Wednesday, April 17, 2013

Mesoscale Discussion 08:51:47.3158792

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MO/SRN IA INTO NRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 171349Z - 171445Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...HAIL IS EXPECTED TO BE THE INITIAL THREAT WITH ONGOING
STORMS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM FAR NERN KS THROUGH FAR NRN MO...SRN
IA TO NRN IL. CONCERN EXISTS FOR A POTENTIAL THREAT OF DAMAGING
WINDS DEVELOPING ENEWD ACROSS NRN MO/SRN IA INTO NRN IL THIS MORNING
INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WW MAY BE NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...AT 1330Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A BAND OF
TSTMS EXTENDING FROM FAR NERN KS THROUGH FAR NRN MO...SRN IA INTO
PARTS OF NRN IL. THIS ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED WELL NORTH OF A
SURFACE WARM FRONT WHICH BISECTED OK FROM SW-NE AND THEN ENEWD
ACROSS SRN MO. 12Z SOUNDINGS INVOF OF THIS ACTIVITY SUGGESTS THE
STORMS ARE LIKELY ROOTED BETWEEN 850-900 MB AND SUPPORTED BY A 50 KT
SWLY LLJ EXTENDING INTO ERN KS TO NRN MO PROVIDING A FEED OF MUCAPES
UP TO 2000 J/KG. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS.

ALTHOUGH CURRENT TSTMS ARE ELEVATED POSING MAINLY A HAIL
THREAT...WIND PROFILERS IN SRN KS AND VWP DATA IN NERN KS/NWRN MO
SUGGEST THE INVERSION IS FAIRLY SHALLOW...THOUGH DEEPER ACROSS NRN
IL. CONTINUED LOW LEVEL WAA...HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THIS REGION AS
THE WRN LONG WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EWD AND ANY LEAD MIDLEVEL IMPULSES/
SPEED MAXES SUGGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE MAINTAINED TODAY
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS. AN INCREASING
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF GREATER STORM
ORGANIZATION/CLUSTERS FORM AS SHEAR VECTORS ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE
INITIATING BOUNDARY SUPPORT LINEAR STRUCTURES.

..PETERS/KERR.. 04/17/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...

LAT...LON 40119530 40899468 41519192 41918948 41568813 40478789
39578923 39429180 39349465 40119530

Flood Statement 04:56:21.1760319

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
THE FOX RIVER AT ALGONQUIN TAILWATER.
* UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING.
* AT 430 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.9 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.5 FEET.
* RECENT ACTIVITY...FLOOD FORECASTS FOR ALGONQUIN WERE MOVED TO THIS
LOCATION ON JULY 5 2011. GAGE ZERO DATUM IS DIFFERENT FROM THE OLD
GAGE LOCATION. FLOOD AND ACTION STAGES HAVE CHANGED.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TODAY. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL
RISES ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK DUE TO A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

Flash Flood Watch 04:08:09.1474010

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM CDT /2 PM EDT/ THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS AND INDIANA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING
AREAS...IN ILLINOIS...BOONE...COOK...DE KALB...DUPAGE...FORD...
GRUNDY...IROQUOIS...KANE...KANKAKEE...KENDALL...LA SALLE...
LAKE IL...LEE...LIVINGSTON...MCHENRY...OGLE...WILL AND
WINNEBAGO. IN INDIANA...BENTON...JASPER...LAKE IN...NEWTON AND
PORTER.

* FROM 1 PM CDT /2 PM EDT/ THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

* AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS APPROACHING 4
INCHES OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWESTERN INDIANA.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS WHERE REPEATED
TRAINING OF STORMS MAY OCCUR.

* AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS THAT ARE CURRENTLY NEAR OR AT FLOOD
STAGE WILL LIKELY RISE TO MODERATE OR MAJOR FLOOD STAGE. HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FLOODING OF LOW LYING URBAN
AREAS. ALSO...RAINFALL RATES AND AMOUNTS MAY EXCEED THE
CAPACITY OF STORM DRAINS...DRAINAGE PONDS AND DRAINAGE DITCHES
ALONG ROADWAYS...LEADING TO FLOODING IN SUBURBAN AREAS AS WELL
AS URBAN AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

&&

Tuesday, April 16, 2013

Flash Flood Watch 21:38:28.7712891

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS AND INDIANA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING
AREAS...IN ILLINOIS...BOONE...COOK...DE KALB...DUPAGE...FORD...
GRUNDY...IROQUOIS...KANE...KANKAKEE...KENDALL...LA SALLE...
LAKE IL...LEE...LIVINGSTON...MCHENRY...OGLE...WILL AND
WINNEBAGO. IN INDIANA...BENTON...JASPER...LAKE IN...NEWTON AND
PORTER.

* FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

* AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS APPROACHING 4
INCHES OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWESTERN INDIANA.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS WHERE REPEATED
TRAINING OF STORMS MAY OCCUR.

* AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS THAT ARE CURRENTLY NEAR OR AT FLOOD
STAGE WILL LIKELY RISE TO MODERATE OR MAJOR FLOOD STAGE. HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FLOODING OF LOW LYING URBAN
AREAS. ALSO...RAINFALL RATES AND AMOUNTS MAY EXCEED THE
CAPACITY OF STORM DRAINS...DRAINAGE PONDS AND DRAINAGE DITCHES
ALONG ROADWAYS...LEADING TO FLOODING IN SUBURBAN AREAS AS WELL
AS URBAN AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

&&

Mesoscale Discussion 20:46:08.7402032

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND CENTRAL IL/WRN INDIANA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 170144Z - 170345Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...CONTINUED ELEVATED CONVECTIVE INCREASE IS EXPECTED ACROSS
SRN AND CENTRAL IL AND ADJACENT WRN INDIANA...THOUGH LIMITED HAIL
THREAT ANTICIPATED SUGGESTS WW MAY NOT BE REQUIRED.

DISCUSSION...RADAR SHOWS STORMS INCREASING ATTM N OF THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT...ACROSS SRN AND CENTRAL IL AND ADJACENT WRN INDIANA.
THE INCREASE IS ONGOING AS A RESULT OF INCREASING WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE STRENGTHENING
LOW-LEVEL JET. WHILE CONTINUED INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE IS
FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...PRIND THAT THE COMBINATION OF
SOMEWHAT LIMITED ELEVATED CAPE /LESS THAN 1500 J/KG/ AND MODEST
CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL STORM INTENSITY.
THUS...WHILE SMALL HAIL IS LIKELY...ANY EXCEEDANCE OF SEVERE
CRITERIA SHOULD BE MARGINAL AND ISOLATED. THUS...ATTM IT APPEARS
THAT A WW WILL LIKELY NOT BE NECESSARY.

..GOSS/CORFIDI.. 04/17/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...

LAT...LON 38728707 38068816 37838964 38569049 39249081 40148931
40678684 40048622 38728707

Flood Statement 19:36:33.6988707

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
THE FOX RIVER AT ALGONQUIN TAILWATER.
* UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING.
* AT 630 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.9 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.5 FEET.
* RECENT ACTIVITY...FLOOD FORECASTS FOR ALGONQUIN WERE MOVED TO THIS
LOCATION ON JULY 5 2011. GAGE ZERO DATUM IS DIFFERENT FROM THE OLD
GAGE LOCATION. FLOOD AND ACTION STAGES HAVE CHANGED.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST RAINFALL
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AND DOES NOT INCLUDE THE EXPECTED HEAVY
RAINFALL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

Flash Flood Watch 16:32:22.5894658

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS AND INDIANA...INCLUDING
THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN ILLINOIS...BOONE...COOK...DE KALB...
DUPAGE...FORD...GRUNDY...IROQUOIS...KANE...KANKAKEE...
KENDALL...LA SALLE...LAKE IL...LEE...LIVINGSTON...MCHENRY...
OGLE...WILL AND WINNEBAGO. IN INDIANA...BENTON...JASPER...LAKE
IN...NEWTON AND PORTER.

* FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

* AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS APPROACHING 4
INCHES OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWESTERN INDIANA. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS WHERE REPEATED TRAINING OF
STORMS MAY OCCUR.

* AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS THAT ARE CURRENTLY NEAR OR AT FLOOD
STAGE WILL LIKELY RISE TO MODERATE OR MAJOR FLOOD STAGE. HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FLOODING OF LOW LYING URBAN AREAS.
ALSO...RAINFALL RATES AND AMOUNTS MAY EXCEED THE CAPACITY OF
STORM DRAINS...DRAINAGE PONDS AND DRAINAGE DITCHES ALONG
ROADWAYS...LEADING TO FLOODING IN SUBURBAN AREAS AS WELL AS
URBAN AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

&&