AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN WI...NERN IL.
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 030023Z - 030230Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...GROWING CLUSTERS OF STG-SVR TSTMS OVER NERN AND E-CENTRAL
WI...INTERACTING WITH LM LAKE-BREEZE BOUNDARY -- APPEAR TO BE
GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AND GROWING UPSCALE SUCH THAT THEIR
INITIALLY ISOLATED SVR THREAT MAY BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE WIDESPREAD.
DISCUSSION...BOUNDARY WAS ANALYZED AT 00Z FROM COOK/LAKE COUNTIES IL
NNWWD TO SRN CLUSTER OVER WINNEBAGO COUNTY WI...THEN NWD TO
CONVECTION COVERING PORTIONS OCONTO/FOREST/LANGLADE COUNTIES.
ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS RELATIVELY WEAK...LACK OF MORE ROBUST
DEEP-LAYER WINDS ACTUALLY WILL AID IN THE SORT OF
REARWARD/DISCRETELY PROPAGATIONAL STORM-SCALE PROCESSES NECESSARY TO
KEEP THIS ACTIVITY GOING...WITHOUT NECESSARILY MOVING OVER
RELATIVELY STABLE AIR ON E SIDE OF LAKE BREEZE. ULTIMATELY...MIX OF
FORWARD- AND REARWARD-PROPAGATIONAL PROCESSES IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...IF COLD POOL AND RELATED ISALLOBARIC PERTURBATIONS BUILD
ENOUGH ON STORM SCALE. AS SUCH...THREAT FOR DAMAGING GUSTS AND OCNL
LARGE HAIL MAY EXPAND LATERALLY E-W...AS WELL AS TRANSLATE SWD
TOWARD SERN WI AND NERN IL. AIR MASS ON W SIDE OF BOUNDARY IS
CHARACTERIZED BY SFC TEMPS MID-UPPER 90S F...FCST TO COOL TO LOW 90S
IN NEXT 2-3 HOURS...AS WELL AS DEW POINTS RANGING FROM 70S OVER NRN
WI TO LOW-MID 60S NEAR WI/IL BORDER. WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS
WITH HIGHER DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OVER SRN WI/NRN WILL WILL BE MORE
SUITABLE FOR EVAPORATIONALLY DRIVEN OUTFLOW ACCELERATION...WHILE
PRECIP-LOADING PROCESSES ON STORM SCALE WILL DRIVE MOST
DAMAGING-WIND POTENTIAL WITH NERN WI ACTIVITY. BUOYANCY...THOUGH
LARGER FARTHER N...IS AND WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS TO SUPPORT STG-SVR TSTMS INTO SERN WI/NERN IL AS WELL...WITH
MLCAPE STILL AROUND 2000 J/KG SW MKE.
..EDWARDS/HART.. 07/03/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...LOT...MKX...ARX...
LAT...LON 42698951 45138975 45888919 45918848 45868811 44608791
42858791 41898784 41628842 42418935 42698951
