315 AM CDT
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN AND
NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS THIS MORNING IS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP
NICELY AGAIN THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE LAKE. I WILL
KEEP THE CURRENT FROST ADVISORY AS IS THROUGH 13 UTC THIS
MORNING...AS FROST IS LIKELY OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF MY WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN CWA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER...EXPECT ANOTHER COOL DAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY. I EXPECT ANOTHER COOL NIGHT AGAIN TONIGHT
UNDER THIS SURFACE HIGH. SOME PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE...HOWEVER
HAVE LEFT THE MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MARGINAL AND THE MAIN THREATS WOULD BE IN ISOLATED WELL PROTECTED
AREAS.
A GOOD WARMING TREND IS STILL ON TAP FOR THIS COMING WEEK.
HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE SLOW TO TRANSITION
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS HURRICANE OPHELIA MOVES NORTH ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC AND A BLOCKING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC TEMPORALLY HALTS THE PROGRESS OF THE
EAST COAST UPPER LOW. BECAUSE OF THIS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO
WARM...WITH THE MID TO UPPER 70 TEMPERATURES LIKELY NOT ARRIVING
UNTIL TUESDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD EASTWARD THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE
EAST COAST UPPER LOW MOVES OFFSHORE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS.
THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL PRODUCE SEVERAL WARM AND DRY DAYS
ACROSS THE AREA. IT APPEARS THAT THE WEST COAST TROUGH WILL MAKE
LITTLE EASTWARD PROGRESS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AS THE STRONG
RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS BLOCKS THE FLOW AND BUCKLES THE
MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES INTO CANADA. BECAUSE OF THIS PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LOOK TO BE NEAR ZERO INTO NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL LIKELY HOLD IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WITH
A FEW 80S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...ESPECIALLY BY MID TO LATE
WEEK.
KJB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS.
BMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
VERY QUIET WEATHER FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A LIGHT
NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. WINDS
WILL BE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE...RANGING FROM ROUGHLY 290-020...BUT
SHOULD PREDOMINATELY BE OUT OF THE NNW. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERNIGHT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH...AND MAY GO CALM FOR A PERIOD IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
MONDAY. MODELS SUGGEST THE HIGH MAY REORIENT ITSELF FARTHER TO THE
NORTH ON MONDAY...ALLOWING WINDS TO TURN MORE TO THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER SPEEDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT...LESS THAN 10 KT. BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS.
BMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR.
BEACHLER
&&
.MARINE...
257 AM CDT
BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN A MAIN INFLUENCE IN THE
WEATHER FOR TODAY...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
OBSERVATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE LAKE HAVE VARIED
BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER...TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER
ALONG THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE LAKE AT 10 TO 20 KT. WIND
DIRECTIONS HAVE REMAINED FAIRLY CONSISTENT FROM THE NORTH EARLY
THIS MORNING...AND GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THIS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WITH THE CONTINUED NORTH WIND...AND
OPTIMAL FETCH...WAVES REMAIN ELEVATED ALONG THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF
THE LAKE INTO THE ILLINOIS/NORTHWEST NEARSHORE WATERS. WAVE
HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO STEADILY SUBSIDE AT THE SOUTHERN BUOY...AND AS
OF 3 AM CDT WAVES OF JUST OVER 3 FT WERE BEING REPORTED. THIS
WOULD SUGGEST THAT WAVE IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS WOULD REMAIN IN
THE 3 TO 6 FT RANGE. THUS HAVE MAINTAINED THE SMALL CRAFT HEADLINE
FOR THE ILLINOIS/NORTHWEST INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER FEEL THAT BY MIDDAY WAVES SHOULD BE JUST UNDER THE
THRESHOLD FOR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS AND THE HEADLINE WILL BE
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.
WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT BETWEEN 10 AND 15
KT...THEN SLACKEN FURTHER AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD. BY
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST AND
ALLOWS WINDS TO TURN SOUTHERLY...HOWEVER A DRY AND BENIGN WEATHER
PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND
POSSIBLY THROUGH THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
