
KOUTS 4.7 4.6 4.3 4.1 4.0 3.8 3.8
SHELBY 5.5 5.3 5.0 4.8 4.6 4.5 4.4
MOMENCE 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.4
:IROQUOIS RIVER
RENSSELAER 4.0 3.8 3.6 3.5 3.3 3.1 3.1
FORESMAN 6.1 5.6 5.3 5.1 4.7 4.5 4.5
IROQUOIS 5.5 5.0 4.7 4.5 4.1 3.9 3.8
:SUGAR CREEK
MILFORD 3.2 2.8 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5
:IROQUOIS RIVER
CHEBANSE 3.4 3.2 3.0 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.4
:KANKAKEE RIVER
WILMINGTON 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0
:DES PLAINES RIVER
RUSSELL 2.9 2.8 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.4
GURNEE 2.0 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1
LINCOLNSHIRE 6.7 6.4 6.2 6.1 6.0 5.9 5.9
DES PLAINES 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7
RIVERSIDE 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7
LEMONT 5.4 5.3 5.1 5.0 4.8 4.8 4.7
:W BR DU PAGE RIVER
WARRENVILLE 7.2 7.2 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1
:EAST BRANCH DU PAGE RIVER
BOLINGBROOK 14.4 14.4 14.3 14.3 14.3 14.3 14.3
:DU PAGE RIVER
SHOREWOOD 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
:MAZON RIVER
COAL CITY 1.7 1.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
:FOX RIVER
ALGONQUIN TAILWAT 5.7 5.4 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.5
MONTGOMERY 11.4 11.3 11.1 11.1 11.0 11.0 11.0
DAYTON 6.3 5.9 5.5 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.1
:VERMILION RIVER
PONTIAC 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7
LEONORE 4.1 3.9 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.3
:PECATONICA RIVER
SHIRLAND 5.9 5.6 5.0 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.2
:ROCK RIVER
ROCKTON 4.4 3.9 3.4 3.2 3.0 2.9 2.9
LATHAM PARK 5.0 4.6 4.2 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.8
ROCKFORD 2.9 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.4
:KISHWAUKEE RIVER
BELVIDERE 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.2
:SOUTH BRANCH KISHWAUKEE RIVER
DE KALB 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.7
:KISHWAUKEE RIVER
PERRYVILLE 6.1 6.0 5.8 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.4
:ROCK RIVER
BYRON 6.7 6.2 5.7 5.5 5.3 5.2 5.1
DIXON 9.0 8.7 8.3 8.0 7.9 7.7 7.7
:NORTH BRANCH CHICAGO RIVER
CHICAGO ALBANY AV 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1
:ILLINOIS RIVER
MORRIS 5.0 4.9 4.8 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6
OTTAWA 458.5 458.5 458.5 458.5 458.5 458.5 458.5
LA SALLE 11.3 11.1 10.9 10.8 10.7 10.7 10.7
THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A RANGE OF
PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING
DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART
OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE'S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION
SERVICE.
VISIT OUR WEB SITE WEATHER.GOV/LOT FOR MORE WEATHER AND WATER
INFORMATION.
THESE MONTHLY OUTLOOKS ARE TYPICALLY ISSUED DURING THE THIRD OR
FOURTH WEEK OF THE MONTH.
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.
...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
VALID PERIOD: 7/3/2013 - 10/1/2013
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
: CHANCES OF EXCEEDING
: FLOOD CATEGORIES
: AS A PERCENTAGE (%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---
:HART DITCH
DYER 12.0 13.0 14.0 : 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:THORN CREEK
THORNTON 10.0 15.0 16.0 : 9 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:LITTLE CALUMET RIVER
MUNSTER 12.0 14.0 17.0 : 27 27 21 16 9 9
SOUTH HOLLAND 16.5 18.0 20.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:KANKAKEE RIVER
DUNNS BRIDGE 10.0 12.0 13.0 : 19 6 <5 <5 <5 <5
KOUTS 11.0 13.0 14.0 : 19 6 <5 <5 <5 <5
SHELBY 9.0 11.0 12.5 : 49 26 21 9 8 8
MOMENCE 5.0 6.5 9.0 : 13 9 <5 <5 <5 <5
:IROQUOIS RIVER
RENSSELAER 12.0 14.0 15.0 : 16 9 6 <5 6 <5
FORESMAN 18.0 22.0 24.0 : 8 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
IROQUOIS 18.0 24.0 25.0 : 31 14 8 <5 6 <5
:SUGAR CREEK
MILFORD 18.0 22.0 26.0 : 31 19 6 <5 <5 <5
:IROQUOIS RIVER
CHEBANSE 16.0 18.0 20.0 : 11 6 9 <5 6 <5
:KANKAKEE RIVER
WILMINGTON 6.5 8.0 10.0 : 13 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:DES PLAINES RIVER
RUSSELL 7.0 9.0 10.0 : 31 11 <5 <5 <5 <5
GURNEE 7.0 9.0 11.0 : 13 6 <5 <5 <5 <5
LINCOLNSHIRE 12.5 14.0 15.5 : 8 6 <5 <5 <5 <5
DES PLAINES 5.0 8.0 9.0 : 11 11 8 <5 8 <5
RIVERSIDE 7.0 8.0 9.0 : 21 9 9 8 8 8
LEMONT 10.0 11.0 12.0 : 29 14 13 11 11 8
:W BR DU PAGE RIVER
WARRENVILLE 11.5 14.5 17.5 : 18 18 <5 <5 <5 <5
:EAST BRANCH DU PAGE RIVER
BOLINGBROOK 19.5 21.0 23.0 : 36 29 14 11 6 6
:DU PAGE RIVER
SHOREWOOD 6.5 8.0 10.0 : 14 13 6 6 <5 <5
:MAZON RIVER
COAL CITY 12.0 14.0 17.0 : 11 8 6 <5 <5 <5
:FOX RIVER
ALGONQUIN TAILWAT 9.5 10.5 12.0 : >95 21 31 13 18 9
MONTGOMERY 13.0 14.0 15.0 : 49 16 11 8 6 <5
DAYTON 12.0 14.0 24.0 : 29 14 19 8 <5 <5
:VERMILION RIVER
PONTIAC 14.0 15.0 18.0 : <5 6 <5 <5 <5 <5
LEONORE 16.0 21.0 26.0 : 19 11 <5 <5 <5 <5
:PECATONICA RIVER
SHIRLAND 12.0 14.0 15.5 : 29 19 18 11 14 <5
:ROCK RIVER
ROCKTON 10.0 11.0 14.0 : >95 14 31 14 9 <5
LATHAM PARK 10.0 11.0 14.0 : >95 14 23 9 8 <5
ROCKFORD 9.0 10.0 11.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:KISHWAUKEE RIVER
BELVIDERE 9.0 10.0 12.0 : 14 6 13 <5 6 <5
:SOUTH BRANCH KISHWAUKEE RIVER
DE KALB 10.0 11.0 12.5 : 13 8 8 6 <5 <5
:KISHWAUKEE RIVER
PERRYVILLE 12.0 18.0 22.0 : 26 18 9 <5 <5 <5
:ROCK RIVER
BYRON 13.0 14.0 16.0 : 31 11 16 <5 6 <5
DIXON 16.0 18.0 20.0 : 18 8 8 <5 <5 <5
:NORTH BRANCH CHICAGO RIVER
CHICAGO ALBANY AV 7.0 7.5 8.0 : 9 6 6 <5 <5 <5
:ILLINOIS RIVER
MORRIS 16.0 18.0 22.0 : 18 9 16 9 6 <5
OTTAWA 463.0 466.0 469.0 : 23 11 13 6 6 6
LA SALLE 20.0 27.0 31.0 : 39 23 9 6 6 6
LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.
...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID PERIOD: 7/3/2013 - 10/1/2013
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:HART DITCH
DYER 2.8 3.0 3.6 4.7 6.3 7.9 17.5
:THORN CREEK
THORNTON 3.4 3.6 4.5 6.3 8.2 10.6 12.7
:LITTLE CALUMET RIVER
MUNSTER 7.8 8.2 9.0 10.1 13.1 17.5 20.6
SOUTH HOLLAND 7.6 7.9 9.1 10.7 12.6 14.0 18.8
:KANKAKEE RIVER
DUNNS BRIDGE 7.2 7.2 7.2 8.0 9.5 11.1 11.7
KOUTS 8.5 8.5 8.5 9.0 10.6 12.3 12.8
SHELBY 8.6 8.6 8.6 9.1 10.6 12.1 15.8
MOMENCE 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.5 4.2 6.0 9.4
:IROQUOIS RIVER
RENSSELAER 4.8 5.6 7.0 9.2 11.3 12.9 17.5
FORESMAN 7.9 8.3 10.4 13.6 15.8 17.9 21.1
IROQUOIS 7.5 7.6 10.1 13.8 19.7 23.6 26.8
:SUGAR CREEK
MILFORD 7.0 7.2 8.2 14.7 18.9 21.4 24.2
:IROQUOIS RIVER
CHEBANSE 5.9 5.9 6.0 9.1 11.7 18.4 20.6
:KANKAKEE RIVER
WILMINGTON 2.4 2.4 2.6 3.5 4.6 7.5 8.0
:DES PLAINES RIVER
RUSSELL 4.9 4.9 4.9 6.1 7.1 7.8 9.7
GURNEE 3.7 3.7 3.7 4.1 5.5 7.5 10.3
LINCOLNSHIRE 8.3 8.3 8.4 9.0 10.2 12.1 15.3
DES PLAINES 1.6 1.6 1.6 2.0 3.4 6.9 11.9
RIVERSIDE 3.6 3.8 4.4 5.1 6.8 8.4 13.0
LEMONT 7.3 7.4 8.0 8.6 10.2 12.3 15.9
:W BR DU PAGE RIVER
WARRENVILLE 8.7 8.9 9.5 10.2 10.7 12.9 13.8
:EAST BRANCH DU PAGE RIVER
BOLINGBROOK 16.6 17.0 17.9 19.1 20.2 21.8 24.3
:DU PAGE RIVER
SHOREWOOD 3.4 3.8 4.2 4.8 5.8 7.5 9.9
:MAZON RIVER
COAL CITY 2.1 2.1 4.3 6.8 9.5 12.8 14.7
:FOX RIVER
ALGONQUIN TAILWAT 10.1 10.1 10.1 10.1 11.4 13.7 15.6
MONTGOMERY 12.9 12.9 12.9 13.0 13.5 14.2 15.3
DAYTON 9.4 9.4 9.5 10.7 13.2 17.0 21.5
:VERMILION RIVER
PONTIAC 3.6 3.7 4.6 6.0 8.3 10.8 17.6
LEONORE 4.8 4.8 6.7 9.7 15.0 18.0 26.9
:PECATONICA RIVER
SHIRLAND 10.9 10.9 10.9 11.0 12.3 16.2 17.1
:ROCK RIVER
ROCKTON 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.6 11.5 14.3 16.1
LATHAM PARK 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.9 13.3 14.6
ROCKFORD 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 5.0 6.7 8.1
:KISHWAUKEE RIVER
BELVIDERE 3.1 3.2 3.7 5.3 7.9 11.2 13.0
:SOUTH BRANCH KISHWAUKEE RIVER
DE KALB 3.6 4.1 5.0 5.8 7.9 10.6 12.1
:KISHWAUKEE RIVER
PERRYVILLE 7.4 7.4 7.9 9.3 12.7 18.2 20.8
:ROCK RIVER
BYRON 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 14.0 16.7 19.4
DIXON 13.7 13.7 13.7 13.7 15.3 17.8 19.5
:NORTH BRANCH CHICAGO RIVER
CHICAGO ALBANY AV 3.7 3.8 4.4 5.1 6.1 7.2 8.9
:ILLINOIS RIVER
MORRIS 6.2 6.6 7.8 10.2 13.9 19.9 24.9
OTTAWA 459.0 459.0 459.2 459.5 462.4 466.9 473.9
LA SALLE 13.5 13.6 14.8 19.1 23.4 29.0 34.0
IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE
VALID TIME PERIOD.
...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID PERIOD: 7/3/2013 - 10/1/2013
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:HART DITCH
DYER 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8
:THORN CREEK
THORNTON 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7
:LITTLE CALUMET RIVER
MUNSTER 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.4
SOUTH HOLLAND 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0
:KANKAKEE RIVER
DUNNS BRIDGE 4.1 4.0 3.7 3.5 3.4 3.2 3.2
KOUTS 4.7 4.6 4.3 4.1 4.0 3.8 3.8
SHELBY 5.5 5.3 5.0 4.8 4.6 4.5 4.4
MOMENCE 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.4
:IROQUOIS RIVER
RENSSELAER 4.0 3.8 3.6 3.5 3.3 3.1 3.1
FORESMAN 6.1 5.6 5.3 5.1 4.7 4.5 4.5
IROQUOIS 5.5 5.0 4.7 4.5 4.1 3.9 3.8
:SUGAR CREEK
MILFORD 3.2 2.8 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5
:IROQUOIS RIVER
CHEBANSE 3.4 3.2 3.0 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.4
:KANKAKEE RIVER
WILMINGTON 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0
:DES PLAINES RIVER
RUSSELL 2.9 2.8 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.4
GURNEE 2.0 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1
LINCOLNSHIRE 6.7 6.4 6.2 6.1 6.0 5.9 5.9
DES PLAINES 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7
RIVERSIDE 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7
LEMONT 5.4 5.3 5.1 5.0 4.8 4.8 4.7
:W BR DU PAGE RIVER
WARRENVILLE 7.2 7.2 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1
:EAST BRANCH DU PAGE RIVER
BOLINGBROOK 14.4 14.4 14.3 14.3 14.3 14.3 14.3
:DU PAGE RIVER
SHOREWOOD 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
:MAZON RIVER
COAL CITY 1.7 1.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
:FOX RIVER
ALGONQUIN TAILWAT 5.7 5.4 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.5
MONTGOMERY 11.4 11.3 11.1 11.1 11.0 11.0 11.0
DAYTON 6.3 5.9 5.5 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.1
:VERMILION RIVER
PONTIAC 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7
LEONORE 4.1 3.9 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.3
:PECATONICA RIVER
SHIRLAND 5.9 5.6 5.0 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.2
:ROCK RIVER
ROCKTON 4.4 3.9 3.4 3.2 3.0 2.9 2.9
LATHAM PARK 5.0 4.6 4.2 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.8
ROCKFORD 2.9 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.4
:KISHWAUKEE RIVER
BELVIDERE 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.2
:SOUTH BRANCH KISHWAUKEE RIVER
DE KALB 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.7
:KISHWAUKEE RIVER
PERRYVILLE 6.1 6.0 5.8 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.4
:ROCK RIVER
BYRON 6.7 6.2 5.7 5.5 5.3 5.2 5.1
DIXON 9.0 8.7 8.3 8.0 7.9 7.7 7.7
:NORTH BRANCH CHICAGO RIVER
CHICAGO ALBANY AV 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1
:ILLINOIS RIVER
MORRIS 5.0 4.9 4.8 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6
OTTAWA 458.5 458.5 458.5 458.5 458.5 458.5 458.5
LA SALLE 11.3 11.1 10.9 10.8 10.7 10.7 10.7
THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A RANGE OF
PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING
DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART
OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE'S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION
SERVICE.
VISIT OUR WEB SITE WEATHER.GOV/LOT FOR MORE WEATHER AND WATER
INFORMATION.
THESE MONTHLY OUTLOOKS ARE TYPICALLY ISSUED DURING THE THIRD OR
FOURTH WEEK OF THE MONTH.
Mesoscale Discussion 12:43:55.4537665
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS WI...EXTREME NERN IL...LM...SRN UPPER
MI...WRN LOWER MI.
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 271742Z - 272015Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SVR POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE THROUGH AFTN OVER DISCUSSION
AREA TO EXTENT THAT INITIALLY ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER PARTS OF NRN
AND CENTRAL WI CAN GROW UPSCALE WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
POSSIBLE. MAIN CONCERNS ARE LARGE HAIL AND SPORADIC DAMAGING GUSTS.
