McHenry County WX: August 2013

Saturday, August 31, 2013

Mesoscale Discussion 18:10:58.6480341

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SRN IL...W-CENTRAL/SWRN IND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 508...

VALID 312309Z - 010015Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 508
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SVR TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...PRIMARILY ACROSS ERN
TWO-THIRDS OF WW. A MORE CONCENTRATED SVR WIND THREAT MAY EVOLVE
FROM SVR TSTMS NEAR DNV THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

DISCUSSION...MESOANALYSIS REVEALS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING GENLY
E/SEWD FROM A WEAK SFC LOW NEAR DNV TO NEAR IND...AND A SFC
TROF/WIND SHIFT EXTENDING SWD FROM THE LOW INTO SRN IL. STG/OCNLY
SVR TSTMS CONTINUE ALONG THE FRONT AND SFC TROF. SOME ADDITIONAL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE THRU THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SWD INTO A STRONGLY UNSTABLE AND UNCAPPED AIR
MASS. SUBTLE ADDITIONAL FORCING FROM AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING
EWD ACROSS THE NRN OH VALLEY MAY ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT.

ALTHOUGH EFFECTIVE SHEAR REMAINS WEAK /AOB 25 KTS/...TSTMS MAY
ORGANIZE AROUND MERGING COLD POOLS AND MOVE SEWD WITH A
LOCALLY-ENHANCED SVR WIND/HAIL THREAT THROUGH 02-03Z. THIS APPEARS
MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE FRONT AND SURFACE
TROF CURRENTLY NEAR DNV...WHERE TSTM COVERAGE/COLD POOL GENERATION
POTENTIAL IS GREATEST.

..BUNTING/CORFIDI.. 08/31/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...

LAT...LON 40218973 40428929 40518874 40488805 40388720 40258682
39948634 39578598 39028628 38748655 38498681 38418710
38458758 38628813 39068918 39208956 39628990 39908999
40218973

Mesoscale Discussion 14:25:02.5138298

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN IL...W-CNTRL/SWRN IND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 311924Z - 312130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTM INITIATION IS EXPECTED SOON ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING ACROSS CNTRL IL. A STRONGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL
LIKELY PROMOTE A FEW SVR STORMS WITH STRONG WINDS/LARGE HAIL
POSSIBLE. AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK IS BEING PLANNED FOR 20Z AND
TRENDS ACROSS THE AREA ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

DISCUSSION...RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS RECENTLY SHOWN
MORE AGITATED CU ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM 20 NNE PIA
/IN CNTRL IL/ SWWD TO SZL IN NW MO. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AMIDST LOW TO MID 70S
DEWPOINTS. AS A RESULT...STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE OVER 2500 J PER
KG PER RAP-BASED MESOANALYSIS/ EXISTS ACROSS THE AREA. MODIFIED 12Z
RAOBS AND RECENT MESOANALYSIS REVEAL LITTLE TO NO CINH REMAINS AND
TSTM INITIATION IS EXPECTED SOON.

ONCE THUNDERSTORM INITIATION OCCURS...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR QUICK
UPDRAFT GROWTH WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF BOTH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA IS GENERALLY LOW WITH MESOANALYSIS
ESTIMATING EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES AROUND 25 KT. HOWEVER...RECENT WV
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPACT DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH CNTRL
IA. AS THIS FEATURES MOVES INTO THE MID MS VALLEY...SOME INCREASE IN
VERTICAL SHEAR IS POSSIBLE...IN ADDITION TO ENHANCED LARGE-SCALE
LIFT.

THIS COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS FAVORS AN INCREASED SVR RISK WITH
ANY TSTMS THAT DO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. SOME POTENTIAL ALSO
EXISTS FOR COLD POOL CONGLOMERATION AND UPSCALE GROWTH...ALTHOUGH
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH REGARDING THAT SCENARIO ATTM. AN UPGRADE TO
SLIGHT RISK IS BEING PLANNED FOR 20Z AND TRENDS ACROSS THE AREA ARE
BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

..MOSIER/GOSS.. 08/31/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...

LAT...LON 39699078 40129009 40718937 40858869 40508751 40178693
39508633 38268673 37868806 37518866 37668948 37968992
38839063 39699078

Friday, August 30, 2013

Mesoscale Discussion 20:32:56.7323624

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NRN IL...NRN IND...SRN LOWER MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 504...

VALID 310132Z - 310230Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 504
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SVR THREAT MAY CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS
BEYOND 02Z ACROSS NRN IL AND POSSIBLY NWRN IND...HOWEVER OVERALL
TRENDS ARE SUCH THAT AN ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AFT 02Z.

DISCUSSION...AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND HAS BEEN NOTED SINCE 00Z
WITH TSTMS OVER NWRN IND...WHILE INTERMITTENT/ISOLATED SVR TSTMS
PERSIST OVER NRN IL W OF ROCKFORD IN AN AREA OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY. DIURNAL COOLING/INCREASING CINH WILL RESULT IN
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING INSTABILITY WITH TIME...AND THE OVERALL SVR
THREAT BEYOND 02Z IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED AT BEST. ISOLD SVR
TSTMS WILL REMAIN MOST LIKELY OVER NRN IL FOR A COUPLE MORE
HOURS...WHERE MODEST WLY FLOW ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER /SAMPLED BY
THE KDVN VWP/ WILL RESULT IN WAA ATOP THE WRN FLANK OF AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM NEAR IKK TO VYS TO SFY.

..BUNTING/CORFIDI.. 08/31/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR...LOT...DVN...

LAT...LON 42478982 41858838 41708711 41878647 42818433 42008452
41798483 41398565 40988673 40938767 41418956 42478982

Flood Statement 20:32:42.7322238

...THE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR
COOK...SOUTHERN LAKE...DUPAGE...MCHENRY AND KANE COUNTIES HAS BEEN
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE...

EXCESS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE ADVISORY AREA.
STREAMS AND CREEKS IN THE ADVISORY AREA HAVE RECEDED OR WERE
BEGINNING TO RECEDE...ENDING THE FLOOD THREAT. IF FLOODING HAS BEEN
OBSERVED...PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

LAT...LON 4242 8844 4230 8820 4219 8778 4206 8766
4190 8760 4184 8760 4175 8752 4166 8753
4169 8803 4173 8803 4172 8860 4215 8859
4215 8870 4249 8871 4250 8870

Watch County Notification 19:34:08.6974351

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS CANCELLED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH 504 FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS...

IN ILLINOIS THIS CANCELS 4 COUNTIES

IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...

COOK
DUPAGE
LAKE IL
MCHENRY

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...CHICAGO...WAUKEGAN...
WHEATON AND WOODSTOCK.

Mesoscale Discussion 19:11:23.6839216

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IL/NWRN IND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 504...

VALID 310010Z - 310115Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 504
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SVR TSTMS OVER NRN IL/NWRN IND WILL CONT MOVING SWD AND
MAY REQUIRE LOCAL WFO EXTENSION OF WW 504.

DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE SRN SUBURBS OF CHICAGO
WILL MOVE S AT 30 KTS AND WILL MOST LIKELY POSE A CONTINUED SVR
THREAT BEYOND THE AREAS CURRENTLY COVERED WITHIN WW 504. THE LEADING
EDGE OF A BOWING SEGMENT OF SVR TSTMS CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS THE
SRN PORTIONS OF THE CHICAGO METRO AREA AND CONTINUES TO MOVE SWD
TOWARDS THE SRN PERIPHERY OF WW 504. WITH A WELL-DEVELOPED COLD POOL
ESTABLISHED AND MODERATE-STRONG INSTABILITY IN THE IMMEDIATE
DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT...THE SVR THREAT MAY CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS INTO AREAS SOUTH OF CURRENT WW. THE NEED FOR A NEW WW BEYOND
02Z IS UNCERTAIN...HOWEVER CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED.

..BUNTING/CORFIDI.. 08/31/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...LOT...ILX...DVN...

LAT...LON 40508811 41108912 41498920 41808915 41898882 41578780
41618717 41678692 41578668 41298655 40828654 40548739
40508811

Severe Weather Statement 18:31:37.6603002

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN DE KALB...SOUTHERN
BOONE...SOUTHWESTERN MCHENRY AND NORTHWESTERN KANE COUNTIES HAS
EXPIRED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
HOWEVER...NICKEL SIZED HAIL...WINDS TO 50 MPH AND HEAVY RAIN ARE
STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 4230 8868 4216 8840 4195 8890 4221 8892
TIME...MOT...LOC 2318Z 338DEG 16KT 4213 8876

Severe Weather Statement 18:18:51.6527169

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN DE
KALB...SOUTHERN BOONE...SOUTHWESTERN MCHENRY AND NORTHWESTERN KANE
COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM CDT...

