Radar Outage Notification 22:50:43.8142057

NOUS63 KLOT 010349
FTMLOT
Message Date: Apr 01 2012 03:49:49THE WSR88-D AT CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL...KLOT...IS BACK IN FULL SERVICE. DETECTED

Radar Outage Notification 21:48:04.7769916

NOUS63 KLOT 010247
FTMLOT
Message Date: Apr 01 2012 02:47:31THE DATA FEED FROM THE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE ILLINOIS WSR88-D IS NOT WORKING AT THIS TIME. WHILE THE RADAR IS WORKING...DATA IS NOT GETTING TO THE WEB. TECHNICIANS ARE WORKING ON THE PROBLEM.

Mesoscale Discussion 20:54:31.7451828

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN IA...NWRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 010152Z - 010245Z

AN INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE LATE EVENING
HRS FROM CNTRL IA EWD INTO NWRN IL...WITH A PRIMARY THREAT FOR LARGE
HAIL. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING SPECIFIC TIMING/MAGNITUDE
OF SVR POTENTIAL EXISTS...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED
FOR A POSSIBLE WW...PERHAPS AS SOON AS THE NEXT 1-2 HRS.

SFC ANALYSIS FROM 01Z PLACES A WARM FRONT FROM 30 SSE OTM TO 10 NNW
SUX. TO THE NE OF THE WARM FRONT...RADAR ECHOES HAVE DEVELOPED
APPROXIMATELY 40 W OF CEDAR RAPIDS...WITH A NARROW WAA REGIME AIDED
BY A 30-40 KT SWLY LLJ /PER DMX VWP/. WITH TIME...A GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION/EWD EXPANSION OF TSTMS IS EXPECTED. STEEP MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES /SAMPLED AT 7-8 C/KM PER DVN 00Z SOUNDING/ AND MUCAPE
VALUES EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG...ALONG WITH MODERATE W-NWLY MIDLEVEL
FLOW...WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED TSTMS /SOME SUPERCELLS/ CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AS THE PRIMARY THREAT. A MAJORITY OF AVAILABLE
HIGH-RESOLUTION CONVECTION ALLOWING GUIDANCE /INCLUDING 23Z WRF-HRRR
AND 12Z WRF-NMM/ APPEARS TO BE TOO SLOW/FAR EAST WITH INITIAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT GENERAL TREND IS FOR A GRADUAL EWD
EXPANSION OF TSTMS INTO ERN IA AND EVENTUALLY NRN IL AS LOW-LEVEL
WAA BECOMES FOCUSED FARTHER E. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING
EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION AND TIMING OF ASSOCIATED LARGE HAIL THREAT
REMAINS...BUT THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

..ROGERS.. 04/01/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...DVN...ARX...DMX...

LAT...LON 41079247 41599338 42169345 42619257 42509041 42248910
41508832 40988862 40718988 40809189 41079247

Radar Outage Notification 20:08:58.7181262

NOUS63 KLOT 010108
FTMLOT
Message Date: Apr 01 2012 01:08:07THE KLOT WSR88-D AT CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IS BACK ONLINE.

Radar Outage Notification 15:44:16.5608943

NOUS63 KLOT 312042
FTMLOT
Message Date: Mar 31 2012 20:42:31THE KLOT WSR88-D AT CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE FOR MAINTENANCE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. TIME OF RESTORATION OF SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.

Radar Outage Notification 22:08:04.7888716

NOUS63 KLOT 310307
FTMLOT
Message Date: Mar 31 2012 03:07:37KLOT radar is back online power back up.

Radar Outage Notification 17:14:24.6144336

NOUS63 KLOT 302212
FTMLOT
Message Date: Mar 30 2012 22:12:13KLOT radar is going back offline. Our transmitter power has dropped well below the 650KW.

Radar Outage Notification 16:24:26.5847534

NOUS63 KLOT 302124
FTMLOT
Message Date: Mar 30 2012 21:24:06KLOT radar is back online.

Radar Outage Notification 15:34:19.5549841

NOUS63 KLOT 302030
FTMLOT
Message Date: Mar 30 2012 20:30:54KLOT radar is going offline for about 1/2 hour for corrective maintenance.

Radar Outage Notification 19:28:57.6943563

NOUS63 KLOT 300027
FTMLOT
Message Date: Mar 30 2012 00:27:31KLOT radar is back online. X1

Radar Outage Notification 09:04:46.3235914

NOUS63 KLOT 291403
FTMLOT
Message Date: Mar 29 2012 14:03:38KLOT radar is going offline for transmitter maintenance checks.

Radar Outage Notification 16:37:07.5922873

NOUS63 KLOT 282137
FTMLOT
Message Date: Mar 28 2012 21:37:03KLOT radar is back online.

Radar Outage Notification 09:16:44.3306996

NOUS63 KLOT 281416
FTMLOT
Message Date: Mar 28 2012 14:16:27KLOT radar is going offline for several hours for corrective maintenance.

Mesoscale Discussion 20:44:01.7389458

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN/WRN IL...EXTREME NERN/N-CENTRAL
KS...EXTREME NWRN INDIANA...WRN/NRN MO...EXTREME SERN IA...EXTREME
SRN LM.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 280143Z - 280345Z

GRADUAL DEEPENING OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN NOTED IN PREFRONTAL BAND
FROM N-CENTRAL IL TO NERN MO...WITH POTENTIAL MOVEMENT ACROSS SRN LM
REGION AND POSSIBLE BACKBUILDING TOWARD KS/MO BORDER REGION DURING
NEXT FEW HOURS. OCNL SVR HAIL OR DAMAGING GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.

01Z SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWED COLD FRONT FROM E-CENTRAL WI SWWD ACROSS
DBQ/OTM/STJ AREAS. WARM FRONT WAS DRAWN FROM ERN WI SSEWD ACROSS
CHI AREA TO NEAR SDF...HOWEVER RELATIVELY DRY SFC AIR WITH MID-UPPER
40S F DEW POINTS EXTENDED W OF WARM FRONT OVER ERN IL. GIVEN SWLY
FLOW ON BOTH SIDES OF COLD FRONT...FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WAS
WEAK...AND SHOULD REMAIN SO THROUGH AT LEAST 04Z. HOWEVER...SFC
CONFLUENCE LINE WAS EVIDENT OVER W-CENTRAL/N-CENTRAL IL. THOUGH AT
OBLIQUE ANGLE TO DEVELOPING CONVECTION...STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL LIFT
APPEARS TO BE NEAR SFC CONFLUENCE ZONE. MOIST AXIS WAS DRAWN ABOUT
35-45 NM AHEAD OF FRONT OVER MOST OF AREA. 850 AND 925 MB UPPER AIR
CHARTS SHOWED MOIST AXES AT THOSE LEVELS NEARLY COLLOCATED FROM
PNC-MKC-PIA. 00Z UPPER AIR CHARTS AND LATEST VWP/PROFILER WINDS
INDICATED LLJ AXIS SLIGHTLY FARTHER S NEAR OKC-COU-SBN LINE.

CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF FRONT...ALONG SRN FRINGE OF
LOW-LEVEL MOIST PLUME...S OF MOIST AXES AND N OF LLJ. MOIST
ADVECTION...AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT...SHOULD HELP TO
MAINTAIN THIS ACTIVITY AND PERHAPS INCREASE COVERAGE...WHILE BAND
TRANSLATES EWD 20-25 KT AND EMBEDDED CELLS MOVE FASTER NEWD.
MODIFIED DVN/ILX/TOP/SGF RAOBS...ORD ACARS SOUNDING AND RUC FCST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE NEAR MOIST AXIS...BUT ALSO
INCREASING MLCINH LIKELY WITH EVENING DIABATIC COOLING NEAR SFC.
THIS WILL MAKE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL MORE CONDITIONAL/MRGL WITH
TIME. MEANWHILE NEARLY PARALLEL NATURE OF MEAN FLOW TO CONVECTIVE
PLUME SUPPORTS QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE...LIKELY LIMITING THREAT
FOR SIGNIFICANT SVR HAIL. NONETHELESS...PRESENCE OF FAVORABLE
BUOYANCY ATOP MOISTURE PLUME...AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES
RANGING FROM AROUND 50 KT OVER NRN IL TO 35 KT NEAR MKC...WILL
SUPPORT SOME POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH SPORADIC SVR.
THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH SEWD OVER E-CENTRAL IL AND NRN INDIANA INTO
PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER LOW-LEVEL THETAE.

..EDWARDS.. 03/28/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...TOP...

LAT...LON 39399540 42418725 41048727 38139546 39399540

Mesoscale Discussion 15:59:03.5696757

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN IA/SOUTHERN WI/NORTHWEST IL/NORTHEAST MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 272058Z - 272300Z

MONITORING FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT...WHICH COULD INITIALLY
OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION INTO THE 23Z-02Z TIME FRAME. A
WATCH MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

A WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE A GRADUAL EASTWARD PROGRESSION
TOWARD THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY AT MID AFTERNOON WITHIN A
NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED CORRIDOR FROM WESTERN WI TO
SOUTH-CENTRAL IA/NORTHWEST MO. MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 50S F...OTHERWISE CONTINUES TO
STEADILY INCREASE WITH NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD EXTENT IMMEDIATELY AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. NEAR/AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
REMAINS MODEST AS WINDS AT/JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE HAVE CONTINUED TO
VEER PER SURFACE OBSERVATIONS/REGIONAL DERIVED WIND DATA.
HOWEVER...A LOW-AMPLITUDE EASTWARD-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SPEED MAX
CURRENTLY OVER SD/SOUTHWEST MN PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MAY PROVIDE
AN IMPETUS FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS INHIBITION OTHERWISE CONTINUES TO ERODE
WITHIN THE MODESTLY MOIST NEAR-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR.