DISCUSSION...SFC PATTERN IS RATHER SUBTLE AND FRAGMENTED ACROSS THIS
AREA...WITH POCKETS OF STRONGER VERSUS WEAKER MOISTURE/MIXING AND
HEATING AWAY FROM LM MARINE LAYER. MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS AND
MODIFIED RAOBS SUGGEST AIR MASS ACROSS THIS REGION ESSENTIALLY HAS
LOST MLCINH. SFC DEW POINTS HAVE MIXED DOWN A FEW DEG F DURING LAST
1-2 HOURS FROM PEAK VALUES AT SEVERAL STATIONS IN WI...OFFSET ENOUGH
BY SFC DIABATIC HEATING TO MAINTAIN MLCAPE 1000-2000 J/KG. BUOYANCY
SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED WITHIN ABOUT 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF
MOISTURE/THETAE AXIS DRAWN FROM SERN IL NNWWD ACROSS S-CENTRAL/WRN
WI. WELL-MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYER WILL SUPPORT DOWNDRAFT ACCELERATION
AS WELL AS MAINTENANCE TO SFC OF ANY SVR HAIL GENERATED ALOFT.
VEERED LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL LIMIT BOUNDARY-LAYER CONVERGENCE AND
HODOGRAPH SIZE. HOWEVER...DEEP SHEAR IS ENHANCED AROUND SRN RIM OF
MID-UPPER PERTURBATION THAT IS EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY
OVER LS. THAT...ALONG WITH BUILDING RIDGE OVER SWRN CONUS...SHOULD
MAINTAIN ENHANCED GRADIENT FLOW ALOFT FOR EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES
RANGING FROM AROUND 60 KT OVER WRN WI TO AROUND 30 KT OVER WRN LM.
..EDWARDS/KERR.. 06/27/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...APX...IWX...GRR...MQT...GRB...LOT...MKX...DLH...
ARX...MPX...
LAT...LON 46069010 45608712 43738543 42388590 41918708 42418906
43989077 45079114 46069010
MI...WRN LOWER MI.
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 271742Z - 272015Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SVR POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE THROUGH AFTN OVER DISCUSSION
AREA TO EXTENT THAT INITIALLY ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER PARTS OF NRN
AND CENTRAL WI CAN GROW UPSCALE WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
POSSIBLE. MAIN CONCERNS ARE LARGE HAIL AND SPORADIC DAMAGING GUSTS.
DISCUSSION...SFC PATTERN IS RATHER SUBTLE AND FRAGMENTED ACROSS THIS
AREA...WITH POCKETS OF STRONGER VERSUS WEAKER MOISTURE/MIXING AND
HEATING AWAY FROM LM MARINE LAYER. MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS AND
MODIFIED RAOBS SUGGEST AIR MASS ACROSS THIS REGION ESSENTIALLY HAS
LOST MLCINH. SFC DEW POINTS HAVE MIXED DOWN A FEW DEG F DURING LAST
1-2 HOURS FROM PEAK VALUES AT SEVERAL STATIONS IN WI...OFFSET ENOUGH
BY SFC DIABATIC HEATING TO MAINTAIN MLCAPE 1000-2000 J/KG. BUOYANCY
SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED WITHIN ABOUT 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF
MOISTURE/THETAE AXIS DRAWN FROM SERN IL NNWWD ACROSS S-CENTRAL/WRN
WI. WELL-MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYER WILL SUPPORT DOWNDRAFT ACCELERATION
AS WELL AS MAINTENANCE TO SFC OF ANY SVR HAIL GENERATED ALOFT.
VEERED LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL LIMIT BOUNDARY-LAYER CONVERGENCE AND
HODOGRAPH SIZE. HOWEVER...DEEP SHEAR IS ENHANCED AROUND SRN RIM OF
MID-UPPER PERTURBATION THAT IS EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY
OVER LS. THAT...ALONG WITH BUILDING RIDGE OVER SWRN CONUS...SHOULD
MAINTAIN ENHANCED GRADIENT FLOW ALOFT FOR EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES
RANGING FROM AROUND 60 KT OVER WRN WI TO AROUND 30 KT OVER WRN LM.
..EDWARDS/KERR.. 06/27/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...APX...IWX...GRR...MQT...GRB...LOT...MKX...DLH...
ARX...MPX...
LAT...LON 46069010 45608712 43738543 42388590 41918708 42418906
43989077 45079114 46069010
Flash Flood Statement 10:01:20.3571920
...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR LAKE AND MCHENRY
COUNTIES WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 1000 AM CDT...
EXCESS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA. IT HAS
BEEN REPORTED THROUGH EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT THAT STREAMS AND CREEKS
IN THE WARNED AREA HAVE RECEDED...ENDING MUCH OF THE FLOOD THREAT. A
HANDFUL OF ROADS MAY STILL HAVE WATER OVER THEM...ESPECIALLY IN
LOW-LYING AREAS. IF ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADWAYS...DO NOT DRIVE
THROUGH. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
SOME OF THEM MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...HOWEVER THEY SHOULD BE
MOVING AT A QUICK ENOUGH RATE OF SPEED TO NOT PRESENT A WIDESPREAD
FLOOD THREAT AGAIN.
IF FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED...PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.
LAT...LON 4226 8782 4216 8775 4216 8870 4249 8871
4250 8813
COUNTIES WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 1000 AM CDT...
EXCESS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA. IT HAS
BEEN REPORTED THROUGH EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT THAT STREAMS AND CREEKS
IN THE WARNED AREA HAVE RECEDED...ENDING MUCH OF THE FLOOD THREAT. A
HANDFUL OF ROADS MAY STILL HAVE WATER OVER THEM...ESPECIALLY IN
LOW-LYING AREAS. IF ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADWAYS...DO NOT DRIVE
THROUGH. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
SOME OF THEM MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...HOWEVER THEY SHOULD BE
MOVING AT A QUICK ENOUGH RATE OF SPEED TO NOT PRESENT A WIDESPREAD
FLOOD THREAT AGAIN.
IF FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED...PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.
LAT...LON 4226 8782 4216 8775 4216 8870 4249 8871
4250 8813
Flood Statement 09:25:36.3359664
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
THE FOX RIVER AT ALGONQUIN TAILWATER.
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT 830 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.7 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.5 FEET.
* RECENT ACTIVITY...FLOOD FORECASTS FOR ALGONQUIN WERE MOVED TO THIS
LOCATION ON JULY 5 2011. GAGE ZERO DATUM IS DIFFERENT FROM THE OLD
GAGE LOCATION. FLOOD AND ACTION STAGES HAVE CHANGED.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 10.9 FEET BY
SUNDAY EVENING. ADDITIONAL RISES MAY BE POSSIBLE THEREAFTER.
THE FOX RIVER AT ALGONQUIN TAILWATER.
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT 830 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.7 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.5 FEET.
* RECENT ACTIVITY...FLOOD FORECASTS FOR ALGONQUIN WERE MOVED TO THIS
LOCATION ON JULY 5 2011. GAGE ZERO DATUM IS DIFFERENT FROM THE OLD
GAGE LOCATION. FLOOD AND ACTION STAGES HAVE CHANGED.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 10.9 FEET BY
SUNDAY EVENING. ADDITIONAL RISES MAY BE POSSIBLE THEREAFTER.
Flash Flood Statement 06:14:15.2223044
...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LAKE AND MCHENRY
COUNTIES UNTIL 1000 AM CDT...
AT 602 AM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED THAT FLASH
FLOODING CONTINUED TO BE A PROBLEM. WATER IS STILL RISING IN SOME
LOCATIONS...NUMEROUS ROADS ARE STILL CLOSED...AND ADDITIONAL ROADS
MAY NEED TO BE CLOSED TODAY.
SOME LOCATIONS THAT COULD EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...ALGONQUIN...
BUFFALO GROVE...DEERFIELD...FOX LAKE...GAGES LAKE...GRAYSLAKE...
HARVARD...HIGHLAND PARK...ISLAND LAKE...LAKE FOREST...LAKE VILLA...
LAKE ZURICH...LIBERTYVILLE...LINCOLNSHIRE AND LONG GROVE.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THIS STORM WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ON SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...URBAN AREAS...
HIGHWAYS... UNDERPASSES AND LOW LYING AREAS.
&&
LAT...LON 4226 8782 4216 8775 4216 8870 4249 8871
4250 8813
COUNTIES UNTIL 1000 AM CDT...
AT 602 AM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED THAT FLASH
FLOODING CONTINUED TO BE A PROBLEM. WATER IS STILL RISING IN SOME
LOCATIONS...NUMEROUS ROADS ARE STILL CLOSED...AND ADDITIONAL ROADS
MAY NEED TO BE CLOSED TODAY.
SOME LOCATIONS THAT COULD EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...ALGONQUIN...
BUFFALO GROVE...DEERFIELD...FOX LAKE...GAGES LAKE...GRAYSLAKE...
HARVARD...HIGHLAND PARK...ISLAND LAKE...LAKE FOREST...LAKE VILLA...
LAKE ZURICH...LIBERTYVILLE...LINCOLNSHIRE AND LONG GROVE.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THIS STORM WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ON SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...URBAN AREAS...
HIGHWAYS... UNDERPASSES AND LOW LYING AREAS.
&&
LAT...LON 4226 8782 4216 8775 4216 8870 4249 8871
4250 8813
Wednesday, June 26, 2013
Flash Flood Statement 21:53:29.7802091
...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN COOK...LAKE...
BOONE...MCHENRY AND NORTHERN KANE COUNTIES UNTIL 1000 AM CDT
THURSDAY...
AT 951 PM CDT...SIGNIFICANT FLOODING CONTINUED ACROSS THE WARNED
AREA. WHILE NO ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED...FLOODING
WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING AFTER
FOUR TO SIX INCHES OF RAINFALL...AND A FEW LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...
WHICH FELL ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME AREA RIVERS WILL
CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THURSDAY AS RUNOFF FROM SMALLER TRIBUTARIES
CONTINUES.
SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...ALGONQUIN...
ARLINGTON HEIGHTS...BARRINGTON...BELVIDERE...BUFFALO GROVE...
CARPENTERSVILLE...CHICAGO...DEERFIELD...DES PLAINES...EAST DUNDEE...
EVANSTON...FOX LAKE...FRANKLIN PARK...GAGES LAKE AND GLENCOE.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THIS STORM WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ON SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...URBAN AREAS...
HIGHWAYS... UNDERPASSES AND LOW LYING AREAS.
MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
BRIDGES...DIPS...OR OTHER LOW SPOTS IF WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY.
NEVER TRY TO CROSS A FLOWING STREAM...EVEN A SMALL ONE...ON FOOT OR
IN A VEHICLE.
&&
LAT...LON 4226 8782 4196 8762 4185 8761 4194 8792
4199 8793 4199 8808 4215 8859 4216 8873
4231 8894 4249 8894 4250 8813
BOONE...MCHENRY AND NORTHERN KANE COUNTIES UNTIL 1000 AM CDT
THURSDAY...
AT 951 PM CDT...SIGNIFICANT FLOODING CONTINUED ACROSS THE WARNED
AREA. WHILE NO ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED...FLOODING
WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING AFTER
FOUR TO SIX INCHES OF RAINFALL...AND A FEW LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...
WHICH FELL ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME AREA RIVERS WILL
CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THURSDAY AS RUNOFF FROM SMALLER TRIBUTARIES
CONTINUES.
SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...ALGONQUIN...
ARLINGTON HEIGHTS...BARRINGTON...BELVIDERE...BUFFALO GROVE...
CARPENTERSVILLE...CHICAGO...DEERFIELD...DES PLAINES...EAST DUNDEE...
EVANSTON...FOX LAKE...FRANKLIN PARK...GAGES LAKE AND GLENCOE.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THIS STORM WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ON SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...URBAN AREAS...
HIGHWAYS... UNDERPASSES AND LOW LYING AREAS.
MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
BRIDGES...DIPS...OR OTHER LOW SPOTS IF WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY.
NEVER TRY TO CROSS A FLOWING STREAM...EVEN A SMALL ONE...ON FOOT OR
IN A VEHICLE.
&&
LAT...LON 4226 8782 4196 8762 4185 8761 4194 8792
4199 8793 4199 8808 4215 8859 4216 8873
4231 8894 4249 8894 4250 8813
Flood Statement 21:53:26.7801794
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
THE FOX RIVER AT ALGONQUIN TAILWATER.
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT 930 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.7 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.5 FEET.
* RECENT ACTIVITY...FLOOD FORECASTS FOR ALGONQUIN WERE MOVED TO THIS
LOCATION ON JULY 5 2011. GAGE ZERO DATUM IS DIFFERENT FROM THE OLD
GAGE LOCATION. FLOOD AND ACTION STAGES HAVE CHANGED.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER CRESTED NEAR 11.0 FEET WEDNESDAY MORNING...
AND WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 10.0 FEET AND 11.0 FEET THROUGH NEXT
WEDNESDAY.
THE FOX RIVER AT ALGONQUIN TAILWATER.
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT 930 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.7 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.5 FEET.
* RECENT ACTIVITY...FLOOD FORECASTS FOR ALGONQUIN WERE MOVED TO THIS
LOCATION ON JULY 5 2011. GAGE ZERO DATUM IS DIFFERENT FROM THE OLD
GAGE LOCATION. FLOOD AND ACTION STAGES HAVE CHANGED.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER CRESTED NEAR 11.0 FEET WEDNESDAY MORNING...
AND WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 10.0 FEET AND 11.0 FEET THROUGH NEXT
WEDNESDAY.
Flash Flood Warning 16:28:46.5873273
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR URBAN AREAS AND SMALL STREAMS IN...
BOONE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
LAKE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
MCHENRY COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
NORTHERN COOK COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
NORTHERN KANE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
* UNTIL 1000 AM CDT THURSDAY
* AT 430 PM CDT...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCIES CONTINUED TO REPORT
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. WHILE NO ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED...FLOODING WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE
ACROSS THE WARNED AREA DUE TO FOUR TO SIX INCHES OF RAIN...WITH A
FEW LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...WHICH FELL ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
WEDNESDAY. SOME AREA RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THURSDAY AS
RUNOFF FROM SMALLER TRIBUTARIES CONTINUES.
* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...ALGONQUIN...
ARLINGTON HEIGHTS...BARRINGTON...BELVIDERE...BUFFALO GROVE...
CARPENTERSVILLE...CHICAGO...DEERFIELD...DES PLAINES...EAST
DUNDEE...EVANSTON...FOX LAKE...FRANKLIN PARK...GAGES LAKE AND
GLENCOE.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE
FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS...VIADUCTS...AND
UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...COUNTRY ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE
BANKS OF CREEKS...STREAMS AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO
FLOODING.
FLOODING IS OCCURRING. MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.
DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS WATER COVERED BRIDGES...DIPS...OR LOW WATER
CROSSINGS. NEVER TRY TO CROSS A FLOWING STREAM... EVEN A SMALL
ONE...ON FOOT OR IN A VEHICLE.
&&
LAT...LON 4226 8782 4196 8762 4185 8761 4194 8792
4199 8793 4199 8808 4215 8859 4216 8873
4231 8894 4249 8894 4250 8813
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR URBAN AREAS AND SMALL STREAMS IN...
BOONE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
LAKE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
MCHENRY COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
NORTHERN COOK COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
NORTHERN KANE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
* UNTIL 1000 AM CDT THURSDAY
* AT 430 PM CDT...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCIES CONTINUED TO REPORT
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. WHILE NO ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED...FLOODING WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE
ACROSS THE WARNED AREA DUE TO FOUR TO SIX INCHES OF RAIN...WITH A
FEW LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...WHICH FELL ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
WEDNESDAY. SOME AREA RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THURSDAY AS
RUNOFF FROM SMALLER TRIBUTARIES CONTINUES.
* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...ALGONQUIN...
ARLINGTON HEIGHTS...BARRINGTON...BELVIDERE...BUFFALO GROVE...
CARPENTERSVILLE...CHICAGO...DEERFIELD...DES PLAINES...EAST
DUNDEE...EVANSTON...FOX LAKE...FRANKLIN PARK...GAGES LAKE AND
GLENCOE.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE
FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS...VIADUCTS...AND
UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...COUNTRY ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE
BANKS OF CREEKS...STREAMS AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO
FLOODING.
FLOODING IS OCCURRING. MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.
DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS WATER COVERED BRIDGES...DIPS...OR LOW WATER
CROSSINGS. NEVER TRY TO CROSS A FLOWING STREAM... EVEN A SMALL
ONE...ON FOOT OR IN A VEHICLE.
&&
LAT...LON 4226 8782 4196 8762 4185 8761 4194 8792
4199 8793 4199 8808 4215 8859 4216 8873
4231 8894 4249 8894 4250 8813
Flash Flood Statement 13:57:55.4977225
...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN COOK...LAKE...
NORTHEASTERN DUPAGE...EASTERN BOONE...MCHENRY AND NORTHERN KANE
COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM CDT...
AT 143 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT
OVER 9 INCHES OF RAIN MAY HAVE FALLEN IN SOUTHWESTERN LAKE
COUNTY...NEAR NORTH BARRINGTON. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR ALSO
INDICATED A SWATH OF RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES FROM WOODSTOCK
TO WHEELING.
SOME LOCATIONS THAT HAVE EXPERIENCED FLOODING INCLUDE...ALGONQUIN...
ARLINGTON HEIGHTS...BARRINGTON...BUFFALO GROVE...CARPENTERSVILLE...
CHICAGO...DEERFIELD...DES PLAINES...EAST DUNDEE...ELGIN...EVANSTON...
FOX LAKE...FRANKLIN PARK...MCHENRY AND WOODSTOCK.
OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED...
CHAIN O LAKES STATE PARK...COLLEGE OF LAKE COUNTY...HARPER COLLEGE...
LAKE COUNTY IL FAIRGROUNDS...LAKE FOREST COLLEGE...LINCOLN PARK
ZOO...LOYOLA UNIVERSITY...MCHENRY COUNTY COLLEGE...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THESE STORMS HAS CAUSED FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...COUNTRY ROADS...AS WELL AS FARMLAND ALONG THE
BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.
MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
BRIDGES...DIPS...OR OTHER LOW SPOTS IF WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY.
NEVER TRY TO CROSS A FLOWING STREAM...EVEN A SMALL ONE...ON FOOT OR
IN A VEHICLE.
&&
LAT...LON 4226 8782 4196 8762 4185 8761 4212 8859
4215 8859 4216 8873 4249 8882 4250 8813
NORTHEASTERN DUPAGE...EASTERN BOONE...MCHENRY AND NORTHERN KANE
COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM CDT...
AT 143 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT
OVER 9 INCHES OF RAIN MAY HAVE FALLEN IN SOUTHWESTERN LAKE
COUNTY...NEAR NORTH BARRINGTON. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR ALSO
INDICATED A SWATH OF RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES FROM WOODSTOCK
TO WHEELING.
SOME LOCATIONS THAT HAVE EXPERIENCED FLOODING INCLUDE...ALGONQUIN...
ARLINGTON HEIGHTS...BARRINGTON...BUFFALO GROVE...CARPENTERSVILLE...
CHICAGO...DEERFIELD...DES PLAINES...EAST DUNDEE...ELGIN...EVANSTON...
FOX LAKE...FRANKLIN PARK...MCHENRY AND WOODSTOCK.
OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED...
CHAIN O LAKES STATE PARK...COLLEGE OF LAKE COUNTY...HARPER COLLEGE...
LAKE COUNTY IL FAIRGROUNDS...LAKE FOREST COLLEGE...LINCOLN PARK
ZOO...LOYOLA UNIVERSITY...MCHENRY COUNTY COLLEGE...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THESE STORMS HAS CAUSED FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...COUNTRY ROADS...AS WELL AS FARMLAND ALONG THE
BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.
MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
BRIDGES...DIPS...OR OTHER LOW SPOTS IF WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY.
NEVER TRY TO CROSS A FLOWING STREAM...EVEN A SMALL ONE...ON FOOT OR
IN A VEHICLE.
&&
LAT...LON 4226 8782 4196 8762 4185 8761 4212 8859
4215 8859 4216 8873 4249 8882 4250 8813
Flash Flood Statement 12:16:31.4374909
...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN COOK...LAKE...
NORTHEASTERN DUPAGE...EASTERN BOONE...MCHENRY AND NORTHERN KANE
COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM CDT...
AT 1208 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AN
AREA OF MODERATE RAINFALL OVER MCHENRY COUNTY WHILE RAINFALL HAS
ENDED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WARNING AREA.
WHILE RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL ONLY OVER MCHENRY COUNTY...RUNOFF FROM
PREVIOUS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO CONTINUE.
SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...ALGONQUIN...
ARLINGTON HEIGHTS...BARRINGTON...BUFFALO GROVE...CARPENTERSVILLE...
CHICAGO...DEERFIELD...DES PLAINES...EAST DUNDEE...ELGIN...
EVANSTON...FOX LAKE...FRANKLIN PARK...GAGES LAKE AND GLENCOE.
TRAINED SPOTTERS AND OBSERVERS HAVE REPORTED WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 3
TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL ACROSS MCHENRY...SOUTHERN LAKE AND NORTHERN
COOK COUNTIES...WITH UP TO 6 INCHES NEAR ALGONQUIN.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THIS STORM WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS
AND STREAMS...COUNTRY ROADS...NORMALLY DRY WASHES... AS WELL AS
FARMLAND ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.
MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
BRIDGES...DIPS...OR OTHER LOW SPOTS IF WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY.
NEVER TRY TO CROSS A FLOWING STREAM...EVEN A SMALL ONE...ON FOOT OR
IN A VEHICLE.
&&
LAT...LON 4226 8782 4196 8762 4185 8761 4212 8859
4215 8859 4216 8873 4249 8882 4250 8813
NORTHEASTERN DUPAGE...EASTERN BOONE...MCHENRY AND NORTHERN KANE
COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM CDT...
AT 1208 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AN
AREA OF MODERATE RAINFALL OVER MCHENRY COUNTY WHILE RAINFALL HAS
ENDED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WARNING AREA.
WHILE RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL ONLY OVER MCHENRY COUNTY...RUNOFF FROM
PREVIOUS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO CONTINUE.
SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...ALGONQUIN...
ARLINGTON HEIGHTS...BARRINGTON...BUFFALO GROVE...CARPENTERSVILLE...
CHICAGO...DEERFIELD...DES PLAINES...EAST DUNDEE...ELGIN...
EVANSTON...FOX LAKE...FRANKLIN PARK...GAGES LAKE AND GLENCOE.
TRAINED SPOTTERS AND OBSERVERS HAVE REPORTED WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 3
TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL ACROSS MCHENRY...SOUTHERN LAKE AND NORTHERN
COOK COUNTIES...WITH UP TO 6 INCHES NEAR ALGONQUIN.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THIS STORM WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS
AND STREAMS...COUNTRY ROADS...NORMALLY DRY WASHES... AS WELL AS
FARMLAND ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.
MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
BRIDGES...DIPS...OR OTHER LOW SPOTS IF WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY.
NEVER TRY TO CROSS A FLOWING STREAM...EVEN A SMALL ONE...ON FOOT OR
IN A VEHICLE.
&&
LAT...LON 4226 8782 4196 8762 4185 8761 4212 8859
4215 8859 4216 8873 4249 8882 4250 8813
Flash Flood Watch 12:06:11.4313529
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS...NORTH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL HAS ENDED
ACROSS THE AREA.
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS...NORTH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL HAS ENDED
ACROSS THE AREA.
Test Message 11:00:15.3921885
THIS IS THE WEEKLY TEST OF THE WXWARN1 ALERT SYSTEM THIS IS ONLY A TEST
Flash Flood Watch 10:43:58.3825162
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT /8 PM EDT/
THIS EVENING...
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR
* PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS AND INDIANA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING
AREAS...IN ILLINOIS...BOONE...COOK...DE KALB...DUPAGE...FORD...
GRUNDY...IROQUOIS...KANE...KANKAKEE...KENDALL...LA SALLE...
LAKE IL...LEE...LIVINGSTON...MCHENRY...OGLE...WILL AND
WINNEBAGO. IN INDIANA...BENTON...JASPER...LAKE IN...NEWTON AND
PORTER.
* UNTIL 7 PM CDT...8 PM EDT...THIS EVENING.
* THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA...AND NEW STORMS THAT MAY
DEVELOP LATER TODAY...WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES PER HOUR IN ISOLATED
AREAS. THIS...ON TOP OF ALREADY SATURATED GROUND FROM RECENT
STORMS COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING OR WORSEN THE ONGOING
FLOODING. THE THREAT FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL DIMINISH
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
* RAPID FLOODING OF CREEKS...SMALL STREAMS...ROADS...VIADUCTS...
AND LOW LYING AREAS IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.
YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.
&&
THIS EVENING...
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR
* PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS AND INDIANA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING
AREAS...IN ILLINOIS...BOONE...COOK...DE KALB...DUPAGE...FORD...
GRUNDY...IROQUOIS...KANE...KANKAKEE...KENDALL...LA SALLE...
LAKE IL...LEE...LIVINGSTON...MCHENRY...OGLE...WILL AND
WINNEBAGO. IN INDIANA...BENTON...JASPER...LAKE IN...NEWTON AND
PORTER.
* UNTIL 7 PM CDT...8 PM EDT...THIS EVENING.
* THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA...AND NEW STORMS THAT MAY
DEVELOP LATER TODAY...WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES PER HOUR IN ISOLATED
AREAS. THIS...ON TOP OF ALREADY SATURATED GROUND FROM RECENT
STORMS COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING OR WORSEN THE ONGOING
FLOODING. THE THREAT FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL DIMINISH
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
* RAPID FLOODING OF CREEKS...SMALL STREAMS...ROADS...VIADUCTS...
AND LOW LYING AREAS IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.
YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.
&&
Flash Flood Statement 10:40:43.3805857
...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN COOK...
LAKE...EASTERN BOONE AND MCHENRY COUNTIES HAS BEEN REPLACED BY A NEW
FLASH FLOOD WARNING...
LAT...LON 4238 8783 4223 8781 4210 8771 4195 8763
4204 8824 4215 8824 4215 8874 4250 8883
LAKE...EASTERN BOONE AND MCHENRY COUNTIES HAS BEEN REPLACED BY A NEW
FLASH FLOOD WARNING...
LAT...LON 4238 8783 4223 8781 4210 8771 4195 8763
4204 8824 4215 8824 4215 8874 4250 8883
Flash Flood Warning 10:38:30.3792690
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR URBAN AREAS AND SMALL STREAMS IN...
EASTERN BOONE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
LAKE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
MCHENRY COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
NORTHEASTERN DUPAGE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
NORTHERN COOK COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
NORTHERN KANE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
* UNTIL 430 PM CDT
* AT 1030 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE
WARNED AREA. 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN A SWATH ACROSS
MCHENRY...SOUTHERN LAKE AND NORTHERN COOK COUNTIES EARLY THIS
MORNING. RADAR INDICATES ANOTHER AREA OF HEAVY RAIN MOVING INTO
MCHENRY COUNTY LATE THIS MORNING. RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
PER HOUR WERE INDICATED.
* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
ALGONQUIN...ARLINGTON HEIGHTS...BARRINGTON...BUFFALO GROVE...
CARPENTERSVILLE...CHICAGO...DEERFIELD...DES PLAINES...EAST
DUNDEE...ELGIN...EVANSTON...FOX LAKE...FRANKLIN PARK...GAGES LAKE
AND GLENCOE.
MANY ROADS WERE FLOODED AS WELL AS CREEKS...SMALL STREAMS AND
DRAINAGE AREAS.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES
AS WELL AS OTHER DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.
FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR IS IMMINENT. MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS OCCUR
IN VEHICLES. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS WATER COVERED BRIDGES...DIPS...
OR LOW WATER CROSSINGS. NEVER TRY TO CROSS A FLOWING STREAM... EVEN A
SMALL ONE...ON FOOT OR IN A VEHICLE.
&&
LAT...LON 4226 8782 4196 8762 4185 8761 4212 8859
4215 8859 4216 8873 4249 8882 4250 8813
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR URBAN AREAS AND SMALL STREAMS IN...
EASTERN BOONE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
LAKE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
MCHENRY COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
NORTHEASTERN DUPAGE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
NORTHERN COOK COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
NORTHERN KANE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
* UNTIL 430 PM CDT
* AT 1030 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE
WARNED AREA. 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN A SWATH ACROSS
MCHENRY...SOUTHERN LAKE AND NORTHERN COOK COUNTIES EARLY THIS
MORNING. RADAR INDICATES ANOTHER AREA OF HEAVY RAIN MOVING INTO
MCHENRY COUNTY LATE THIS MORNING. RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
PER HOUR WERE INDICATED.
* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
ALGONQUIN...ARLINGTON HEIGHTS...BARRINGTON...BUFFALO GROVE...
CARPENTERSVILLE...CHICAGO...DEERFIELD...DES PLAINES...EAST
DUNDEE...ELGIN...EVANSTON...FOX LAKE...FRANKLIN PARK...GAGES LAKE
AND GLENCOE.
MANY ROADS WERE FLOODED AS WELL AS CREEKS...SMALL STREAMS AND
DRAINAGE AREAS.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES
AS WELL AS OTHER DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.
FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR IS IMMINENT. MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS OCCUR
IN VEHICLES. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS WATER COVERED BRIDGES...DIPS...
OR LOW WATER CROSSINGS. NEVER TRY TO CROSS A FLOWING STREAM... EVEN A
SMALL ONE...ON FOOT OR IN A VEHICLE.
&&
LAT...LON 4226 8782 4196 8762 4185 8761 4212 8859
4215 8859 4216 8873 4249 8882 4250 8813
Flash Flood Statement 09:13:29.3287691
...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN COOK...LAKE...
EASTERN BOONE AND MCHENRY COUNTIES UNTIL 1130 AM CDT...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL MOVED ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. RADAR ESTIMATES
AND SPOTTERS REPORT 4 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN A SWATH FROM
HARVARD TO WOODSTOCK TO CRYSTAL LAKE TO BARRINGTON TO GLENVIEW.
RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE FLASH
FLOODING TO OCCUR.
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING AND WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. MANY ROADS ARE CLOSED IN THE NORTH SUBURBS
DUE TO FLOODING.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THIS STORM WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ON SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...FLOODING OF ROADS...URBAN AREAS...
HIGHWAYS...UNDERPASSES AND LOW LYING AREAS.
DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.
&&
LAT...LON 4238 8783 4223 8781 4210 8771 4195 8763
4204 8824 4215 8824 4215 8874 4250 8883
EASTERN BOONE AND MCHENRY COUNTIES UNTIL 1130 AM CDT...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL MOVED ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. RADAR ESTIMATES
AND SPOTTERS REPORT 4 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN A SWATH FROM
HARVARD TO WOODSTOCK TO CRYSTAL LAKE TO BARRINGTON TO GLENVIEW.
RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE FLASH
FLOODING TO OCCUR.
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING AND WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. MANY ROADS ARE CLOSED IN THE NORTH SUBURBS
DUE TO FLOODING.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THIS STORM WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ON SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...FLOODING OF ROADS...URBAN AREAS...
HIGHWAYS...UNDERPASSES AND LOW LYING AREAS.
DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.