AT 616 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR KINGSTON...AND
MOVING SOUTH AT 20 MPH.

HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO
ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
KINGSTON AND GENOA AROUND 625 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4230 8868 4216 8840 4195 8890 4221 8892
TIME...MOT...LOC 2317Z 338DEG 16KT 4213 8876

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH

Radar Scan Zone Alert

This is a severe weather alert from McHenry County Wx.

The alert occurred at 06:08 PM on Aug 30 2013.
The site being monitored is LOT in Chicago, IL.

The site is operating in VCP mode 12.

McHenry County Wx triggered the alert because precipitation exceeded 55 dBZ (VIP level 11).
The maximum detected precipitation level is 60 dBZ (VIP level 12).

McHenry County Wx precipitation sensitivity is set to 50.

The current radar product is Short Range Composite Reflectivity (NCR).

The text description for the maximum detected precipitation level is: "4" to 8"/hr very heavy rain: marble size hail possible".

Severe Weather Statement 18:01:31.6424209

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN DE
KALB...SOUTHERN BOONE...SOUTHWESTERN MCHENRY AND NORTHWESTERN KANE
COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM CDT...

AT 559 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BELVIDERE...
AND MOVING SOUTH AT 20 MPH.

HAZARD...HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO
ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
KIRKLAND AROUND 620 PM CDT.
KINGSTON AND GENOA AROUND 625 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4236 8873 4216 8840 4195 8890 4227 8893
TIME...MOT...LOC 2301Z 338DEG 16KT 4220 8880

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...60MPH

Severe Weather Statement 17:43:40.6318179

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN DE
KALB...BOONE...SOUTHWESTERN MCHENRY AND NORTHWESTERN KANE COUNTIES
UNTIL 630 PM CDT...

AT 542 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BELVIDERE...
AND MOVING SOUTH AT 20 MPH.

HAZARD...HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO
ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
KIRKLAND AROUND 620 PM CDT.
KINGSTON AROUND 625 PM CDT.
GENOA AROUND 630 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4216 8840 4195 8890 4237 8894 4244 8882
TIME...MOT...LOC 2243Z 338DEG 16KT 4227 8884

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...60MPH

Severe Weather Statement 17:34:49.6265611

Flood Statement 17:34:41.6264819

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
COOK COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
DUPAGE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
KANE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
MCHENRY COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 830 PM CDT

* AT 529 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE CHICAGO METRO AREA. DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS
IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH PER HOUR WITH THESE STORMS...WITH EVEN
ISOLATED AREAS AROUND TWO INCHES PER HOUR UNDER THE STRONGEST
STORMS. A VOLUNTEER OBSERVER IN HARVARD REPORTED OVER TWO AND A
HALF INCHES OF RAIN IN ONE HOUR.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING TO
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY ALONG SMALL STREAMS...NEAR LOW WATER
CROSSINGS...AND IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL
EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING INCLUDE CHICAGO AND NORTHERN...
NORTHWESTERN...AND WESTERN AREAS OF THE METRO. THE INTERSTATE 90
AND 88 CORRIDORS...ALONG WITH ROADWAYS THROUGHOUT THE METRO...WILL
BE AFFECTED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO AND A HALF INCHES OF RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE ADVISORY AREA...THROUGH 830 PM.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THIS STORM WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ON SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...URBAN AREAS...
HIGHWAYS... VIADUCTS...UNDERPASSES AND LOW LYING AREAS.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 4242 8844 4230 8820 4219 8778 4206 8766
4190 8760 4184 8760 4175 8752 4166 8753
4169 8803 4173 8803 4172 8860 4215 8859
4215 8870 4249 8871 4250 8870

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 17:24:41.6205419

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
BOONE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
NORTHERN DE KALB COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
NORTHWESTERN KANE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
SOUTHWESTERN MCHENRY COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 630 PM CDT

* AT 520 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR POPLAR
GROVE...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO
ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BELVIDERE...MARENGO...GENOA...KIRKLAND...KINGSTON...HUNTLEY AND
UNION.

OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED...
BOONE COUNTY FAIRGROUNDS...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4216 8840 4195 8890 4237 8894 4244 8882
TIME...MOT...LOC 2224Z 323DEG 19KT 4234 8885

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH

Severe Weather Statement 17:19:45.6176114

Severe Weather Statement 17:16:46.6158394

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN LAKE AND NORTHERN
MCHENRY COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED...

THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR
PROPERTY. HOWEVER...HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE
STILL POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

LAT...LON 4250 8780 4249 8779 4239 8780 4235 8782
4232 8782 4231 8797 4230 8867 4242 8871
4249 8871 4250 8869 4250 8798
TIME...MOT...LOC 2205Z 327DEG 26KT 4237 8782 4233 8805
4231 8858

Mesoscale Discussion 17:14:58.6147702

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF EXTREME ERN IA...SRN WI...NRN
IL...LM...SRN LOWER MI AND ADJACENT LH

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 504...

VALID 302214Z - 302315Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 504
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE SVR THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE WW AREA...WITH THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL ACROSS WRN PORTIONS THRU 02Z.

DISCUSSION...SVR TSTMS ACROSS EXTREME SERN WI CONTINUE TO MOVE S AT
30 KTS INTO NRN IL...WITH A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
STRENGTHENING COLD POOL/MERGING OUTFLOWS SUGGEST THAT A SWD-MOVING
CLUSTER OF SVR TSTMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. THE
ENVIRONMENT IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF SVR WX WITH
MLCAPE OF 2500 J/KG...AND RELATIVELY STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT...WITH LARGE
HAIL AND A BRIEF TORNADO ALSO POSSIBLE.

ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF THE WW...TSTMS HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO
STRENGTHEN...HOWEVER A CELL OVER BAY CO MI HAS SHOWN SOME
INTENSIFICATION SINCE 21Z. OVERALL ENVIRONMENT OVER LOWER MI PORTION
OF THE WW IS CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPES
1500-2000 J/KG/ AND 35-40 KTS OF DEEP SHEAR. STRONGER STORMS OVER
ERN PORTIONS OF THE WW WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO EXHIBIT SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES WITH AN ASSOCIATED THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
GUSTS.

ELSEWHERE..AN ISOLATED INTENSE TSTM OVER DUBUQUE CO IA IS LOCATED
WITHIN AN INSTABILITY AXIS WHERE MLCAPE APPROACHES 3000 J/KG.
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS SLIGHTLY LOWER IN THIS AREA...BUT STILL
SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED TSTMS WITH A LOCALIZED SVR WIND/HAIL
THREAT.

..BUNTING/CORFIDI.. 08/30/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...
ARX...

LAT...LON 42809135 43138964 43088805 43538684 43818607 44008343
44128288 43918246 43408237 43108294 42748390 41998463
41278747 41088903 41318994 42149094 42809135

Radar Scan Zone Alert

This is a severe weather alert from McHenry County Wx.

The alert occurred at 05:08 PM on Aug 30 2013.
The site being monitored is LOT in Chicago, IL.

The site is operating in VCP mode 12.

McHenry County Wx triggered the alert because precipitation exceeded 55 dBZ (VIP level 11).
The maximum detected precipitation level is 65 dBZ (VIP level 13).

McHenry County Wx precipitation sensitivity is set to 50.

The current radar product is Short Range Composite Reflectivity (NCR).

The text description for the maximum detected precipitation level is: "8" to 16"/hr very heavy rain: marble size to golf ball sized hail possible".

Severe Weather Statement 17:05:42.6092658

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN LAKE
AND NORTHERN MCHENRY COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM CDT...

AT 500 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM WAUKEGAN TO ROUND LAKE TO 5 MILES SOUTH OF HARVARD...
AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL AND 70 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE
TREE DAMAGE. WIND DAMAGE IS ALSO LIKELY TO MOBILE HOMES...
ROOFS AND OUTBUILDINGS.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
NORTH CHICAGO AROUND 510 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4250 8780 4249 8779 4239 8780 4235 8782
4232 8782 4231 8797 4230 8867 4242 8871
4249 8871 4250 8869 4250 8798
TIME...MOT...LOC 2205Z 327DEG 26KT 4237 8782 4233 8805
4231 8858

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...70MPH

Radar Scan Zone Alert

This is a severe weather alert from McHenry County Wx.

