ACUS11 KWNS 050142
SWOMCD
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1481
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0841 PM CDT THU AUG 04 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 050141Z - 050245Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A DOWNSTREAM SVR WATCH MAY BE NEEDED AS THE ORGANIZED MCS
CONTINUES EWD.
DISCUSSION...NRN PORTION OF THE MCS MOVING ACROSS ERN IA HAS SHOWN
INCREASED FORWARD-PROPAGATION DURING THE PAST HOURS. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AT DBQ AND CID REPORTED GUSTS OF 47 AND 43
KTS...RESPECTIVELY...AS THE LINE MOVED THROUGH. CURRENT STORM MOTION
OF THE APEX OF THE BOWING SEGMENT IS ESTIMATED AROUND 40-45
KT...WHICH TAKES IT TO THE EDGE OF WW 433 IN NRN IL BY 0200Z. GIVEN
THE ORGANIZATION OF THE CURRENT MCS...A DOWNSTREAM SVR THREAT MAY
EXTEND FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE THE MCS WEAKENS.
..MOSIER/COHEN/GUYER.. 08/05/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...
LAT...LON 40809089 41439098 41919048 42538910 42488807 41718848
40538976 40809089
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