&&
LAT...LON 4238 8783 4223 8781 4210 8771 4195 8763
4204 8824 4215 8824 4215 8874 4250 8883
Flood Warning 08:38:13.3078207
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A
* FLOOD WARNING FOR
THE FOX RIVER AT ALGONQUIN TAILWATER.
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT 730 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.6 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.5 FEET.
* RECENT ACTIVITY...FLOOD FORECASTS FOR ALGONQUIN WERE MOVED TO THIS
LOCATION ON JULY 5 2011. GAGE ZERO DATUM IS DIFFERENT FROM THE OLD
GAGE LOCATION. FLOOD AND ACTION STAGES HAVE CHANGED.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL REMAIN NEAR 10.5 FEET. THIS FORECAST
IS BASED ON PRELIMINARY RAINFALL REPORTS AND WILL BE UPDATED LATER
THIS MORNING AS ADDITIONAL DATA IS AVAILABLE.
* FLOOD WARNING FOR
THE FOX RIVER AT ALGONQUIN TAILWATER.
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT 730 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.6 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.5 FEET.
* RECENT ACTIVITY...FLOOD FORECASTS FOR ALGONQUIN WERE MOVED TO THIS
LOCATION ON JULY 5 2011. GAGE ZERO DATUM IS DIFFERENT FROM THE OLD
GAGE LOCATION. FLOOD AND ACTION STAGES HAVE CHANGED.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL REMAIN NEAR 10.5 FEET. THIS FORECAST
IS BASED ON PRELIMINARY RAINFALL REPORTS AND WILL BE UPDATED LATER
THIS MORNING AS ADDITIONAL DATA IS AVAILABLE.
Flash Flood Statement 07:57:50.2838330
...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN COOK...LAKE...
EASTERN BOONE AND MCHENRY COUNTIES UNTIL 1130 AM CDT...
AT 748 AM CDT...WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WARNED AREA.
RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
ALGONQUIN...ARLINGTON HEIGHTS...BARRINGTON...BUFFALO GROVE...
DEERFIELD...DES PLAINES...EVANSTON...FOX LAKE...GAGES LAKE...
GLENCOE...GLENVIEW...GRAYSLAKE...GURNEE...HARVARD AND HIGHLAND PARK.
TRAINED SPOTTERS HAVE REPORTED 6 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN
ALGONQUIN...5.3 INCHES IN MCHENRY...3.7 INCHES IN ARLINGTON HEIGHTS.
NUMEROUS ROAD CLOSURES HAVE BEEN REPORTED...INCLUDING...THE EDENS
EXPRESSWAY FROM PRATT TO MONTROSE...U.S. ROUTE 22 AT KELSER
AVE...WHEELING ROAD BETWEEN HINTZ ROAD AND DUNDEE ROAD...WOLF ROAD
AT GOLF ROAD...AND DEMPSTER ROAD BETWEEN WAUKEGAN ROAD AND HARLEM
ROAD.
OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED...
COLLEGE OF LAKE COUNTY...GREAT LAKES NAVAL TRAINING CENTER...HARPER
COLLEGE...LAKE COUNTY IL FAIRGROUNDS...LAKE FOREST COLLEGE...LOYOLA
UNIVERSITY...MCHENRY COUNTY COLLEGE...MCHENRY COUNTY FAIRGROUNDS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO ONE INCH ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE WARNED AREA.
EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THIS STORM WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS
AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS...VIADUCTS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...
RURAL ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS...STREAMS AND
OTHER LOW LYING AREAS ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO FLOODING.
&&
LAT...LON 4238 8783 4223 8781 4210 8771 4195 8763
4204 8824 4215 8824 4215 8874 4250 8883
EASTERN BOONE AND MCHENRY COUNTIES UNTIL 1130 AM CDT...
AT 748 AM CDT...WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WARNED AREA.
RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
ALGONQUIN...ARLINGTON HEIGHTS...BARRINGTON...BUFFALO GROVE...
DEERFIELD...DES PLAINES...EVANSTON...FOX LAKE...GAGES LAKE...
GLENCOE...GLENVIEW...GRAYSLAKE...GURNEE...HARVARD AND HIGHLAND PARK.
TRAINED SPOTTERS HAVE REPORTED 6 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN
ALGONQUIN...5.3 INCHES IN MCHENRY...3.7 INCHES IN ARLINGTON HEIGHTS.
NUMEROUS ROAD CLOSURES HAVE BEEN REPORTED...INCLUDING...THE EDENS
EXPRESSWAY FROM PRATT TO MONTROSE...U.S. ROUTE 22 AT KELSER
AVE...WHEELING ROAD BETWEEN HINTZ ROAD AND DUNDEE ROAD...WOLF ROAD
AT GOLF ROAD...AND DEMPSTER ROAD BETWEEN WAUKEGAN ROAD AND HARLEM
ROAD.
OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED...
COLLEGE OF LAKE COUNTY...GREAT LAKES NAVAL TRAINING CENTER...HARPER
COLLEGE...LAKE COUNTY IL FAIRGROUNDS...LAKE FOREST COLLEGE...LOYOLA
UNIVERSITY...MCHENRY COUNTY COLLEGE...MCHENRY COUNTY FAIRGROUNDS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO ONE INCH ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE WARNED AREA.
EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THIS STORM WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS
AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS...VIADUCTS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...
RURAL ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS...STREAMS AND
OTHER LOW LYING AREAS ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO FLOODING.
&&
LAT...LON 4238 8783 4223 8781 4210 8771 4195 8763
4204 8824 4215 8824 4215 8874 4250 8883
Radar Scan Zone Alert
The alert occurred at 07:05 AM on Jun 26 2013.
The site being monitored is LOT in Chicago, IL.
The site is operating in VCP mode 212.
McHenry County Wx triggered the alert because precipitation exceeded 50 dBZ (VIP level 10).
The maximum detected precipitation level is 55 dBZ (VIP level 11).
McHenry County Wx precipitation sensitivity is set to 50.
The current radar product is Short Range Composite Reflectivity (NCR).
The text description for the maximum detected precipitation level is: "2" to 4"/hr very heavy rain: pea to marble sized hail possible".
Flash Flood Watch 07:03:31.2515689
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR
* NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA.
* THROUGH THIS EVENING.
* THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA...AND NEW STORMS THAT MAY
DEVELOP LATER TODAY...WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR WITH POTENTIAL TRAINING
OVER THE SAME AREA. THIS...ON TOP OF ALREADY SATURATED GROUND
FROM RECENT STORMS COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING.
* RAPID FLOODING OF CREEKS...SMALL STREAMS...ROADS...VIADUCTS...
AND LOW LYING AREAS IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.
YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.
&&
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR
* NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA.
* THROUGH THIS EVENING.
* THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA...AND NEW STORMS THAT MAY
DEVELOP LATER TODAY...WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR WITH POTENTIAL TRAINING
OVER THE SAME AREA. THIS...ON TOP OF ALREADY SATURATED GROUND
FROM RECENT STORMS COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING.
* RAPID FLOODING OF CREEKS...SMALL STREAMS...ROADS...VIADUCTS...
AND LOW LYING AREAS IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.
YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.
&&
Flood Statement 06:23:13.2276307
...THE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR
NORTHWESTERN COOK...SOUTHERN LAKE AND SOUTHEASTERN MCHENRY COUNTIES
IS CANCELLED AND HAS BEEN REPLACED BY A FLASH FLOOD WARNING...
A FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS REPLACED THIS ADVISORY. IF FLOODING HAS
BEEN OBSERVED...PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY.
LAT...LON 4231 8783 4222 8780 4214 8774 4209 8769
4205 8789 4210 8818 4212 8824 4215 8824
4215 8836 4219 8848 4236 8837
NORTHWESTERN COOK...SOUTHERN LAKE AND SOUTHEASTERN MCHENRY COUNTIES
IS CANCELLED AND HAS BEEN REPLACED BY A FLASH FLOOD WARNING...
A FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS REPLACED THIS ADVISORY. IF FLOODING HAS
BEEN OBSERVED...PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY.
LAT...LON 4231 8783 4222 8780 4214 8774 4209 8769
4205 8789 4210 8818 4212 8824 4215 8824
4215 8836 4219 8848 4236 8837
Flood Statement 06:21:24.2265515
...THE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR
NORTHERN BOONE AND NORTHWESTERN MCHENRY COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
A FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS REPLACED THIS ADVISORY. IF FLOODING HAS
BEEN OBSERVED...PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY.
LAT...LON 4229 8835 4229 8860 4231 8882 4238 8893
4250 8894 4250 8862
NORTHERN BOONE AND NORTHWESTERN MCHENRY COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
A FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS REPLACED THIS ADVISORY. IF FLOODING HAS
BEEN OBSERVED...PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY.
LAT...LON 4229 8835 4229 8860 4231 8882 4238 8893
4250 8894 4250 8862
Radar Scan Zone Alert
The alert occurred at 06:05 AM on Jun 26 2013.
The site being monitored is LOT in Chicago, IL.
The site is operating in VCP mode 212.
McHenry County Wx triggered the alert because precipitation exceeded 50 dBZ (VIP level 10).
The maximum detected precipitation level is 60 dBZ (VIP level 12).
McHenry County Wx precipitation sensitivity is set to 50.
The current radar product is Short Range Composite Reflectivity (NCR).
The text description for the maximum detected precipitation level is: "4" to 8"/hr very heavy rain: marble size hail possible".
Radar Scan Zone Alert
The alert occurred at 05:31 AM on Jun 26 2013.
The site being monitored is LOT in Chicago, IL.
The site is operating in VCP mode 212.
McHenry County Wx triggered the alert because precipitation exceeded 50 dBZ (VIP level 10).
The maximum detected precipitation level is 60 dBZ (VIP level 12).
McHenry County Wx precipitation sensitivity is set to 50.
The current radar product is Short Range Composite Reflectivity (NCR).
The text description for the maximum detected precipitation level is: "4" to 8"/hr very heavy rain: marble size hail possible".
Flash Flood Warning 05:26:35.1939904
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR URBAN AREAS AND SMALL STREAMS IN...
EASTERN BOONE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
LAKE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
MCHENRY COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
NORTHERN COOK COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
* UNTIL 1130 AM CDT
* AT 524 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE
WARNED AREA. RADAR ESTIMATES OF IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES OF RAIN HAS
FALLEN OVER THE AREA AND ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL.
* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
ALGONQUIN...ARLINGTON HEIGHTS...BARRINGTON...BUFFALO GROVE...
DEERFIELD...DES PLAINES...EVANSTON...FOX LAKE...GAGES LAKE...
GLENCOE...GLENVIEW...GRAYSLAKE...GURNEE...HARVARD AND HIGHLAND
PARK.
OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED...
COLLEGE OF LAKE COUNTY...GREAT LAKES NAVAL TRAINING CENTER...HARPER
COLLEGE...LAKE COUNTY IL FAIRGROUNDS...LAKE FOREST COLLEGE...MCHENRY
COUNTY COLLEGE...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS...VIADUCTS...AND UNDERPASSES.
ADDITIONALLY...COUNTRY ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF
CREEKS...STREAMS AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO FLOODING.
&&
LAT...LON 4238 8783 4223 8781 4210 8771 4195 8763
4204 8824 4215 8824 4215 8874 4250 8883
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR URBAN AREAS AND SMALL STREAMS IN...
EASTERN BOONE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
LAKE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
MCHENRY COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
NORTHERN COOK COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
* UNTIL 1130 AM CDT
* AT 524 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE
WARNED AREA. RADAR ESTIMATES OF IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES OF RAIN HAS
FALLEN OVER THE AREA AND ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL.
* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
ALGONQUIN...ARLINGTON HEIGHTS...BARRINGTON...BUFFALO GROVE...
DEERFIELD...DES PLAINES...EVANSTON...FOX LAKE...GAGES LAKE...
GLENCOE...GLENVIEW...GRAYSLAKE...GURNEE...HARVARD AND HIGHLAND
PARK.
OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED...
COLLEGE OF LAKE COUNTY...GREAT LAKES NAVAL TRAINING CENTER...HARPER
COLLEGE...LAKE COUNTY IL FAIRGROUNDS...LAKE FOREST COLLEGE...MCHENRY
COUNTY COLLEGE...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS...VIADUCTS...AND UNDERPASSES.
ADDITIONALLY...COUNTRY ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF
CREEKS...STREAMS AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO FLOODING.
&&
LAT...LON 4238 8783 4223 8781 4210 8771 4195 8763
4204 8824 4215 8824 4215 8874 4250 8883
Flood Statement 04:33:49.1626470
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED AN
* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
NORTHWESTERN COOK COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
SOUTHEASTERN MCHENRY COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
* UNTIL 1030 AM CDT
* AT 432 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. DOPPLER
RADAR ESTIMATED 1.5 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAS FALLEN WITH
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER THE AREA.
* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING TO
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY ALONG SMALL STREAMS AND NEAR LOW WATER
CROSSINGS. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING
INCLUDE...ALGONQUIN...ARLINGTON HEIGHTS...BARRINGTON...BUFFALO
GROVE...DEERFIELD...GLENCOE...GLENVIEW...HIGHLAND PARK...ISLAND
LAKE...LAKE FOREST...LAKE ZURICH...LIBERTYVILLE...LINCOLNSHIRE...
LONG GROVE AND MCHENRY.
OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED...
GREAT LAKES NAVAL TRAINING CENTER...HARPER COLLEGE...LAKE COUNTY IL
FAIRGROUNDS...LAKE FOREST COLLEGE...MCHENRY COUNTY COLLEGE...MORRAIN
HILLS STATE PARK...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THIS STORM WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ON SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...URBAN AREAS...
HIGHWAYS... VIADUCTS...UNDERPASSES AND LOW LYING AREAS.
&&
LAT...LON 4231 8783 4222 8780 4214 8774 4209 8769
4205 8789 4210 8818 4212 8824 4215 8824
4215 8836 4219 8848 4236 8837
* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
NORTHWESTERN COOK COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
SOUTHEASTERN MCHENRY COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
* UNTIL 1030 AM CDT
* AT 432 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. DOPPLER
RADAR ESTIMATED 1.5 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAS FALLEN WITH
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER THE AREA.
* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING TO
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY ALONG SMALL STREAMS AND NEAR LOW WATER
CROSSINGS. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING
INCLUDE...ALGONQUIN...ARLINGTON HEIGHTS...BARRINGTON...BUFFALO
GROVE...DEERFIELD...GLENCOE...GLENVIEW...HIGHLAND PARK...ISLAND
LAKE...LAKE FOREST...LAKE ZURICH...LIBERTYVILLE...LINCOLNSHIRE...
LONG GROVE AND MCHENRY.
OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED...
GREAT LAKES NAVAL TRAINING CENTER...HARPER COLLEGE...LAKE COUNTY IL
FAIRGROUNDS...LAKE FOREST COLLEGE...MCHENRY COUNTY COLLEGE...MORRAIN
HILLS STATE PARK...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THIS STORM WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ON SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...URBAN AREAS...
HIGHWAYS... VIADUCTS...UNDERPASSES AND LOW LYING AREAS.
&&
LAT...LON 4231 8783 4222 8780 4214 8774 4209 8769
4205 8789 4210 8818 4212 8824 4215 8824
4215 8836 4219 8848 4236 8837
Radar Scan Zone Alert
The alert occurred at 04:31 AM on Jun 26 2013.
The site being monitored is LOT in Chicago, IL.
The site is operating in VCP mode 212.
McHenry County Wx triggered the alert because precipitation exceeded 50 dBZ (VIP level 10).
The maximum detected precipitation level is 60 dBZ (VIP level 12).
McHenry County Wx precipitation sensitivity is set to 50.
The current radar product is Short Range Composite Reflectivity (NCR).
The text description for the maximum detected precipitation level is: "4" to 8"/hr very heavy rain: marble size hail possible".
