CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 141724Z - 141900Z
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS AND A TORNADO
WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED BY 18Z.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW CENTERED OVER CNTRL IL...WITH A WARM
FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS NRN INDIANA AND INTO NWRN OH. PRESSURE
FALLS HAVE ACCELERATED ALONG THE N OF THE WARM FRONT...WHICH IS
GRADUALLY SHIFTING NWD WITH LOW 60S DEWPOINTS NOW EXTENDING N OF
IND.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BOUNDARY LAYER CU FIELDS NOW
INCREASING NEAR THE LOW CENTER/WARM FRONT INTERSECTION...AND ALSO
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP A BIT SWWD ALONG THE DEVELOPING COLD FRONT.
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT MOST OF THE CIN HAS ERODED AS
WELL. WITH CONTINUED FORCING AND POCKETS OF HEATING...STORMS SHOULD
INITIATE SOON OVER CNTRL AND E CNTRL IL...MOVING QUICKLY EWD CROSS
INDIANA AND INTO WRN OH LATER TODAY.
DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS ARE VERY STRONG...AND EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES
ARE WELL IN EXCESS OF 300 M2/S2. WHILE SOME UPDRAFTS MAY STRUGGLE TO
REMAIN UPRIGHT INITIALLY...WITH TIME THEY ARE EXPECTED TO FORM INTO
MATURE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND. A STORM OR
TWO MAY RIDE RIGHT ALONG THE WARM FRONT...WITH A CORRIDOR OF
PARTICULARLY DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR TORNADOES POSSIBLE THERE.
..JEWELL.. 11/14/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...
LAT...LON 38898904 39828912 40998837 41238687 41598438 41518376
40938348 40008399 39538461 39048568 38838631 38698734
38578833 38898904