The alert occurred at 05:04 PM on Aug 30 2013.
The site being monitored is LOT in Chicago, IL.

The site is operating in VCP mode 12.

McHenry County Wx triggered the alert because precipitation exceeded 55 dBZ (VIP level 11).
The maximum detected precipitation level is 60 dBZ (VIP level 12).

McHenry County Wx precipitation sensitivity is set to 50.

The current radar product is Short Range Composite Reflectivity (NCR).

The text description for the maximum detected precipitation level is: "4" to 8"/hr very heavy rain: marble size hail possible".

Severe Weather Statement 17:00:06.6059394

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN
COOK...SOUTHERN LAKE...NORTHERN DUPAGE...NORTHEASTERN DE KALB...
SOUTHERN MCHENRY AND NORTHERN KANE COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM CDT...

AT 457 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NORTH CHICAGO TO HAWTHORN WOODS TO MARENGO...AND
MOVING SOUTH AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL AND 70 MPH WIND GUSTS. WINDS TO 80
MPH ARE POSSIBLE FROM ROUND LAKE PARK TO MUNDELEIN TO BUFFALO GROVE.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE
TREE DAMAGE. WIND DAMAGE IS ALSO LIKELY TO MOBILE HOMES...
ROOFS AND OUTBUILDINGS.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
LONG GROVE AND LINCOLNSHIRE AROUND 505 PM CDT.
HIGHLAND PARK AND RIVERWOODS AROUND 510 PM CDT.
WHEELING AND WEST DUNDEE AROUND 515 PM CDT.
NORTHFIELD AND GLENCOE AROUND 520 PM CDT.
WILMETTE AND WILMETTE HARBOR AROUND 525 PM CDT.
MORTON GROVE AND SKOKIE AROUND 530 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE FOX RIVER GROVE...DEER PARK...
HIGHWOOD...BARRINGTON HILLS...SOUTH BARRINGTON...PINGREE GROVE...
BURLINGTON...GOLF...SOUTH ELGIN AND BLOOMINGDALE.

THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF CHICAGO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMAIN ALERT FOR A POSSIBLE TORNADO! TORNADOES CAN DEVELOP QUICKLY
FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IF YOU SPOT A TORNADO GO AT ONCE INTO THE
BASEMENT OR SMALL CENTRAL ROOM IN A STURDY STRUCTURE.

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4233 8781 4227 8782 4222 8780 4211 8772
4208 8767 4205 8766 4194 8806 4185 8859
4231 8871 4231 8870 4233 8816 4235 8782
TIME...MOT...LOC 2158Z 350DEG 30KT 4229 8785 4223 8803
4225 8860

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...70MPH

Radar Scan Zone Alert

This is a severe weather alert from McHenry County Wx.

The alert occurred at 04:53 PM on Aug 30 2013.
The site being monitored is LOT in Chicago, IL.

The site is operating in VCP mode 12.

McHenry County Wx triggered the alert because precipitation exceeded 55 dBZ (VIP level 11).
The maximum detected precipitation level is 65 dBZ (VIP level 13).

McHenry County Wx precipitation sensitivity is set to 50.

The current radar product is Short Range Composite Reflectivity (NCR).

The text description for the maximum detected precipitation level is: "8" to 16"/hr very heavy rain: marble size to golf ball sized hail possible".

Severe Weather Statement 16:50:36.6002963

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN LAKE
AND NORTHERN MCHENRY COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM CDT...

AT 446 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES EAST OF WINTHROP HARBOR TO LAKE VILLA TO
HARVARD...AND MOVING SOUTH AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL AND 70 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE
TREE DAMAGE. WIND DAMAGE IS ALSO LIKELY TO MOBILE HOMES...
ROOFS AND OUTBUILDINGS.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
WAUKEGAN AND ROUND LAKE AROUND 455 PM CDT.
PARK CITY AND BULL VALLEY AROUND 500 PM CDT.
WOODSTOCK AND NORTH CHICAGO AROUND 505 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE ROUND LAKE PARK AND
HAINESVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4250 8780 4249 8779 4239 8780 4235 8782
4232 8782 4231 8797 4230 8867 4242 8871
4249 8871 4250 8869 4250 8798
TIME...MOT...LOC 2150Z 338DEG 26KT 4247 8767 4237 8808
4241 8865

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...70MPH

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16:44:05.5964255

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN COOK COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
NORTHEASTERN DE KALB COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
NORTHERN DUPAGE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
NORTHERN KANE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
SOUTHERN MCHENRY COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 545 PM CDT

* AT 438 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES EAST OF KENOSHA TO FOX LAKE TO HARVARD...AND
MOVING SOUTH AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL AND 70 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE
TREE DAMAGE. WIND DAMAGE IS ALSO LIKELY TO MOBILE HOMES...
ROOFS AND OUTBUILDINGS.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
PRAIRIE GROVE AND MARENGO AROUND 450 PM CDT.
WAUCONDA AND OAKWOOD HILLS AROUND 455 PM CDT.
TOWER LAKES AND NORTH CHICAGO AROUND 500 PM CDT.
VERNON HILLS AND LAKE ZURICH AROUND 505 PM CDT.
LONG GROVE AND LINCOLNSHIRE AROUND 510 PM CDT.
WEST DUNDEE AND SLEEPY HOLLOW AROUND 515 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE ROUND LAKE PARK...UNION...
CRYSTAL LAKE...LAKE BARRINGTON...FOX RIVER VALLEY GARDENS...CARY...
NORTH BARRINGTON...METTAWA...LAKE BLUFF AND INDIAN CREEK.

THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF CHICAGO.

OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED...
ELGIN COMMUNITY COLLEGE...GREAT LAKES NAVAL TRAINING CENTER...HARPER
COLLEGE...LAKE COUNTY IL FAIRGROUNDS...LAKE FOREST COLLEGE...MCHENRY
COUNTY COLLEGE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4233 8781 4227 8782 4222 8780 4211 8772
4208 8767 4205 8766 4194 8806 4185 8859
4231 8871 4231 8870 4233 8816 4235 8782
TIME...MOT...LOC 2143Z 353DEG 30KT 4252 8768 4237 8816
4231 8862

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...70MPH

Severe Weather Statement 16:35:04.5910696

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN LAKE
AND NORTHERN MCHENRY COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM CDT...

AT 429 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM KENOSHA TO SILVER LAKE TO 5 MILES NORTH OF SHARON...
AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL AND 70 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE
TREE DAMAGE. WIND DAMAGE IS ALSO LIKELY TO MOBILE HOMES...
ROOFS AND OUTBUILDINGS.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
LAKE CATHERINE AND CHANNEL LAKE AROUND 440 PM CDT.
WINTHROP HARBOR AND RICHMOND AROUND 445 PM CDT.
ZION AND WADSWORTH AROUND 450 PM CDT.
VENETIAN VILLAGE AND PISTAKEE HIGHLANDS AROUND 455 PM CDT.
WONDER LAKE AND THIRD LAKE AROUND 500 PM CDT.
WAUKEGAN AND ROUND LAKE AROUND 505 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE OLD MILL CREEK...FOX LAKE
HILLS...ROUND LAKE HEIGHTS...ROUND LAKE BEACH...HAINESVILLE AND ROUND
LAKE PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4250 8780 4249 8779 4239 8780 4235 8782
4232 8782 4231 8797 4230 8867 4242 8871
4249 8871 4250 8869 4250 8798
TIME...MOT...LOC 2134Z 332DEG 23KT 4257 8773 4252 8815
4255 8871

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...70MPH

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16:16:59.5803281

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
NORTHERN MCHENRY COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 515 PM CDT

* AT 412 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES NORTH OF KENOSHA TO 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF
SILVER LAKE TO 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF CLINTON...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND 70 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE
TREE DAMAGE. WIND DAMAGE IS ALSO LIKELY TO MOBILE HOMES...
ROOFS AND OUTBUILDINGS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ANTIOCH...WINTHROP HARBOR...ZION...LAKE VILLA...FOX LAKE...BEACH
PARK...VENETIAN VILLAGE...PISTAKEE HIGHLANDS...HARVARD...LONG
LAKE...GURNEE...WONDER LAKE...WAUKEGAN...GRAYSLAKE...GAGES LAKE...
ROUND LAKE...PARK CITY...MCHENRY...WOODSTOCK AND LAKE CATHERINE.

OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED...
CHAIN O LAKES STATE PARK...COLLEGE OF LAKE COUNTY...IL BEACH STATE
PARK...LAKE COUNTY FIELDERS BASEBALL...LAKE COUNTY IL FAIRGROUNDS...
MCHENRY COUNTY FAIRGROUNDS...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4250 8780 4249 8779 4239 8780 4235 8782
4232 8782 4231 8797 4230 8867 4242 8871
4249 8871 4250 8869 4250 8798
TIME...MOT...LOC 2116Z 332DEG 23KT 4267 8780 4262 8822
4265 8878

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...70MPH

Watch County Notification 14:07:53.5036426

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
504 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN ILLINOIS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 14 COUNTIES

IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS

BOONE DE KALB LA SALLE
LEE OGLE WINNEBAGO

IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS

COOK DUPAGE GRUNDY
KANE KENDALL LAKE IL
MCHENRY WILL

IN INDIANA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 2 COUNTIES

IN NORTHWEST INDIANA

LAKE IN PORTER

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...AURORA...BELVIDERE...CHICAGO...
DEKALB...DIXON...GARY...JOLIET...MORRIS...OREGON...OSWEGO...
OTTAWA...ROCKFORD...VALPARAISO...WAUKEGAN...
WHEATON AND WOODSTOCK.

Special Weather Statement 12:39:08.4509252

HOT AND HUMID...WITH SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY...

TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN TO NEAR OR A BIT ABOVE 90 DEGREES ACROSS
THE AREA AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON. COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
70S...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL TOP OUT AT BETWEEN 100 AND 105
DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES.
HOT WEATHER SAFETY PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN FOR ANYONE SPENDING
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF TIME OUTDOORS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

THE HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING
SOUTHWARD WILL LIKELY SET THE STAGE FOR A BROKEN LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MID TO LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. STRONG
INSTABILITY COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW OF THE MOST INTENSE STORMS TO
BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL...AS
WELL AS FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS. BE ALERT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER LATER
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

Mesoscale Discussion 12:25:32.4428468

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN WI...NRN IL...CENTRAL/SRN
LM...CENTRAL/SRN LOWER MI.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 301724Z - 301930Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...CONVECTION IS FCST TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY
GRADUALLY THROUGH AT LEAST MID-AFTN...ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT.
ASSOCIATED SVR POTENTIAL IS INCREASING AS FOREGOING/RICHLY MOIST
AIR MASS DESTABILIZES AND CINH WEAKENS. DAMAGING GUSTS AND LARGE
HAIL ARE EXPECTED FROM MOST INTENSE CELLS. INSTABILITY/CONVECTIVE
TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR PSBL WW.

DISCUSSION...BKN BAND OF TSTMS IS MOVING SEWD ABOUT 30 KT ACROSS
PORTIONS E-CENTRAL/NERN LOWER MI. SVR POTENTIAL WITH THIS ACTIVITY
APPEARS MRGL AND CONFINED IN AREA...GIVEN RECENT TENDENCY FOR MORE
RAGGED REFLECTIVITY PRESENTATION AND WARMING IR CLOUD TOPS.
STILL...WITH MODIFIED RAOBS AND FCST SOUNDINGS SHOWING 500-1000 J/KG
MLCAPE AND 30-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR OVER PARTS OF ERN LOWER MI ON
EITHER SIDE OF SAGINAW BAY...BRIEF FLARE-UP OF AN EMBEDDED CELL OR
TWO MAY YIELD ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS
ACTIVITY EXTENDS FROM HTL AREA WNWWD ACROSS NWRN LOWER MI AND NRN LM
TO DOOR PENINSULA OF WI...AND SHOULD BE QUASISTATIONARY PRIOR TO
COLD FROPA. COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED AT 17Z FROM ERN UPPER MI SWWD
NEAR GRB-VOK-CAV LINE. FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING SEWD ABOUT 15
KT. PREFRONTAL TROUGH/WIND-SHIFT WAS EVIDENT NEAR MTW-ALO
LINE...MOVING SEWD ROUGHLY APACE WITH COLD FRONT.

MORE SUSTAINED/CONCENTRATED SVR POTENTIAL IS EVIDENT FROM CENTRAL
LOWER MI WWD ACROSS LM INTO SRN WI...SHIFTING SEWD OVER SRN LOWER
MI...SRN LM AND NRN IL. VIS IMAGERY INDICATES CONVECTION
DEEPENING...INCLUDING A FEW YOUNG CB...ALONG WI/LM SEGMENT OF
PREFRONTAL TROUGH. LARGER LAPSE RATES ALOFT...RICH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND MORE SUSTAINED INSOLATION WILL LEAD TO FAVORABLE
DESTABILIZATION IN WARM SECTOR. SFC DEW POINTS COMMONLY IN 70S OVER
WI/IL/LM AND MID-UPPER 60S OVER LOWER MI WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE
IN 2500-3500 J/KG OVER WI/IL AND 1500-3000 J/KG OVER REST OF
DISCUSSION AREA. RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP SHEAR WILL REMAIN ONE
LIMITING FACTOR FOR OVERALL ORGANIZATION...WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR
MAGNITUDES REMAINING AOB 30 KT MOST AREAS.

..EDWARDS/GOSS.. 08/30/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...
ARX...

LAT...LON 42979075 43848861 44128587 44038441 44058299 44028280
43758263 43458254 43108248 42748251 42618254 42628281
42528286 42458380 42298533 42098776 42078941 42289010
42979075

Special Weather Statement 04:47:52.1709928

...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY...

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 90S TODAY. THE
COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH MODERATE TO HIGH
HUMIDITY LEVELS COULD RESULT IN HEAT INDICES REACHING OR EXCEEDING
100 DEGREES.

Thursday, August 29, 2013

Special Weather Statement 04:11:31.1494008

...PATCHY DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...

SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG IS LIKELY THIS MORNING...POSSIBLY RESULTING
IN GREATLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN A HALF MILE IN SOME
ISOLATED LOCATIONS. DUE TO THE VERY LOCALIZED NATURE OF ANY
FOG...MOTORISTS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO ENCOUNTER SUDDEN REDUCTIONS
IN VISIBILITY.

Wednesday, August 28, 2013

Test Message 11:00:24.3922776

THIS IS THE WEEKLY TEST OF THE WXWARN1 ALERT SYSTEM THIS IS ONLY A TEST

Tuesday, August 27, 2013

Mesoscale Discussion 20:29:44.7304616

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LWR MI AND ADJACENT NRN IND...NW OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 498...

VALID 280129Z - 280230Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 498
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...WW 498 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 02Z.

DISCUSSION...MODELS DO STILL SUGGEST THAT SOME STRENGTHENING OF
RELATIVELY MODEST WESTERLY 850 MB FLOW FIELDS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THIS EVENING...ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SOUTHEASTWARD
DEVELOPING FRONTAL WAVE. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE GENERAL WEAKNESS OF
THE BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY EVIDENT IN LATEST OBJECTIVE
ANALYSES...AND THE ONSET OF DIURNAL SURFACE COOLING...THIS DOES NOT
SEEM LIKELY TO BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A SUBSTANTIVE INCREASE IN
SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PROBABLY WILL PERSIST
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND MICHIGAN ANOTHER
COUPLE OF HOURS...BEFORE BECOMING FOCUSED IN STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO BY THE 04-06Z TIME FRAME.
HOWEVER...THE NEED FOR A NEW SEVERE WEATHER WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED.

..KERR.. 08/28/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...LOT...MKX...ARX...

LAT...LON 43908984 43468766 43358636 43198485 42938338 42818261
42688198 41988076 41048124 40888350 41378470 41798691
41978791 43458956 43908984

Monday, August 26, 2013

Special Weather Statement 21:49:57.7781103

...LATE SEASON HEAT CONTINUES TUESDAY...

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM WELL INTO THE 90S TUESDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF THE UNUSUALLY HOT TEMPERATURES SO LATE IN THE
SUMMER ALONG WITH MODERATE HUMIDITY LEVELS COULD RESULT IN HEAT
INDICES REACHING OR EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES.

Special Weather Statement 14:39:00.5221259

...LATE SEASON HEAT CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY...

