ACUS11 KWNS 171849
SWOMCD
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1809
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0149 PM CDT THU SEP 17 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IL AND SE WI
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 171849Z - 172045Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NRN IL AND SE
WI OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL
BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO
MARGINAL FOR WW ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS SLY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF
THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION WITH SFC DEWPOINTS ACROSS IL AND WI
MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S F. A CONVECTIVE LINE IS ONGOING IN NW
IL...JUST AHEAD OF A PRONOUNCED THERMAL AXIS ANALYZED FROM WRN IL
EXTENDING NNEWD INTO SE WI WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S F. DUE
TO INCREASING SFC TEMPS...THE CAP IS NOW GONE ACROSS NRN IL AND SE
WI WITH MLCAPE VALUES ESTIMATED TO BE IN THE 1000 TO 1200 J/KG
RANGE. IN ADDITION...THE MILWAUKEE WSR-88D VWP SHOWS GRADUALLY
VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT AND 30 KT OF 0-6 K SHEAR. THIS ALONG WITH
THE INCREASING INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE
THREAT THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE MODE SHOULD REMAIN LINEAR...HAIL
COULD OCCUR WITH THE MORE INTENSE CELLS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE.
ALSO...STRONG GUSTY WINDS COULD OCCUR WITH ANY PARTS OF THE LINE
THAT CAN INTENSIFY AND OBTAIN A BOWING STRUCTURE.
..BROYLES/MEAD.. 09/17/2015
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...
LAT...LON 41338775 42238776 42998788 43158830 43108888 42978912
42758932 42468959 42018996 41229025 41099014 40968951
41338775
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