Flood Statement 03:52:49.1382930
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED AN
* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
NORTHERN BOONE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
NORTHWESTERN MCHENRY COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
* UNTIL 1000 AM CDT
* AT 352 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. DOPPLER
RADAR ESTIMATED 1.5 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN BOONE AND MCHENRY COUNTIES WITH ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN
MOVING INTO THE AREA.
* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING TO
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY ALONG SMALL STREAMS AND NEAR LOW WATER
CROSSINGS. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING
INCLUDE...HARVARD...WOODSTOCK...CAPRON AND POPLAR GROVE.
OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED...
MCHENRY COUNTY FAIRGROUNDS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THIS STORM WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...
COUNTRY ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS AND
OTHER LOW LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO MINOR FLOODING.
&&
LAT...LON 4229 8835 4229 8860 4231 8882 4238 8893
4250 8894 4250 8862
* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
NORTHERN BOONE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
NORTHWESTERN MCHENRY COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
* UNTIL 1000 AM CDT
* AT 352 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. DOPPLER
RADAR ESTIMATED 1.5 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN BOONE AND MCHENRY COUNTIES WITH ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN
MOVING INTO THE AREA.
* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING TO
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY ALONG SMALL STREAMS AND NEAR LOW WATER
CROSSINGS. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING
INCLUDE...HARVARD...WOODSTOCK...CAPRON AND POPLAR GROVE.
OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED...
MCHENRY COUNTY FAIRGROUNDS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THIS STORM WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...
COUNTRY ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS AND
OTHER LOW LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO MINOR FLOODING.
&&
LAT...LON 4229 8835 4229 8860 4231 8882 4238 8893
4250 8894 4250 8862
Mesoscale Discussion 03:34:26.1273733
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IA/NRN AND CENTRAL IL
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 368...
VALID 260832Z - 261000Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 368
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...A RECENT INCREASE IN THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS APPEARS
TO HAVE DEVELOPED OVER EAST CENTRAL IA...WITH THIS THREAT EXPECTED
TO PROGRESS SSEWD AND SEWD THROUGH EAST CENTRAL-SERN IA AND INTO
NWRN IL EARLY THIS MORNING.
IF A FORWARD PROPAGATING LINE/BOWING STRUCTURE IS SUSTAINED THROUGH
10Z...THEN A NEW SVR TSTM WATCH COULD BE WARRANTED TO THE NORTH OF
WW 371.
DISCUSSION...SINCE 07Z...A SSEWD SURGE OCCURRED WITHIN THE CLUSTER
OF TSTMS LOCATED OVER NERN-EAST CENTRAL IA...FROM BLACK
HAWK/BUCHANAN COUNTIES INTO ERN BENTON/LINN COUNTIES WITH STRONG
WIND GUSTS/TREES DOWN NEAR KCID AT 0745Z. FORCING FOR ASCENT
ATTENDANT TO A MIDLEVEL IMPULSE AND THE EXIT REGION OF AN
ACCOMPANYING WNWLY 40-50 KT MIDLEVEL JET...AND LOW LEVEL WAA INTO
ERN IA ARE SUPPORTING THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS. THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT
AND WEAKER LOW LEVEL WAA APPEARS TO BE RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL
DOWNSTREAM STORMS OVER FAR NRN IL INTO SRN WI...WITH THIS ACTIVITY
LOCATED NEAR AND N OF A WARM FRONT WHICH EXTENDED FROM SERN MN
THROUGH FAR SWRN WI TO NRN IL...AND THEN EWD INTO FAR NRN IND.
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND BULK SHEAR UP TO 35 KT FROM SERN IA INTO
CENTRAL IL COMBINED WITH FURTHER COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT WITH THE
DEVELOPING BOW STRUCTURE IN EAST CENTRAL IA SUGGEST AT LEAST A SHORT
TERM DAMAGING WIND THREAT EXISTS. BY 10Z...IF THE BOWING STRUCTURE
MAINTAINS ITS EXISTENCE...THEN THE BOW SHOULD EXTEND FROM HENDERSON
TO KNOX TO BUREAU COUNTIES IN NWRN IL. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR
THE POTENTIAL NEED OF A DOWNSTREAM SVR TSTM WATCH.
MEANWHILE...GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO THE CENTER OF THE MIDLEVEL
IMPULSE OVER IA...BULK SHEAR IS GENERALLY AOB 30 KT INTO NRN IL
SUGGESTING THE STORMS NEAR THE WARM FRONT WILL BE LESS
ORGANIZED...POSING A LOWER RISK FOR SVR STORMS.
..PETERS/HART.. 06/26/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX...DMX...
LAT...LON 42409248 42869224 42979103 42838933 42578879 42148803
41798804 41078820 40798843 40898941 40289017 40259049
40219123 40249169 40459224 40759210 41289222 41889238
42409248
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 368...
VALID 260832Z - 261000Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 368
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...A RECENT INCREASE IN THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS APPEARS
TO HAVE DEVELOPED OVER EAST CENTRAL IA...WITH THIS THREAT EXPECTED
TO PROGRESS SSEWD AND SEWD THROUGH EAST CENTRAL-SERN IA AND INTO
NWRN IL EARLY THIS MORNING.
IF A FORWARD PROPAGATING LINE/BOWING STRUCTURE IS SUSTAINED THROUGH
10Z...THEN A NEW SVR TSTM WATCH COULD BE WARRANTED TO THE NORTH OF
WW 371.
DISCUSSION...SINCE 07Z...A SSEWD SURGE OCCURRED WITHIN THE CLUSTER
OF TSTMS LOCATED OVER NERN-EAST CENTRAL IA...FROM BLACK
HAWK/BUCHANAN COUNTIES INTO ERN BENTON/LINN COUNTIES WITH STRONG
WIND GUSTS/TREES DOWN NEAR KCID AT 0745Z. FORCING FOR ASCENT
ATTENDANT TO A MIDLEVEL IMPULSE AND THE EXIT REGION OF AN
ACCOMPANYING WNWLY 40-50 KT MIDLEVEL JET...AND LOW LEVEL WAA INTO
ERN IA ARE SUPPORTING THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS. THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT
AND WEAKER LOW LEVEL WAA APPEARS TO BE RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL
DOWNSTREAM STORMS OVER FAR NRN IL INTO SRN WI...WITH THIS ACTIVITY
LOCATED NEAR AND N OF A WARM FRONT WHICH EXTENDED FROM SERN MN
THROUGH FAR SWRN WI TO NRN IL...AND THEN EWD INTO FAR NRN IND.
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND BULK SHEAR UP TO 35 KT FROM SERN IA INTO
CENTRAL IL COMBINED WITH FURTHER COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT WITH THE
DEVELOPING BOW STRUCTURE IN EAST CENTRAL IA SUGGEST AT LEAST A SHORT
TERM DAMAGING WIND THREAT EXISTS. BY 10Z...IF THE BOWING STRUCTURE
MAINTAINS ITS EXISTENCE...THEN THE BOW SHOULD EXTEND FROM HENDERSON
TO KNOX TO BUREAU COUNTIES IN NWRN IL. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR
THE POTENTIAL NEED OF A DOWNSTREAM SVR TSTM WATCH.
MEANWHILE...GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO THE CENTER OF THE MIDLEVEL
IMPULSE OVER IA...BULK SHEAR IS GENERALLY AOB 30 KT INTO NRN IL
SUGGESTING THE STORMS NEAR THE WARM FRONT WILL BE LESS
ORGANIZED...POSING A LOWER RISK FOR SVR STORMS.
..PETERS/HART.. 06/26/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX...DMX...
LAT...LON 42409248 42869224 42979103 42838933 42578879 42148803
41798804 41078820 40798843 40898941 40289017 40259049
40219123 40249169 40459224 40759210 41289222 41889238
42409248
Radar Scan Zone Alert
The alert occurred at 03:31 AM on Jun 26 2013.
The site being monitored is LOT in Chicago, IL.
The site is operating in VCP mode 212.
McHenry County Wx triggered the alert because precipitation exceeded 50 dBZ (VIP level 10).
The maximum detected precipitation level is 60 dBZ (VIP level 12).
McHenry County Wx precipitation sensitivity is set to 50.
The current radar product is Short Range Composite Reflectivity (NCR).
The text description for the maximum detected precipitation level is: "4" to 8"/hr very heavy rain: marble size hail possible".
Special Weather Statement 02:53:37.1031283
...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...
AT 250 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MARENGO...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 20 MPH.
NICKEL SIZE HAIL...WINDS GREATER THAN 40 MPH...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.
CITIES AND TOWNS AFFECTED...
MARENGO...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO BLOW
AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES. HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO STANDING WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR
VISIBILITY. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS
PASSED.
&&
LAT...LON 4243 8860 4217 8847 4215 8885 4220 8889
TIME...MOT...LOC 0753Z 245DEG 19KT 4220 8876
AT 250 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MARENGO...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 20 MPH.
NICKEL SIZE HAIL...WINDS GREATER THAN 40 MPH...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.
CITIES AND TOWNS AFFECTED...
MARENGO...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO BLOW
AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES. HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO STANDING WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR
VISIBILITY. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS
PASSED.
&&
LAT...LON 4243 8860 4217 8847 4215 8885 4220 8889
TIME...MOT...LOC 0753Z 245DEG 19KT 4220 8876
Radar Scan Zone Alert
The alert occurred at 02:31 AM on Jun 26 2013.
The site being monitored is LOT in Chicago, IL.
The site is operating in VCP mode 212.
McHenry County Wx triggered the alert because precipitation exceeded 50 dBZ (VIP level 10).
The maximum detected precipitation level is 60 dBZ (VIP level 12).
McHenry County Wx precipitation sensitivity is set to 50.
The current radar product is Short Range Composite Reflectivity (NCR).
The text description for the maximum detected precipitation level is: "4" to 8"/hr very heavy rain: marble size hail possible".
Flash Flood Watch 00:47:15.280664.3
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR
* PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS AND INDIANA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING
AREAS...IN ILLINOIS...BOONE...COOK...DE KALB...DUPAGE...FORD...
GRUNDY...IROQUOIS...KANE...KANKAKEE...KENDALL...LA SALLE...
LAKE IL...LEE...LIVINGSTON...MCHENRY...OGLE...WILL AND
WINNEBAGO. IN INDIANA...BENTON...JASPER...LAKE IN...NEWTON AND
PORTER.
* OVERNIGHT THROUGH THIS EVENING.
* THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF IOWA AND NORTHERN
ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT...AND WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE
PRE DAWN HOURS AS THEY SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL RATES
OF 1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR AND POTENTIAL TRAINING OVER THE SAME
AREA. THIS...ON TOP OF ALREADY SATURATED GROUND FROM RECENT
STORMS COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING.
* RAPID FLOODING OF CREEKS...SMALL STREAMS...ROADS...VIADUCTS...
AND LOW LYING AREAS IS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.
YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.
&&
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR
* PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS AND INDIANA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING
AREAS...IN ILLINOIS...BOONE...COOK...DE KALB...DUPAGE...FORD...
GRUNDY...IROQUOIS...KANE...KANKAKEE...KENDALL...LA SALLE...
LAKE IL...LEE...LIVINGSTON...MCHENRY...OGLE...WILL AND
WINNEBAGO. IN INDIANA...BENTON...JASPER...LAKE IN...NEWTON AND
PORTER.
* OVERNIGHT THROUGH THIS EVENING.
* THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF IOWA AND NORTHERN
ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT...AND WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE
PRE DAWN HOURS AS THEY SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL RATES
OF 1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR AND POTENTIAL TRAINING OVER THE SAME
AREA. THIS...ON TOP OF ALREADY SATURATED GROUND FROM RECENT
STORMS COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING.
* RAPID FLOODING OF CREEKS...SMALL STREAMS...ROADS...VIADUCTS...
AND LOW LYING AREAS IS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.
YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.
&&
Tuesday, June 25, 2013
Mesoscale Discussion 21:21:21.7611219
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL IL...MUCH OF IN
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 363...
VALID 260220Z - 260345Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 363
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...LARGE HAIL THREAT MAY BE DEVELOPING OVER IL AS STORMS
REGENERATE ABOVE SURFACE COLD POOL...AND THEN TRAIN EWD /WHERE A
HEAVY RAIN THREAT IS POSSIBLE...REFER TO WPC GUIDANCE/. NEW WW MAY
BE NEEDED OVER PORTIONS OF IL AND IND.
OVER SRN IN...STRONG/SEVERE GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF A MULTICELL LINE SEGMENT. OVER NRN IN...LINE OF STORMS WILL
CONTINUE PROPAGATING SWD DURING THE NIGHT...AND MAY ALSO POSE
MARGINAL DAMAGING WIND THREAT.
DISCUSSION...AT 0210Z...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDED NWWD FROM SRN
IN INTO CNTRL/WRN IL. A SMALL LINE SEGMENT LOCATED AT THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE COLD POOL IN SRN IN IS MOVING INTO A WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER AIRMASS WHICH IS AIDING IN MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY.
THIS MAY SUPPORT A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS DURING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FARTHER W OVER WRN/CNTRL IL...50 KT LOW-LEVEL
JET CENTERED OVER THE GREAT PLAINS IS VEERING INTO THE REMNANT
SURFACE COLD POOL...AND IS AIDING IN REGENERATION OF STORMS. HIGH
THETA-E AIRMASS BEING LIFTED OVER THE COLD POOL IS CONTRIBUTING TO
MUCAPE VALUES AOA 2000 J/KG...AND WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR NEAR 30
KT...WILL SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION AND A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL.
THIS AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A NEW WW.
..GARNER.. 06/26/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...
LAT...LON 39498953 40159120 41019062 41068874 41318755 41738646
41538474 39738521 38878763 39498953
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 363...
VALID 260220Z - 260345Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 363
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...LARGE HAIL THREAT MAY BE DEVELOPING OVER IL AS STORMS
REGENERATE ABOVE SURFACE COLD POOL...AND THEN TRAIN EWD /WHERE A
HEAVY RAIN THREAT IS POSSIBLE...REFER TO WPC GUIDANCE/. NEW WW MAY
BE NEEDED OVER PORTIONS OF IL AND IND.
OVER SRN IN...STRONG/SEVERE GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF A MULTICELL LINE SEGMENT. OVER NRN IN...LINE OF STORMS WILL
CONTINUE PROPAGATING SWD DURING THE NIGHT...AND MAY ALSO POSE
MARGINAL DAMAGING WIND THREAT.
DISCUSSION...AT 0210Z...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDED NWWD FROM SRN
IN INTO CNTRL/WRN IL. A SMALL LINE SEGMENT LOCATED AT THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE COLD POOL IN SRN IN IS MOVING INTO A WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER AIRMASS WHICH IS AIDING IN MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY.
THIS MAY SUPPORT A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS DURING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FARTHER W OVER WRN/CNTRL IL...50 KT LOW-LEVEL
JET CENTERED OVER THE GREAT PLAINS IS VEERING INTO THE REMNANT
SURFACE COLD POOL...AND IS AIDING IN REGENERATION OF STORMS. HIGH
THETA-E AIRMASS BEING LIFTED OVER THE COLD POOL IS CONTRIBUTING TO
MUCAPE VALUES AOA 2000 J/KG...AND WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR NEAR 30
KT...WILL SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION AND A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL.
THIS AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A NEW WW.
..GARNER.. 06/26/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...
LAT...LON 39498953 40159120 41019062 41068874 41318755 41738646
41538474 39738521 38878763 39498953
Mesoscale Discussion 17:50:49.6360650
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL IL...NRN/CNTRL IN
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 363...
VALID 252249Z - 252345Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 363
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND SMALL LINES CONTINUE TO MOVE E AT
30 KT OVER E-CNTRL IL. THIS ACTIVITY WILL ENTER WRN PORTIONS OF IN
DURING THE NEXT HOUR. FARTHER W OVER CNTRL IL...DEEPENING CUMULUS IS
OBSERVED...AND MAY BE A LOCATION FOR NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE
SHORT-TERM. OTHER STORMS ARE FORMING OVER SRN LOWER MI...AND MAY
PROPAGATE SWD INTO NRN IN. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS WW
363.
