AREAS AFFECTED...SE WI...FAR NE IL...LAKE MI
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 040215Z - 040345Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS ACROSS SE WI AND MOVE EWD INTO LAKE MI LATE THIS
EVENING. WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS BUT A
BRIEF TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING EWD ACROSS NE IA INTO SRN WI. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING
ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE VICINITY
OF THE FRONT ARE IN THE MID 60S F AND MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED AROUND
1000 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH 35 TO 40 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT. IN ADDITION...THE WSR-88D
VWP AT MILWAUKEE SHOWS DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH
0-1 KM SHEAR AT 30 KT. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A BRIEF TORNADO WITH
CELLS THAT CAN OBTAIN ROTATION. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. THE SEVERE
THREAT OVER LAND MAY LESSEN AS THE CELLS MOVE OVER LAKE MI LATE THIS
EVENING.
..BROYLES/CORFIDI.. 10/04/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...
LAT...LON 43708764 43688862 43398914 43048946 42438929 42268865
42318790 42458747 43288743 43708764
