SRN WI.
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 124...
VALID 011256Z - 011500Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 124
CONTINUES.
CONTINUE WW ALONG AND E OF WRN FRINGES OF ELEVATED MCS. WHILE
OVERALL THREAT WILL DIMINISH GRADUALLY THROUGH REMAINDER WW VALID
PERIOD...OCNL/SPORADIC SVR HAIL POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE...MAINLY
WITH CELLS ON SWRN/WRN FRINGES OF PERSISTENT MCS WHERE CONVECTION
HAS RELATIVELY UNIMPEDED ACCESS TO FAVORABLE THETAE.
VWP/PROFILER DATA INDICATE TWO PRIMARY LLJ BRANCHES...STRONGEST ONE
MERIDIONALLY ORIENTED OVER CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...SECONDARY BRANCH
WITH 30-35 KT AXIAL FLOW FROM OZARKS NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL IL.
MEANWHILE...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW OVER NEB/IA BORDER...WARM FRONT
ESEWD OVER DSM AREA THEN SEWD ACROSS ERN FRINGES STL AREA IN IL.
ISENTROPIC ASCENT TO LFC WILL CONTINUE NE OF SFC WARM FRONT OVER
IL/SRN WI IN SUPPORT OF CONVECTION...WHILE ISENTROPES AT LFC LEVEL
SHIFT EWD WITH TIME. GREATEST BUOYANCY -- I.E. ELEVATED MUCAPE
AROUND 1500 J/KG -- SHOULD REMAIN ON SWRN SIDE OF COMPLEX WHERE
AVAILABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES EACH ARE
RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED. CAPE WILL DIMINISH NWD AND NEWD FROM
W-CENTRAL IL. EFFECTIVE SHEAR ALSO WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WITH EWD
EXTENT...PARTLY AS FUNCTION OF SHALLOWER CONVECTION-BEARING LAYERS
WITH RESPECT TO STRONGER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.
..EDWARDS.. 04/01/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...
LAT...LON 40529059 42409073 42969073 42878899 42448835 41518813
40568837 40178925 40529059
