Thursday, May 30, 2013

Mesoscale Discussion 14:17:17.5092263

AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL/SE IA...WRN/CNTRL IL...ERN MO

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 252...

VALID 301916Z - 302015Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 252 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS ANOTHER LINE OF STORMS MOVES INTO ERN MO.
WIND PROFILES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR STORM ORGANIZATION AND A PRIMARY
THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. A FEW TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE AS WELL.

DISCUSSION...18Z DVN SOUNDING SAMPLED STRONG MID-LEVEL /BETWEEN 3-6
KFT/ FLOW IN AN UNCAPPED AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. THIS STRONG
MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD PERSIST OVER THE AREA AS UPSTREAM VAD PROFILES
FROM LSX INDICATE NEAR 50 KT AROUND 6KFT.

WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY NNEWD ACROSS THE
WATCH AREA. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. A MORE ORGANIZED LINE IS CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS CNTRL MO. CURRENT ESTIMATES PLACE THE MOTION OF THIS
LINE AT APPROXIMATELY 30 KT TO THE ENE. THIS LINE WILL LIKELY
STRENGTHEN AND POSSIBLY ACCELERATE AS IT ENTERS A WARMER AND MORE
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. AS SUCH...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES
ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF STRONG WIND
GUSTS. GIVEN THE MOIST LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...A FEW
TORNADOES...PRIMARILY EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGER LINES OF
CONVECTION...REMAIN POSSIBLE.

..MOSIER.. 05/30/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX...SGF...

LAT...LON 37249234 42549193 42548841 37238907 37249234