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S THIS
AFTERNOON...AND ARE FORECAST TO WARM WELL INTO THE 90S TUESDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF THE UNUSUALLY HOT TEMPERATURES SO LATE IN THE SUMMER
ALONG WITH MODERATE HUMIDITY LEVELS COULD RESULT IN HEAT INDICES
REACHING OR EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES...PARTICULARLY ON TUESDAY.

Special Weather Statement 14:38:12.5216508

...LATE SEASON HEAT EXPECTED CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY...

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S THIS
AFTERNOON...AND ARE FORECAST TO WARM WELL INTO THE 90S TUESDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF THE UNUSUALLY HOT TEMPERATURES SO LATE IN THE SUMMER
ALONG WITH MODERATE HUMIDITY LEVELS COULD RESULT IN HEAT INDICES
REACHING OR EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES...PARTICULARLY ON TUESDAY.

Special Weather Statement 06:30:37.2320262

...LATE SEASON HEAT EXPECTED TODAY AND TUESDAY...

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE 90S BOTH TODAY AND
TUESDAY...WITH MID 90S EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF
THE UNUSUALLY HOT TEMPERATURES SO LATE IN THE SUMMER ALONG WITH
MODERATE HUMIDITY LEVELS COULD RESULT IN HEAT INDICES REACHING OR
EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES...PARTICULARLY ON TUESDAY.

Sunday, August 25, 2013

Special Weather Statement 21:34:20.7688339

...LATE SEASON HEAT EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE 90S BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...POSSIBLY WARMING WELL INTO THE 90S TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE COMBINATION OF THE UNUSUALLY HOT TEMPERATURES SO LATE IN THE
SUMMER ALONG WITH MODERATE HUMIDITY LEVELS COULD RESULT IN HEAT
INDICES REACHING OR EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES...PARTICULARLY ON
TUESDAY.

Saturday, August 24, 2013

Special Weather Statement 06:21:14.2264526

...LATE SEASON HEAT EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE 90S MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...POSSIBLY REACHING WELL INTO THE 90S ON TUESDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF THE UNUSUALLY HOT TEMPERATURES SO LATE IN THE
SUMMER ALONG WITH MODERATE HUMIDITY LEVELS COULD RESULT IN HEAT
INDICES REACHING OR EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES...PARTICULARLY ON
TUESDAY.

Wednesday, August 21, 2013

Flood Potential Outlook 16:23:42.5843178

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.

...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
VALID PERIOD: 8/26/2013 - 11/24/2013

: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
: CHANCES OF EXCEEDING
: FLOOD CATEGORIES
: AS A PERCENTAGE (%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---
:HART DITCH
DYER 12.0 13.0 14.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:THORN CREEK
THORNTON 10.0 15.0 16.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:LITTLE CALUMET RIVER
MUNSTER 12.0 14.0 17.0 : 18 32 8 9 <5 <5
SOUTH HOLLAND 16.5 18.0 20.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:KANKAKEE RIVER
DUNNS BRIDGE 10.0 12.0 13.0 : 6 6 <5 <5 <5 <5
KOUTS 11.0 13.0 14.0 : 6 6 <5 <5 <5 <5
SHELBY 9.0 11.0 12.5 : 18 19 8 9 <5 <5
MOMENCE 5.0 6.5 9.0 : <5 6 <5 <5 <5 <5
:IROQUOIS RIVER
RENSSELAER 12.0 14.0 15.0 : <5 6 <5 <5 <5 <5
FORESMAN 18.0 22.0 24.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
IROQUOIS 18.0 24.0 25.0 : 8 9 <5 <5 <5 <5
:SUGAR CREEK
MILFORD 18.0 22.0 26.0 : <5 13 <5 <5 <5 <5
:IROQUOIS RIVER
CHEBANSE 16.0 18.0 20.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:KANKAKEE RIVER
WILMINGTON 6.5 8.0 10.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:DES PLAINES RIVER
RUSSELL 7.0 9.0 10.0 : 21 19 <5 <5 <5 <5
GURNEE 7.0 9.0 11.0 : <5 6 <5 <5 <5 <5
LINCOLNSHIRE 12.5 14.0 15.5 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
DES PLAINES 5.0 8.0 9.0 : <5 8 <5 <5 <5 <5
RIVERSIDE 7.0 8.0 9.0 : 9 14 8 9 6 6
LEMONT 10.0 11.0 12.0 : 9 14 9 13 8 11
:W BR DU PAGE RIVER
WARRENVILLE 11.5 14.5 17.5 : 13 13 <5 <5 <5 <5
:EAST BRANCH DU PAGE RIVER
BOLINGBROOK 19.5 21.0 23.0 : 24 27 6 8 <5 <5
:DU PAGE RIVER
SHOREWOOD 6.5 8.0 10.0 : 8 9 <5 <5 <5 <5
:MAZON RIVER
COAL CITY 12.0 14.0 17.0 : <5 6 <5 <5 <5 <5
:FOX RIVER
ALGONQUIN TAILWAT 9.5 10.5 12.0 : 14 13 8 9 <5 6
MONTGOMERY 13.0 14.0 15.0 : 13 14 6 8 <5 <5
DAYTON 12.0 14.0 24.0 : 13 13 <5 9 <5 <5
:VERMILION RIVER
PONTIAC 14.0 15.0 18.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
LEONORE 16.0 21.0 26.0 : 6 8 <5 <5 <5 <5
:PECATONICA RIVER
SHIRLAND 12.0 14.0 15.5 : 16 9 <5 6 <5 <5
:ROCK RIVER
ROCKTON 10.0 11.0 14.0 : 6 8 6 8 <5 <5
LATHAM PARK 10.0 11.0 14.0 : 6 8 6 <5 <5 <5
ROCKFORD 9.0 10.0 11.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:KISHWAUKEE RIVER
BELVIDERE 9.0 10.0 12.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:SOUTH BRANCH KISHWAUKEE RIVER
DE KALB 10.0 11.0 12.5 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:KISHWAUKEE RIVER
PERRYVILLE 12.0 18.0 22.0 : <5 9 <5 <5 <5 <5
:ROCK RIVER
BYRON 13.0 14.0 16.0 : 8 6 <5 <5 <5 <5
DIXON 16.0 18.0 20.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:NORTH BRANCH CHICAGO RIVER
CHICAGO ALBANY AV 7.0 7.5 8.0 : <5 6 <5 <5 <5 <5
:ILLINOIS RIVER
MORRIS 16.0 18.0 22.0 : 8 11 <5 9 <5 <5
OTTAWA 463.0 466.0 469.0 : 8 11 <5 6 <5 <5
LA SALLE 20.0 27.0 31.0 : 11 21 <5 8 <5 <5

LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.