DISCUSSION...SWLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A
WARM...MOIST...AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER MUCH OF IN AND SRN/CNTRL
IL...WITH ESTIMATES OF MLCAPE NEAR 3000 J/KG. THIS WILL AID IN
MAINTAINING MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND LINES CURRENTLY MOVING E OVER
E-CNTRL IL. WITH TIME...ACTIVITY MAY BEGIN TO PROPAGATE SWD INTO THE
FETCH OF GREATER BUOYANCY. THUS...PORTIONS OF WW 363 MAY NEED TO BE
SPATIALLY EXPANDED TO THE S BY LOCAL OFFICES. BEHIND THE LINE OVER
W-CNTRL/CNTRL IL...UNSTABLE AIRMASS RIDING UP OVER TRAILING COLD
POOL MAY SUPPORT NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
THUS...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR ALL OF WW 363.
..GARNER.. 06/25/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN...
LAT...LON 41169040 41098916 41638916 41678704 41768681 41768482
39778483 39759044 41169040
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 363...
VALID 252249Z - 252345Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 363
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND SMALL LINES CONTINUE TO MOVE E AT
30 KT OVER E-CNTRL IL. THIS ACTIVITY WILL ENTER WRN PORTIONS OF IN
DURING THE NEXT HOUR. FARTHER W OVER CNTRL IL...DEEPENING CUMULUS IS
OBSERVED...AND MAY BE A LOCATION FOR NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE
SHORT-TERM. OTHER STORMS ARE FORMING OVER SRN LOWER MI...AND MAY
PROPAGATE SWD INTO NRN IN. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS WW
363.
DISCUSSION...SWLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A
WARM...MOIST...AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER MUCH OF IN AND SRN/CNTRL
IL...WITH ESTIMATES OF MLCAPE NEAR 3000 J/KG. THIS WILL AID IN
MAINTAINING MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND LINES CURRENTLY MOVING E OVER
E-CNTRL IL. WITH TIME...ACTIVITY MAY BEGIN TO PROPAGATE SWD INTO THE
FETCH OF GREATER BUOYANCY. THUS...PORTIONS OF WW 363 MAY NEED TO BE
SPATIALLY EXPANDED TO THE S BY LOCAL OFFICES. BEHIND THE LINE OVER
W-CNTRL/CNTRL IL...UNSTABLE AIRMASS RIDING UP OVER TRAILING COLD
POOL MAY SUPPORT NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
THUS...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR ALL OF WW 363.
..GARNER.. 06/25/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN...
LAT...LON 41169040 41098916 41638916 41678704 41768681 41768482
39778483 39759044 41169040
Mesoscale Discussion 15:18:34.5456285
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN MN...NRN IA...NRN IL...SRN WI
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 252015Z - 252245Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SVR POTENTIAL
THIS AFTERNOON. THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...THE LATEST 7-KM CAPPI DATA INDICATE AN UPTICK IN
CONVECTION ALONG AN AGGREGATE SYNOPTIC FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LYING
FROM S-CNTRL MN ESEWD TO NEAR CHICAGO. LOW-LEVEL ASCENT ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY IS AUGMENTING BACKGROUND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACCOMPANYING A
MODEST...20-25-KT LOW-LEVEL JET MAX. IN THE NEAR TERM...THE
MODEST...SHALLOW NATURE OF THE ASCENT BREEDS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE SUSTENANCE OF STRONG/DEEP CONVECTION INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. HOWEVER...GIVEN STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ATOP HIGH THETA-E
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG ARE COMMON
ACROSS THE AREA AMIDST SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORM
STRUCTURES. A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR SVR HAIL WILL EXIST ACROSS THE
REGION WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND SVR WINDS MAY ALSO BE OF CONCERN
NEAR/S OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE EFFECTIVE INFLOW LAYERS ARE BASED
CLOSER TO THE SFC. THIS COULD REQUIRE WW ISSUANCE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS OR SO IF CONVECTIVE TRENDS SUGGEST A GREATER
LIKELIHOOD OF SUSTAINED...SVR CONVECTION.
..COHEN/KERR.. 06/25/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...
LAT...LON 43579484 44039481 44249396 44039179 42988847 42138773
41748859 41869058 42249233 42989412 43579484
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 252015Z - 252245Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SVR POTENTIAL
THIS AFTERNOON. THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...THE LATEST 7-KM CAPPI DATA INDICATE AN UPTICK IN
CONVECTION ALONG AN AGGREGATE SYNOPTIC FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LYING
FROM S-CNTRL MN ESEWD TO NEAR CHICAGO. LOW-LEVEL ASCENT ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY IS AUGMENTING BACKGROUND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACCOMPANYING A
MODEST...20-25-KT LOW-LEVEL JET MAX. IN THE NEAR TERM...THE
MODEST...SHALLOW NATURE OF THE ASCENT BREEDS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE SUSTENANCE OF STRONG/DEEP CONVECTION INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. HOWEVER...GIVEN STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ATOP HIGH THETA-E
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG ARE COMMON
ACROSS THE AREA AMIDST SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORM
STRUCTURES. A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR SVR HAIL WILL EXIST ACROSS THE
REGION WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND SVR WINDS MAY ALSO BE OF CONCERN
NEAR/S OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE EFFECTIVE INFLOW LAYERS ARE BASED
CLOSER TO THE SFC. THIS COULD REQUIRE WW ISSUANCE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS OR SO IF CONVECTIVE TRENDS SUGGEST A GREATER
LIKELIHOOD OF SUSTAINED...SVR CONVECTION.
..COHEN/KERR.. 06/25/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...
LAT...LON 43579484 44039481 44249396 44039179 42988847 42138773
41748859 41869058 42249233 42989412 43579484
Flash Flood Watch 15:15:45.5439555
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING...
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR
* PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS AND INDIANA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING
AREAS...IN ILLINOIS...BOONE...COOK...DE KALB...DUPAGE...FORD...
GRUNDY...IROQUOIS...KANE...KANKAKEE...KENDALL...LA SALLE...
LAKE IL...LEE...LIVINGSTON...MCHENRY...OGLE...WILL AND
WINNEBAGO. IN INDIANA...BENTON...JASPER...LAKE IN...NEWTON AND
PORTER.
* THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
* THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND GROW IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY INTO TONIGHT. THESE
WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR
AND POTENTIAL TRAINING OVER THE SAME AREA. THIS ON TOP OF
ALREADY SATURATED GROUND FROM RECENT STORMS COULD PRODUCE FLASH
FLOODING.
* RAPID FLOODING OF CREEKS...SMALL STREAMS...ROADS...VIADUCTS...
AND LOW LYING AREAS IS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.
YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.
&&
EVENING...
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR
* PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS AND INDIANA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING
AREAS...IN ILLINOIS...BOONE...COOK...DE KALB...DUPAGE...FORD...
GRUNDY...IROQUOIS...KANE...KANKAKEE...KENDALL...LA SALLE...
LAKE IL...LEE...LIVINGSTON...MCHENRY...OGLE...WILL AND
WINNEBAGO. IN INDIANA...BENTON...JASPER...LAKE IN...NEWTON AND
PORTER.
* THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
* THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND GROW IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY INTO TONIGHT. THESE
WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR
AND POTENTIAL TRAINING OVER THE SAME AREA. THIS ON TOP OF
ALREADY SATURATED GROUND FROM RECENT STORMS COULD PRODUCE FLASH
FLOODING.
* RAPID FLOODING OF CREEKS...SMALL STREAMS...ROADS...VIADUCTS...
AND LOW LYING AREAS IS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.
YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.
&&
Flash Flood Watch 12:09:36.4333823
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS EXPANDED THE
* FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS AND
INDIANA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...IN
ILLINOIS...COOK... DUPAGE...FORD...GRUNDY...IROQUOIS...KANE...
KANKAKEE...KENDALL...LA SALLE...LAKE IL...LIVINGSTON...MCHENRY
AND WILL. IN INDIANA...BENTON...JASPER...LAKE IN...NEWTON AND
PORTER.
* THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
* THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND GROW
IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY INTO TONIGHT. THESE WILL BE CAPABLE OF
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR AND POTENTIAL TRAINING
OVER THE SAME AREA. THIS ON TOP OF ALREADY SATURATED GROUND FROM
RECENT STORMS COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING.
* RAPID FLOODING OF CREEKS...SMALL STREAMS...ROADS...VIADUCTS...
AND LOW LYING AREAS IS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.
YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.
&&
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS EXPANDED THE
* FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS AND
INDIANA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...IN
ILLINOIS...COOK... DUPAGE...FORD...GRUNDY...IROQUOIS...KANE...
KANKAKEE...KENDALL...LA SALLE...LAKE IL...LIVINGSTON...MCHENRY
AND WILL. IN INDIANA...BENTON...JASPER...LAKE IN...NEWTON AND
PORTER.
* THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
* THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND GROW
IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY INTO TONIGHT. THESE WILL BE CAPABLE OF
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR AND POTENTIAL TRAINING
OVER THE SAME AREA. THIS ON TOP OF ALREADY SATURATED GROUND FROM
RECENT STORMS COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING.
* RAPID FLOODING OF CREEKS...SMALL STREAMS...ROADS...VIADUCTS...
AND LOW LYING AREAS IS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.
YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.
&&
Flash Flood Statement 08:32:37.3044942
...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR BOONE...WINNEBAGO
AND NORTHWESTERN MCHENRY COUNTIES HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 830
AM CDT...
THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH AN AREAL FLOOD
ADVISORY UNTIL 1130 AM CDT FOR NORTHERN BOONE AND NORTHERN MCHENRY
COUNTIES.
LAT...LON 4249 8842 4234 8852 4222 8883 4220 8940
4250 8940
AND NORTHWESTERN MCHENRY COUNTIES HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 830
AM CDT...
THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH AN AREAL FLOOD
ADVISORY UNTIL 1130 AM CDT FOR NORTHERN BOONE AND NORTHERN MCHENRY
COUNTIES.
LAT...LON 4249 8842 4234 8852 4222 8883 4220 8940
4250 8940
Radar Scan Zone Alert
The alert occurred at 08:15 AM on Jun 25 2013.
The site being monitored is LOT in Chicago, IL.
The site is operating in VCP mode 12.
McHenry County Wx triggered the alert because precipitation exceeded 50 dBZ (VIP level 10).
The maximum detected precipitation level is 60 dBZ (VIP level 12).
McHenry County Wx precipitation sensitivity is set to 50.
The current radar product is Short Range Composite Reflectivity (NCR).
The text description for the maximum detected precipitation level is: "4" to 8"/hr very heavy rain: marble size hail possible".
Mesoscale Discussion 07:53:47.2814272
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IL INTO NWRN IND AND SWRN LOWER MI
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 251252Z - 251345Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A SVR TSTM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR PART OF NRN IL INTO
NWRN IND /INCLUDING THE CHICAGO METRO AREA/...AND POSSIBLY SWRN
LOWER MI. A LINE OF TSTMS WILL MOVE E/ESEWD THIS MORNING...POSING A
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS --- ESPECIALLY WITH EWD EXTENT AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES.
DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF TSTMS THAT WAS LOCATED IN CENTRAL TO NERN
IA HAVE GROWN UPSCALE INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS ACROSS THE
UPPER MS VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. AT 1220Z...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWED A LINE OF STORMS WITH THIS MCS EXTENDING FROM EXTREME SOUTH
CENTRAL WI /GREEN COUNTY/ TO ALONG THE NWRN IL/IA BORDER /CARROLL
COUNTY IL TO CLINTON COUNTY IA/. ADDITIONAL STORMS WERE DEVELOPING
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...JUST TO THE EAST OF KMLI. THIS LINE OF
STORMS WAS MOVING ESEWD CLOSE TO 45 KT...AND THUS FAR HAS REMAINED
LOCATED NORTH OF AN E-W ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM AN EARLIER
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. DESPITE THE CURRENT LOCATION OF THE CONVECTIVE
LINE...WHICH HAS SHOWN SOME TENDENCY TO BOW...VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATED POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE HEATING OVER NRN IL AND
TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY RISING PER TRENDS IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT FOR STRONGER
INSTABILITY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WIND GUSTS TO REACH THE
SURFACE...GIVEN DEWPOINTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE E-W BOUNDARY OF
AROUND 70 DEGREES. THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM FAR NWRN OH WWD
THROUGH NRN IND /15 N KFWA TO 30 SW KVPZ/ INTO NRN IL /15 ENE KMMO
TO 25 NE KMLI/.
THE DESTABILIZATION COMBINED WITH A 40-50 KT WLY MIDLEVEL JET
EXTENDING FROM ERN IA TO SRN LOWER MI SUGGESTS STORMS COULD PERSIST
EWD...AT LEAST TO SRN LAKE MICHIGAN AND POSSIBLY INTO FAR NWRN IND
AND SWRN LOWER MI. HOWEVER...A WEAKENING TREND OF A WLY LLJ COULD
PROVE A LIMITING FACTOR IN THE EWD SPEED OF THIS LINE OF STORMS.
THUS...WW ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING IF A BOWING STRUCTURE
BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED.
..PETERS/HART.. 06/25/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...LOT...DVN...
LAT...LON 41779014 42108982 42478964 42438796 42378723 42198542
41578551 41108591 41298766 41508897 41779014
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 251252Z - 251345Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A SVR TSTM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR PART OF NRN IL INTO
NWRN IND /INCLUDING THE CHICAGO METRO AREA/...AND POSSIBLY SWRN
LOWER MI. A LINE OF TSTMS WILL MOVE E/ESEWD THIS MORNING...POSING A
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS --- ESPECIALLY WITH EWD EXTENT AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES.
DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF TSTMS THAT WAS LOCATED IN CENTRAL TO NERN
IA HAVE GROWN UPSCALE INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS ACROSS THE
UPPER MS VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. AT 1220Z...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWED A LINE OF STORMS WITH THIS MCS EXTENDING FROM EXTREME SOUTH
CENTRAL WI /GREEN COUNTY/ TO ALONG THE NWRN IL/IA BORDER /CARROLL
COUNTY IL TO CLINTON COUNTY IA/. ADDITIONAL STORMS WERE DEVELOPING
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...JUST TO THE EAST OF KMLI. THIS LINE OF
STORMS WAS MOVING ESEWD CLOSE TO 45 KT...AND THUS FAR HAS REMAINED
LOCATED NORTH OF AN E-W ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM AN EARLIER
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. DESPITE THE CURRENT LOCATION OF THE CONVECTIVE
LINE...WHICH HAS SHOWN SOME TENDENCY TO BOW...VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATED POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE HEATING OVER NRN IL AND
TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY RISING PER TRENDS IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT FOR STRONGER
INSTABILITY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WIND GUSTS TO REACH THE
SURFACE...GIVEN DEWPOINTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE E-W BOUNDARY OF
AROUND 70 DEGREES. THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM FAR NWRN OH WWD
THROUGH NRN IND /15 N KFWA TO 30 SW KVPZ/ INTO NRN IL /15 ENE KMMO
TO 25 NE KMLI/.
THE DESTABILIZATION COMBINED WITH A 40-50 KT WLY MIDLEVEL JET
EXTENDING FROM ERN IA TO SRN LOWER MI SUGGESTS STORMS COULD PERSIST
EWD...AT LEAST TO SRN LAKE MICHIGAN AND POSSIBLY INTO FAR NWRN IND
AND SWRN LOWER MI. HOWEVER...A WEAKENING TREND OF A WLY LLJ COULD
PROVE A LIMITING FACTOR IN THE EWD SPEED OF THIS LINE OF STORMS.
THUS...WW ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING IF A BOWING STRUCTURE
BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED.
..PETERS/HART.. 06/25/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...LOT...DVN...
