ACUS11 KWNS 092305
SWOMCD
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0259
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0604 PM CDT THU APR 09 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR EASTERN IA AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL IL INTO
SOUTHEAST WI
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 39...41...
VALID 092304Z - 100030Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 39...41...CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE HAIL WILL CONTINUE
FROM FAR EASTERN IA INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL IL AND SOUTHERN WI...WITH
THE GREATEST RISK FOR TORNADOES AND POSSIBLY AN INCREASING DAMAGING
WIND THREAT ACROSS NORTHERN IL THROUGH EARLY/MID EVENING NEAR THE
WARM FRONT.
DISCUSSION...AS OF 2230Z...A 996 MB SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO
STEADILY DEEPEN NEAR THE QUAD CITIES AREA...WITH A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING GENERALLY EASTWARD ACROSS FAR NORTHERN IL APPROXIMATELY
NEAR/JUST NORTH OF I-88/REAGAN TOLLWAY. THE MOST INTENSE STORMS
/INCLUDING AN APPARENT CYCLIC HP SUPERCELL WITH REPORTED TORNADOES/
ARE ONGOING NEAR JUST/NORTH OF THE QUAD CITIES IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE LOW...BUT OTHER ISOLATED DISCRETE STORMS INCLUDING AT
LEAST TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS ARE ONGOING ACROSS OTHER PARTS OF
WEST-CENTRAL/NORTHERN IL.
WHILE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/SRH WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR IS STRONG ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A TORNADO RISK AMID LOWER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS...ANY
SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS INTERACTING WITH/CROSSING THE WARM FRONT MAY
ESPECIALLY POSE A TORNADO THREAT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN IL.
THIS INCLUDES THE HP SUPERCELL NEAR/JUST NORTH OF THE QUAD CITIES
AREA...IN ADDITION STORMS OVER LEE/OGLE COUNTIES IL SOUTHWEST OF
ROCKFORD AS OF 2250Z. SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF SEVERE
HAIL AND TORNADOES WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT SCENARIO OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...WITH A STRONG TORNADO POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY ACROSS
NORTHERN IL IN VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT. OVER TIME...AN
INCREASINGLY MIXED/UPSCALE-GROWING MODE MAY EVOLVE VIA CELL
MERGERS...WITH A CORRESPONDING DAMAGING WIND RISK ALSO INCREASING
PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN IL.
..GUYER.. 04/09/2015
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...
LAT...LON 42149035 42948961 43038829 42468774 40648769 39668986
40469108 41509102 42149035
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http://goo.gl/hpMI5a
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