AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND NERN IL/NRN IND/PART OF SRN LOWER
MI/FAR NWRN OH
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 071846Z - 072045Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND AFFECT PARTS OF CENTRAL
TO NERN IL...FAR SRN LAKE MICHIGAN...FAR NRN IND...AND POTENTIALLY
THROUGH PORTION OF SRN LOWER MI AND NWRN OH THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW
STRONGER STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH SOME BECOMING SEVERE WITH HAIL
AND LOCALLY STRONG WINDS. CURRENT FORECAST THINKING EXPECTS THE
COVERAGE OF THE STRONGER/SVR THREAT TO REMAIN TOO LOW TO WARRANT THE
ISSUANCE OF A WATCH.
DISCUSSION...EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSES SHOWED A COLD FRONT
CONTINUING TO ADVANCE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND AT 18Z
THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDED SWWD THROUGH NRN LAKE HURON TO NERN INTO SWRN
LOWER MI...INTO NERN IL /NORTH OF CHICAGO/ AND ACROSS NRN IL.
ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN FAR
NERN IL...THE REST OF THE STORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED SO FAR ACROSS
THE DISCUSSION AREA TEND TO BE INVOF OF A PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT.
MODELS SUGGEST AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSES CONFIRM THAT STRONGER FORCING
FOR ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NEWD AWAY FROM THE WARM
SECTOR...WITH A GRADUAL RISE IN HEIGHTS...WARMING MIDLEVEL
TEMPERATURES AND WEAKENING WLY MIDLEVEL WINDS. WHILE THE TRENDS IN
THESE FACTORS SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF STRONGER TO
SEVERE STORMS...A RESIDUAL MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT AND SUFFICIENT BULK SHEAR SUGGEST SPORADIC
UPSCALE GROWTH WILL BE POSSIBLE. THUS...AN ISOLATED THREAT EXISTS
FOR HAIL AROUND 1 INCH IN DIAMETER AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
..PETERS/KERR.. 08/07/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN...
LAT...LON 40399066 40669060 41008982 41308915 41978794 41998687
41908587 42478462 42238396 41168446 40938523 40738632
40408759 40128901 39958958 40399066
