Mesoscale Discussion 10:03:49.3586671

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF E CNTRL IL...CNTRL INDIANA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 55...

VALID 021602Z - 021730Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 55
CONTINUES.

PORTIONS OF WW HAVE ALREADY BEEN UPGRADED TO A TORNADO WATCH. AREAS
FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR ADDITIONAL WWS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

AS THE DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE ST. LOUIS MO
AREA INTO NORTHEAST INDIANA BETWEEN NOW AND 19-21Z...AN AREA OF
ENHANCED WARM ADVECTION ALONG A NORTHEASTWARD ADVANCING WARM FRONT
TO ITS EAST MAY BECOME OF FOCUS FOR INCREASING SEVERE POTENTIAL
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS MAY IMPACT THE MATTOON/CHARLESTON
AND TERRE HAUTE AREAS AS EARLY AS 18Z-19Z...BEFORE DEVELOPING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. RAPID BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG SHEAR...INCLUDING LARGE
CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS... WILL SUPPORT INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING THE RISK FOR
PARTICULARLY STRONG AND DAMAGING TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO A
CONTINUING RISK FOR LARGE HAIL.

..KERR.. 03/02/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...

LAT...LON 39378869 40168828 40658714 40048614 39148581 38968688
38978824 39378869

Public Severe Weather Outlook 07:27:43.2659437

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
INDIANA...CENTRAL KENTUCKY...AND NORTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG...LONG-TRACK TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF THE
EXTREME SOUTHERN INDIANA...CENTRAL KENTUCKY...AND NORTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

ALABAMA
GEORGIA
ILLINOIS
INDIANA
KENTUCKY
MISSISSIPPI
OHIO
TENNESSEE

ELSEWHERE...SEVERE STORMS AND TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM EAST
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN ALABAMA AND
NORTHERN GEORGIA...NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST OHIO.

MORNING WEATHER DATA CONFIRM A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD FROM ARKANSAS AND TENNESSEE TOWARD THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY...IN ADVANCE OF A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IN MISSOURI. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE TOWARD SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN BY THIS EVENING...ALLOWING THE MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO
SPREAD TO NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER PRIOR TO THE PASSAGE
OF A COLD FRONT. SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG AND IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT BY MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON...AT THE SAME
TIME THE WINDS THROUGH ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME VERY
STRONG. THESE FACTORS WILL RESULT IN A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR
FAST-MOVING TORNADIC STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LONG-TRACK/DAMAGING
TORNADOES IN THE HIGH RISK AREA OF EXTREME SOUTHERN
INDIANA...CENTRAL KENTUCKY...AND NORTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS
AFTERNOON.

A SEPARATE BAND OR TWO OF SEVERE STORMS IS ALSO EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND
ALABAMA INTO NORTHERN GEORGIA...ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES COMPARED TO
FARTHER NORTH IN THE HIGH RISK...BUT MULTIPLE SEVERE STORMS WITH A
FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING THIS POTENTIALLY
VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO
REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO
RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE
WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.

..THOMPSON.. 03/02/2012

Winter Storm Watch 04:43:15.1682505

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING...

* TIMING...RAIN WILL TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS...WITH THE TRANSITION LINE
FROM RAIN TO SNOW SPREADING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THE SNOW SHOULD COME TO AN
END BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

* ACCUMULATIONS...STORM TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE. THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD BE NORTH OF A LINE FROM
POLO...TO KIRKLAND...TO MCHENRY...INCLUDING THE ROCKFORD METRO
AREA.