WHILE CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTIVE DETAILS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY
HIGH...AN ASSORTMENT OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE INCLUDING A NUMBER OF 15Z
SREF MEMBERS IMPLY THAT SUCH DEVELOPMENT WILL BE MORE PROBABLE INTO
THE 23Z-02Z TIME FRAME ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR EASTERN IA/FAR
NORTHWEST IL AND ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTHERN MO...ALTHOUGH A GRADUAL
DEEPENING OF THE CUMULUS FIELD HAS BEEN NOTED AS FAR NORTHEAST AS
SOUTHWEST WI AT MID-AFTERNOON. IF/WHERE DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
DOES OCCUR INTO THIS EVENING...STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR /45-50 KT OR
GREATER/ WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED STORMS INCLUDING INITIAL
MODE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL/PERHAPS A TORNADO...WITH
DAMAGING WINDS A POSSIBILITY AS WELL. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH.

..GUYER.. 03/27/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...

LAT...LON 41099298 42569163 43789064 43698967 42328921 40329133
41099298

Non-Precipitation Watch, Warning, Advisory 09:00:29.3210471

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS CANCELLED THE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY.

VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING.

Non-Precipitation Watch, Warning, Advisory 03:35:16.1278683

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING.

* VISIBILITY...AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE SLOWLY DEVELOPED AND
REDUCED VISIBILITIES TO AT TIMES LESS THAN A QUARTER MILE.

* IMPACTS...MOTORISTS WILL LIKELY ENCOUNTER RAPID REDUCTIONS IN
THE VISIBILITY AS THEY ENTER THE DENSE FOG. THIS WILL MAKE
TRAVEL HAZARDOUS. USE CAUTION AND REMAIN ALERT FOR RAPIDLY
CHANGING CONDITIONS WHEN TRAVELING TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MEANS VISIBILITIES WILL FREQUENTLY BE
REDUCED TO LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE. IF DRIVING...SLOW DOWN...
USE YOUR HEADLIGHTS...AND LEAVE PLENTY OF DISTANCE AHEAD OF YOU.

&&

Mesoscale Discussion 19:02:07.6784173

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN IL AND NWRN IND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 102...

VALID 240001Z - 240100Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 102
CONTINUES.

HOWEVER...TRENDS IN REGIONAL RADAR DATA INCLUDING CAPPI INDICATED A
CONTINUED WEAKENING TREND WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MOVING NWD
THROUGH NWRN IND AND ADJACENT NERN IL. DIMINISHING INSTABILITY AND
A CONVECTIVELY OVERTURNED AIR MASS ACROSS THIS PORTION OF WW 102
SUGGEST ANY ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE QUITE LOW.
THUS...THIS WATCH MAY BE CANCELLED PRIOR TO 24/02Z.

..PETERS.. 03/24/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...

LAT...LON 40638615 40428736 40488834 41188829 41338794 41318714
41168648 40958615 40638615

Mesoscale Discussion 15:18:42.5457078

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN IL...SRN/WRN IND...WRN KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 101...

VALID 232017Z - 232115Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 101
CONTINUES.

A DOWNSTREAM WW ISSUANCE IS BEING CONSIDERED FOR PORTIONS OF ERN
IL...CNTRL/SRN IND.

AN ARC OF SEMI-DISCRETE/CLUSTERS OF TSTMS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES HAD PERSISTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN IL INTO SWRN IND AS
OF 20Z. AN APPARENT MCV HAS BEEN NOTED IN RADAR REFLECTIVITY WITHIN
THE REMNANT OF THE INITIAL LONG-LIVED SUPERCELL RESPONSIBLE FOR
NUMEROUS BRIEF TORNADO REPORTS EARLIER. REFLECTIVITY STRUCTURES
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN INVOF MCV WITH BROADENING OF THE
STRATIFORM REGION AS WELL. AS SUCH...THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD HAVE
PEAKED EARLIER AND BE IN THE PROCESS OF DIMINISHING.

FARTHER E...ARCING BAND OF SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO
SHIFT NEWD. HAVING RECENTLY INTERCEPTED THE AXIS OF A DEEPER MIXED
AIR MASS /CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S SURFACE DEW
POINTS/...LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL HAS INCREASED PER 47 KT
GUST MEASURED AT KEVV AT 1945Z. THE SRN EXTENT OF THE THREAT INTO KY
APPEARS LIMITED IN THE NEAR-TERM BY LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE...BUT
SHOULD EVENTUALLY INCREASE TOWARDS EARLY EVENING AS IMPULSE OVER NRN
AR /EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/ ROTATES EWD.

..GRAMS.. 03/23/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...

LAT...LON 38708834 39308863 39998860 40548858 41078851 41328803
41408742 41258683 40618623 39428580 38368597 37838623
36948700 37058761 37558741 38068734 38588746 38708834

Flood Potential Outlook 13:01:25.4641615

...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE...AHPS...ENABLES
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...NWS...TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE
PROBABILISTIC RIVER OUTLOOKS...

THE VALUES IN THE TABLE BELOW ARE VALID MAR 26 TO JUN 24 2012

IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE
THE CHANCE THAT A LOCATION ON A RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED
STAGE LEVELS IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS.

FOR EXAMPLE: THE KANKAKEE RIVER AT DUNNS BRIDGE HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF
10 FEET. WITHIN THE NEXT 90 DAYS...THERE IS A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
THE RIVER WILL RISE ABOVE 8.0 FT.

LOCATION FS (FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
-------- ------- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
KANKAKEE RIVER
DUNNS BRIDGE 10.0 6.1 7.1 8.0 8.3 8.6 8.9 9.3 9.9 10.1
KOUTS 11.0 7.1 8.2 9.1 9.4 9.7 10.1 10.4 11.1 11.3
SHELBY 9.0 7.7 8.9 9.7 10.1 10.6 11.0 11.3 11.8 13.3
MOMENCE 5.0 3.1 3.6 3.9 4.1 4.5 4.7 4.9 5.3 7.2
WILMINGTON 6.5 3.2 4.1 4.5 4.7 5.1 5.4 5.6 6.0 7.0

SUGAR CREEK
MILFORD 18.0 14.4 16.5 17.2 17.5 17.8 18.6 19.3 20.3 22.3

IROQUOIS RIVER
RENSSELAER 12.0 8.4 9.6 10.1 10.9 11.3 11.7 12.3 12.9 13.7
FORESMAN 18.0 12.8 13.9 14.7 15.3 16.0 16.7 17.4 18.2 19.0
IROQUOIS 18.0 13.2 14.3 15.6 16.6 17.4 18.9 20.0 21.5 22.2
CHEBANSE 16.0 8.8 9.4 10.1 10.6 11.6 12.5 13.6 14.9 16.3

DES PLAINES RIVER
RUSSELL 7.0 4.9 5.8 6.5 6.9 7.2 7.3 7.4 7.7 7.9
GURNEE 7.0 3.5 4.1 4.9 5.5 5.9 6.2 6.8 7.3 8.1
DES PLAINES 5.0 1.5 1.9 2.3 2.6 2.9 3.4 4.1 4.9 6.7
LINCOLNSHIRE 12.5 8.1 8.9 9.8 10.3 10.7 11.0 11.7 12.0 13.3
RIVERSIDE 7.0 3.6 4.3 4.7 5.2 5.9 6.3 6.4 6.9 7.5

FOX RIVER
ALGONQUIN TAILW 9.5 6.8 7.6 8.0 8.2 8.7 8.9 9.3 9.8 12.6
MONTGOMERY 13.0 12.0 12.4 12.6 12.8 12.9 13.0 13.2 13.4 14.0
DAYTON 12.0 8.1 8.8 9.9 10.4 11.2 11.7 12.3 12.9 14.2

EAST BR DU PAGE RIVER
BOLINGBROOK 19.5 17.5 18.2 18.8 19.1 19.4 19.7 19.9 20.1 20.6

DU PAGE RIVER
SHOREWOOD 6.5 4.0 4.5 4.9 5.3 5.5 5.7 6.0 6.2 6.7

MAZON RIVER
COAL CITY 12.0 5.1 6.7 7.2 7.8 9.2 10.0 10.4 11.0 12.8

VERMILION RIVER
PONTIAC 14.0 5.9 6.9 7.5 8.2 9.0 10.0 10.7 13.0 14.7
LEONORE 16.0 9.6 10.2 11.2 12.3 13.5 14.9 16.1 17.9 19.7

THORN CREEK
THORNTON 10.0 5.1 6.4 6.8 7.5 8.0 8.5 9.6 10.6 11.4

HART DITCH
DYER 12.0 4.4 4.9 5.1 5.7 6.1 6.5 7.1 7.6 8.1

LITTLE CALUMET RIVER
MUNSTER 12.0 9.7 10.2 10.5 10.8 11.0 11.5 12.2 13.5 14.9
SOUTH HOLLAND 16.5 9.7 11.1 11.4 11.8 12.5 13.0 13.6 14.1 14.7

ILLINOIS RIVER
MORRIS 16.0 9.1 10.1 12.4 13.7 14.5 15.2 16.2 17.5 20.2
OTTAWA 463.0

LA SALLE 20.0 15.5 18.7 20.1 21.5 22.5 23.2 23.8 25.1 27.8

KISHWAUKEE RIVER
BELVIDERE 9.0 4.0 4.1 4.7 5.3 6.1 7.0 7.3 8.4 9.1
PERRYVILLE 12.0 8.3 8.4 9.3 9.9 10.5 11.7 12.1 13.0 14.0

SOUTH BRANCH KISHWAUKEE RIVER
DE KALB 10.0 4.7 5.1 5.9 6.6 7.3 8.1 8.6 9.2 10.1

ROCK RIVER
ROCKTON 10.0 6.1 6.1 6.3 6.5 7.0 7.6 8.5 9.3 11.3
LATHAM PARK 10.0 6.3 6.3 6.4 6.6 7.0 7.5 8.3 9.0 10.8
ROCKFORD 9.0 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.7 3.9 4.9
BYRON 13.0 8.6 8.7 8.9 9.2 10.0 10.5 11.4 12.2 14.0
DIXON 16.0 10.8 10.9 11.2 11.7 12.3 12.9 13.6 14.7 17.5

PECATONICA RIVER
SHIRLAND 12.0 8.3 8.4 8.9 9.2 9.8 10.5 11.1 12.4 13.6

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO OFFICE IN ROMEOVILLE ISSUES LONG
RANGE AHPS OUTLOOKS FOR ALL RIVER FORECAST LOCATIONS. THIS PRODUCT IS
UPDATED MONTHLY AROUND MID-MONTH. THESE OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED IN
ADDITION TO THE 5 DAY RIVER FORECASTS THAT ARE ISSUED WHEN RIVER
FORECAST LOCATIONS ARE IN FLOOD OR FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE.

THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER...
SOIL MOISTURE...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION.

BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILISTIC NUMBERS...THE LEVEL
OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE
DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE.

VISIT OUR WEB PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO FOR MORE WEATHER AND RIVER
INFORMATION INCLUDING GRAPHS OF PROBABILISTIC RIVER OUTLOOKS.

Radar Outage Notification 13:34:43.4839416

NOUS63 KLOT 211833
FTMLOT
Message Date: Mar 21 2012 18:33:55KLOT radar is back online. P0

Test Message 11:00:10.3921389

THIS IS THE WEEKLY TEST OF THE WXWARN1 ALERT SYSTEM THIS IS ONLY A TEST

Radar Outage Notification 08:55:13.3179186

NOUS63 KLOT 211354
FTMLOT
Message Date: Mar 21 2012 13:54:10KLOT radar will be going down for several hour for RVP processor replacement.

Red Flag Warning 19:03:20.6791400

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND
STRONG WINDS FOR NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS CANCELLED THE RED
FLAG WARNING.

SOUTHERLY WIND SPEEDS HAVE DIMINISHED AND SHOULD CONTINUE SUCH A
TREND THROUGH THE EVENING...WHILE HUMIDITY WILL GRADUALLY RISE.
THUS RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NO LONG PRESENT...AND THE RED FLAG
WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL AGAIN BE PRESENT BY MID MORNING ON
WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WHILE HUMIDITY VALUES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER...MAINLY BETWEEN 30 AND 40
PERCENT...CONDITIONS FOR BURNING STILL MAY BE CHALLENGING.

Red Flag Warning 13:09:21.4688739

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT /9 PM EDT/ THIS
EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND STRONG WINDS FOR ALL OF
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS ALONG WITH NORTHWEST INDIANA
WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT /9 PM EDT/ THIS EVENING.

* AFFECTED AREA...ALL OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS
ALONG WITH NORTHWEST INDIANA.

* WINDS...SOUTH 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

* TIMING...THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AS LOW AS 20 PERCENT.

* IMPACTS...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR RAPID GROWTH OF WILD
FIRES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

&&

Mesoscale Discussion 01:42:45.610334.2

AREAS AFFECTED...IL...IN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 180641Z - 180815Z

THE BAND OF ONGOING STORMS...EAST OF THE BURLINGTON IA/QUINCY IL AND
ST. LOUIS MO AREAS...APPEARS TO BE SUPPORTED BY A ZONE OF ENHANCED
LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION...IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK
MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH SLOWLY TURNING EASTWARD
ACROSS ILLINOIS/INDIANA. THIS IS ALSO ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR...WHICH HAS OVERSPREAD MOST AREAS EAST
OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE VICINITY OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...WHERE
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE CONTRIBUTING MODERATELY LARGE MOST
UNSTABLE CAPE. DESPITE THE LACK OF STRONGER VERTICAL
SHEAR...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES HAVE BEEN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
OCCASIONAL MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IN STRONGER UPDRAFT PULSES...AND
LIKELY WILL REMAIN SO AS LONG AS ACTIVITY PERSISTS. IT APPEARS THAT
THIS COULD BE ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS...AT LEAST INTO THE 09-10Z
TIME FRAME...PERHAPS LONGER...WITH A GRADUAL EASTWARD DEVELOPMENT
TOWARD THE INDIANA/ILLINOIS BORDER AREA. BUT A SUBSTANTIVE INCREASE
IN INTENSITY AND ORGANIZATION...BEYOND WHAT IS OCCURRING NOW...IS
NOT ANTICIPATED.

..KERR.. 03/18/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...

LAT...LON 41009076 41379039 41548954 41228887 40798819 39608745
38838758 38278832 38428918 38728971 39969074 41009076

Radar Scan Zone Alert

This is a severe weather alert from WXWARN1.

The alert occurred at 02:11 PM on Mar 17 2012.
The site being monitored is LOT in Chicago, IL.

The site is operating in VCP mode 12.

WXWARN1 triggered the alert because precipitation exceeded 50 dBZ (VIP level 10).
The maximum detected precipitation level is 15 dBZ (VIP level 3).

WXWARN1 precipitation sensitivity is set to 50.

The current radar product is Short Range Composite Reflectivity (NCR).

The text description for the maximum detected precipitation level is: ".01" to .025"/hr very light rain".

Flood Statement 11:48:40.4209480

...THE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR
CENTRAL MCHENRY COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

HEAVY RAIN AND EXCESS RUNOFF HAS ENDED OVER THE ADVISORY AREA.
STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD BE BEGINNING TO RECEDE...ENDING THE FLOOD
THREAT. IF FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED...PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR
LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

LAT...LON 4236 8831 4215 8848 4216 8858 4236 8850

Flood Statement 10:16:55.3664485

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
CENTRAL MCHENRY COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 100 PM CDT

* AT 1011 AM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. DOPPLER RADAR
ESTIMATED AROUND 2 INCHES OF RAIN NEAR WOODSTOCK SO FAR THIS
MORNING...WHICH MATCHES THE MEASUREMENTS OF TRAINED WEATHER
OBSERVERS IN THE AREA.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING TO
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY ALONG SMALL STREAMS AND NEAR LOW WATER
CROSSINGS. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING
INCLUDE...WOODSTOCK.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING STREAMS AND DRAINAGES...
NIPPERSINK CREEK...THE KISHWAUKEE RIVER AND ITS TRIBUTARIES...BOONE
CREEK...AND COON CREEK.

LAT...LON 4236 8831 4215 8848 4216 8858 4236 8850

Severe Weather Statement 10:06:26.3602213

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL MCHENRY COUNTY HAS
EXPIRED...

THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE WEAKENED BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS FOR THE TIME BEING. HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN ARE STILL
POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER WARNING MAY STILL BE
NECESSARY THIS MORNING.

LAT...LON 4236 8828 4215 8834 4215 8852 4233 8846
TIME...MOT...LOC 1455Z 255DEG 4KT 4232 8839 4219 8847

Severe Weather Statement 09:55:47.3538953

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL
MCHENRY COUNTY UNTIL 1000 AM CDT...

AT 948 AM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS. THESE
STORMS WERE LOCATED IN THE AREA BETWEEN WOODSTOCK...UNION...AND
CRYSTAL LAKE AND WERE MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MCHENRY...BULL VALLEY...LAKEWOOD AND CRYSTAL LAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...LARGE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR
PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME
OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO
AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 4236 8828 4215 8834 4215 8852 4233 8846
TIME...MOT...LOC 1452Z 255DEG 4KT 4232 8839 4219 8847
WIND...HAIL <50MPH 1.00IN

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 09:38:50.3438270

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL MCHENRY COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 1000 AM CDT

* AT 935 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
WOODSTOCK TO HUNTLEY...AND MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

AROUND 930 AM CDT ONE INCH DIAMETER HAIL WAS REPORTED NEAR
WOODSTOCK WITH THESE STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MCHENRY...BULL VALLEY...HUNTLEY...LAKEWOOD AND CRYSTAL LAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...LARGE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR
PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME
OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO
AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 4236 8828 4215 8834 4215 8852 4233 8846
TIME...MOT...LOC 1437Z 255DEG 4KT 4232 8841 4219 8849
WIND...HAIL <50MPH 1.00IN

Special Weather Statement 09:31:50.3396690

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 926 AM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM WOODSTOCK TO HUNTLEY...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HUNTLEY... HAMPSHIRE... ALGONQUIN...
GILBERTS... LAKEWOOD... LAKE IN THE HILLS...
HEBRON... WOODSTOCK... PRAIRIE GROVE...
BULL VALLEY... WONDER LAKE... MCHENRY...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HEAVY RAINFALL CAN LEAD TO FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS
DITCHES...VIADUCTS...UNDERPASSES...CREEKS AND DRAINAGE AREAS. SEEK
SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

LAT...LON 4250 8821 4196 8834 4197 8872 4227 8854
4249 8852
TIME...MOT...LOC 1431Z 207DEG 15KT 4239 8846 4223 8848

Special Weather Statement 08:28:31.3020589

AT 822 AM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR HAMSPIRE NORTHWEST TO MARENGO AND THEN NORTH
TO HARVARD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...HARVARD...AND HUNTLEY AROUND 845 AM...
WOODSTOCK AROUND 855 AM...LAKEWOOD...AND LAKEWOOD AROUND 900 AM...
LAKE IN THE HILLS AROUND 905 AM...CRYSTAL LAKE AROUND 910 AM AND
WONDER LAKE AROUND 915 AM.

