Sunday, May 19, 2013

Mesoscale Discussion 22:59:41.8195319

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL-SRN WI / ERN IA / NRN AND W-CNTRL IL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 185...187...

VALID 200358Z - 200500Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 185...187...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A LARGELY ISOLD DMGG WIND THREAT WILL CEASE CONCURRENT
WITH PASSAGE OF THE SQUALL LINE FROM WEST TO EAST.

DISCUSSION...AN EXTENSIVE NORTH TO SOUTH SQUALL LINE WITH SEVERAL
BOWING INFLECTIONS --LIKELY SIGNALING ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD
WIND DAMAGE-- WILL CONTINUE EWD OVER THE MID-UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALTHOUGH SOME BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION
HAS OCCURRED DUE TO NOCTURNAL COOLING...THE STEEP LAPSE RATE
ENVIRONMENT SAMPLED BY THE 00Z DVN RAOB WOULD AT LEAST SUPPORT THE
POSSIBILITY FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS. ANY LIMITED TORNADO THREAT WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BUT REMAIN NON-ZERO GIVEN THE STRONG LOW
LEVEL WIND PROFILE. COUNTIES CAN BE CLEARED FROM TORNADO WATCH 187
FROM WEST TO EAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH SQUALL LINE PASSAGE.

..SMITH.. 05/20/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX...MPX...

LAT...LON 40239156 42109186 44379137 45349026 43558850 41738838
40148980 40239156