LAT...LON 41779014 42108982 42478964 42438796 42378723 42198542
41578551 41108591 41298766 41508897 41779014
Flash Flood Statement 07:31:21.2681018
...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BOONE...WINNEBAGO AND
NORTHWESTERN MCHENRY COUNTIES UNTIL 830 AM CDT...
AT 729 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCED VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
WARNED AREA. RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT TWO TO THREE INCHES FELL
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WINNEBAGO...BOONE...AND MCHENRY COUNTIES
OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POISED TO DROP AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OR SO IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
BELVIDERE...HARVARD...LOVES PARK...MACHESNEY PARK...ROCKFORD...
ROCKTON...SOUTH BELOIT...CAPRON...CHERRY VALLEY...DURAND...
PECATONICA...POPLAR GROVE...ROSCOE AND WINNEBAGO.
SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...BELVIDERE...
HARVARD...LOVES PARK...MACHESNEY PARK...ROCKFORD...ROCKTON...SOUTH
BELOIT...CAPRON...CHERRY VALLEY...DURAND...PECATONICA...POPLAR
GROVE...ROSCOE AND WINNEBAGO.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THIS STORM WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ON SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...URBAN AREAS...
HIGHWAYS... UNDERPASSES AND LOW LYING AREAS.
BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED...ACT QUICKLY. DO NOT
ENTER THE WATER. TURN AROUND AND MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND. DO NOT
STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.
&&
LAT...LON 4249 8842 4234 8852 4222 8883 4220 8940
4250 8940
NORTHWESTERN MCHENRY COUNTIES UNTIL 830 AM CDT...
AT 729 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCED VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
WARNED AREA. RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT TWO TO THREE INCHES FELL
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WINNEBAGO...BOONE...AND MCHENRY COUNTIES
OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POISED TO DROP AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OR SO IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
BELVIDERE...HARVARD...LOVES PARK...MACHESNEY PARK...ROCKFORD...
ROCKTON...SOUTH BELOIT...CAPRON...CHERRY VALLEY...DURAND...
PECATONICA...POPLAR GROVE...ROSCOE AND WINNEBAGO.
SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...BELVIDERE...
HARVARD...LOVES PARK...MACHESNEY PARK...ROCKFORD...ROCKTON...SOUTH
BELOIT...CAPRON...CHERRY VALLEY...DURAND...PECATONICA...POPLAR
GROVE...ROSCOE AND WINNEBAGO.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THIS STORM WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ON SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...URBAN AREAS...
HIGHWAYS... UNDERPASSES AND LOW LYING AREAS.
BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED...ACT QUICKLY. DO NOT
ENTER THE WATER. TURN AROUND AND MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND. DO NOT
STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.
&&
LAT...LON 4249 8842 4234 8852 4222 8883 4220 8940
4250 8940
Radar Scan Zone Alert
The alert occurred at 05:04 AM on Jun 25 2013.
The site being monitored is LOT in Chicago, IL.
The site is operating in VCP mode 12.
McHenry County Wx triggered the alert because precipitation exceeded 50 dBZ (VIP level 10).
The maximum detected precipitation level is 55 dBZ (VIP level 11).
McHenry County Wx precipitation sensitivity is set to 50.
The current radar product is Short Range Composite Reflectivity (NCR).
The text description for the maximum detected precipitation level is: "2" to 4"/hr very heavy rain: pea to marble sized hail possible".
Flash Flood Statement 05:03:19.1801701
...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BOONE...WINNEBAGO AND
NORTHWESTERN MCHENRY COUNTIES UNTIL 830 AM CDT...
AT 501 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCED VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WARNED AREA.
RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATE TWO TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL FELL ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WINNEBAGO...BOONE...AND MCHENRY COUNTIES WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF UP
TO ANOTHER INCH OF RAIN THIS MORNING.
RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
BELVIDERE...HARVARD...LOVES PARK...MACHESNEY PARK...ROCKFORD...
ROCKTON...SOUTH BELOIT...CAPRON...CHERRY VALLEY...DURAND...
PECATONICA...POPLAR GROVE...ROSCOE AND WINNEBAGO.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THIS STORM WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ON SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...URBAN AREAS...
HIGHWAYS... UNDERPASSES AND LOW LYING AREAS.
BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED...ACT QUICKLY. DO NOT
ENTER THE WATER. TURN AROUND AND MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND. DO NOT
STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.
&&
LAT...LON 4249 8842 4234 8852 4222 8883 4220 8940
4250 8940
NORTHWESTERN MCHENRY COUNTIES UNTIL 830 AM CDT...
AT 501 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCED VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WARNED AREA.
RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATE TWO TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL FELL ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WINNEBAGO...BOONE...AND MCHENRY COUNTIES WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF UP
TO ANOTHER INCH OF RAIN THIS MORNING.
RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
BELVIDERE...HARVARD...LOVES PARK...MACHESNEY PARK...ROCKFORD...
ROCKTON...SOUTH BELOIT...CAPRON...CHERRY VALLEY...DURAND...
PECATONICA...POPLAR GROVE...ROSCOE AND WINNEBAGO.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THIS STORM WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ON SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...URBAN AREAS...
HIGHWAYS... UNDERPASSES AND LOW LYING AREAS.
BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED...ACT QUICKLY. DO NOT
ENTER THE WATER. TURN AROUND AND MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND. DO NOT
STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.
&&
LAT...LON 4249 8842 4234 8852 4222 8883 4220 8940
4250 8940
Flash Flood Statement 03:56:50.1406790
...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BOONE...WINNEBAGO AND
NORTHWESTERN MCHENRY COUNTIES UNTIL 830 AM CDT...
AT 353 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THAT THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCED VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WARNED
AREA. RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT THREE TO FOUR INCHES OF RAIN
FELL ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALVES OF WINNEBAGO AND BOONE COUNTIES...AS
WELL AS ISOLATED SPOTS IN NORTHWESTERN MCHENRY COUNTY. WHILE THE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL HAS ENDED...ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE
WARNED AREAS.
RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
BELVIDERE...HARVARD...LOVES PARK...MACHESNEY PARK...ROCKFORD...
ROCKTON...SOUTH BELOIT...CAPRON...CHERRY VALLEY...DURAND...
PECATONICA...POPLAR GROVE...ROSCOE AND WINNEBAGO.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THIS STORM WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ON SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...URBAN AREAS...
HIGHWAYS... UNDERPASSES AND LOW LYING AREAS.
BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED...ACT QUICKLY. DO NOT
ENTER THE WATER. TURN AROUND AND MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND. DO NOT
STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.
&&
LAT...LON 4249 8842 4234 8852 4222 8883 4220 8940
4250 8940
NORTHWESTERN MCHENRY COUNTIES UNTIL 830 AM CDT...
AT 353 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THAT THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCED VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WARNED
AREA. RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT THREE TO FOUR INCHES OF RAIN
FELL ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALVES OF WINNEBAGO AND BOONE COUNTIES...AS
WELL AS ISOLATED SPOTS IN NORTHWESTERN MCHENRY COUNTY. WHILE THE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL HAS ENDED...ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE
WARNED AREAS.
RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
BELVIDERE...HARVARD...LOVES PARK...MACHESNEY PARK...ROCKFORD...
ROCKTON...SOUTH BELOIT...CAPRON...CHERRY VALLEY...DURAND...
PECATONICA...POPLAR GROVE...ROSCOE AND WINNEBAGO.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THIS STORM WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ON SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...URBAN AREAS...
HIGHWAYS... UNDERPASSES AND LOW LYING AREAS.
BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED...ACT QUICKLY. DO NOT
ENTER THE WATER. TURN AROUND AND MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND. DO NOT
STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.
&&
LAT...LON 4249 8842 4234 8852 4222 8883 4220 8940
4250 8940
Radar Scan Zone Alert
The alert occurred at 02:55 AM on Jun 25 2013.
The site being monitored is LOT in Chicago, IL.
The site is operating in VCP mode 12.
McHenry County Wx triggered the alert because precipitation exceeded 50 dBZ (VIP level 10).
The maximum detected precipitation level is 60 dBZ (VIP level 12).
McHenry County Wx precipitation sensitivity is set to 50.
The current radar product is Short Range Composite Reflectivity (NCR).
The text description for the maximum detected precipitation level is: "4" to 8"/hr very heavy rain: marble size hail possible".
Mesoscale Discussion 02:38:50.943469.4
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN WI/PARTS OF FAR NRN AND NERN IL TO FAR
NWRN IND AND SWRN LOWER MI
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 250738Z - 250915Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A BOWING
LINE OF STORMS MOVING INTO FAR SERN WI...WITH A SIMILAR THREAT INTO
PARTS OF FAR NRN AND NERN IL THROUGH 09-10Z. CONFIDENCE IS GREATER
FOR A FEW SVR WIND GUSTS IN FAR SERN WI...BUT OVERALL SPATIAL THREAT
IS TOO SMALL TO WARRANT A SVR TSTM WATCH. THE SWRN EXTENSION OF THE
LINE INTO NRN IL IS MOVING A LITTLE SLOWER WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
HAVING A SVR WIND GUST INTO NERN IL.
DISCUSSION...AT 0720Z...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A BOWING LINE OF
STORMS MOVING THROUGH SERN WI AND RECENTLY MOVED INTO FAR NERN IL.
THE SERN WI PORTION OF THIS LINE HAS SHOWN A TENDENCY TO BOW AND WAS
MOVING EWD AT 40-45 KT...WHILE THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE LINE IN
NRN IL WAS TRACKING ESEWD AT 30-35 KT. A 45 KT SWLY LLJ EXTENDED
INTO NRN IL AND SHOULD VEER TO WLY OVERNIGHT. WAA WITHIN THE NOSE OF
THIS JET WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY ALONG THE
TRAILING LINE OF STORMS WHERE THE ENVIRONMENT IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE
/MUCAPE 1000-1500 J PER KG/. IF THE FORWARD SPEED SHOWS SIGNS OF
INCREASING...THEN A WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF NERN IL INTO NWRN
IND.
FARTHER NE OVER SWRN LOWER MI...THE ENVIRONMENT IS MORE STABLE AND
FORECAST TO REMAIN STABLE THROUGH 12Z. THUS...THE SERN WI PORTION
OF THIS LINE OF STORMS SHOULD NOT POSE A SVR WEATHER THREAT ONCE IT
CROSSES SRN LAKE MICHIGAN...THOUGH TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.
..PETERS/HART.. 06/25/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...LOT...MKX...
LAT...LON 42158945 42258894 42488847 42848805 43038796 42968731
42788612 42278561 41688571 41388641 41378687 41488766
41678848 41998929 42158945
NWRN IND AND SWRN LOWER MI
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 250738Z - 250915Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A BOWING
LINE OF STORMS MOVING INTO FAR SERN WI...WITH A SIMILAR THREAT INTO
PARTS OF FAR NRN AND NERN IL THROUGH 09-10Z. CONFIDENCE IS GREATER
FOR A FEW SVR WIND GUSTS IN FAR SERN WI...BUT OVERALL SPATIAL THREAT
IS TOO SMALL TO WARRANT A SVR TSTM WATCH. THE SWRN EXTENSION OF THE
LINE INTO NRN IL IS MOVING A LITTLE SLOWER WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
HAVING A SVR WIND GUST INTO NERN IL.
DISCUSSION...AT 0720Z...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A BOWING LINE OF
STORMS MOVING THROUGH SERN WI AND RECENTLY MOVED INTO FAR NERN IL.
THE SERN WI PORTION OF THIS LINE HAS SHOWN A TENDENCY TO BOW AND WAS
MOVING EWD AT 40-45 KT...WHILE THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE LINE IN
NRN IL WAS TRACKING ESEWD AT 30-35 KT. A 45 KT SWLY LLJ EXTENDED
INTO NRN IL AND SHOULD VEER TO WLY OVERNIGHT. WAA WITHIN THE NOSE OF
THIS JET WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY ALONG THE
TRAILING LINE OF STORMS WHERE THE ENVIRONMENT IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE
/MUCAPE 1000-1500 J PER KG/. IF THE FORWARD SPEED SHOWS SIGNS OF
INCREASING...THEN A WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF NERN IL INTO NWRN
IND.
FARTHER NE OVER SWRN LOWER MI...THE ENVIRONMENT IS MORE STABLE AND
FORECAST TO REMAIN STABLE THROUGH 12Z. THUS...THE SERN WI PORTION
OF THIS LINE OF STORMS SHOULD NOT POSE A SVR WEATHER THREAT ONCE IT
CROSSES SRN LAKE MICHIGAN...THOUGH TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.
..PETERS/HART.. 06/25/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...LOT...MKX...
LAT...LON 42158945 42258894 42488847 42848805 43038796 42968731
42788612 42278561 41688571 41388641 41378687 41488766
41678848 41998929 42158945
Flash Flood Warning 02:32:43.907136.4
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR URBAN AREAS AND SMALL STREAMS IN...
BOONE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
NORTHWESTERN MCHENRY COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
WINNEBAGO COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
* UNTIL 830 AM CDT
* AT 230 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WARNED AREA.
RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT UPWARDS OF THREE INCHES OF RAIN HAS
FALLEN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA WITH RAINFALL RATES OF 1.5 INCHES TO
3 INCHES PER HOUR. AND ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN IS
POSSIBLE.
* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
BELVIDERE...HARVARD...LOVES PARK...MACHESNEY PARK...ROCKFORD...
ROCKTON...SOUTH BELOIT...CAPRON...CHERRY VALLEY...DURAND...LAKE
SUMMERSET...PECATONICA...POPLAR GROVE...ROSCOE AND WINNEBAGO.
OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED...
BOONE COUNTY FAIRGROUNDS...ROCK CUT STATE PARK...ROCK VALLEY
COLLEGE...ROCKFORD SPEEDWAY...WINNEBAGO COUNTY FAIRGROUNDS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. DO
NOT ENTER THE WATER. TURN AROUND AND MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO
ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN
WATER BEGINS RISING.
&&
LAT...LON 4249 8842 4234 8852 4222 8883 4220 8940
4250 8940
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR URBAN AREAS AND SMALL STREAMS IN...
BOONE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
NORTHWESTERN MCHENRY COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
WINNEBAGO COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
* UNTIL 830 AM CDT
* AT 230 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WARNED AREA.
RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT UPWARDS OF THREE INCHES OF RAIN HAS
FALLEN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA WITH RAINFALL RATES OF 1.5 INCHES TO
3 INCHES PER HOUR. AND ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN IS
POSSIBLE.
* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
BELVIDERE...HARVARD...LOVES PARK...MACHESNEY PARK...ROCKFORD...
ROCKTON...SOUTH BELOIT...CAPRON...CHERRY VALLEY...DURAND...LAKE
SUMMERSET...PECATONICA...POPLAR GROVE...ROSCOE AND WINNEBAGO.
OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED...
BOONE COUNTY FAIRGROUNDS...ROCK CUT STATE PARK...ROCK VALLEY
COLLEGE...ROCKFORD SPEEDWAY...WINNEBAGO COUNTY FAIRGROUNDS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. DO
NOT ENTER THE WATER. TURN AROUND AND MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO
ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN
WATER BEGINS RISING.
&&
LAT...LON 4249 8842 4234 8852 4222 8883 4220 8940
4250 8940
Special Weather Statement 02:24:47.860012.7
...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...
AT 221 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM RICHMOND TO HARVARD
TO WINNEBAGO...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.
WINDS TO 50 MPH...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. IN ADDITION...AROUND AN
HOUR OF HEAVY RAIN CAN LEAD TO FLOODING.
CITIES AND TOWNS AFFECTED...
RICHMOND... ROCKFORD... HEBRON...
WINNEBAGO... POPLAR GROVE... LOVES PARK...
HARVARD... CAPRON... MACHESNEY PARK...
OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED...