LAT...LON 4238 8830 4221 8827 4207 8860 4223 8859
4235 8870 4250 8853 4250 8845
TIME...MOT...LOC 1328Z 234DEG 13KT 4234 8865 4226 8854
4217 8852

Severe Weather Statement 08:25:21.3001778

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN DE KALB AND
WESTERN MCHENRY COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED...

THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE WEAKENED BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS...HOWEVER HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE REMAINS POSSIBLE OVER
MCHENRY COUNTY AS WELL AS VERY HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

LAT...LON 4217 8850 4215 8855 4215 8859 4213 8859
4211 8863 4209 8871 4209 8872 4215 8872
4215 8870 4233 8870 4249 8849
TIME...MOT...LOC 1309Z 234DEG 13KT 4225 8862 4211 8861

Severe Weather Statement 08:09:44.2909015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN
DE KALB AND WESTERN MCHENRY COUNTIES UNTIL 815 AM CDT...

AT 805 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL.
THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM MARENGO TO
GENOA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
MARENGO AROUND 815 AM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDE
UNION.

LAT...LON 4217 8850 4215 8855 4215 8859 4213 8859
4211 8863 4209 8871 4209 8872 4215 8872
4215 8870 4233 8870 4249 8849
TIME...MOT...LOC 1309Z 234DEG 13KT 4225 8862 4211 8861
WIND...HAIL <50MPH 1.00IN

Severe Weather Statement 07:49:51.2790909

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN
DE KALB...SOUTHEASTERN BOONE AND WESTERN MCHENRY COUNTIES UNTIL 815
AM CDT...

AT 748 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL.
THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM CAPRON TO
GENOA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
MARENGO AROUND 810 AM CDT.
HARVARD AROUND 815 AM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDE
UNION.

LAT...LON 4249 8849 4217 8850 4215 8855 4215 8859
4213 8859 4211 8863 4209 8871 4209 8872
4216 8877 4237 8878
TIME...MOT...LOC 1249Z 234DEG 13KT 4235 8872 4211 8867
WIND...HAIL <50MPH 1.00IN

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 07:30:47.2677652

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN BOONE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN DE KALB COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
WESTERN MCHENRY COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 815 AM CDT

* AT 729 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM POPLAR
GROVE TO KINGSTON...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
KINGSTON AROUND 735 AM CDT.
GENOA AROUND 745 AM CDT.
HARVARD AROUND 810 AM CDT.
MARENGO AROUND 815 AM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THESE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDE UNION.

LAT...LON 4249 8849 4217 8850 4215 8855 4215 8859
4213 8859 4211 8863 4207 8882 4236 8884
TIME...MOT...LOC 1230Z 234DEG 13KT 4234 8878 4209 8877
WIND...HAIL <50MPH 1.00IN

Non-Precipitation Watch, Warning, Advisory 09:46:37.3484503

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING...

THE STRATUS AND AREAS OF DENSE FOG WERE QUICKLY RETREATING BACK
NORTH ACROSS THE WISCONSIN STATE LINE AT MID MORNING. BY 10 AM
CDT ALL OF THE FOG WILL HAVE CLEARED OUT OF FAR NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS. THUS...THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE.

Non-Precipitation Watch, Warning, Advisory 08:33:42.3051378

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS
MORNING...

* VISIBILITY...AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL RESULT IN LOCAL
VISIBILITIES DOWN TO NEAR ZERO IN SPOTS.

* IMPACTS...MOTORISTS WILL LIKELY ENCOUNTER RAPID REDUCTIONS IN
THE VISIBILITY AS THEY ENTER THE DENSE FOG. THIS WILL MAKE
TRAVEL HAZARDOUS. USE CAUTION AND REMAIN ALERT FOR RAPIDLY
CHANGING CONDITIONS WHEN TRAVELING THIS MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MEANS VISIBILITIES WILL FREQUENTLY BE
REDUCED TO LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE. IF DRIVING...SLOW DOWN...
USE YOUR HEADLIGHTS...AND LEAVE PLENTY OF DISTANCE AHEAD OF YOU.

&&

Non-Precipitation Watch, Warning, Advisory 03:59:01.1419759

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING.

* VISIBILITY...AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL RESULT IN NEAR ZERO
VISIBILITY IN SPOTS.

* IMPACTS...MOTORISTS WILL LIKELY ENCOUNTER RAPID REDUCTIONS IN
THE VISIBILITY AS THEY ENTER THE DENSE FOG. THIS WILL MAKE
TRAVEL HAZARDOUS. USE CAUTION AND REMAIN ALERT FOR RAPIDLY
CHANGING CONDITIONS WHEN TRAVELING THIS MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MEANS VISIBILITIES WILL FREQUENTLY BE
REDUCED TO LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE. IF DRIVING...SLOW DOWN...
USE YOUR HEADLIGHTS...AND LEAVE PLENTY OF DISTANCE AHEAD OF YOU.

&&

Mesoscale Discussion 17:03:18.6078402

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IN...CNTRL IL...NWRN OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 152202Z - 160030Z

A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THEN NEXT FEW
HOURS...MAINLY OVER NRN IND INTO NWRN OH. HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM N CNTRL IL
INTO NRN IND...EXTENDING NEWD INTO SERN LOWER MI. THESE STORMS WERE
ON THE TRAILING EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX SHIFTING EWD ACROSS
MI...AND ORIENTED W-E WITHIN A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH.

THE AIR MASS ACROSS THIS REGION IS VERY UNSTABLE WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES THROUGH A DEEP LAYER. SHEAR IN THIS AREA IS RATHER WEAK...AND
FLOW IS LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL. THEREFORE...A LONG LIVED ORGANIZED
SEVERE THREAT IS NOT ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER..THERMODYNAMICS ARE VERY
FAVORABLE FOR PULSE OR MULTICELL SEVERE HAIL. THE THREAT IS EXPECTED
TO PEAK BETWEEN NOW AND 01Z BEFORE THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS.

..JEWELL.. 03/15/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...
DVN...

LAT...LON 41738479 41698345 41288349 40728403 40718582 40648721
40468822 39988921 39448979 39329014 39369077 39909096
40609029 41278948 41558872 41668741 41738573 41738479

Test Message 11:00:28.3923172

THIS IS THE WEEKLY TEST OF THE WXWARN1 ALERT SYSTEM THIS IS ONLY A TEST

Radar Outage Notification 15:12:09.5418171

NOUS63 KLOT 132010
FTMLOT
Message Date: Mar 13 2012 20:10:36KLOT radar is back online.

Radar Outage Notification 09:07:57.3254823

NOUS63 KLOT 131407
FTMLOT
Message Date: Mar 13 2012 14:07:02KLOT radar will be going offline several hours for corrective maintenance. tation detected since 3/13/2012 06:35 Z.

Mesoscale Discussion 11:03:41.3942279

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IL...FAR SERN WI...FAR SWRN LOWER MI...NWRN IND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 121603Z - 121700Z

DMGG WIND THREAT SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON FROM
PORTIONS OF NRN IL/SERN WI EWD TOWARDS SWRN LWR MI. A WW DOES NOT
APPEAR IMMINENT PRIMARILY OWING TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY...BUT
CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW
THIS AFTERNOON.

A NARROW ZONE OF ASCENT FOCUSED ALONG THE SERN PERIPHERY OF A CLOSED
UPPER MIDWEST LOW HAS SUPPORTED A LINE OF TSTMS EXTENDING FROM 20 SE
MLI TO 30 E JVL. THIS ACTIVITY WAS LOCATED JUST W OF A LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AXIS...WITH MID-UPPER 50S DEW POINTS SLOWLY ADVECTING NWD
INTO SRN WI. PARTIAL CLEARING OVER NERN IL/SERN WI IS ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE LOW 60S...YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES OF
200-500 J/KG. ADDITIONALLY...WEAK INHIBITION WAS NOTED IN 12Z
DVN/ILX SOUNDINGS...SUGGESTING CONVECTION IS LIKELY ROOTED NEAR THE
SFC ATTM. BACKGROUND FLOW FIELDS ARE QUITE STRONG /40-50 KTS 0.5-3
KM AGL LAYER MEAN FLOW AS SAMPLED BY LOT/ILX VWP/...AND WITH NEARLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELDS...PRIMARY THREAT
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON APPEARS TO BE DMGG WINDS...BUT A BRIEF/WEAK
TOR THREAT MAY EXIST GIVEN MODERATELY STRONG 0-1 KM SHEAR AND A
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER/LOW LCL/S. A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED...WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY BEING THE PRIMARY FACTOR
PRECLUDING A MORE SIGNIFICANT DMGG WIND THREAT ATTM...BUT CONVECTIVE
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

..ROGERS.. 03/12/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...

LAT...LON 42728790 42658679 42378593 41968586 41508612 41398818
41288902 41148983 41149026 41469016 41978941 42388886
42628839 42748807 42728790

Red Flag Warning 17:59:36.6412823

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM CST /7 PM EST/ THIS
EVENING FOR LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND STRONG WINDS FOR NORTHERN
ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA...

THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM CST /7 PM EST/ THIS
EVENING.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BEGIN TO RECOVER ABOVE 30 PERCENT BY EARLY
THIS EVENING AS WINDS ABATE. THEREFORE...THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL
BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

Red Flag Warning 09:55:43.3538557

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST /7 PM EST/
THIS EVENING FOR LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND STRONG WINDS FOR
NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST /7 PM EST/
THIS EVENING.

* AFFECTED AREA...ALL OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS
ALONG WITH NORTHWEST INDIANA.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH.

* TIMING...LATE MORNING THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...20 TO 25 PERCENT.

