AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LOWER MI...NRN INDIANA...NW OH
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 290120Z - 290315Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...TRENDS WITH AN EVOLVING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ARE BEING
MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN INCREASING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
THAT COULD REQUIRE A WW WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
DISCUSSION...PROBABLY AIDED BY A DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD
ASSOCIATED WITH A MID/UPPER JET STREAK NOSING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF BROADER SCALE RIDGING...A
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS IN THE PROCESS OF EVOLVING SOUTHWEST OF
CHICAGO INTO SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CHICAGO METROPOLITAN AREA.
INTENSIFICATION IS NOT RAPID...BUT SOME STRENGTHENING IS NOTED IN
LIGHTNING TRENDS...AND WDSS 5/9 KM CAPPI DATA. ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY IS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP EAST OF AN ENVIRONMENT WITH STEEPER MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...INSTABILITY WITHIN A PLUME OF HIGHER PRECIPITABLE
WATER /1.5-1.75+ INCHES/ EXTENDING EASTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION MAY MAINTAIN CURRENT TRENDS AT LEAST ANOTHER FEW HOURS
THIS EVENING. IT APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT MOMENTUM ASSOCIATED WITH
30-40+ KT LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW... COUPLED WITH PRECIPITATION
LOADING...COULD CONTRIBUTING TO AN INCREASING RISK FOR SEVERE WIND
GUSTS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN INDIANA/SOUTHERN MICHIGAN AND
NORTHWEST OHIO BETWEEN NOW AND 03-05Z.
..KERR/THOMPSON.. 05/29/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...
LAT...LON 42048731 42708588 43058424 43058245 42088152 41228275
40658553 40478675 40658762 41308784 42048731
