ACUS11 KWNS 171200
SWOMCD
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1305
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0700 AM CDT SUN JUL 17 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF NRN IL INTO FAR SERN WI
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 171200Z - 171400Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
MUCH OF NRN IL THIS MORNING...WITH WIDESPREAD WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE GUST FRONT.
DISCUSSION...A LONG-LIVED MCS IS NOW CROSSING THE MS RIVER AND
EXTENDS FROM FAR SRN WI INTO NWRN IL. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS HAVE
CONSISTENTLY MEASURED PEAK WIND GUSTS ON THE ORDER OF 40-45 KT AS IT
TRAVELED ACROSS IA...BUT A FEW STRONGER GUSTS ON A VERY LOCALIZED
SCALE HAVE ALSO OCCURRED WITH SMALL CHANNELS OF 60+ KT BASE VELOCITY
NOTED ON RADAR.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALSO SHOW COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LESS MOISTURE
DOWNSTREAM OF THIS SYSTEM WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME WEAKENING DUE TO
WEAKER INSTABILITY...BUT THIS SYSTEM HAS A PERSISTENT PRESSURE
RISE/FALL COUPLET INDICATIVE OF ORGANIZATION...THUS STRONG 30-40+ KT
WIND GUSTS MAY EVENTUALLY REACH THE CHICAGO AREA LATER THIS MORNING.
..JEWELL/EDWARDS.. 07/17/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...
LAT...LON 40738880 40699020 40729140 40929174 41189138 41409070
41929021 42159004 42528983 42728945 42988863 43048803
42898778 42438763 42038750 41748742 41178798 40738880
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