ACUS11 KWNS 230547
SWOMCD
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0132
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1247 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
VALID 230547Z - 230945Z
SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR...LOCALLY TO 3 IN/HR
WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS
MORNING.
DISCUSSION...A SWATH OF HEAVY SNOW IS LIKELY TO EVOLVE SOUTHEAST
FROM SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN/NORTHEAST IOWA
INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. METARS CONFIRM 1/4-1/2 MILE VISIBILITY ALONG
THE WESTERN/NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MIXED PRECIPITATION BAND...WITH
STORM REPORTS OF 7-8 INCHES FALLING EARLIER FROM THE FAR SOUTHERN
TWIN CITIES METRO TOWARDS ROCHESTER.
VAD WIND-PROFILE AT DES MOINES/DAVENPORT RADARS SAMPLED A VERY LARGE
LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH INDICATIVE OF THE ROBUST WAA AHEAD OF THE LEAD
SHORTWAVE IMPULSE THAT SHOULD TRACK TOWARDS CHICAGO BY LATE MORNING.
EVENING GUIDANCE MAINTAINS THIS WAA PROFILE/STRONG FRONTOGENESIS
THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z. IN CONJUNCTION WITH SCANT ELEVATED BUOYANCY
AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE GREAT
PLAINS ELEVATED-MIXED LAYER...THUNDERSNOW MAY DEVELOP AS FAR
SOUTHEAST AS NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. SREF AND CONVECTION-ALLOWING
GUIDANCE ARE QUITE CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING 1-2 IN/HR SNOWFALL
RATES...LOCALLY TO 3 IN/HR PROGRESSING INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY
12Z.
..GRAMS.. 03/23/2015
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...
LAT...LON 43449269 43829254 44079216 44029155 43679042 43288920
42658849 42248837 41888866 41728908 41688959 41909020
42119082 42729195 43049239 43449269
WWWW
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