* HAZARDS...THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS LIKELY TO FALL DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...WHEN SNOWFALL RATES OF UP
TO ONE INCH PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE. ROADS WILL BECOME SNOW
COVERED AND DIFFICULT TO MAINTAIN IF THESE SNOWFALL RATES
MATERIALIZE. TRAVEL ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS WILL BECOME
DIFFICULT AND PERHAPS DANGEROUS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

&&

Public Severe Weather Outlook 03:11:10.1135530

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG...LONG-TRACK TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ALABAMA
NORTHERN GEORGIA
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
SOUTHERN INDIANA
KENTUCKY
EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
SOUTHWEST OHIO
TENNESSEE
WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA

ELSEWHERE...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER OVER KANSAS...OKLAHOMA...AND MISSOURI THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD TO LOWER MICHIGAN BY THIS
EVENING...WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT PROGRESSES EASTWARD INTO THE
OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS. MOISTURE WILL SPREAD QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD
FROM THE SOUTHERN STATES TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY THIS AFTERNOON IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT...PROVIDING THE FUEL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION...WINDS AND ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK
AREA...SETTING THE STAGE FOR LONG-LIVED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

THE MOST DANGEROUS TORNADO RISK AREA IS EXPECTED FROM MIDDLE AND
EASTERN TENNESSEE NORTHWARD ACROSS KENTUCKY TO THE OHIO RIVER THIS
AFTERNOON...WHERE A FEW LONG-TRACK/DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. FARTHER SOUTH
INTO MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT
IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. THESE STORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA AND NORTHERN GEORGIA THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH AN ACCOMPANYING RISK FOR TORNADOES...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL.

STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING THIS DEVELOPING
SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE
WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA
WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER
TODAY.

..THOMPSON.. 03/02/2012

Winter Storm Watch 21:02:14.7497666

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING.

* TIMING...RAIN WILL TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES OVERNIGHT.

* ACCUMULATIONS...STORM TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE.

* HAZARDS...THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS LIKELY TO FALL FROM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...WHEN SNOWFALL RATES OF
UP TO ONE INCH PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE. ROADS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED
AND DIFFICULT TO MAINTAIN IF THESE SNOWFALL RATES MATERIALIZE.
TRAVEL ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS WILL BECOME DIFFICULT AND
PERHAPS DANGEROUS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

&&

Special Weather Statement 16:10:02.5761998

...A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

A POTENT STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO SOUTHWESTERN MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. ALTHOUGH THE PRECIPITATION MAY INITIALLY BEGIN AS
RAIN...IT APPEARS THAT COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD PORTIONS OF THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING THE RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. AS THIS TRANSITION TO SNOW OCCURS...THERE
COULD BE A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR
NORTHERN ILLINOIS LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW...THE SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE
QUICKLY...LEADING TO HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...DUE TO
THE COMPLEXITY OF THE STORM SYSTEM...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON WHERE
THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR.

Flood Potential Outlook 10:34:53.3771207

...2012 SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK NUMBER 2...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR STREAMS WITHIN THE NWS CHICAGO HYDROLOGIC
SERVICE AREA...WHICH INCLUDES ILLINOIS RIVER TRIBUTARIES IN
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. IT INCLUDES THE ILLINOIS
RIVER DOWN TO LA SALLE. IT ALSO INCLUDES STREAMS WITHIN THE ROCK
RIVER BASIN IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND THE ROCK RIVER FROM
ROCKTON DOWN TO DIXON ILLINOIS. THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TIME PERIOD
FROM MARCH THROUGH EARLY JUNE.

...OUTLOOK BRIEF SUMMARY...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE OCCURRED IN THE FLOOD POTENTIAL SINCE
THE FIRST OUTLOOK.

THIS WINTER HAS BEEN NOTED FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT SNOW. BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AT THE TIME THIS
OUTLOOK WAS RELEASED...THE RISK FOR MINOR FLOODING IS BELOW
NORMAL FOR STREAMS IN THE ROCK RIVER BASIN IN ILLINOIS. THE RISK FOR
MINOR FLOODING RANGES FROM NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL WITHIN
PORTIONS OF THE KANKAKEE RIVER BASIN. ELSEWHERE FOR TRIBUTARIES
WITHIN THE UPPER ILLINOIS BASIN...THE RISK FOR MINOR FLOODING IS
NEAR NORMAL. THE RISK FOR MINOR FLOODING ON THE ILLINOIS RIVER
MAINSTEM FROM MORRIS TO LA SALLE IS NEAR NORMAL. THE AMOUNT OF
RAINFALL OR ADDITIONAL SNOW AND SUBSEQUENT SNOWMELT IN THE COMING
WEEKS WILL DETERMINE THE SEVERITY OF ANY FUTURE FLOODING.

