AREAS AFFECTED...W-CNTRL/CNTRL OH...NRN/CNTRL IND...NRN/CNTRL
IL...SERN IA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 300446Z - 300645Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR SVR STORMS WILL PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...PERHAPS SPREADING INTO PARTS OF W-CNTRL/CNTRL OHIO LATE IN
THE NIGHT. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...AND THE ISSUANCE
OF A SVR TSTM WATCH IS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...A LOOSELY ORGANIZED...ELEVATED CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY COMPRISED OF A FORWARD-PROPAGATING LINEAR SEGMENT
CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE IND/IL BORDER SOUTH OF CHICAGO...AND A
BACK-BUILDING SEGMENT OVER SERN IA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF NWRN IL
NEAR AND SOUTH OF MOLINE. THIS ACTIVITY PERSISTS AMIDST A
STRENGTHENING 850-700-MB WAA REGIME...AIDED BY INTENSIFICATION OF
THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND MAXIMUM. WITH MUCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF
2000 J/KG ACROSS MANY AREAS ROBUST UPDRAFTS WILL ENSUE. EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES OF 40-50 KT MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION...AND PERHAPS UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL...NEAR-SFC BASED CONVECTIVE COMPLEX SHOULD A
LARGER/STRONGER COLD POOL MATERIALIZE. IF CONVECTIVE TRENDS APPEAR
TO SUGGEST A MORE WIDESPREAD SVR THREAT...THEN A SVR TSTM WATCH MAY
BE NEEDED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
..COHEN/HART.. 06/30/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN...
LAT...LON 41728853 41528648 40958451 40088285 39598313 39478407
39818593 39908731 39948958 40419129 41159178 41639102
41728853
