ACUS11 KWNS 252305
SWOMCD
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0446
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0604 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN WI...NRN IL...AND FAR NWRN IND
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 103...
VALID 252304Z - 260030Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 103
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...MAINLY A LARGE HAIL AND STRONG/GUSTY WIND THREAT SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING.
DISCUSSION...CONVECTION ACROSS WW 103 HAS BEEN MAINLY CONFINED TO
FAR ERN WI AND NERN IL THUS FAR ALONG A CONVERGENT LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARY OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. MOST HAIL REPORTS OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS HAVE REMAINED SUB-SEVERE...PROBABLY DUE TO LIMITED LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE RESULTING IN JUST A WEAKLY UNSTABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE.
MID-LEVEL FLOW AROUND 40-50 KT ALONG WITH SOME VEERING OF SWLY
LOW-LEVEL WINDS WITH HEIGHT SHOULD CONTINUE TO ALLOW ANY STRONGER
CORES ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE TO PRODUCE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG/GUSTY WINDS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS DIURNAL COOLING FURTHER REDUCES THE ALREADY
LIMITED INSTABILITY AND ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS MOVE EWD OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN.
..GLEASON.. 04/25/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...
LAT...LON 40988987 41348981 42238930 42848881 43648848 43858819
43838717 41288699 40968834 40978942 40988987
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