THIS SPRING OUTLOOK IS BASED ON HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS INCLUDING THE
CURRENT SOIL MOISTURE...SNOWPACK...AND STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS AT THE
TIME OF ISSUANCE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS CAN
CHANGE RAPIDLY DURING LATE WINTER AND EARLY SPRING. THESE OUTLOOKS
ARE ISSUED EACH LATE WINTER AND EARLY SPRING IN ADDITION TO THE 7
DAY RIVER FORECASTS THAT ARE ISSUED WHEN RIVER FORECAST LOCATIONS
ARE IN FLOOD OR ARE FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.

...CURRENT SNOW COVER AND LIQUID WATER EQUIVALENT...
A LATE WINTER STORM DEPOSITED BETWEEN 5 AND 10 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES IN ILLINOIS FEBRUARY 23 AND 24. THE
GREATEST SNOW DEPTHS WERE IN THE UPPER FOX...UPPER DES PLAINES...AND
UPPER ROCK RIVER WATERSHEDS. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS WERE BETWEEN 0.5
AND 1 INCH. RAIN AND WARMER TEMPERATURES HAVE SINCE MELTED OFF THE
MAJORITY OF THAT SNOW WITH ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS REMAINING IN SHELTERED
AREAS.

...PAST PRECIPITATION AND SOIL CONDITIONS...
PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PAST FALL ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND
NORTHWEST INDIANA WAS NEAR NORMAL AND TEMPERATURES AVERAGED ABOVE
NORMAL. THIS PAST WINTER HAS SEEN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
LESS THAN NORMAL SNOWFALL...ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION WAS NEAR NORMAL
DUE TO SEVERAL RAIN EVENTS. SOIL MOISTURE WAS NEAR NORMAL.

...RIVER CONDITIONS...
STREAMFLOW ON AREA RIVERS WAS NEAR NORMAL ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS
AND NORTHWEST INDIANA.

NWS CHICAGO RIVER ICE SPOTTERS REPORTED THAT NO ICE WAS PRESENT ON
AREA STREAMS AS OF FEB 27. NO ICE JAM FLOODING ISSUES HAVE BEEN
EXPERIENCED THIS PAST WINTER.

...WEATHER OUTLOOKS...
THE SIX TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID MARCH 4 TO MARCH 9 INDICATES THAT
CONDITIONS MAY TREND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND
TEMPERATURES. THE LONG RANGE OUTLOOK FOR MARCH INDICATES
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION.

...FLOOD POTENTIAL SUMMARY...
BASED ON THE CURRENT SOIL MOISTURE...CURRENT STREAMFLOW...FROST
DEPTHS...SNOWPACK CONDITIONS...THE RISK FOR MINOR FLOODING IS
BELOW NORMAL FOR STREAMS IN THE ROCK RIVER BASIN IN
ILLINOIS. THE RISK FOR MINOR FLOODING RANGES FROM NEAR NORMAL TO
ABOVE NORMAL WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE KANKAKEE RIVER BASIN. ELSEWHERE
FOR TRIBUTARIES WITHIN THE UPPER ILLINOIS BASIN...THE RISK FOR MINOR
FLOODING IS NEAR NORMAL. THE RISK FOR MINOR FLOODING ON THE ILLINOIS
MAINSTEM FROM MORRIS TO LA SALLE IS NEAR NORMAL. THE AMOUNT OF
RAINFALL OR ADDITIONAL SNOW AND SUBSEQUENT SNOWMELT IN THE COMING
WEEKS WILL DETERMINE THE SEVERITY OF ANY FUTURE FLOODING.

...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR
FLOODING...AND DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL OF REACHING FLOOD STAGE...

