AREAS AFFECTED...SERN IA EWD ACROSS SWRN LOWER MI AND NRN PARTS OF
IL AND IND
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 021924Z - 022030Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A RISK FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
PERHAPS SOME HAIL. THIS THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED AND A
WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
DISCUSSION...LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA INDICATE DEEPENING CUMULUS
AND EARLY TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NRN IL...ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
SEWD-MOVING COLD FRONT. HERE...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE
LOW TO MID 80S...AND WHEN COUPLED WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID 60S IS RESULTING IN AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH
MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG. INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED
WITH A LOW-AMPLITUDE PERTURBATION MOVING OUT OF THE MID MO VALLEY
WILL AUGMENT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT TO ENCOURAGE FURTHER STORM
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF A MODESTLY STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD...SOME
POTENTIAL FOR STORM ORGANIZATION/SUSTENANCE WILL EXIST WITH AN
ATTENDANT RISK FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS SOME
HAIL.
..MEAD/GOSS.. 08/02/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN...
LAT...LON 41359184 42119018 42218749 41768501 40958482 40128570
39908821 40149046 40729186 41359184