* IMPACTS...CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE RAPID GROWTH OF
WILD FIRES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

&&

Red Flag Warning 05:30:13.1961486

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM CST /NOON EST/ THIS
MORNING TO 6 PM CST /7 PM EST/ THIS EVENING FOR LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AND STRONG WINDS FOR NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST
INDIANA...

THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* AFFECTED AREA...ALL OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS
ALONG WITH NORTHWEST INDIANA.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.

* TIMING...LATE MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...20 TO 25 PERCENT.

* IMPACTS...CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE RAPID GROWTH OF
WILD FIRES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

&&

Red Flag Warning 22:07:39.7886241

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM CST /11 AM
EST/ SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AND STRONG WINDS FOR NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST
INDIANA...

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM CST /11 AM EST/
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

* AFFECTED AREA...ALL OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS
ALONG WITH NORTHWEST INDIANA.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

* TIMING...LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...UNDER 30 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60.

* IMPACTS...CONDITIONS MAY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR THE RAPID GROWTH
OF WILD FIRES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE
RED FLAG WARNINGS.

&&

Red Flag Warning 18:20:42.6538158

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND STRONG
WINDS FOR NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA...

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

* AFFECTED AREA...ALL OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS
ALONG WITH NORTHWEST INDIANA.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

* TIMING...LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...UNDER 30 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60.

* IMPACTS...CONDITIONS MAY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR THE RAPID GROWTH
OF WILD FIRES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE
RED FLAG WARNINGS.

&&

Red Flag Warning 16:56:34.6038406

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND STRONG WINDS
FOR NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

* AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 001 LAKE IN...FIRE WEATHER
ZONE 002 PORTER...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 003 WINNEBAGO...FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 004 BOONE...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 005 MCHENRY...FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 006 LAKE IL...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 008 OGLE...FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 010 LEE...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 010 NEWTON...FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 011 DE KALB...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 011 JASPER...FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 012 KANE...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 013 DUPAGE...FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 014 COOK...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 019 LA SALLE...FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 019 BENTON...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 020 KENDALL...FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 021 GRUNDY...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 022 WILL...FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 023 KANKAKEE...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 032 LIVINGSTON...
FIRE WEATHER ZONE 033 IROQUOIS AND FIRE WEATHER ZONE 039 FORD.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

* TIMING...LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...UNDER 30 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60.

* IMPACTS...CONDITIONS MAY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR THE RAPID GROWTH
OF WILD FIRES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE
RED FLAG WARNINGS.

&&

Non-Precipitation Watch, Warning, Advisory 18:05:14.6446285

...WIND ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY GUST TO 40 MPH THIS EVENING...BUT
WILL STEADILY DIMINISH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.

Non-Precipitation Watch, Warning, Advisory 15:41:27.5592213

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST /7 PM EST/ THIS
EVENING...

* TIMING...GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE...DECREASING
GRADUALLY THIS EVENING.

* WINDS...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SUSTAINED AROUND 30 MPH WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH.

* IMPACTS...LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS SUCH AS LAWN FURNITURE AND
GARBAGE CANS WILL BLOW AROUND. DRIVING MAY BE A CHALLENGE THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY HIGH-PROFILE VEHICLES ON EAST-WEST
ROADS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 39 MPH...OR
GUSTS BETWEEN 45 AND 57 MPH...ARE LIKELY. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN
CAUSE MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE UNLESS PRECAUTIONS ARE TAKEN. DRIVING
MAY BE DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. MOTORISTS
SHOULD BE ALERT AND USE CAUTION.

&&

Non-Precipitation Watch, Warning, Advisory 11:21:21.4047219

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST /7 PM EST/ THIS
EVENING...

* TIMING...GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE...DECREASING GRADUALLY
THIS EVENING.

* WINDS...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SUSTAINED AROUND 30 MPH WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH.

* IMPACTS...LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS SUCH AS LAWN FURNITURE AND
GARBAGE CANS WILL BLOW AROUND. DRIVING MAY BE A CHALLENGE THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY HIGH-PROFILE VEHICLES ON EAST-WEST ROADS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 39 MPH...OR
GUSTS BETWEEN 45 AND 57 MPH...ARE LIKELY. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN
CAUSE MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE UNLESS PRECAUTIONS ARE TAKEN. DRIVING
MAY BE DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. MOTORISTS
SHOULD BE ALERT AND USE CAUTION.

&&

Test Message 11:00:48.3925151

THIS IS THE WEEKLY TEST OF THE WXWARN1 ALERT SYSTEM THIS IS ONLY A TEST

Non-Precipitation Watch, Warning, Advisory 04:01:46.1436093

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST
THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST
THIS EVENING.

* TIMING...GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY
EARLY THIS MORNING...DECREASING GRADUALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

* WINDS...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SUSTAINED AROUND 30 MPH WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 MPH.

* IMPACTS...THIS MAY MAKE DRIVING CHALLENGING FOR HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES...ESPECIALLY ON EAST WEST ORIENTED ROADS.

* OTHER IMPACTS...THE COMBINATION OF THE GUSTY WINDS AND DRY AIR
MAY LEAD TO HAZARDOUS BURNING CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 39 MPH...OR
GUSTS BETWEEN 45 AND 57 MPH...ARE LIKELY. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN
CAUSE MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE UNLESS PRECAUTIONS ARE TAKEN. DRIVING
MAY BE DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. MOTORISTS
SHOULD BE ALERT AND USE CAUTION.

&&

Tornado Warning 10:00:31.3567069

...THIS MESSAGE IS FOR TEST PURPOSES ONLY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A

* THIS IS A TEST MESSAGE. TORNADO WARNING FOR...
ALL ILLINOIS COUNTIES...

* UNTIL 1015 AM CST

* THIS IS A TEST MESSAGE. THIS IS A TEST TORNADO WARNING AS PART OF
ILLINOIS SEVERE WEATHER PREPAREDNESS WEEK.

* THIS IS A TEST MESSAGE. IF THIS WAS AN ACTUAL TORNADO WARNING YOU
WOULD BE GIVEN INFORMATION ON THE LOCATION AND MOVEMENT OF THE
STORM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A TEST MESSAGE. THIS IS A COMMUNICATIONS EXERCISE. PLEASE
REVIEW YOUR TORNADO SHELTER PROCEDURES AT HOME...AT YOUR PLACE OF
BUSINESS OR AT YOUR SCHOOL.

&&

THIS IS A TEST MESSAGE. DO NOT TAKE ACTION BASED ON THIS MESSAGE.

LAT...LON 4055 8846 4061 8846 4061 8857 4075 8859
4075 8894 4092 8894 4093 8905 4110 8905
4111 8917 4158 8917 4159 8964 4220 8970
4221 8940 4250 8940 4249 8779 4227 8782
4176 8754 4049 8756 4048 8793 4039 8798
TIME...MOT...LOC 1555Z 225DEG 20KT 4149 8827

Special Weather Statement 06:05:47.2172753

...WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL COME UP QUICKLY THIS MORNING ACROSS
NORTHERN ILLINOIS...INCLUDING THE CHICAGO AND ROCKFORD AREAS.
SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REACH 20 TO 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. SUCH WIND GUSTS COULD MAKE
TRAVELING IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY ON EAST
WEST ORIENTED ROADS. THE GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT THIS
EVENING...WITH SIMILAR GUSTS FAVORED AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

Special Weather Statement 06:05:06.2168694

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL COME UP QUICKLY THIS MORNING ACROSS
NORTHERN ILLINOIS...INCLUDING THE CHICAGO AND ROCKFORD AREAS.
SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REACH 20 TO 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. SUCH WIND GUSTS COULD MAKE
TRAVELING IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY ON EAST
WEST ORIENTED ROADS. THE GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT THIS
EVENING...WITH SIMILAR GUSTS FAVORED AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

Radar Outage Notification 18:28:45.6585975

NOUS63 KLOT 060027
FTMLOT
Message Date: Mar 06 2012 00:27:57KLOT radar is back online. DETECTED

Radar Outage Notification 09:13:34.3288186

NOUS63 KLOT 051511
FTMLOT
Message Date: Mar 05 2012 15:11:13KLOT radar will be down several hours for RVP replacment.
�

Winter Weather Watch, Warning, Advisory 20:34:20.7331940

...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER
STORM WARNING. LIGHT SNOW HAS MOVED OUT OF MCHENRY COUNTY AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD OUT OF LAKE COUNTY.

Winter Storm Warning 19:50:19.7070480

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT...

* TIMING...A FINAL BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

* ACCUMULATIONS...ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF AROUND 1 INCH IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WARNING AREA. STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL BETWEEN 4
AND 7 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED.

* MAIN IMPACT...THE SNOW WILL FALL AS A VERY WET SNOW...CREATING
SLICK ROADS AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL. STRONG WINDS WILL FURTHER
REDUCE THE VISIBILITY IN MODERATE SNOW.

* OTHER IMPACTS...DUE TO THE HIGH LIQUID CONTENT OF THE SNOW...
THOSE WITH HEALTH CONCERNS SHOULD USE CAUTION WHEN SHOVELING.
THE HEAVY WET SNOW MAY ALSO LEAD TO WEIGHTED DOWN BRANCHES AND
POWER LINES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE
EXPECTED. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL
VERY HAZARDOUS.

&&

Winter Storm Warning 15:45:51.5618349

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT...

* TIMING...PRECIPITATION WILL RAPIDLY CHANGE TO ALL SNOW FROM
WEST TO EAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT
TIMES...WITH AN INCH OR MORE PER HOUR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING RUSH. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF
LATE THIS EVENING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WARNING AREA.