...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
THE VALUES IN THE TABLE BELOW ARE VALID 3/5/2012 TO 6/3/2012.

-----------FLOOD STAGE----------- DEPARTURE
LOCATION MINOR MODERATE MAJOR FROM NORMAL
STG PCT STG PCT STG PCT OF REACHING
FLOOD STAGE
PECATONICA RIVER
SHIRLAND IL 12.0 19% 15.0 --- 17.0 --- 16% LESS
ROCK RIVER
ROCKTON IL 10.0 13% 11.0 8% 14.0 --- 16% LESS
LATHAM PARK IL 10.0 11% 11.0 6% 14.0 --- 13% LESS
KISHWAUKEE RIVER
BELVIDERE IL 9.0 8% 11.0 1% 12.0 1% NEAR NORMAL
S BR KISHWAUKEE
DEKALB IL 10.0 4% 11.0 1% 12.5 --- NEAR NORMAL
KISHWAUKEE RIVER
PERRYVILLE IL 12.0 27% 18.0 1% 22.0 --- NEAR NORMAL
ROCK RIVER
BYRON IL 13.0 11% 16.0 1% 18.0 1% NEAR NORMAL
DIXON IL 16.0 6% 18.0 4% 20.0 3% 9% LESS
KANKAKEE RIVER
DUNNS BRIDGE IN 10.0 23% 12.0 --- 13.0 --- 6% LESS
KOUTS IN 11.0 24% 13.0 --- 14.0 --- NEAR NORMAL
SHELBY IN 9.0 82% 11.0 31% 12.5 8% NEAR NORMAL
MOMENCE IL 5.0 23% 6.5 9% 9.0 1% 11% LESS
WILMINGTON IL 6.5 13% 8.0 6% 10.0 1% NEAR NORMAL
IROQUOIS RIVER
RENSSELAER IN 12.0 29% 14.0 6% 15.0 4% 9% LESS
FORESMAN IN 18.0 19% 22.0 3% 24.0 --- NEAR NORMAL
IROQUOIS IL 18.0 47% 24.0 3% 25.0 1% NEAR NORMAL
CHEBANSE IL 16.0 13% 18.0 4% 20.0 3% NEAR NORMAL
SUGAR CREEK
MILFORD IL 18.0 42% 22.0 9% 26.0 3% NEAR NORMAL
DES PLAINES RIVER
RUSSELL IL 7.0 55% 9.0 1% 10.0 1% NEAR NORMAL
GURNEE IL 7.0 29% 9.0 3% 11.0 --- NEAR NORMAL
LINCOLNSHIRE IL 11.0 14% 14.0 3% 15.5 1% NEAR NORMAL
DES PLAINES IL 5.0 19% 8.0 --- 9.0 --- NEAR NORMAL
RIVERSIDE IL 7.0 23% 8.0 4% 9.0 --- NEAR NORMAL
ROMEOVILLE IL 12.5 34% 13.0 8% 13.5 --- NEAR NORMAL
E BR DUPAGE RIVER
BOLINGBROOK IL 19.5 37% 21.0 3% 23.0 --- NEAR NORMAL
DU PAGE RIVER
SHOREWOOD IL 6.5 9% 8.0 --- 10.0 --- NEAR NORMAL
MAZON RIVER
COAL CITY IL 12.0 9% 14.0 --- 17.0 --- 6% LESS
FOX RIVER
ALGONQUIN TW 9.5 36% 10.5 14% 12.0 11% 8% LESS
MONTGOMERY IL 13.0 41% 14.0 6% 15.0 --- 7% LESS
DAYTON IL 12.0 32% 14.0 11% 24.0 --- 10% LESS
VERMILION RIVER
PONTIAC IL 14.0 11% 15.0 8% 18.0 --- 6% LESS
LEONORE IL 16.0 36% 21.0 4% 26.0 --- NEAR NORMAL
THORN CREEK
THORNTON IL 10.0 18% 15.0 --- 16.0 --- 6% LESS
LITTLE CALUMET R
MUNSTER IN 12.0 31% 14.0 14% 17.0 3% 9% LESS
SOUTH HOLLAND IL 16.5 --- 18.0 --- 20.0 --- NA
HART DITCH
DYER IN 12.0 3% 13.0 3% 14.0 --- NEAR NORMAL
ILLINOIS RIVER
MORRIS IL 16.0 29% 18.0 18% 22.0 3% 9% LESS
OTTAWA IL 463.0 23% 466.0 11% 469.0 3% 9% LESS
LA SALLE IL 20.0 70% 27.0 9% 31.0 1% NEAR NORMAL

IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE
THE CHANCE THAT A LOCATION ON A RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED
STAGE LEVELS DURING THE INDICATED PERIOD.

FOR EXAMPLE: THE KANKAKEE RIVER AT WILMINGTON HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF
6.5 FEET. THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE THE RIVER WILL RISE TO 5.1
FEET OR ABOVE.

LOCATION FS (FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
-------- ------- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
KANKAKEE RIVER
DUNNS BRIDGE 10.0 7.1 8.0 8.4 8.7 9.0 9.5 9.7 10.2 10.5
KOUTS 11.0 8.3 9.1 9.6 9.9 10.1 10.7 10.8 11.3 11.6
SHELBY 9.0 8.1 9.3 9.5 10.0 10.4 10.8 11.0 11.5 12.2
MOMENCE 5.0 3.3 3.5 3.8 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.9 5.2 6.8
WILMINGTON 6.5 3.1 3.8 4.5 4.8 5.1 5.4 5.6 6.0 6.9

SUGAR CREEK
MILFORD 18.0 13.1 16.5 17.1 17.3 17.6 18.1 19.2 20.0 22.1

IROQUOIS RIVER
RENSSELAER 12.0 8.5 9.6 10.1 11.0 11.3 11.6 12.0 12.6 13.8
FORESMAN 18.0 12.9 14.0 14.5 15.3 16.3 16.5 17.5 18.1 19.0
IROQUOIS 18.0 12.9 15.0 15.6 16.5 17.8 19.1 20.6 21.2 22.1
CHEBANSE 16.0 8.8 9.4 10.3 11.0 12.0 12.4 13.6 15.1 16.4

DES PLAINES RIVER
RUSSELL 7.0 5.8 6.2 6.5 7.0 7.2 7.3 7.5 7.6 7.9
GURNEE 7.0 4.2 4.6 4.9 5.3 5.7 6.5 7.0 7.4 7.8
DES PLAINES 5.0 1.7 2.0 2.2 2.5 2.9 3.5 4.3 5.0 6.5
LINCOLNSHIRE 12.5 8.9 9.4 9.7 10.1 10.4 11.2 11.9 12.2 13.1
RIVERSIDE 7.0 3.8 4.3 4.9 5.3 5.9 6.3 6.5 7.0 7.3

FOX RIVER
ALGONQUIN TAILW 9.5 7.5 7.9 8.2 8.7 9.0 9.4 9.7 10.3 12.4
MONTGOMERY 13.0 12.2 12.5 12.6 12.7 12.9 13.0 13.2 13.4 13.9
DAYTON 12.0 8.2 9.2 9.9 10.9 11.4 11.6 12.3 12.8 14.5

EAST BR DU PAGE RIVER
BOLINGBROOK 19.5 17.9 18.3 18.6 18.8 19.2 19.4 19.8 20.1 20.5

DU PAGE RIVER
SHOREWOOD 6.5 4.1 4.5 4.8 5.1 5.3 5.5 5.9 6.1 6.5

MAZON RIVER
COAL CITY 12.0 4.2 5.9 6.8 7.9 9.0 9.7 10.2 10.8 12.5

VERMILION RIVER
PONTIAC 14.0 5.7 6.4 7.3 8.3 9.3 9.9 12.0 13.3 14.8
LEONORE 16.0 8.6 9.7 11.6 12.7 13.8 15.5 16.8 17.9 20.1