...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID PERIOD: 8/26/2013 - 11/24/2013
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:HART DITCH
DYER 2.5 2.7 3.1 4.3 5.4 6.8 7.5
:THORN CREEK
THORNTON 3.3 3.4 3.7 4.8 6.6 8.1 10.1
:LITTLE CALUMET RIVER
MUNSTER 7.5 7.6 8.8 10.3 11.9 13.9 15.4
SOUTH HOLLAND 7.0 7.3 8.1 9.4 11.3 12.3 14.8
:KANKAKEE RIVER
DUNNS BRIDGE 3.3 3.9 4.4 6.4 7.5 9.7 10.3
KOUTS 4.2 4.8 5.4 7.4 8.6 10.9 11.4
SHELBY 4.8 5.1 5.8 7.4 8.4 10.8 11.8
MOMENCE 1.6 1.7 1.9 2.6 3.1 3.9 5.6
:IROQUOIS RIVER
RENSSELAER 4.2 4.6 5.4 7.2 9.3 10.9 14.0
FORESMAN 5.7 6.5 8.1 10.6 13.2 14.6 17.0
IROQUOIS 4.9 5.5 7.3 9.8 13.0 17.2 20.4
:SUGAR CREEK
MILFORD 5.0 5.4 7.0 8.3 11.1 16.7 18.5
:IROQUOIS RIVER
CHEBANSE 3.1 3.2 4.3 5.2 6.7 10.4 13.1
:KANKAKEE RIVER
WILMINGTON 1.2 1.2 1.6 2.0 2.7 4.0 5.7
:DES PLAINES RIVER
RUSSELL 3.6 3.9 4.5 5.5 6.8 7.7 8.1
GURNEE 1.7 1.8 2.2 3.1 4.2 5.8 6.7
LINCOLNSHIRE 6.5 6.6 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.3 11.4
DES PLAINES 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.7 2.1 3.9 5.0
RIVERSIDE 2.5 2.7 3.2 4.3 5.4 7.4 9.6
LEMONT 5.8 6.0 6.5 7.7 8.8 11.3 13.6
:W BR DU PAGE RIVER
WARRENVILLE 8.3 8.5 9.0 9.9 10.6 11.8 12.7
:EAST BRANCH DU PAGE RIVER
BOLINGBROOK 15.5 16.0 16.8 18.4 19.6 21.0 22.6
:DU PAGE RIVER
SHOREWOOD 3.0 3.1 3.6 4.6 5.6 6.4 8.1
:MAZON RIVER
COAL CITY 1.8 1.8 2.0 4.5 6.4 9.2 12.8
:FOX RIVER
ALGONQUIN TAILWAT 5.7 5.9 6.3 7.5 8.4 10.1 11.9
MONTGOMERY 11.4 11.4 11.5 12.0 12.5 13.6 14.6
DAYTON 6.0 6.0 6.5 8.0 9.2 13.1 15.2
:VERMILION RIVER
PONTIAC 2.9 3.0 3.7 4.5 5.2 7.1 9.9
LEONORE 3.8 3.9 4.6 6.1 8.0 11.2 17.9
:PECATONICA RIVER
SHIRLAND 5.3 5.5 6.3 8.0 10.9 13.2 14.2
:ROCK RIVER
ROCKTON 3.5 3.8 4.2 5.4 7.4 9.5 12.4
LATHAM PARK 4.2 4.5 4.8 5.7 7.4 9.2 11.7
ROCKFORD 2.6 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.5 4.0 5.5
:KISHWAUKEE RIVER
BELVIDERE 1.6 1.8 2.3 3.3 4.8 6.2 8.1
:SOUTH BRANCH KISHWAUKEE RIVER
DE KALB 3.2 3.4 3.6 4.7 6.2 7.1 7.8
:KISHWAUKEE RIVER
PERRYVILLE 5.8 5.9 6.3 7.7 8.7 10.4 12.0
:ROCK RIVER
BYRON 5.5 5.9 6.3 7.5 9.2 11.9 14.0
DIXON 8.2 8.4 8.7 9.6 10.9 13.3 15.3
:NORTH BRANCH CHICAGO RIVER
CHICAGO ALBANY AV 3.1 3.3 3.6 4.2 5.2 6.0 7.0
:ILLINOIS RIVER
MORRIS 5.1 5.2 5.6 7.0 8.9 14.6 18.0
OTTAWA 458.5 458.5 458.6 459.0 459.3 461.5 466.5
LA SALLE 11.1 11.3 11.8 13.3 15.8 20.5 26.7

IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE
VALID TIME PERIOD.

...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID PERIOD: 8/26/2013 - 11/24/2013
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:HART DITCH
DYER 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7
:THORN CREEK
THORNTON 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7
:LITTLE CALUMET RIVER
MUNSTER 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.5 4.5 4.4
SOUTH HOLLAND 5.1 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.9 4.9 4.9
:KANKAKEE RIVER
DUNNS BRIDGE 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.8
KOUTS 4.1 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.7
SHELBY 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.1
MOMENCE 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3
:IROQUOIS RIVER
RENSSELAER 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.0
FORESMAN 5.0 4.9 4.8 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.3
IROQUOIS 4.3 4.3 4.1 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.6
:SUGAR CREEK
MILFORD 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5
:IROQUOIS RIVER
CHEBANSE 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.1
:KANKAKEE RIVER
WILMINGTON 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9
:DES PLAINES RIVER
RUSSELL 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9
GURNEE 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1
LINCOLNSHIRE 6.0 5.9 5.9 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.7
DES PLAINES 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7
RIVERSIDE 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.3
LEMONT 5.1 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.4
:W BR DU PAGE RIVER
WARRENVILLE 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0
:EAST BRANCH DU PAGE RIVER
BOLINGBROOK 14.3 14.3 14.3 14.3 14.3 14.3 14.3
:DU PAGE RIVER
SHOREWOOD 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
:MAZON RIVER
COAL CITY 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
:FOX RIVER
ALGONQUIN TAILWAT 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.3
MONTGOMERY 11.1 11.1 11.0 11.0 11.0 10.9 10.9
DAYTON 5.6 5.4 5.3 5.1 5.1 5.0 5.0
:VERMILION RIVER
PONTIAC 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.5
LEONORE 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.2
:PECATONICA RIVER
SHIRLAND 4.7 4.6 4.3 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.8
:ROCK RIVER
ROCKTON 3.2 3.2 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.7
LATHAM PARK 4.1 4.0 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.5
ROCKFORD 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2
:KISHWAUKEE RIVER
BELVIDERE 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1
:SOUTH BRANCH KISHWAUKEE RIVER
DE KALB 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.7
:KISHWAUKEE RIVER
PERRYVILLE 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.4
:ROCK RIVER
BYRON 5.5 5.4 5.2 5.0 4.9 4.9 4.8
DIXON 8.1 8.0 7.8 7.7 7.6 7.5 7.4
:NORTH BRANCH CHICAGO RIVER
CHICAGO ALBANY AV 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9
:ILLINOIS RIVER
MORRIS 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6
OTTAWA 458.5 458.5 458.5 458.5 458.5 458.5 458.5
LA SALLE 10.8 10.8 10.7 10.6 10.6 10.6 10.6

THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A RANGE OF
PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING
DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART
OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE'S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION
SERVICE.

VISIT OUR WEB SITE WEATHER.GOV/LOT FOR MORE WEATHER AND WATER
INFORMATION.

THESE MONTHLY OUTLOOKS ARE TYPICALLY ISSUED DURING THE THIRD OR
FOURTH WEEK OF THE MONTH.

Test Message 11:00:15.3921885

THIS IS THE WEEKLY TEST OF THE WXWARN1 ALERT SYSTEM THIS IS ONLY A TEST

Tuesday, August 20, 2013

Air Quality Message 11:30:46.4103153

AEUS73 KLOT 201630
AQALOT

AIR QUALITY ALERT MESSAGE
ILLINOIS ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
INDIANA DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1130 AM CDT TUE AUG 20 2013

ILZ005-006-012>014-020>022-211630-
MCHENRY-LAKE IL-KANE-DUPAGE-COOK-KENDALL-GRUNDY-WILL-
1130 AM CDT TUE AUG 20 2013

...AIR QUALITY ALERT IS NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT CDT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

THE ILLINOIS ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY HAS DETERMINED THAT
AN AIR POLLUTION ACTION DAY WILL BE DECLARED FOR TODAY...TUESDAY
AUGUST 20TH AND WEDNESDAY AUGUST 21ST...FOR THE GREATER CHICAGO
METROPOLITAN AREA INCLUDING THE COUNTIES OF...

COOK... DUPAGE... KANE... KENDALL... GRUNDY... LAKE... MCHENRY
AND WILL.

AN AIR POLLUTION ACTION DAY IS DECLARED WHEN WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE SUCH THAT WIDESPREAD OZONE AND OR PARTICULATE LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AT OR ABOVE THE UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS
CATEGORY OF THE AIR QUALITY INDEX. ACTIVE CHILDREN AND ADULTS AND
ESPECIALLY PEOPLE WITH PULMONARY OR RESPIRATORY DISEASE SUCH AS
ASTHMA SHOULD LIMIT PROLONGED OUTDOOR ACTIVITY.

PARTICIPANTS IN THE...PARTNERS FOR CLEAN AIR PROGRAM...ARE
REQUESTED TO INITIATE THEIR ACTIVITIES. AREA RESIDENTS ARE ALSO
URGED TO REDUCE POLLUTION LEVELS. AQI FORECASTS AND TIPS ON HOW
YOU CAN REDUCE YOUR EMISSIONS CAN BE FOUND AT WWW.CLEANTHEAIR.ORG

INFORMATION AND AQI LEVELS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT
WWW.EPA.STATE.IL.US AND AT WWW.AIRNOW.GOV

MEDIA CONTACT...217 785 8911

$$

INZ001-002-211630-
LAKE IN-PORTER-
1130 AM CDT TUE AUG 20 2013

...AIR QUALITY ALERT IS NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT CDT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

AN AIR QUALITY ACTION DAY HAS BEEN FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST
INDIANA FOR TODAY...TUESDAY AUGUST 20TH AND WEDNESDAY AUGUST
21ST...FOR OZONE INCLUDING THE COUNTIES OF...