* MAIN IMPACT...THE SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES...ALLOWING SNOW TO
QUICKLY ACCUMULATE ON AREA ROADS...MAKING TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS.
STRONG WINDS WILL FURTHER REDUCE THE VISIBILITY IN HEAVY SNOW.

* OTHER IMPACTS...DUE TO THE HIGH LIQUID CONTENT OF THE SNOW...
THOSE WITH HEALTH CONCERNS SHOULD USE CAUTION WHEN SHOVELING.
THE HEAVY WET SNOW MAY ALSO LEAD TO WEIGHTED DOWN BRANCHES AND
POWER LINES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE
EXPECTED. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL
VERY HAZARDOUS.

&&

Mesoscale Discussion 11:07:04.3962375

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MO...ERN IA...NRN IL...SRN WI

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 021706Z - 022100Z

MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES NEAR 1 INCH AN HOUR WILL DEVELOP
LATE THIS MORNING ACROSS ERN IA...PROGRESSING NEWD INTO NRN IL AND
SRN WI THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

A BAND OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL IS BEGINNING TO BECOME MORE WELL DEFINED
ACROSS ERN IA...INTERSECTING A BROAD MOIST SECTOR TO THE EAST AND
COLDER POST-FRONTAL AIR ADVECTING SEWD FROM THE NORTHWEST. MODERATE
SNOW HAS OCCASIONALLY BEEN REPORTED FROM KANSAS CITY NEWD TO OTTUMWA
IA. DRY LOW LEVELS NOTED ON 12Z AREA SOUNDINGS IS LIKELY HINDERING
HEAVIER RATES ATTM...THOUGH GRADUAL MOISTENING WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT AN AMALGAMATION OF SNOWFLAKES. AS SUCH...RATES MAY BRIEFLY
INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS BAND
WILL PIVOT EWD...LEADING TO A RATHER TRANSITORY THREAT OF HEAVY
SNOWFALL RATES FOR PORTIONS OF NERN MO AND ERN IA. HOWEVER...LATER
TODAY...THE COMBINATION OF VERY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS
AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT/REDEVELOPMENT OF A MORE PRIMARY BAND OF HEAVY
SNOW...FROM ERN IA...NRN IL AND INTO SRN WI.

..HURLBUT.. 03/02/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX...DMX...
EAX...

LAT...LON 43589060 43958932 43868855 43708831 43008784 42208810
41588963 40549073 39629200 39899261 41069254 42839125
43589060

Public Severe Weather Outlook 10:59:05.3914954

...AN OUTBREAK OF TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS LIKELY OVER
A LARGE AREA FROM INDIANA AND OHIO INTO
KENTUCKY...TENNESSEE...MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG...LONG-TRACK TORNADOES OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN INDIANA...SOUTHERN AND WESTERN OHIO...MUCH OF KENTUCKY AND
NORTHERN TENNESSEE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ALABAMA
NORTHERN GEORGIA
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INDIANA
ALL OF KENTUCKY
MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN OHIO
MUCH OF TENNESSEE

ELSEWHERE...SEVERE STORMS AND TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN ALABAMA AND NORTHERN
GEORGIA...NORTHWARD INTO OHIO.

A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO SPREAD OUT OF
LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY...IN ADVANCE OF A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW
OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS INDIANA AND INTO LOWER MICHIGAN BY THIS EVENING...ALLOWING
THE MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO REPLACE COOL AIR CURRENTLY OVER
NORTHERN KENTUCKY...INDIANA AND OHIO. SEVERE STORMS HAVE ALREADY
DEVELOPED ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI AND
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...AND WILL INTENSIFY AS THEY DEVELOP EASTWARD
TODAY. WIND SHEAR PROFILES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY STRONG AND
FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE WINDS. THE STRENGTH OF THE
STEERING CURRENTS WILL ALLOW FOR FAST MOVING AND LONG TRACKED
TORNADOES...WHICH ARE PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS. THE MAIN THREAT AREA
WILL BE OVER THE HIGH RISK AREA...INCLUDING MUCH OF SOUTHERN
INDIANA...MUCH OF KENTUCKY...NORTHERN TENNESSEE...AND SOUTHWESTERN
OHIO.

ANOTHER AREA OF SEVERE STORMS IS ALSO EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA INTO
NORTHERN GEORGIA...ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS
WILL NOT BE QUITE AS FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES COMPARED TO FARTHER
NORTH IN THE HIGH RISK AREA...BUT STORMS WILL BECOME NUMEROUS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND TORNADOES STILL POSSIBLE.

STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING THIS POTENTIALLY
VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO
REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO
RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE
WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.

..JEWELL.. 03/02/2012

Winter Storm Warning 10:30:13.3743487

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO
LONGER IN EFFECT.

* TIMING...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE
SNOW WILL IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY AT TIMES...WITH AN INCH OR
MORE PER HOUR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING RUSH. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING BEFORE
TAPERING OFF.

* ACCUMULATIONS...TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WARNING AREA.

* MAIN IMPACT...THE SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. THIS WILL ALLOW
SNOW TO QUICKLY ACCUMULATE ON AREA ROADS MAKING TRAVEL HAZARDS BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.

* OTHER IMPACTS...DUE TO THE HIGH LIQUID CONTENT OF THE SNOW...
THOSE WITH HEALTH CONCERNS SHOULD USE CAUTION WHEN SHOVELING.
THE HEAVY WET SNOW MAY ALSO LEAD TO WEIGHTED DOWN BRANCHES AND
POWER LINES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE
EXPECTED. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL
VERY HAZARDOUS.

&&

Mesoscale Discussion 10:03:49.3586671

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF E CNTRL IL...CNTRL INDIANA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 55...

VALID 021602Z - 021730Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 55
CONTINUES.

PORTIONS OF WW HAVE ALREADY BEEN UPGRADED TO A TORNADO WATCH. AREAS
FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR ADDITIONAL WWS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

AS THE DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE ST. LOUIS MO
AREA INTO NORTHEAST INDIANA BETWEEN NOW AND 19-21Z...AN AREA OF
ENHANCED WARM ADVECTION ALONG A NORTHEASTWARD ADVANCING WARM FRONT
TO ITS EAST MAY BECOME OF FOCUS FOR INCREASING SEVERE POTENTIAL
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS MAY IMPACT THE MATTOON/CHARLESTON
AND TERRE HAUTE AREAS AS EARLY AS 18Z-19Z...BEFORE DEVELOPING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. RAPID BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG SHEAR...INCLUDING LARGE
CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS... WILL SUPPORT INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING THE RISK FOR
PARTICULARLY STRONG AND DAMAGING TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO A
CONTINUING RISK FOR LARGE HAIL.

..KERR.. 03/02/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...

LAT...LON 39378869 40168828 40658714 40048614 39148581 38968688
38978824 39378869

Public Severe Weather Outlook 07:27:43.2659437

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
INDIANA...CENTRAL KENTUCKY...AND NORTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG...LONG-TRACK TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF THE
EXTREME SOUTHERN INDIANA...CENTRAL KENTUCKY...AND NORTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

ALABAMA
GEORGIA
ILLINOIS
INDIANA
KENTUCKY
MISSISSIPPI
OHIO
TENNESSEE

ELSEWHERE...SEVERE STORMS AND TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM EAST
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN ALABAMA AND
NORTHERN GEORGIA...NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST OHIO.

MORNING WEATHER DATA CONFIRM A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD FROM ARKANSAS AND TENNESSEE TOWARD THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY...IN ADVANCE OF A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IN MISSOURI. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE TOWARD SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN BY THIS EVENING...ALLOWING THE MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO
SPREAD TO NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER PRIOR TO THE PASSAGE
OF A COLD FRONT. SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG AND IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT BY MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON...AT THE SAME
TIME THE WINDS THROUGH ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME VERY
STRONG. THESE FACTORS WILL RESULT IN A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR
FAST-MOVING TORNADIC STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LONG-TRACK/DAMAGING
TORNADOES IN THE HIGH RISK AREA OF EXTREME SOUTHERN
INDIANA...CENTRAL KENTUCKY...AND NORTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS
AFTERNOON.

A SEPARATE BAND OR TWO OF SEVERE STORMS IS ALSO EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND
ALABAMA INTO NORTHERN GEORGIA...ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES COMPARED TO
FARTHER NORTH IN THE HIGH RISK...BUT MULTIPLE SEVERE STORMS WITH A
FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING THIS POTENTIALLY
VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO
REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO
RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE
WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.

..THOMPSON.. 03/02/2012

Winter Storm Watch 04:43:15.1682505

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING...

* TIMING...RAIN WILL TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS...WITH THE TRANSITION LINE
FROM RAIN TO SNOW SPREADING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THE SNOW SHOULD COME TO AN
END BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

* ACCUMULATIONS...STORM TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE. THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD BE NORTH OF A LINE FROM
POLO...TO KIRKLAND...TO MCHENRY...INCLUDING THE ROCKFORD METRO
AREA.