THORN CREEK
THORNTON 10.0 5.0 5.8 6.6 7.0 7.7 8.3 9.0 9.9 11.2

HART DITCH
DYER 12.0 4.2 4.5 4.9 5.3 5.7 6.1 6.6 7.1 7.7

LITTLE CALUMET RIVER
MUNSTER 12.0 9.2 9.7 10.2 10.6 10.9 11.5 12.1 12.8 14.6
SOUTH HOLLAND 16.5 9.5 10.7 11.3 11.8 12.1 12.8 13.5 14.0 14.7

ILLINOIS RIVER
MORRIS 16.0 8.1 10.1 12.7 13.5 14.2 15.1 16.2 17.7 20.0
OTTAWA 463.0

LA SALLE 20.0 14.8 17.7 20.4 21.9 22.8 23.1 24.1 25.2 27.7

KISHWAUKEE RIVER
BELVIDERE 9.0 3.7 4.1 4.7 5.1 5.9 6.5 7.0 8.5 9.0
PERRYVILLE 12.0 8.2 8.8 9.5 10.0 10.5 11.1 11.8 12.3 13.7

SOUTH BRANCH KISHWAUKEE RIVER
DE KALB 10.0 4.8 5.4 5.9 6.7 6.9 7.7 8.4 9.1 9.6

ROCK RIVER
ROCKTON 10.0 5.4 5.7 6.2 6.5 7.0 8.0 8.7 9.5 10.9
LATHAM PARK 10.0 5.8 5.9 6.4 6.6 7.1 7.9 8.5 9.2 10.5
ROCKFORD 9.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.6 3.8 4.0 4.7
BYRON 13.0 8.0 8.5 8.9 9.2 9.9 10.5 11.2 12.2 13.2
DIXON 16.0 10.3 10.7 11.1 11.4 12.1 12.6 13.2 14.3 15.4

PECATONICA RIVER
SHIRLAND 12.0 8.0 8.2 8.6 9.1 9.8 10.5 11.5 12.0 13.2

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO OFFICE IN ROMEOVILLE ISSUES LONG
RANGE AHPS OUTLOOKS FOR ALL RIVER FORECAST LOCATIONS. THIS PRODUCT IS
UPDATED MONTHLY AROUND MID-MONTH. THESE OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED IN
ADDITION TO THE 5 DAY RIVER FORECASTS THAT ARE ISSUED WHEN RIVER
FORECAST LOCATIONS ARE IN FLOOD OR FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE.

THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER...
SOIL MOISTURE...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION.

BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILISTIC NUMBERS...THE LEVEL
OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE
DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE.

VISIT OUR WEB PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO FOR MORE WEATHER AND RIVER
INFORMATION INCLUDING GRAPHS OF PROBABILISTIC RIVER OUTLOOKS.

...FLOOD TERMINOLOGY...

MINOR FLOODING IS USED TO INDICATE MINIMAL OR NO PROPERTY
DAMAGE. HOWEVER SOME PUBLIC INCONVENIENCE IS POSSIBLE.

MODERATE FLOODING IS USED TO INDICATE THE INUNDATION OF SECONDARY
ROADS. TRANSFER TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY BE NECESSARY TO SAVE
PROPERTY. SOME EVACUATIONS MAY BE REQUIRED.

MAJOR FLOODING IS USED TO INDICATE EXTENSIVE INUNDATION AND PROPERTY
DAMAGE USUALLY CHARACTERIZED BY EVACUATION OF PEOPLE AND LIVESTOCK
AND CLOSURE OF BOTH PRIMARY AND SECONDARY ROADS.

VISIT OUR WEB PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO FOR MORE WEATHER AND RIVER
INFORMATION INCLUDING GRAPHS OF PROBABILISTIC RIVER OUTLOOKS.

THIS WILL BE THE LAST SCHEDULED OUTLOOK. ANOTHER OUTLOOK MAY BE
ISSUED ON MARCH 22 IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

NATIONAL FLOOD AWARENESS WEEK WILL BE MARCH 12 TO MARCH 16 2012.