LAKE AND PORTER.

OZONE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE ORANGE OR UNHEALTHY FOR
SENSITIVE GROUPS RANGE. ACTIVE CHILDREN AND ADULTS...AND PEOPLE
WITH RESPIRATORY DISEASE SUCH AS ASTHMA SHOULD LIMIT PROLONGED
OUTDOOR EXERTION.

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT THE IDEM SMOG WATCH WEBSITE AT
WWW.IN.GOV/APPS/IDEM/SMOG/ OR THE EPA AIRNOW WEB SITE AT
WWW.AIRNOW.GOV AND CLICK ON INDIANA.

$$

Air Quality Message 04:14:54.1514106

AEUS73 KLOT 200908
AQALOT

AIR QUALITY ALERT MESSAGE
ILLINOIS ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
INDIANA DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
401 AM CDT TUE AUG 20 2013

ILZ005-006-012>014-020>022-210500-
MCHENRY-LAKE IL-KANE-DUPAGE-COOK-KENDALL-GRUNDY-WILL-
408 AM CDT TUE AUG 20 2013

...AIR QUALITY ALERT IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO
MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT...

THE ILLINOIS ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY HAS DETERMINED THAT
AN AIR POLLUTION ACTION DAY WILL BE DECLARED FOR TODAY...TUESDAY
AUGUST 20TH...FOR THE GREATER CHICAGO METROPOLITAN AREA.

AN AIR POLLUTION ACTION DAY IS DECLARED WHEN WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE SUCH THAT WIDESPREAD OZONE AND OR PARTICULATE LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AT OR ABOVE THE UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS
CATEGORY OF THE AIR QUALITY INDEX. ACTIVE CHILDREN AND ADULTS AND
ESPECIALLY PEOPLE WITH PULMONARY OR RESPIRATORY DISEASE SUCH AS
ASTHMA SHOULD LIMIT PROLONGED OUTDOOR ACTIVITY.

PARTICIPANTS IN THE...PARTNERS FOR CLEAN AIR PROGRAM...ARE
REQUESTED TO INITIATE THEIR ACTIVITIES. AREA RESIDENTS ARE ALSO
URGED TO REDUCE POLLUTION LEVELS. AQI FORECASTS AND TIPS ON HOW
YOU CAN REDUCE YOUR EMISSIONS CAN BE FOUND AT WWW.CLEANTHEAIR.ORG

THIS IS THE FIRST AIR POLLUTION ACTION DAY IN ILLINOIS FOR 2013.

INFORMATION AND AQI LEVELS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT
WWW.EPA.STATE.IL.US AND AT WWW.AIRNOW.GOV

MEDIA CONTACT...217 299 6057

$$

INZ001-002-210500-
LAKE IN-PORTER-
408 AM CDT TUE AUG 20 2013

...AIR QUALITY ALERT IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT CDT
TUESDAY NIGHT...

AN AIR QUALITY ACTION DAY HAS BEEN FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST INDIANA
FOR TUESDAY AUGUST 20 2013 FOR OZONE INCLUDING THE COUNTIES OF...

LAKE AND PORTER.

OZONE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE ORANGE OR UNHEALTHY FOR
SENSITIVE GROUPS RANGE. ACTIVE CHILDREN AND ADULTS...AND PEOPLE
WITH RESPIRATORY DISEASE SUCH AS ASTHMA SHOULD LIMIT PROLONGED
OUTDOOR EXERTION.

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT THE IDEM SMOG WATCH WEBSITE AT
WWW.IN.GOV/APPS/IDEM/SMOG/ OR THE EPA AIRNOW WEB SITE AT
WWW.AIRNOW.GOV AND CLICK ON INDIANA.

$$

Monday, August 19, 2013

Air Quality Message 11:47:07.4200273

AEUS73 KLOT 191646
AQALOT

AIR QUALITY ALERT MESSAGE
ILLINOIS ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
INDIANA DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1146 AM CDT MON AUG 19 2013

ILZ005-006-012>014-020>022-201700-
MCHENRY-LAKE IL-KANE-DUPAGE-COOK-KENDALL-GRUNDY-WILL-
1146 AM CDT MON AUG 19 2013

...AIR QUALITY ALERT IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT CDT
TUESDAY NIGHT...

THE ILLINOIS ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY HAS DETERMINED THAT
AN AIR POLLUTION ACTION DAY WILL BE DECLARED FOR TUESDAY AUGUST
20TH FOR THE GREATER CHICAGO METROPOLITAN AREA INCLUDING THE
COUNTIES OF...

COOK... DUPAGE... KANE... KENDALL... GRUNDY... LAKE... MCHENRY AND
WILL.

AN AIR POLLUTION ACTION DAY IS DECLARED WHEN WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE SUCH THAT WIDESPREAD OZONE AND OR PARTICULATE LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AT OR ABOVE THE UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS
CATEGORY OF THE AIR QUALITY INDEX. ACTIVE CHILDREN AND ADULTS AND
ESPECIALLY PEOPLE WITH PULMONARY OR RESPIRATORY DISEASE SUCH AS
ASTHMA SHOULD LIMIT PROLONGED OUTDOOR ACTIVITY.

PARTICIPANTS IN THE...PARTNERS FOR CLEAN AIR PROGRAM...ARE
REQUESTED TO INITIATE THEIR ACTIVITIES. AREA RESIDENTS ARE ALSO
URGED TO REDUCE POLLUTION LEVELS. AQI FORECASTS AND TIPS ON HOW
YOU CAN REDUCE YOUR EMISSIONS CAN BE FOUND AT WWW.CLEANTHEAIR.ORG

INFORMATION AND AQI LEVELS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT
WWW.EPA.STATE.IL.US AND AT WWW.AIRNOW.GOV

MEDIA CONTACT...217 785 8911

$$

INZ001-002-201700-
LAKE IN-PORTER-
1146 AM CDT MON AUG 19 2013

...AIR QUALITY ALERT IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT CDT
TUESDAY NIGHT...

AN AIR QUALITY ACTION DAY HAS BEEN FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST INDIANA
FOR TUESDAY AUGUST 20 2013 FOR OZONE INCLUDING THE COUNTIES OF...

LAKE AND PORTER.

OZONE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE ORANGE OR UNHEALTHY FOR
SENSITIVE GROUPS RANGE. ACTIVE CHILDREN AND ADULTS...AND PEOPLE
WITH RESPIRATORY DISEASE SUCH AS ASTHMA SHOULD LIMIT PROLONGED
OUTDOOR EXERTION.

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT THE IDEM SMOG WATCH WEBSITE AT
WWW.IN.GOV/APPS/IDEM/SMOG/ OR THE EPA AIRNOW WEB SITE AT
WWW.AIRNOW.GOV AND CLICK ON INDIANA.

$$

Air Quality Message 11:27:30.4083750

AEUS73 KLOT 191627
AQALOT

AIR QUALITY ALERT MESSAGE
ILLINOIS ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1127 AM CDT MON AUG 19 2013

ILZ005-006-012>014-020>022-201630-
MCHENRY-LAKE IL-KANE-DUPAGE-COOK-KENDALL-GRUNDY-WILL-
1127 AM CDT MON AUG 19 2013

...AIR QUALITY ALERT IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT CDT
TUESDAY NIGHT...

THE ILLINOIS ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY HAS DETERMINED THAT
AN AIR POLLUTION ACTION DAY WILL BE DECLARED FOR TUESDAY AUGUST
20TH FOR THE GREATER CHICAGO METROPOLITAN AREA INCLUDING THE
COUNTIES OF...

COOK... DUPAGE... KANE... KENDALL... GRUNDY... LAKE... MCHENRY AND
WILL.

AN AIR POLLUTION ACTION DAY IS DECLARED WHEN WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE SUCH THAT WIDESPREAD OZONE AND OR PARTICULATE LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AT OR ABOVE THE UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS
CATEGORY OF THE AIR QUALITY INDEX. ACTIVE CHILDREN AND ADULTS AND
ESPECIALLY PEOPLE WITH PULMONARY OR RESPIRATORY DISEASE SUCH AS
ASTHMA SHOULD LIMIT PROLONGED OUTDOOR ACTIVITY.

