344 AM CST
EARLY THIS MORNING THE LLVL VORT MAX CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST
TOWARDS HUDSON BAY. A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHERN IL...INTO
NORTHERN MO. THIS BOUNDARY WILL TRANSITION INTO A QUASI-STATIONARY
BOUNDARY OVER THE NEXT 24HR AND BE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BEFORE
LIFTING NORTH. IR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING ALSO INDICATES
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS STRETCHING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH A
STEADY SURGE OF LOW/MID LVL MOISTURE ACROSS MISSOURI STRETCHING
SOUTH THROUGH NORTHERN TEXAS. WITH THE ABUNDANCE OF CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED MILD IN THE LOW/MID 50S
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL IL. A SLUG OF PRECIP HAS
OVERSPREAD PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IL EARLY THIS MORNING AND CONTINUES
TO SLIDE EAST. BASED ON THE IR/WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...ANOTHER SLUG
OF MOISTURE WAS OVER OK/AR/MO AND STREAMING NORTH/NORTHEAST.
SREF 850MB V-WIND...OR MOISTURE TRANSPORT...INDICATES THAT THE FEED
OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST THIS MORNING AND
SHOULD PUSH OVER THE SOUTHERN CWFA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
INDIANA. LATER THIS AFTN AN ANOMALOUS EASTERLY LLVL JET AT 850MB IS
PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...STRETCHING EAST LATE
THIS AFTN EARLY EVE INTO PORTIONS OF IOWA/NORTHERN IL.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REMAIN MILD WITH THE ALREADY MILD START...IN
THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
CWFA SHOULD REMAIN DRY THRU MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY.
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST ELONGATES AND STRETCHES
EAST THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE IS THE
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT WILL SERVE AS A FOCAL POINT OVER THE
NEXT 36 HOURS FOR A STEADY MOISTURE FEED AND POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ANOMALOUS LLVL EASTERLY
JET...U-WIND OF 3 SIGMA...PROGGED BY THE SREF MEMBERS SHOULD
DISSOLVE BY 06Z TUE AS THE V-WIND COMPONENT INDICATES A
STRENGTHENING MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO OUR REGION. THIS COUPLED WITH
PWAT VALUES AT 3 TO 4 SIGMA OR AROUND 1.5 INCHES...ALONG WITH VERY
MINIMAL SPREAD AMONGST ENSEMBLES/OPERATIONAL MEMBERS...INDICATES
PRECIP IS ALMOST A SURE BET. ONE CONCERN WILL BE THE PRECISE TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY AND TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE. CURRENT
SOLUTIONS HAVE THE VORT TAKING A PATH THROUGH MISSOURI AND LIFTING
NORTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN WED AFTN. IF THE DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION CAN MAINTAIN THE CURRENT STRENGTH
THAT MAY AID IN STEERING THIS SYSTEM FURTHER NORTHWEST. DESPITE
GETTING CLOSER IN TIME...MODELS ARE EXPECTED TO SHOW SOME
CORRECTIONS OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS BEFORE FINALLY GETTING A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE PRECISE PATH.
WITH THE CURRENT AND EXPECTED PATH ELEVATED INSTABILITY LOOKS
PROBABLE. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A STRONG CORE OF WINDS AT
850MB PUSHING NEARLY 50KTS TUE. WITH MINIMAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
SHIELD...EXPECT ANY CONVECTION TO BE ELEVATED AND REMAIN JUST A
CHANCE. WITH THE EXPECTED FORCING/DYNAMICS...IT WAS PRUDENT TO LEAVE
MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE GOING FORECAST FOR TUE.
500MB TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO PIVOT EAST ACROSS IOWA LATE TUE NIGHT
AS THE SFC LOW STEADILY LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF
LAKE MICHIGAN. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...SOME CORRECTIONS TO THE
PRECISE PATH OF THE SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO CORRECT. GUIDANCE ALSO
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A DEVELOPING DRY-SLOT AND MAY AID IN BRINGING
AND END TO PRECIP SLIGHTLY EARLIER EARLY WED MORNING FROM WEST TO
EAST AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST. 850MB THERMAL TROUGH ARRIVES WED
MORNING WITH TEMPS ALOFT FALLING INTO THE -3 TO -6 DEG RANGE.
ISALLOBARIC PRES CHG LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR BREEZY CONDS. WITH
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH OF WED BEFORE MUCH DRIER AIR
ARRIVES...TEMPS WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH. THUS HAVE OPTED TO NOT UTILIZE
A DIURNAL CURVE. EXPECT TEMPS TO BEGIN FALLING BY MIDDAY POSSIBLY
EARLY AFTN WED INTO THE LOW/MID 40S.
ENOUGH DRY AIR SHOULD BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE LAND
LOCATIONS...HOWEVER OVER LAKE MICHIGAN THE LAKE SFC/850MB TEMP
DIFFERENCE SHOULD BE LARGE ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE FORMATION OF LAKE
INDUCED CLOUDS PRECIP. TEMPS MAY EVEN BE COOL ENOUGH TO ALLOW WET
SNOW TO MIX WITH RAIN.
AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO POUR INTO THE CWFA WED
EVENING...TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S WITH A
FEW LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 20S.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO INDICATE A RATHER HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
EXTENDED PERIODS WITH RESPECT TO A TROUGH PIVOTING EAST THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...STRETCHING SOUTH THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
THURSDAY. FURTHER UPSTREAM TOWARDS THE PAC-NW...A POTENT 500MB
ANOMALOUS TROUGH AT 3 TO 4 SIGMA IS PROGGED TO SLIDE SOUTH ALONG THE
WESTERN CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL AID IN AMPLIFICATION OF A
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/PLAINS STATES LATE
THUR...THEN STEADILY PUSH EAST FRI ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION/OHIO VALLEY.
