AREAS AFFECTED...W-CNTRL IN / E-CNTRL AND SRN IL / FAR SERN MO / FAR
WRN KY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 210325Z - 210430Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL LIKELY PERSIST FARTHER E
OVER NRN-WRN IND SWD TO THE MS/OH RIVER CONFLUENCE REGION TONIGHT.
2 SEPARATE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE PROPOSED.
DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A WELL ORGANIZED QLCS FROM NRN IL
SWWD INTO SWRN AR. A RECENTLY MEASURED 60 KT WIND GUST FROM AN ASOS
AROUND 35 MIN AGO IN THE GREATER ST. LOUIS AREA INDICATES THIS QLCS
IS LIKELY PRODUCING WIND DAMAGE AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS THE MID MS
RIVER VALLEY. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND INSTABILITY ARE MORE THAN
ADEQUATE TO SUSTAIN THIS QLCS WELL INTO THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS DOWNSTREAM OVER FAR SERN MO AND SRN IL...EVENTUALLY
MOVING INTO W-CNTRL IN AND FAR WRN KY LATER TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH A
BRIEF WEAK TORNADO IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER
MESOVORTEX...CURRENT THINKING IS WIND DAMAGE WILL BE THE PRIMARY
SEVERE THREAT/CONCERN.
..SMITH/CORFIDI.. 05/21/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...MEG...LSX...
LAT...LON 38898900 40308852 40368851 41618741 41788632 41448585
39308673 37868769 36608875 36148995 36719106 38898900
