...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE...AHPS...ENABLES
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...NWS...TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE
PROBABILISTIC RIVER OUTLOOKS...
THE VALUES IN THE TABLE BELOW ARE VALID JULY 30 2012 - 0CTOBER 28 2012
IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE
THE CHANCE THAT A LOCATION ON A RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED
STAGE LEVELS IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS.
FOR EXAMPLE: THE KANKAKEE RIVER AT DUNNS BRIDGE HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF
10 FEET. WITHIN THE NEXT 90 DAYS...THERE IS A 60 PERCENT CHANCE
THE RIVER WILL RISE ABOVE 3.9 FEET.
LOCATION FS (FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
-------- ------- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
KANKAKEE RIVER
DUNNS BRIDGE 10.0 3.0 3.1 3.5 3.9 4.3 4.7 5.2 5.6 6.9
KOUTS 11.0 4.2 4.2 4.5 4.9 5.3 5.7 6.2 6.7 8.1
SHELBY 9.0 4.5 4.6 5.1 5.5 5.8 6.2 6.4 7.1 9.3
MOMENCE 5.0 1.6 1.7 1.8 2.1 2.5 2.7 3.0 3.3 4.0
WILMINGTON 6.5 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.2 2.9 3.1 4.3
SUGAR CREEK
MILFORD 18.0 6.0 6.4 6.9 7.1 7.7 8.1 9.0 10.4 13.8
IROQUOIS RIVER
RENSSELAER 12.0 4.5 5.0 5.4 6.0 6.4 7.3 8.1 8.4 10.0
FORESMAN 18.0 6.5 7.3 8.1 9.1 10.0 10.6 11.2 12.4 14.3
IROQUOIS 18.0 5.6 6.7 7.2 8.1 8.9 9.6 10.5 11.7 14.6
CHEBANSE 16.0 3.4 3.9 4.2 4.6 5.0 5.4 5.9 6.9 8.3
DES PLAINES RIVER
RUSSELL 7.0 2.7 3.0 3.2 3.8 4.3 4.8 5.3 6.4 7.2
GURNEE 7.0 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.2 3.5 4.3 6.6
DES PLAINES 5.0 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.7 2.0 2.2 3.2 4.7
LINCOLNSHIRE 12.5 6.7 6.9 7.1 7.3 7.8 8.4 9.0 10.0 11.3
RIVERSIDE 7.0 3.0 3.3 3.9 4.3 4.7 5.4 5.7 6.5 8.6
FOX RIVER
ALGONQUIN TAILW 9.5 5.4 5.7 6.0 6.1 6.7 7.1 7.6 8.0 10.9
MONTGOMERY 13.0 11.4 11.5 11.5 11.7 11.8 12.0 12.2 12.6 13.6
DAYTON 12.0 6.0 6.1 6.3 6.9 7.2 7.8 8.6 10.1 12.7
EAST BR DU PAGE RIVER
BOLINGBROOK 19.5 16.2 16.9 17.6 18.3 18.7 19.2 19.5 20.4 21.6
DU PAGE RIVER
SHOREWOOD 6.5 3.1 3.5 4.0 4.4 4.7 4.9 5.5 5.8 7.2
MAZON RIVER
COAL CITY 12.0 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.4 3.6 5.0 6.3 7.3 9.9
VERMILION RIVER
PONTIAC 14.0 3.0 3.4 3.9 4.3 4.6 5.0 5.2 5.4 7.8
LEONORE 16.0 3.6 4.0 4.7 5.1 5.7 6.3 6.8 7.9 12.9
THORN CREEK
THORNTON 10.0 3.3 3.5 4.1 4.4 5.1 5.7 7.4 8.0 8.6
HART DITCH
DYER 12.0 2.8 3.2 3.6 3.9 4.4 4.8 5.4 6.4 7.7
LITTLE CALUMET RIVER
MUNSTER 12.0 8.0 8.6 9.1 9.4 9.9 10.8 12.3 13.7 15.7
SOUTH HOLLAND 16.5 7.5 7.9 8.5 9.0 9.9 10.6 11.8 12.2 13.0
ILLINOIS RIVER
MORRIS 16.0 5.3 5.5 5.6 5.9 6.8 7.9 8.9 11.0 15.9
OTTAWA 463.0
LA SALLE 20.0 11.4 11.7 11.8 12.4 12.9 14.6 15.6 19.1 22.0
KISHWAUKEE RIVER
BELVIDERE 9.0 1.3 1.8 2.1 2.5 2.8 3.3 3.8 4.3 6.1
PERRYVILLE 12.0 5.6 5.9 6.3 6.7 7.2 7.6 8.1 8.8 10.6
SOUTH BRANCH KISHWAUKEE RIVER
DE KALB 10.0 3.3 3.5 4.0 4.4 4.6 4.9 6.1 6.5 7.3
ROCK RIVER
ROCKTON 10.0 3.2 3.3 3.6 3.8 4.2 4.5 5.3 6.8 8.8
LATHAM PARK 10.0 4.1 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.8 5.2 5.8 7.1 8.4
ROCKFORD 9.0 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.2 3.5 3.8
BYRON 13.0 5.5 5.8 6.0 6.4 6.6 7.4 8.1 9.2 11.2
DIXON 16.0 8.0 8.3 8.5 8.8 8.9 9.6 10.1 11.0 12.7
PECATONICA RIVER
SHIRLAND 12.0 3.8 4.2 4.7 5.3 5.7 6.5 7.0 8.9 11.3
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO OFFICE IN ROMEOVILLE ISSUES LONG
RANGE AHPS OUTLOOKS FOR ALL RIVER FORECAST LOCATIONS. THIS PRODUCT IS
UPDATED MONTHLY AROUND MID-MONTH. THESE OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED IN
ADDITION TO THE 5 DAY RIVER FORECASTS THAT ARE ISSUED WHEN RIVER
FORECAST LOCATIONS ARE IN FLOOD OR FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE.
THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER...
SOIL MOISTURE...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION.
BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILISTIC NUMBERS...THE LEVEL
OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE
DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE.
VISIT OUR WEB PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO FOR MORE WEATHER AND RIVER
INFORMATION INCLUDING GRAPHS OF PROBABILISTIC RIVER OUTLOOKS.
