ACUS11 KWNS 231807
SWOMCD
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1371
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0106 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN WI...NRN IL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 231806Z - 232030Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF SRN WI AND NRN IL COULD
PRODUCE ISOLATED SVR WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...PRESENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY.
DISCUSSION...CLUSTERS OF TSTMS LINGER AT THE SRN END OF A BROADER
PLUME OF WAA-ENHANCED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY. SOME
OF THE STRONGEST TSTMS ARE SPREADING ACROSS PARTS OF FAR SWRN WI.
THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN PERSISTENT...AND HAS SHOWN SOME SIGNS OF
CONSOLIDATION/INTENSIFICATION S OF LONE ROCK WI. CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE SPREADING EWD/ESEWD IN PROXIMITY TO A DIFFUSE SYNOPTIC
BOUNDARY. AMPLE MOISTURE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY -- E.G.
SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 70S -- COMBINED WITH DIABATIC SFC
HEATING IS SUPPORTING MLCAPE AROUND 2500-3500 J/KG. THIS SHOULD
MAINTAIN A RISK FOR STRONG CONVECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE MKX
VWP SUGGESTS THAT DEEP SHEAR IS WEAK -- E.G. AOB 20 KT OF 0-6-KM
BULK SHEAR -- WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL SVR RISK.
HOWEVER...WATER-LOADING PROCESSES WILL ACCELERATE DOWNDRAFT
POTENTIAL SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SVR-WIND RISK THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.
..COHEN/WEISS.. 07/23/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...
LAT...LON 42238811 42248924 42498971 43038956 43238883 43108797
42568786 42238811
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