* HAZARDS...THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS LIKELY TO FALL DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...WHEN SNOWFALL RATES OF UP
TO ONE INCH PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE. ROADS WILL BECOME SNOW
COVERED AND DIFFICULT TO MAINTAIN IF THESE SNOWFALL RATES
MATERIALIZE. TRAVEL ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS WILL BECOME
DIFFICULT AND PERHAPS DANGEROUS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

&&

Public Severe Weather Outlook 03:11:10.1135530

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG...LONG-TRACK TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ALABAMA
NORTHERN GEORGIA
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
SOUTHERN INDIANA
KENTUCKY
EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
SOUTHWEST OHIO
TENNESSEE
WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA

ELSEWHERE...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER OVER KANSAS...OKLAHOMA...AND MISSOURI THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD TO LOWER MICHIGAN BY THIS
EVENING...WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT PROGRESSES EASTWARD INTO THE
OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS. MOISTURE WILL SPREAD QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD
FROM THE SOUTHERN STATES TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY THIS AFTERNOON IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT...PROVIDING THE FUEL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION...WINDS AND ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK
AREA...SETTING THE STAGE FOR LONG-LIVED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

THE MOST DANGEROUS TORNADO RISK AREA IS EXPECTED FROM MIDDLE AND
EASTERN TENNESSEE NORTHWARD ACROSS KENTUCKY TO THE OHIO RIVER THIS
AFTERNOON...WHERE A FEW LONG-TRACK/DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. FARTHER SOUTH
INTO MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT
IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. THESE STORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA AND NORTHERN GEORGIA THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH AN ACCOMPANYING RISK FOR TORNADOES...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL.

STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING THIS DEVELOPING
SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE
WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA
WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER
TODAY.

..THOMPSON.. 03/02/2012

Winter Storm Watch 21:02:14.7497666

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING.

* TIMING...RAIN WILL TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES OVERNIGHT.

* ACCUMULATIONS...STORM TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE.

* HAZARDS...THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS LIKELY TO FALL FROM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...WHEN SNOWFALL RATES OF
UP TO ONE INCH PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE. ROADS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED
AND DIFFICULT TO MAINTAIN IF THESE SNOWFALL RATES MATERIALIZE.
TRAVEL ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS WILL BECOME DIFFICULT AND
PERHAPS DANGEROUS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

&&

Special Weather Statement 16:10:02.5761998

...A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

A POTENT STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO SOUTHWESTERN MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. ALTHOUGH THE PRECIPITATION MAY INITIALLY BEGIN AS
RAIN...IT APPEARS THAT COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD PORTIONS OF THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING THE RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. AS THIS TRANSITION TO SNOW OCCURS...THERE
COULD BE A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR
NORTHERN ILLINOIS LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW...THE SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE
QUICKLY...LEADING TO HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...DUE TO
THE COMPLEXITY OF THE STORM SYSTEM...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON WHERE
THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR.

Flood Potential Outlook 10:34:53.3771207

...2012 SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK NUMBER 2...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR STREAMS WITHIN THE NWS CHICAGO HYDROLOGIC
SERVICE AREA...WHICH INCLUDES ILLINOIS RIVER TRIBUTARIES IN
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. IT INCLUDES THE ILLINOIS
RIVER DOWN TO LA SALLE. IT ALSO INCLUDES STREAMS WITHIN THE ROCK
RIVER BASIN IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND THE ROCK RIVER FROM
ROCKTON DOWN TO DIXON ILLINOIS. THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TIME PERIOD
FROM MARCH THROUGH EARLY JUNE.

...OUTLOOK BRIEF SUMMARY...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE OCCURRED IN THE FLOOD POTENTIAL SINCE
THE FIRST OUTLOOK.

THIS WINTER HAS BEEN NOTED FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT SNOW. BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AT THE TIME THIS
OUTLOOK WAS RELEASED...THE RISK FOR MINOR FLOODING IS BELOW
NORMAL FOR STREAMS IN THE ROCK RIVER BASIN IN ILLINOIS. THE RISK FOR
MINOR FLOODING RANGES FROM NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL WITHIN
PORTIONS OF THE KANKAKEE RIVER BASIN. ELSEWHERE FOR TRIBUTARIES
WITHIN THE UPPER ILLINOIS BASIN...THE RISK FOR MINOR FLOODING IS
NEAR NORMAL. THE RISK FOR MINOR FLOODING ON THE ILLINOIS RIVER
MAINSTEM FROM MORRIS TO LA SALLE IS NEAR NORMAL. THE AMOUNT OF
RAINFALL OR ADDITIONAL SNOW AND SUBSEQUENT SNOWMELT IN THE COMING
WEEKS WILL DETERMINE THE SEVERITY OF ANY FUTURE FLOODING.

THIS SPRING OUTLOOK IS BASED ON HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS INCLUDING THE
CURRENT SOIL MOISTURE...SNOWPACK...AND STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS AT THE
TIME OF ISSUANCE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS CAN
CHANGE RAPIDLY DURING LATE WINTER AND EARLY SPRING. THESE OUTLOOKS
ARE ISSUED EACH LATE WINTER AND EARLY SPRING IN ADDITION TO THE 7
DAY RIVER FORECASTS THAT ARE ISSUED WHEN RIVER FORECAST LOCATIONS
ARE IN FLOOD OR ARE FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.

...CURRENT SNOW COVER AND LIQUID WATER EQUIVALENT...
A LATE WINTER STORM DEPOSITED BETWEEN 5 AND 10 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES IN ILLINOIS FEBRUARY 23 AND 24. THE
GREATEST SNOW DEPTHS WERE IN THE UPPER FOX...UPPER DES PLAINES...AND
UPPER ROCK RIVER WATERSHEDS. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS WERE BETWEEN 0.5
AND 1 INCH. RAIN AND WARMER TEMPERATURES HAVE SINCE MELTED OFF THE
MAJORITY OF THAT SNOW WITH ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS REMAINING IN SHELTERED
AREAS.

...PAST PRECIPITATION AND SOIL CONDITIONS...
PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PAST FALL ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND
NORTHWEST INDIANA WAS NEAR NORMAL AND TEMPERATURES AVERAGED ABOVE
NORMAL. THIS PAST WINTER HAS SEEN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
LESS THAN NORMAL SNOWFALL...ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION WAS NEAR NORMAL
DUE TO SEVERAL RAIN EVENTS. SOIL MOISTURE WAS NEAR NORMAL.

...RIVER CONDITIONS...
STREAMFLOW ON AREA RIVERS WAS NEAR NORMAL ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS
AND NORTHWEST INDIANA.

NWS CHICAGO RIVER ICE SPOTTERS REPORTED THAT NO ICE WAS PRESENT ON
AREA STREAMS AS OF FEB 27. NO ICE JAM FLOODING ISSUES HAVE BEEN
EXPERIENCED THIS PAST WINTER.

...WEATHER OUTLOOKS...
THE SIX TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID MARCH 4 TO MARCH 9 INDICATES THAT
CONDITIONS MAY TREND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND
TEMPERATURES. THE LONG RANGE OUTLOOK FOR MARCH INDICATES
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION.

...FLOOD POTENTIAL SUMMARY...
BASED ON THE CURRENT SOIL MOISTURE...CURRENT STREAMFLOW...FROST
DEPTHS...SNOWPACK CONDITIONS...THE RISK FOR MINOR FLOODING IS
BELOW NORMAL FOR STREAMS IN THE ROCK RIVER BASIN IN
ILLINOIS. THE RISK FOR MINOR FLOODING RANGES FROM NEAR NORMAL TO
ABOVE NORMAL WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE KANKAKEE RIVER BASIN. ELSEWHERE
FOR TRIBUTARIES WITHIN THE UPPER ILLINOIS BASIN...THE RISK FOR MINOR
FLOODING IS NEAR NORMAL. THE RISK FOR MINOR FLOODING ON THE ILLINOIS
MAINSTEM FROM MORRIS TO LA SALLE IS NEAR NORMAL. THE AMOUNT OF
RAINFALL OR ADDITIONAL SNOW AND SUBSEQUENT SNOWMELT IN THE COMING
WEEKS WILL DETERMINE THE SEVERITY OF ANY FUTURE FLOODING.

...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR
FLOODING...AND DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL OF REACHING FLOOD STAGE...

...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
THE VALUES IN THE TABLE BELOW ARE VALID 3/5/2012 TO 6/3/2012.

