AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LWR MI AND ADJACENT NRN IND...NW OH
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 498...
VALID 280129Z - 280230Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 498
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...WW 498 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 02Z.
DISCUSSION...MODELS DO STILL SUGGEST THAT SOME STRENGTHENING OF
RELATIVELY MODEST WESTERLY 850 MB FLOW FIELDS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THIS EVENING...ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SOUTHEASTWARD
DEVELOPING FRONTAL WAVE. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE GENERAL WEAKNESS OF
THE BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY EVIDENT IN LATEST OBJECTIVE
ANALYSES...AND THE ONSET OF DIURNAL SURFACE COOLING...THIS DOES NOT
SEEM LIKELY TO BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A SUBSTANTIVE INCREASE IN
SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PROBABLY WILL PERSIST
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND MICHIGAN ANOTHER
COUPLE OF HOURS...BEFORE BECOMING FOCUSED IN STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO BY THE 04-06Z TIME FRAME.
HOWEVER...THE NEED FOR A NEW SEVERE WEATHER WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED.
..KERR.. 08/28/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...LOT...MKX...ARX...
LAT...LON 43908984 43468766 43358636 43198485 42938338 42818261
42688198 41988076 41048124 40888350 41378470 41798691
41978791 43458956 43908984
