Thursday, June 28, 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 20:27:08.7289172

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IND...A SMALL PART OF NERN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 433...

VALID 290126Z - 290230Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 433
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE SVR THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS WW 433...AND THE WW MAY
NEED TO BE LOCALLY EXPANDED EWD INTO MARSHALL AND FULTON COUNTIES IN
NRN IND.

DISCUSSION...A SMALL CONVECTIVE SEGMENT HAS BECOME ORGANIZED AND
WILL CONTINUE TO BE STEERED ESEWD GIVEN 30-50 KT OF WNWLY FLOW
WITHIN THE 2-7-KM-AGL LAYER PER NORTHERN INDIANA VWP DATA. DMGG WIND
AND SVR HAIL WILL BE OF CONCERN WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

ELEVATED -- YET STRONGLY UNSTABLE -- INFLOW ATOP SWD/SWWD-SURGING
OUTFLOW...CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM JASPER COUNTY IND TO
KANKAKEE/WILL COUNTIES IL...SHOULD MAINTAIN CONVECTION DURING THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO OVER THE WRN FLANKS OF THE COLD POOL. THIS COULD
PROVIDE SOME LOCALIZED SVR THREAT JUST WEST OF THE WW AREA.
MEANWHILE...INFLOW INTO THE ERN-FLANK OF CONVECTION ENTERING STARKE
COUNTY IS LIKELY MORE SFC-BASED...AND FORWARD-PROPAGATION OF THIS
COMPONENT MAY BRING A SVR THREAT EAST OF THE WW AREA INTO MARSHALL
AND FULTON COUNTIES. AS SUCH...THE WW MAY NEED TO BE LOCALLY
EXPANDED EWD BY A TIER OF COUNTIES.

..COHEN.. 06/29/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...LOT...

LAT...LON 41368615 41168607 40978620 40838664 40898722 41308783
41618798 41728769 41628716 41488658 41368615