-----------FLOOD STAGE----------- DEPARTURE
LOCATION MINOR MODERATE MAJOR FROM NORMAL
STG PCT STG PCT STG PCT OF REACHING
FLOOD STAGE
PECATONICA RIVER
SHIRLAND IL 12.0 19% 15.0 --- 17.0 --- 16% LESS
ROCK RIVER
ROCKTON IL 10.0 13% 11.0 8% 14.0 --- 16% LESS
LATHAM PARK IL 10.0 11% 11.0 6% 14.0 --- 13% LESS
KISHWAUKEE RIVER
BELVIDERE IL 9.0 8% 11.0 1% 12.0 1% NEAR NORMAL
S BR KISHWAUKEE
DEKALB IL 10.0 4% 11.0 1% 12.5 --- NEAR NORMAL
KISHWAUKEE RIVER
PERRYVILLE IL 12.0 27% 18.0 1% 22.0 --- NEAR NORMAL
ROCK RIVER
BYRON IL 13.0 11% 16.0 1% 18.0 1% NEAR NORMAL
DIXON IL 16.0 6% 18.0 4% 20.0 3% 9% LESS
KANKAKEE RIVER
DUNNS BRIDGE IN 10.0 23% 12.0 --- 13.0 --- 6% LESS
KOUTS IN 11.0 24% 13.0 --- 14.0 --- NEAR NORMAL
SHELBY IN 9.0 82% 11.0 31% 12.5 8% NEAR NORMAL
MOMENCE IL 5.0 23% 6.5 9% 9.0 1% 11% LESS
WILMINGTON IL 6.5 13% 8.0 6% 10.0 1% NEAR NORMAL
IROQUOIS RIVER
RENSSELAER IN 12.0 29% 14.0 6% 15.0 4% 9% LESS
FORESMAN IN 18.0 19% 22.0 3% 24.0 --- NEAR NORMAL
IROQUOIS IL 18.0 47% 24.0 3% 25.0 1% NEAR NORMAL
CHEBANSE IL 16.0 13% 18.0 4% 20.0 3% NEAR NORMAL
SUGAR CREEK
MILFORD IL 18.0 42% 22.0 9% 26.0 3% NEAR NORMAL
DES PLAINES RIVER
RUSSELL IL 7.0 55% 9.0 1% 10.0 1% NEAR NORMAL
GURNEE IL 7.0 29% 9.0 3% 11.0 --- NEAR NORMAL
LINCOLNSHIRE IL 11.0 14% 14.0 3% 15.5 1% NEAR NORMAL
DES PLAINES IL 5.0 19% 8.0 --- 9.0 --- NEAR NORMAL
RIVERSIDE IL 7.0 23% 8.0 4% 9.0 --- NEAR NORMAL
ROMEOVILLE IL 12.5 34% 13.0 8% 13.5 --- NEAR NORMAL
E BR DUPAGE RIVER
BOLINGBROOK IL 19.5 37% 21.0 3% 23.0 --- NEAR NORMAL
DU PAGE RIVER
SHOREWOOD IL 6.5 9% 8.0 --- 10.0 --- NEAR NORMAL
MAZON RIVER
COAL CITY IL 12.0 9% 14.0 --- 17.0 --- 6% LESS
FOX RIVER
ALGONQUIN TW 9.5 36% 10.5 14% 12.0 11% 8% LESS
MONTGOMERY IL 13.0 41% 14.0 6% 15.0 --- 7% LESS
DAYTON IL 12.0 32% 14.0 11% 24.0 --- 10% LESS
VERMILION RIVER
PONTIAC IL 14.0 11% 15.0 8% 18.0 --- 6% LESS
LEONORE IL 16.0 36% 21.0 4% 26.0 --- NEAR NORMAL
THORN CREEK
THORNTON IL 10.0 18% 15.0 --- 16.0 --- 6% LESS
LITTLE CALUMET R
MUNSTER IN 12.0 31% 14.0 14% 17.0 3% 9% LESS
SOUTH HOLLAND IL 16.5 --- 18.0 --- 20.0 --- NA
HART DITCH
DYER IN 12.0 3% 13.0 3% 14.0 --- NEAR NORMAL
ILLINOIS RIVER
MORRIS IL 16.0 29% 18.0 18% 22.0 3% 9% LESS
OTTAWA IL 463.0 23% 466.0 11% 469.0 3% 9% LESS
LA SALLE IL 20.0 70% 27.0 9% 31.0 1% NEAR NORMAL

IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE
THE CHANCE THAT A LOCATION ON A RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED
STAGE LEVELS DURING THE INDICATED PERIOD.

FOR EXAMPLE: THE KANKAKEE RIVER AT WILMINGTON HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF
6.5 FEET. THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE THE RIVER WILL RISE TO 5.1
FEET OR ABOVE.

LOCATION FS (FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
-------- ------- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
KANKAKEE RIVER
DUNNS BRIDGE 10.0 7.1 8.0 8.4 8.7 9.0 9.5 9.7 10.2 10.5
KOUTS 11.0 8.3 9.1 9.6 9.9 10.1 10.7 10.8 11.3 11.6
SHELBY 9.0 8.1 9.3 9.5 10.0 10.4 10.8 11.0 11.5 12.2
MOMENCE 5.0 3.3 3.5 3.8 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.9 5.2 6.8
WILMINGTON 6.5 3.1 3.8 4.5 4.8 5.1 5.4 5.6 6.0 6.9

SUGAR CREEK
MILFORD 18.0 13.1 16.5 17.1 17.3 17.6 18.1 19.2 20.0 22.1

IROQUOIS RIVER
RENSSELAER 12.0 8.5 9.6 10.1 11.0 11.3 11.6 12.0 12.6 13.8
FORESMAN 18.0 12.9 14.0 14.5 15.3 16.3 16.5 17.5 18.1 19.0
IROQUOIS 18.0 12.9 15.0 15.6 16.5 17.8 19.1 20.6 21.2 22.1
CHEBANSE 16.0 8.8 9.4 10.3 11.0 12.0 12.4 13.6 15.1 16.4

DES PLAINES RIVER
RUSSELL 7.0 5.8 6.2 6.5 7.0 7.2 7.3 7.5 7.6 7.9
GURNEE 7.0 4.2 4.6 4.9 5.3 5.7 6.5 7.0 7.4 7.8
DES PLAINES 5.0 1.7 2.0 2.2 2.5 2.9 3.5 4.3 5.0 6.5
LINCOLNSHIRE 12.5 8.9 9.4 9.7 10.1 10.4 11.2 11.9 12.2 13.1
RIVERSIDE 7.0 3.8 4.3 4.9 5.3 5.9 6.3 6.5 7.0 7.3

FOX RIVER
ALGONQUIN TAILW 9.5 7.5 7.9 8.2 8.7 9.0 9.4 9.7 10.3 12.4
MONTGOMERY 13.0 12.2 12.5 12.6 12.7 12.9 13.0 13.2 13.4 13.9
DAYTON 12.0 8.2 9.2 9.9 10.9 11.4 11.6 12.3 12.8 14.5

EAST BR DU PAGE RIVER
BOLINGBROOK 19.5 17.9 18.3 18.6 18.8 19.2 19.4 19.8 20.1 20.5

DU PAGE RIVER
SHOREWOOD 6.5 4.1 4.5 4.8 5.1 5.3 5.5 5.9 6.1 6.5

MAZON RIVER
COAL CITY 12.0 4.2 5.9 6.8 7.9 9.0 9.7 10.2 10.8 12.5

VERMILION RIVER
PONTIAC 14.0 5.7 6.4 7.3 8.3 9.3 9.9 12.0 13.3 14.8
LEONORE 16.0 8.6 9.7 11.6 12.7 13.8 15.5 16.8 17.9 20.1

THORN CREEK
THORNTON 10.0 5.0 5.8 6.6 7.0 7.7 8.3 9.0 9.9 11.2

HART DITCH
DYER 12.0 4.2 4.5 4.9 5.3 5.7 6.1 6.6 7.1 7.7

LITTLE CALUMET RIVER
MUNSTER 12.0 9.2 9.7 10.2 10.6 10.9 11.5 12.1 12.8 14.6
SOUTH HOLLAND 16.5 9.5 10.7 11.3 11.8 12.1 12.8 13.5 14.0 14.7

ILLINOIS RIVER
MORRIS 16.0 8.1 10.1 12.7 13.5 14.2 15.1 16.2 17.7 20.0
OTTAWA 463.0

LA SALLE 20.0 14.8 17.7 20.4 21.9 22.8 23.1 24.1 25.2 27.7

KISHWAUKEE RIVER
BELVIDERE 9.0 3.7 4.1 4.7 5.1 5.9 6.5 7.0 8.5 9.0
PERRYVILLE 12.0 8.2 8.8 9.5 10.0 10.5 11.1 11.8 12.3 13.7

SOUTH BRANCH KISHWAUKEE RIVER
DE KALB 10.0 4.8 5.4 5.9 6.7 6.9 7.7 8.4 9.1 9.6

ROCK RIVER
ROCKTON 10.0 5.4 5.7 6.2 6.5 7.0 8.0 8.7 9.5 10.9
LATHAM PARK 10.0 5.8 5.9 6.4 6.6 7.1 7.9 8.5 9.2 10.5
ROCKFORD 9.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.6 3.8 4.0 4.7
BYRON 13.0 8.0 8.5 8.9 9.2 9.9 10.5 11.2 12.2 13.2
DIXON 16.0 10.3 10.7 11.1 11.4 12.1 12.6 13.2 14.3 15.4

PECATONICA RIVER
SHIRLAND 12.0 8.0 8.2 8.6 9.1 9.8 10.5 11.5 12.0 13.2

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO OFFICE IN ROMEOVILLE ISSUES LONG
RANGE AHPS OUTLOOKS FOR ALL RIVER FORECAST LOCATIONS. THIS PRODUCT IS
UPDATED MONTHLY AROUND MID-MONTH. THESE OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED IN
ADDITION TO THE 5 DAY RIVER FORECASTS THAT ARE ISSUED WHEN RIVER
FORECAST LOCATIONS ARE IN FLOOD OR FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE.

THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER...
SOIL MOISTURE...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION.

BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILISTIC NUMBERS...THE LEVEL
OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE
DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE.

VISIT OUR WEB PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO FOR MORE WEATHER AND RIVER
INFORMATION INCLUDING GRAPHS OF PROBABILISTIC RIVER OUTLOOKS.

...FLOOD TERMINOLOGY...

MINOR FLOODING IS USED TO INDICATE MINIMAL OR NO PROPERTY
DAMAGE. HOWEVER SOME PUBLIC INCONVENIENCE IS POSSIBLE.

MODERATE FLOODING IS USED TO INDICATE THE INUNDATION OF SECONDARY
ROADS. TRANSFER TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY BE NECESSARY TO SAVE
PROPERTY. SOME EVACUATIONS MAY BE REQUIRED.

MAJOR FLOODING IS USED TO INDICATE EXTENSIVE INUNDATION AND PROPERTY
DAMAGE USUALLY CHARACTERIZED BY EVACUATION OF PEOPLE AND LIVESTOCK
AND CLOSURE OF BOTH PRIMARY AND SECONDARY ROADS.

VISIT OUR WEB PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO FOR MORE WEATHER AND RIVER
INFORMATION INCLUDING GRAPHS OF PROBABILISTIC RIVER OUTLOOKS.

THIS WILL BE THE LAST SCHEDULED OUTLOOK. ANOTHER OUTLOOK MAY BE
ISSUED ON MARCH 22 IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

NATIONAL FLOOD AWARENESS WEEK WILL BE MARCH 12 TO MARCH 16 2012.