Friday, March 23, 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 15:18:42.5457078

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN IL...SRN/WRN IND...WRN KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 101...

VALID 232017Z - 232115Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 101
CONTINUES.

A DOWNSTREAM WW ISSUANCE IS BEING CONSIDERED FOR PORTIONS OF ERN
IL...CNTRL/SRN IND.

AN ARC OF SEMI-DISCRETE/CLUSTERS OF TSTMS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES HAD PERSISTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN IL INTO SWRN IND AS
OF 20Z. AN APPARENT MCV HAS BEEN NOTED IN RADAR REFLECTIVITY WITHIN
THE REMNANT OF THE INITIAL LONG-LIVED SUPERCELL RESPONSIBLE FOR
NUMEROUS BRIEF TORNADO REPORTS EARLIER. REFLECTIVITY STRUCTURES
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN INVOF MCV WITH BROADENING OF THE
STRATIFORM REGION AS WELL. AS SUCH...THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD HAVE
PEAKED EARLIER AND BE IN THE PROCESS OF DIMINISHING.

FARTHER E...ARCING BAND OF SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO
SHIFT NEWD. HAVING RECENTLY INTERCEPTED THE AXIS OF A DEEPER MIXED
AIR MASS /CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S SURFACE DEW
POINTS/...LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL HAS INCREASED PER 47 KT
GUST MEASURED AT KEVV AT 1945Z. THE SRN EXTENT OF THE THREAT INTO KY
APPEARS LIMITED IN THE NEAR-TERM BY LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE...BUT
SHOULD EVENTUALLY INCREASE TOWARDS EARLY EVENING AS IMPULSE OVER NRN
AR /EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/ ROTATES EWD.

..GRAMS.. 03/23/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...

LAT...LON 38708834 39308863 39998860 40548858 41078851 41328803
41408742 41258683 40618623 39428580 38368597 37838623
36948700 37058761 37558741 38068734 38588746 38708834