AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MN...SWRN WI...NERN IA...NRN IL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 181638Z - 181745Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...DMGG WIND AND HAIL WILL BECOME POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A LOOSELY ORGANIZED CLUSTER PROGRESSING SEWD WITH
TIME. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
DISCUSSION...THE ONGOING ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CNTRL/SRN MN
HAS LEFT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...LOCATED JUST E OF FARIBAULT MN AND
EXTENDING SWWD THROUGH ALGONA IA. TWO SEPARATE BOUNDARIES ARE ALSO
ORIENTED NEAR MN/WI/IA/IL...INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO A
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE ACROSS CNTRL WI...AND A COLD FRONT
ORIENTED ACROSS NRN IA AND IL. WITH AMBIENT MOISTURE AND SURFACE
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY WARMING INTO THE 80S TO LOWER 90S F...MODIFIED
MPX AND DVN SOUNDINGS INDICATE ANY REMAINING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
WILL BE ERODED SHORTLY. AS SUCH...EXPECT A GENERAL INCREASE IN
CONVECTION...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE OUTFLOW/COLD FRONT INTERSECTION
ACROSS SERN MN AND NERN IA. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS WEAK...AS
THE EVOLVING CLUSTER OF STORMS PROGRESSES TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES...IT WILL ENCOUNTER LIGHT-MODEST NWLY FLOW ALOFT...SUPPORTING
MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF DMGG WIND AND HAIL.
..HURLBUT/MEAD.. 07/18/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...
LAT...LON 42709397 44119258 44199143 43128941 42398833 41748764
41288800 41108877 41609009 42309247 42459406 42709397