PARTICIPANTS IN THE...PARTNERS FOR CLEAN AIR PROGRAM...ARE
REQUESTED TO INITIATE THEIR ACTIVITIES. AREA RESIDENTS ARE ALSO
URGED TO REDUCE POLLUTION LEVELS. AQI FORECASTS AND TIPS ON HOW
YOU CAN REDUCE YOUR EMISSIONS CAN BE FOUND AT WWW.CLEANTHEAIR.ORG

INFORMATION AND AQI LEVELS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT
WWW.EPA.STATE.IL.US AND AT WWW.AIRNOW.GOV

MEDIA CONTACT...217 785 8911

$$

Wednesday, August 14, 2013

Test Message 11:00:50.3925350

THIS IS THE WEEKLY TEST OF THE WXWARN1 ALERT SYSTEM THIS IS ONLY A TEST

Wednesday, August 7, 2013

Mesoscale Discussion 13:47:41.4916439

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND NERN IL/NRN IND/PART OF SRN LOWER
MI/FAR NWRN OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 071846Z - 072045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND AFFECT PARTS OF CENTRAL
TO NERN IL...FAR SRN LAKE MICHIGAN...FAR NRN IND...AND POTENTIALLY
THROUGH PORTION OF SRN LOWER MI AND NWRN OH THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW
STRONGER STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH SOME BECOMING SEVERE WITH HAIL
AND LOCALLY STRONG WINDS. CURRENT FORECAST THINKING EXPECTS THE
COVERAGE OF THE STRONGER/SVR THREAT TO REMAIN TOO LOW TO WARRANT THE
ISSUANCE OF A WATCH.

DISCUSSION...EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSES SHOWED A COLD FRONT
CONTINUING TO ADVANCE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND AT 18Z
THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDED SWWD THROUGH NRN LAKE HURON TO NERN INTO SWRN
LOWER MI...INTO NERN IL /NORTH OF CHICAGO/ AND ACROSS NRN IL.
ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN FAR
NERN IL...THE REST OF THE STORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED SO FAR ACROSS
THE DISCUSSION AREA TEND TO BE INVOF OF A PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT.
MODELS SUGGEST AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSES CONFIRM THAT STRONGER FORCING
FOR ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NEWD AWAY FROM THE WARM
SECTOR...WITH A GRADUAL RISE IN HEIGHTS...WARMING MIDLEVEL
TEMPERATURES AND WEAKENING WLY MIDLEVEL WINDS. WHILE THE TRENDS IN
THESE FACTORS SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF STRONGER TO
SEVERE STORMS...A RESIDUAL MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT AND SUFFICIENT BULK SHEAR SUGGEST SPORADIC
UPSCALE GROWTH WILL BE POSSIBLE. THUS...AN ISOLATED THREAT EXISTS
FOR HAIL AROUND 1 INCH IN DIAMETER AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

..PETERS/KERR.. 08/07/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN...

LAT...LON 40399066 40669060 41008982 41308915 41978794 41998687
41908587 42478462 42238396 41168446 40938523 40738632
40408759 40128901 39958958 40399066

Test Message 11:00:39.3924260

THIS IS THE WEEKLY TEST OF THE WXWARN1 ALERT SYSTEM THIS IS ONLY A TEST

Mesoscale Discussion 07:53:11.2810708

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LWR MI...NRN IL...NRN IND...AND NRN OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 071252Z - 071445Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND STRENGTH
THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING OVER SRN LWR MI AND NEARBY PORTIONS OF
NRN IL...NRN IND...AND NRN OH AS SFC HEATING ERODES NOCTURNAL SFC
STABLE LAYER. A WW MAY BE REQUIRED SHORTLY DUE TO ASSOCIATED THREAT
FOR DMGG WIND AND SVR HAIL.

DISCUSSION...GUST FRONT MARKING THE SRN EDGE OF ELONGATING COLD POOL
LEFT BY OVERNIGHT SQLN IN WI AND CNTRL MI HAS BECOME ORIENTED
ROUGHLY W-E OVER SRN LWR MI...PARALLEL TO SEASONABLY STRONG /30-50
KT/ 700-500 MB FLOW ACROSS REGION. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO
SERVE AS A SOURCE OF LOW-LVL UPLIFT AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY S ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF LWR MI INTO NRN PARTS OF IL...IND...AND OH LATER THIS
MORNING.

WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PRESENT S OF GUST FRONT...SFC
HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN FAIRLY RAPID EROSION OF SFC-BASED NOCTURNAL
STABLE LAYER OVER REGION. UPSTREAM 12Z RAOBS AT DVN AND ILX SHOW
PRESENCE OF DEEP EML THAT...GIVEN SEASONABLY STRONG WLY FLOW ON SRN
FRINGE OF UPR MI VORT MAX...WILL SPREAD RAPIDLY DOWNSTREAM ACROSS
SRN LWR MI AND ADJACENT IND/OH THROUGH MIDDAY. COUPLED WITH FAIRLY
RICH LOW-LVL MOISTURE /PW AOA 1.50 INCHES/ AND 30-35 KT WLY DEEP
SHEAR...SETUP MAY SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF CLUSTERS OF SUSTAINED
STORMS INCLUDING EMBEDDED ROTATING STRUCTURES/LEWPS CAPABLE OF DMGG
WIND AND SVR HAIL.

STORM TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...BUT IT APPEARS THAT A
WW MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

..CORFIDI/BROYLES.. 08/07/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...

LAT...LON 42308818 42378645 42278477 42458357 42578234 41708138
41058184 40668380 40688606 40928822 41618882 42308818

Tuesday, August 6, 2013

Special Weather Statement 06:30:44.2320956

AREAS OF FOG...SOME DENSE...WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS BEFORE FADING GRADUALLY AFTER 800 AM. VISIBILITY UNDER
ONE HALF MILE...AND AT TIMES LOCALLY UNDER ONE QUARTER OF A
MILE...IS LIKELY. IF ENCOUNTERING DENSE FOG WHILE BEHIND THE
WHEEL...SLOW DOWN AND USE YOUR LOW BEAM HEADLIGHTS. THE FOG
LIKELIHOOD INCLUDES IN AND AROUND THE COMMUNITIES OF
ROCKFORD...BELVIDERE...DEKALB...DIXON...OREGON...PERU..AND
WOODSTOCK.

Friday, August 2, 2013

Mesoscale Discussion 14:25:32.5141267

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN IA EWD ACROSS SWRN LOWER MI AND NRN PARTS OF
IL AND IND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 021924Z - 022030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A RISK FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
PERHAPS SOME HAIL. THIS THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED AND A
WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA INDICATE DEEPENING CUMULUS
AND EARLY TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NRN IL...ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
SEWD-MOVING COLD FRONT. HERE...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE
LOW TO MID 80S...AND WHEN COUPLED WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID 60S IS RESULTING IN AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH
MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG. INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED
WITH A LOW-AMPLITUDE PERTURBATION MOVING OUT OF THE MID MO VALLEY
WILL AUGMENT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT TO ENCOURAGE FURTHER STORM
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF A MODESTLY STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD...SOME
POTENTIAL FOR STORM ORGANIZATION/SUSTENANCE WILL EXIST WITH AN
ATTENDANT RISK FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS SOME
HAIL.

..MEAD/GOSS.. 08/02/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN...

LAT...LON 41359184 42119018 42218749 41768501 40958482 40128570
39908821 40149046 40729186 41359184

Radar Scan Zone Alert

This is a severe weather alert from McHenry County Wx.

The alert occurred at 05:45 AM on Aug 02 2013.
The site being monitored is LOT in Chicago, IL.

The site is operating in VCP mode 12.

McHenry County Wx triggered the alert because precipitation exceeded 50 dBZ (VIP level 10).
The maximum detected precipitation level is 50 dBZ (VIP level 10).

McHenry County Wx precipitation sensitivity is set to 50.

The current radar product is Short Range Composite Reflectivity (NCR).

The text description for the maximum detected precipitation level is: "1" to 2"/hr heavy rain: small granular or pea sized hail possible".

Radar Scan Zone Alert

This is a severe weather alert from McHenry County Wx.

The alert occurred at 01:30 AM on Aug 02 2013.
The site being monitored is LOT in Chicago, IL.

The site is operating in VCP mode 12.

McHenry County Wx triggered the alert because precipitation exceeded 50 dBZ (VIP level 10).
The maximum detected precipitation level is 55 dBZ (VIP level 11).

McHenry County Wx precipitation sensitivity is set to 50.

The current radar product is Short Range Composite Reflectivity (NCR).

The text description for the maximum detected precipitation level is: "2" to 4"/hr very heavy rain: pea to marble sized hail possible".