BEYOND FRI AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE SUGGESTING A REDUCTION IN THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS TIME FRAME.
THE MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST THAT DRY AIR WILL LINGER
THROUGH SAT FOR THE REGION WITH THE WEAKENING INFLUENCE OF THE LLVL
RIDGE. THEN THE AFOREMENTIONED POTENT TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE
FOUR-CORNERS REGION OF THE CONUS. THIS PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST THAT
RETURN FLOW MOISTURE SHOULD KICK-IN LATE IN THE WEEKEND...WITH
DECENT ENERGY ROUNDING THE TROUGH AXIS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. IF
THIS SCENARIO VERIFIES THE END OF THE WEEKEND COULD BE A STEADY
RAMP-UP TOWARDS MILD/CONVECTIVE WEATHER.
DESPITE ANOMALOUSLY COOL TEMPERATURES THUR IN THE 40S...THE 850MB
THERMAL TROUGH QUICKLY DEPARTS WITH A STEADY WARMING TREND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. AFTN TEMPS BY SAT/SUN COULD EASILY BE BACK INTO THE 50S
POSSIBLY LOW 60S SUN.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* BRIEF PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TODAY...OUTSIDE CHANCE OF REDUCED
VSBY.
* TREND TOWARD MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH ONSET OF MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.
LENNING
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
FRONT EXTENDS FROM SW LOWER MI ACROSS CHI METRO AREA TO NE MO
EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH CONTINUED PRESSURE RISES TO THE N-NW OF
THE AREA EXPECT THIS BOUNDARY TO CONTINUE ITS VERY SLOW SAG
SOUTHWARD TODAY BEFORE STARTING TO RETREAT BACK TO THE N AS A
WARM FRONT LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
AS THE FRONT AS SLOWLY SHIFTED S OVERNIGHT THE MVFR STRATOCU
CEILINGS ALONG THE BOUNDARY HAVE ALSO SHIFTED S AS MUCH DRIER
LOW LEVEL AIR...32F AT RFD VS 52F AT PNT...MAKE A GRADUAL PUSH
ACROSS NE IL. MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT OF CHI AREA
MID-LATE MORNING WITH VFR REST OF DAY TIL MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES ARRIVE WITH WIDESPREAD RA LATE TONIGHT.
AREA OF SHOWERS HAS MOVED FROM NE MO TO W CENTRAL IL LAST FEW
HOURS. THESE SHOWERS ARE N OF THE MAIN BAND OF RA AND ARE
DECREASING IN COVERAGE AS THEY MOVE OVER INCREASINGLY DRY LOW
LEVEL AIR ACROSS NW AND N CENTRAL IL. A SMALL CHANCE OF A BRIEF
-SHRA AT CHI TERMINALS MID-LATE MORNING BUT WOULD BE
INCONSEQUENTIAL IF THEY WERE TO OCCUR.
AS THE UPPER TROF CURRENTLY OVER THE SW DESERT REGION MOVES E
TODAY AND TONIGHT THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WITH LARGE SCALE OVER-RUNNING RA EVENTUALLY SPREADING
ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LIFTS SLOWLY BACK NORTHWARD. FAIRLY STRONG HI PRES TO REMAIN
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AS THE LOW TREKS NORTHEASTWARD AND
ANTICIPATE E-NE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TONIGHT IN
RESPONSE.
MODELS SUGGEST THAT ANY SIGNIFICANT RA WILL REMAIN S OF THE
IMMEDIATE CHI AREA TIL LATE EVE AND OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT WILL
BE TOO FAR S AND DRY LOW LEVEL AIR WILL NEED TO BE OVERCOME.
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THERE MAY BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS
EMBEDDED IN THE RAIN BAND AS STRONGEST FORCING OVERSPREAD THE
LOCAL AREA. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT FAR OUT IN TIME TO INCLUDE
MENTION IN 12Z TAFORS.
TRS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CIGS TODAY...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN VFR VSBYS.
* MEDIUM TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN CIG/VSBY TRENDS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
LENNING
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
TUE NIGHT...MVFR...PERIODS OF IFR. RA WITH A CHANCE OF TS.
WED...MVFR BECOMING VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
THU...VFR. WX NIL.
FRI...VFR. WX NIL.
SAT...VFR. WX NIL.
SUN...VFR. CHANCE SHRA.
TRS
&&
.MARINE...
323 AM CST
WINDS HAVE GRADUALLY BEEN TRENDING DOWN THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS...MORE SO OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE
WHERE HIGH PRESSURE IS BEGINNING TO ENCROACH FROM THE SOUTH.
ACROSS THE NORTH...BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE STILL BEING OBSERVED BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER AS THE LOW OVER ONTARIO CONTINUES TO LIFT
AWAY FROM THE REGION. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM OF CONCERN WILL
BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...AND QUICKLY LIFT NORTHEAST REACHING LAKE MICHIGAN LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MODEST DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS LOW...THUS THE IS A FAIR DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING THE WIND SHIFTS AND WIND MAGNITUDES. DOES
APPEAR THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN OR
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE LAKE TUESDAY WITH A BAND OF LIGHTER
WINDS...BUT WINDS SHOULD SHARPLY INCREASE TO THE SOUTH OR NORTH OF
THE FRONTAL ZONE. AS THE LOW PASSES NORTHEAST OF THE LAKE
WEDNESDAY...A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWITCH WINDS AROUND TO THE
NORTHWEST...WITH WINDS FURTHER INCREASING...AND LOW END GALES
POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL TREND BACK DOWN THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE ON FRIDAY. BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
