CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 180641Z - 180815Z
THE BAND OF ONGOING STORMS...EAST OF THE BURLINGTON IA/QUINCY IL AND
ST. LOUIS MO AREAS...APPEARS TO BE SUPPORTED BY A ZONE OF ENHANCED
LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION...IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK
MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH SLOWLY TURNING EASTWARD
ACROSS ILLINOIS/INDIANA. THIS IS ALSO ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR...WHICH HAS OVERSPREAD MOST AREAS EAST
OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE VICINITY OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...WHERE
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE CONTRIBUTING MODERATELY LARGE MOST
UNSTABLE CAPE. DESPITE THE LACK OF STRONGER VERTICAL
SHEAR...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES HAVE BEEN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
OCCASIONAL MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IN STRONGER UPDRAFT PULSES...AND
LIKELY WILL REMAIN SO AS LONG AS ACTIVITY PERSISTS. IT APPEARS THAT
THIS COULD BE ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS...AT LEAST INTO THE 09-10Z
TIME FRAME...PERHAPS LONGER...WITH A GRADUAL EASTWARD DEVELOPMENT
TOWARD THE INDIANA/ILLINOIS BORDER AREA. BUT A SUBSTANTIVE INCREASE
IN INTENSITY AND ORGANIZATION...BEYOND WHAT IS OCCURRING NOW...IS
NOT ANTICIPATED.
..KERR.. 03/18/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...
LAT...LON 41009076 41379039 41548954 41228887 40798819 39608745
38838758 38278832 38428918 38728971 39969074 41009076
