ACUS11 KWNS 290131
SWOMCD
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0774
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0830 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...SE WI...N-CNTRL/CNTRL IL
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 225...
VALID 290130Z - 290230Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 225
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...WW 225 IS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 02Z AND CAN GENERALLY BE
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 02Z...ALTHOUGH LOCAL TEMPORAL EXTENSION MAY BE
CONSIDERED ACROSS CNTRL IL.
DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A LINE OF
TSTMS EXTENDING FROM SE WI SSWWD BACK INTO CNTRL IL. THE PORTION OF
THIS LINE IN SE WI AND N-CNTRL IL HAS SHOWN EPISODIC UPDRAFT
INTENSIFICATION...PRIMARILY AS OLDER UPDRAFTS INTERACT WITH NEWER
UPDRAFTS DEVELOPING ALONG THE OUTFLOW. THIS LINE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE NEWD AT 30-35 KT...TAKING IT INTO WRN LAKE MICHIGAN BY 02Z /THE
WATCH EXPIRATION TIME/. AS SUCH...THE WATCH HERE WILL BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AT 02Z. BEFORE THEN...ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
FARTHER S /CNTRL IL/...00Z ILX SOUNDING SAMPLED AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS
WITH SBCAPE OVER 2500 J PER KG. THE VERTICAL SHEAR SAMPLED BY THE
SOUNDING IS RATHER WEAK /0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 23 KT AND EFFECTIVE
SHEAR OF 25 KT/...SUGGESTING ANY STORM ORGANIZATION WOULD BE BRIEF.
EVEN SO...SOME DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY AS A RESULT OF UPDRAFT INTERACTIONS. LOCAL
TEMPORAL EXTENSION MAY BE NEEDED IN THIS AREA IF STORMS DO NOT BEGIN
TO SHOW A DIMINISHING TREND.
..MOSIER.. 05/29/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX...
LAT...LON 40279092 40269046 40709044 40709000 40959000 40978967
41218964 41248988 41608988 41588962 42208969 42238992
42498993 42518980 43238981 43988962 43978889 43898890
43898842 43948830 43898816 43888780 43888771 43668772
43458785 43188791 42838781 42768775 42478781 42498819
42158820 42148857 41628863 41618917 41098915 40918890
40708893 40578929 40338925 40328961 40138961 40128994
40089035 39969057 40109071 40109093 40279092
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