Thursday, July 5, 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 16:58:59.6052761

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND WRN OH...NRN AND ERN INDIANA...SRN LOWER
MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 052158Z - 052330Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ONGOING STORMS OVER SERN MI INTO NWRN OH MAY CONTINUE TO
EVOLVE AND POSE A DAMAGING WIND THREAT TO NRN INDIANA INTO WRN/CNTRL
OH.

DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING SWWD FROM SRN MI SEWD ACROSS CNTRL OH. THE
AIR MASS NEAR THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE...WITH MID TO
UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS. RADAR TRENDS INDICATE SOME CLUSTERING OF
STORMS NOW ENTERING NWRN OH OUT OF MI...AND THIS AREA MAY HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE OF GROWING UPSCALE AND BECOMING SEVERE. THE SRN EXTENT
OF THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD STOP NEAR THE OH RIVER WHERE THE AIR
MASS WAS RECENTLY OVERTURNED...AND SWWD INTO CNTRL IND WHERE LOWER
PWAT EXISTS WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE 59-61 F RANGE.

..JEWELL/CORFIDI.. 07/05/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...IND...LOT...

LAT...LON 39018443 39698634 40388698 40708722 41408761 41668748
41798700 41918654 41998568 41928486 41798431 41548405
40958333 40478270 40218236 39878236 39388252 39108307
38998427 39018443