ACUS11 KWNS 100059
SWOMCD
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0857
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0758 PM CDT THU JUN 09 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN WI...FAR ERN IA...AND NRN/CNTRL IL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 100058Z - 100300Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WW ISSUANCE IS
UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION...RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE
CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MCD AREA ALONG AND N OF A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAINLY IN ASSOCIATION WITH MODESTLY
STRENGTHENING SWLY WINDS ON THE NOSE OF A LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS
NEB/IA. THE 00Z SOUNDING FROM DVN SHOWS A STRONGLY VEERING WIND
PROFILE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER...WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO 35-40 KT OF
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR ACROSS THE MCD REGION. INITIAL CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY MAY BE NEAR-SFC BASED...BUT SHOULD BECOME ELEVATED QUICKLY
OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. MODESTLY
STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH A MOIST LOW-LEVEL
AIRMASS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MUCAPE GENERALLY IN THE 500-1500 J/KG
RANGE ACROSS SRN WI INTO NRN IL. THIS SUFFICIENT COMBINATION OF
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SHOULD ALLOW FOR ONGOING/ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP SOME MID-LEVEL ROTATION AND POSE MAINLY AN ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL RISK THROUGH THE EVENING.
..GLEASON/CORFIDI.. 06/10/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...
LAT...LON 43298955 42558823 41838764 40428759 39968800 40108912
41169018 42069064 42819062 43199017 43298955
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