BOONE COUNTY FAIRGROUNDS...CHAIN O LAKES STATE PARK...COLLEGE OF LAKE
COUNTY...GREAT LAKES NAVAL TRAINING CENTER...HARPER COLLEGE...IL
BEACH STATE PARK...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL BRANCHES TO BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOOSE
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS
TREES. HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO STANDING WATER ON ROADWAYS AND
POOR VISIBILITY. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THESE
STORMS HAVE PASSED.
&&
LAT...LON 4250 8780 4227 8782 4202 8766 4200 8811
4219 8948 4220 8948 4221 8940 4250 8940
TIME...MOT...LOC 0723Z 285DEG 45KT 4249 8826 4234 8853
4222 8916
AT 221 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM RICHMOND TO HARVARD
TO WINNEBAGO...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.
WINDS TO 50 MPH...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. IN ADDITION...AROUND AN
HOUR OF HEAVY RAIN CAN LEAD TO FLOODING.
CITIES AND TOWNS AFFECTED...
RICHMOND... ROCKFORD... HEBRON...
WINNEBAGO... POPLAR GROVE... LOVES PARK...
HARVARD... CAPRON... MACHESNEY PARK...
OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED...
BOONE COUNTY FAIRGROUNDS...CHAIN O LAKES STATE PARK...COLLEGE OF LAKE
COUNTY...GREAT LAKES NAVAL TRAINING CENTER...HARPER COLLEGE...IL
BEACH STATE PARK...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL BRANCHES TO BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOOSE
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS
TREES. HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO STANDING WATER ON ROADWAYS AND
POOR VISIBILITY. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THESE
STORMS HAVE PASSED.
&&
LAT...LON 4250 8780 4227 8782 4202 8766 4200 8811
4219 8948 4220 8948 4221 8940 4250 8940
TIME...MOT...LOC 0723Z 285DEG 45KT 4249 8826 4234 8853
4222 8916
Special Weather Statement 01:41:03.600236.1
...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...
AT 135 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 14 MILES NORTH OF
SOUTH BELOIT TO 21 MILES WEST OF PECATONICA...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.
WINDS GREATER THAN 50 MPH...PEA SIZE HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.
CITIES AND TOWNS AFFECTED...
LAKE SUMMERSET... DURAND... SOUTH BELOIT...
ROCKTON... PECATONICA... WINNEBAGO...
ROSCOE... MACHESNEY PARK... ROCKFORD...
OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED...
BOONE COUNTY FAIRGROUNDS...ROCK CUT STATE PARK...ROCK VALLEY
COLLEGE...ROCKFORD SPEEDWAY...WINNEBAGO COUNTY FAIRGROUNDS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO BLOW
AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES. HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO STANDING WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR
VISIBILITY. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THESE STORMS
HAVE PASSED.
&&
LAT...LON 4249 8835 4223 8881 4223 8940 4249 8941
4251 8937
TIME...MOT...LOC 0639Z 265DEG 54KT 4269 8888 4228 8968
AT 135 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 14 MILES NORTH OF
SOUTH BELOIT TO 21 MILES WEST OF PECATONICA...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.
WINDS GREATER THAN 50 MPH...PEA SIZE HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.
CITIES AND TOWNS AFFECTED...
LAKE SUMMERSET... DURAND... SOUTH BELOIT...
ROCKTON... PECATONICA... WINNEBAGO...
ROSCOE... MACHESNEY PARK... ROCKFORD...
OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED...
BOONE COUNTY FAIRGROUNDS...ROCK CUT STATE PARK...ROCK VALLEY
COLLEGE...ROCKFORD SPEEDWAY...WINNEBAGO COUNTY FAIRGROUNDS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO BLOW
AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES. HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO STANDING WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR
VISIBILITY. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THESE STORMS
HAVE PASSED.
&&
LAT...LON 4249 8835 4223 8881 4223 8940 4249 8941
4251 8937
TIME...MOT...LOC 0639Z 265DEG 54KT 4269 8888 4228 8968
Monday, June 24, 2013
Mesoscale Discussion 20:12:43.7203537
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LOWER MI...NERN OH...NRN/CNTRL IN...E-CNTRL IL
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 358...
VALID 250111Z - 250215Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 358
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...BOWING MCS WITH A HISTORY OF PRODUCING LONG SWATHS OF
DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUES TO MOVE E ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AT 30-40
KT. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR WW 358 IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...WITH
A NEW WW ISSUANCE POSSIBLE OVER SERN LOWER MI INTO NRN PORTIONS OF
OH.
DISCUSSION...A FAST MOVING BOW ECHO WAS LOCATED FROM SWRN LOWER MI
INTO NRN/CNTRL IN AND FAR E-CNTRL IL AT 01Z. AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM /PER
ILN AND DTX 00Z RAOBS/ IS CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES IN THE
80S...AND DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S...WHICH SUPPORTS
MLCAPE VALUES FROM 1000-1500 J/KG. THOUGH THE BOW ECHO HAS SHOWN A
WEAKENING TREND DURING THE LAST HOUR...ELONGATION OF THE COLD POOL
DOWNSTREAM INTO THE MODERATE INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE
TO FAVOR UPDRAFT REGENERATION ALONG THE GUST FRONT AND MAINTAIN A
RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS. AREAS OF E OF WW 358 WILL BE MONITORED FOR
A NEW WW ISSUANCE.
..GARNER.. 06/25/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...
LAT...LON 39738874 40228834 41308633 42278618 43018549 42978357
41688270 40578306 39678606 39738874
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 358...
VALID 250111Z - 250215Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 358
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...BOWING MCS WITH A HISTORY OF PRODUCING LONG SWATHS OF
DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUES TO MOVE E ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AT 30-40
KT. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR WW 358 IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...WITH
A NEW WW ISSUANCE POSSIBLE OVER SERN LOWER MI INTO NRN PORTIONS OF
OH.
DISCUSSION...A FAST MOVING BOW ECHO WAS LOCATED FROM SWRN LOWER MI
INTO NRN/CNTRL IN AND FAR E-CNTRL IL AT 01Z. AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM /PER
ILN AND DTX 00Z RAOBS/ IS CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES IN THE
80S...AND DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S...WHICH SUPPORTS
MLCAPE VALUES FROM 1000-1500 J/KG. THOUGH THE BOW ECHO HAS SHOWN A
WEAKENING TREND DURING THE LAST HOUR...ELONGATION OF THE COLD POOL
DOWNSTREAM INTO THE MODERATE INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE
TO FAVOR UPDRAFT REGENERATION ALONG THE GUST FRONT AND MAINTAIN A
RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS. AREAS OF E OF WW 358 WILL BE MONITORED FOR
A NEW WW ISSUANCE.
..GARNER.. 06/25/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...
LAT...LON 39738874 40228834 41308633 42278618 43018549 42978357
41688270 40578306 39678606 39738874
Severe Weather Statement 18:20:58.6539742
...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN DUPAGE...NORTH CENTRAL
WILL AND EASTERN MCHENRY COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE
WARNED AREA.
LAT...LON 4240 8780 4235 8782 4223 8781 4214 8774
4208 8767 4190 8760 4184 8760 4175 8753
4147 8752 4147 8753 4148 8779 4156 8780
4183 8777 4207 8781 4225 8811 4235 8812
TIME...MOT...LOC 2319Z 251DEG 54KT 4247 8806 4238 8777
4221 8751 4193 8744 4166 8748
WILL AND EASTERN MCHENRY COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE
WARNED AREA.
LAT...LON 4240 8780 4235 8782 4223 8781 4214 8774
4208 8767 4190 8760 4184 8760 4175 8753
4147 8752 4147 8753 4148 8779 4156 8780
4183 8777 4207 8781 4225 8811 4235 8812
TIME...MOT...LOC 2319Z 251DEG 54KT 4247 8806 4238 8777
4221 8751 4193 8744 4166 8748
Severe Weather Statement 18:04:32.6442128
...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR COOK...LAKE...
EASTERN DUPAGE...CENTRAL WILL AND EASTERN MCHENRY COUNTIES UNTIL 645
PM CDT...
AT 600 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM WONDER LAKE TO WAUCONDA TO WHEELING TO RIVERSIDE TO
TINLEY PARK...AND MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH.
HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS.
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.
IMPACT...EXPECT CONSIDERABLE TREE DAMAGE. DAMAGE IS LIKELY TO MOBILE
HOMES...ROOFS AND OUTBUILDINGS.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
SPRING GROVE AND SAUK VILLAGE AROUND 610 PM CDT.
LAKE CATHERINE AND CHANNEL LAKE AROUND 615 PM CDT.
ANTIOCH AND WADSWORTH AROUND 620 PM CDT.
ZION AND WINTHROP HARBOR AROUND 625 PM CDT.
OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE SOUTH CHICAGO HEIGHTS...ROUND
LAKE HEIGHTS...ROUND LAKE BEACH...RIVERDALE...LAKE BLUFF...
HIGHWOOD...FOX LAKE HILLS...CALUMET PARK...EAST HAZEL CREST AND SOUTH
CHICAGO.
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF CHICAGO AND MOST OF THE METROPOLITAN
AREA.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THIS IS A DANGEROUS SITUATION. THESE STORMS HAVE BEEN PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE
AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
LAT...LON 4249 8780 4245 8779 4227 8782 4214 8774
4208 8767 4191 8762 4190 8760 4184 8760
4175 8753 4147 8752 4147 8753 4148 8809
4179 8809 4209 8820 4214 8824 4215 8824
4215 8826 4229 8840 4250 8823
TIME...MOT...LOC 2303Z 251DEG 54KT 4239 8837 4230 8808
4213 8782 4185 8775 4158 8779
TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...70MPH
EASTERN DUPAGE...CENTRAL WILL AND EASTERN MCHENRY COUNTIES UNTIL 645
PM CDT...
AT 600 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM WONDER LAKE TO WAUCONDA TO WHEELING TO RIVERSIDE TO
TINLEY PARK...AND MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH.
HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS.
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.
IMPACT...EXPECT CONSIDERABLE TREE DAMAGE. DAMAGE IS LIKELY TO MOBILE
HOMES...ROOFS AND OUTBUILDINGS.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
SPRING GROVE AND SAUK VILLAGE AROUND 610 PM CDT.
LAKE CATHERINE AND CHANNEL LAKE AROUND 615 PM CDT.
ANTIOCH AND WADSWORTH AROUND 620 PM CDT.
ZION AND WINTHROP HARBOR AROUND 625 PM CDT.
OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE SOUTH CHICAGO HEIGHTS...ROUND
LAKE HEIGHTS...ROUND LAKE BEACH...RIVERDALE...LAKE BLUFF...
HIGHWOOD...FOX LAKE HILLS...CALUMET PARK...EAST HAZEL CREST AND SOUTH
CHICAGO.
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF CHICAGO AND MOST OF THE METROPOLITAN
AREA.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THIS IS A DANGEROUS SITUATION. THESE STORMS HAVE BEEN PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE
AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
LAT...LON 4249 8780 4245 8779 4227 8782 4214 8774
4208 8767 4191 8762 4190 8760 4184 8760
4175 8753 4147 8752 4147 8753 4148 8809
4179 8809 4209 8820 4214 8824 4215 8824
4215 8826 4229 8840 4250 8823
TIME...MOT...LOC 2303Z 251DEG 54KT 4239 8837 4230 8808
4213 8782 4185 8775 4158 8779
TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...70MPH
Mesoscale Discussion 18:01:42.6425298
AREAS AFFECTED...NE IL...SRN LK MI...NRN IND...SWRN LWR MI
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 354...356...
VALID 242300Z - 250015Z
CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT GEOGRAPHICAL REFERENCE AND WATCH NUMBER.
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
354...356...CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...SVR MCS CONTINUES ACROSS NE IL WITH CONTINUED SVR
WINDS...SOME POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT...EXPECTED. SVR THREAT WITHIN THE
LINE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EWD ACROSS SRN LK MI AND INTO SWRN LWR
MI/NRN IND. AS A RESULT...A DOWNSTREAM WATCH WILL BE NEEDED SHORTLY.
DISCUSSION...SVR MCS CONTINUES EWD INTO NE IL /INCLUDING THE CHICAGO
METRO AREA/. ESTIMATED MOTION BASED ON RADAR IS 270/49 KT. STRONG TO
SVR WINDS HAVE BEEN MEASURED ALONG MUCH OF THE LINE DURING THE PAST
HOURS. BASED ON RADAR IMAGERY...THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LINE HAS
RECENTLY SURGED EWD...SUGGESTING THE SVR WINDS /SOME POSSIBLE
SIGNIFICANT/ SHOULD CONTINUE. THE REAR INFLOW JET WAS SAMPLED WELL
BY DVN VAD WITH A LARGE AREA OF FLOW GREATER THAN 50 KT BETWEEN 3
AND 6 KM. RADAR IMAGERY HAS ALSO SHOWN WEAKENING ECHOS IN THE WAKE
OF THE LINE...FURTHER CONFIRMING THE PRESENCE OF A WELL-DEVELOPED
REAR INFLOW JET.
AREA DOWNSTREAM OF THE CURRENT LINE ACROSS NRN IND/SRN LWR MI IS
CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S. CURRENT INDICATIONS FROM VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND MESOANALYSIS ARE THAT THE AREA IS WEAKLY CAPPED WITH ONLY MODEST
INSTABILITY /MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J PER KG/. HOWEVER...THE STRENGTH OF
THE MCS AND THE PRESENCE OF GOOD LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD FAVOR
CONTINUED PROPAGATION INTO THIS AREA. AS SUCH...A DOWNSTREAM WATCH
WILL BE NEEDED SOON.
..MOSIER/CORFIDI.. 06/24/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...
LAT...LON 42558893 42838709 42608501 40988514 40628763 40758962
42558893
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 354...356...
VALID 242300Z - 250015Z
CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT GEOGRAPHICAL REFERENCE AND WATCH NUMBER.
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
354...356...CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...SVR MCS CONTINUES ACROSS NE IL WITH CONTINUED SVR
WINDS...SOME POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT...EXPECTED. SVR THREAT WITHIN THE
LINE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EWD ACROSS SRN LK MI AND INTO SWRN LWR
MI/NRN IND. AS A RESULT...A DOWNSTREAM WATCH WILL BE NEEDED SHORTLY.
DISCUSSION...SVR MCS CONTINUES EWD INTO NE IL /INCLUDING THE CHICAGO
METRO AREA/. ESTIMATED MOTION BASED ON RADAR IS 270/49 KT. STRONG TO
SVR WINDS HAVE BEEN MEASURED ALONG MUCH OF THE LINE DURING THE PAST
HOURS. BASED ON RADAR IMAGERY...THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LINE HAS
RECENTLY SURGED EWD...SUGGESTING THE SVR WINDS /SOME POSSIBLE
SIGNIFICANT/ SHOULD CONTINUE. THE REAR INFLOW JET WAS SAMPLED WELL
BY DVN VAD WITH A LARGE AREA OF FLOW GREATER THAN 50 KT BETWEEN 3
AND 6 KM. RADAR IMAGERY HAS ALSO SHOWN WEAKENING ECHOS IN THE WAKE
OF THE LINE...FURTHER CONFIRMING THE PRESENCE OF A WELL-DEVELOPED
REAR INFLOW JET.
AREA DOWNSTREAM OF THE CURRENT LINE ACROSS NRN IND/SRN LWR MI IS
CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S. CURRENT INDICATIONS FROM VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND MESOANALYSIS ARE THAT THE AREA IS WEAKLY CAPPED WITH ONLY MODEST
INSTABILITY /MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J PER KG/. HOWEVER...THE STRENGTH OF
THE MCS AND THE PRESENCE OF GOOD LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD FAVOR
CONTINUED PROPAGATION INTO THIS AREA. AS SUCH...A DOWNSTREAM WATCH
WILL BE NEEDED SOON.
..MOSIER/CORFIDI.. 06/24/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...
LAT...LON 42558893 42838709 42608501 40988514 40628763 40758962
42558893
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