Thursday, May 30, 2013

Mesoscale Discussion 17:59:15.6410745

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND ERN WI

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 250...

VALID 302258Z - 310000Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 250 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...IN ADDITION TO LIKELY THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS SPREADING
NNEWD INTO SRN WI BETWEEN 23-00Z...A TORNADO THREAT WILL PERSIST
INTO THE EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN WI BEYOND THE 00Z EXPIRATION
TIME OF WW 250. THUS...A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL BE COORDINATED WITH
AFFECTED WFO/S SOON.

DISCUSSION...SOME CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING AND EVENTUAL DIURNAL
STABILIZATION THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING ACROSS
CENTRAL/ERN WI WILL TEND TO REDUCE THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY.
DESPITE THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAKER INSTABILITY...30-60 METER HEIGHT
FALLS/FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THE APPROACH OF NNEWD MOVING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL AID IN MAINTAINING A FAST
MOVING LINE OF STORMS INTO SRN WI EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THE
POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT FOR ADDITIONAL WARM SECTOR DISCRETE STORMS.
STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER WINDS/SHEAR WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH
WILL FAVOR A CONTINUED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND AN INCREASE IN
A SSWLY LLJ TO 50 KT WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE FOR
A CONTINUED TORNADO THREAT...DESPITE THE DECREASING TREND IN
INSTABILITY.

..PETERS/KERR.. 05/30/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...DLH...ARX...

LAT...LON 42609160 44669074 46308993 45978813 45598768 44968754
44308770 43728802 43088803 42508844 42458938 42519063
42609160