315 AM CDT
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN AND
NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS THIS MORNING IS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP
NICELY AGAIN THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE LAKE. I WILL
KEEP THE CURRENT FROST ADVISORY AS IS THROUGH 13 UTC THIS
MORNING...AS FROST IS LIKELY OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF MY WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN CWA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER...EXPECT ANOTHER COOL DAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY. I EXPECT ANOTHER COOL NIGHT AGAIN TONIGHT
UNDER THIS SURFACE HIGH. SOME PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE...HOWEVER
HAVE LEFT THE MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MARGINAL AND THE MAIN THREATS WOULD BE IN ISOLATED WELL PROTECTED
AREAS.
A GOOD WARMING TREND IS STILL ON TAP FOR THIS COMING WEEK.
HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE SLOW TO TRANSITION
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS HURRICANE OPHELIA MOVES NORTH ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC AND A BLOCKING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC TEMPORALLY HALTS THE PROGRESS OF THE
EAST COAST UPPER LOW. BECAUSE OF THIS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO
WARM...WITH THE MID TO UPPER 70 TEMPERATURES LIKELY NOT ARRIVING
UNTIL TUESDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD EASTWARD THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE
EAST COAST UPPER LOW MOVES OFFSHORE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS.
THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL PRODUCE SEVERAL WARM AND DRY DAYS
ACROSS THE AREA. IT APPEARS THAT THE WEST COAST TROUGH WILL MAKE
LITTLE EASTWARD PROGRESS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AS THE STRONG
RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS BLOCKS THE FLOW AND BUCKLES THE
MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES INTO CANADA. BECAUSE OF THIS PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LOOK TO BE NEAR ZERO INTO NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL LIKELY HOLD IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WITH
A FEW 80S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...ESPECIALLY BY MID TO LATE
WEEK.
KJB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS.
BMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
VERY QUIET WEATHER FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A LIGHT
NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. WINDS
WILL BE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE...RANGING FROM ROUGHLY 290-020...BUT
SHOULD PREDOMINATELY BE OUT OF THE NNW. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERNIGHT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH...AND MAY GO CALM FOR A PERIOD IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
MONDAY. MODELS SUGGEST THE HIGH MAY REORIENT ITSELF FARTHER TO THE
NORTH ON MONDAY...ALLOWING WINDS TO TURN MORE TO THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER SPEEDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT...LESS THAN 10 KT. BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS.
BMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR.
BEACHLER
&&
.MARINE...
237 PM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING WINDS TO CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE. SOME WINDS OCCASIONALLY IN THE 10 TO 20 KT RANGE ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AT THE FAR SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF
LAKE MICHIGAN...BUT OTHERWISE WINDS 15 KTS OR LESS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE
HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF LAKE MICHIGAN LATE TUESDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH. SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY INCREASE BACK INTO THE 10 TO
20 KT RANGE FOR NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN FOR A PERIOD LATE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS OR WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE
FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
AMPLIFIES AND REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE REGION. BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
