Monday, June 27, 2011

Hazardous Weather Outlook

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

THUNDERSTORMS...THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE:

GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH.
BRIEF DOWNPOURS.
FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION:

DISSIPATION OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE
TO ALLOW FOR MODEST DESTABILIZATION THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
THIS...IN COMBINATION WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WILL BRING
A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

LOW LEVEL FORCING HAS BEEN DISRUPTED BY LAST NIGHTS
CONVECTION...AND PROFILER WINDS SUGGEST BETTER MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE WILL BE FOCUSED FROM NORTHEAST OF THE KANSAS CITY
AREA...INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST INDIANA. IN ADDITION...STRONGER
MID LEVEL DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO.

IN SUMMARY...THOUGH THE OUTLOOK AREA IS NOT OUT OF THE WOODS IN
TERMS OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...CONDITIONS APPEAR UNFAVORABLE
FOR ORGANIZED...SEVERE STORMS.

PORTIONS OF THE UPPER ILLINOIS RIVER WILL REMAIN NEAR BANK FULL.
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN TODAY COULD LEAD TO RENEWED RISES ON AREA
STREAMS AND RIVERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PORTIONS OF THE UPPER ILLINOIS RIVER WILL REMAIN NEAR BANK-FULL
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH WELL INTO THE 90S ON
FRIDAY...IN COMBINATION WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. THIS
WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 100 AND 105 FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

COMPLETE FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE NWS CHICAGO
WEBPAGE: WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO